Posted on: April 19, 2011 1:12 pm
The Seattle Seahawks held a pre-draft press conference yesterday with general manager John Schneider fielding questions from the local media.
Among the topics he addressed was the report from Peter King of Sports Illustrated that "Seattle wants to trade down so bad from 25 that John Schneider can taste it."
Rather than dismiss it - as many general managers would do at this point in the cloak and dagger pre-draft season, Schneider expanded upon it, explaing that, "Personally, I’d like to move back. I have confidence in our ability in those middle rounds to do some good stuff.”
Presumably, the Seahawks would like to move down to recoup the third round pick they gave up last year for the rights to quarterback Charlie Whitehurst.
And therein lies the irony of the situation.
It is the fact that Whitehurst is the only quarterback currently on the Seattle roster that makes it unlikely that Seattle will look to trade down too far on draft day, if they are able to land a deal in the first place. As I pointed out in a previous blog post, teams are expecting the contract rules to remain the same for this draft as they have been in the past. Now, this could change when a new CBA is signed, but teams generally go by the rules that have been in place, rather than projecting the new rules that could occur.
That means that the maximum number of years in a contract for a first round pick drafted between No. 16 and No. 32 is a five year deal. Players drafted No. 33 or later, however, can only receive a four-year contract.
Should Seattle be attempting to trade down with the hopes of landing a quarterback -- as some believe to be the case -- they won't want to trade out of the first round. The value of the extra year of the rookie deal is simply too valuable -- especially when dealing with a quarterback likely to spend at least the first year of the deal on the sideline.
It is the same reason why some of the teams in the top of the second round who may want to take a quarterback -- the Bills, Bengals, Cardinals, Titans, 49ers, Jaguars, etc. -- may ultimately have to trade up into the late first round to take the player who might have been available to them if they'd stayed put. In this wacky year, teams aren't just competing against each other for the rights to players, they want the longer, potentially cheaper contract for grooming their quarterbacks of the future.
Posted on: April 4, 2010 11:16 am
The Washington Redskins have become a popular candidate to present the Rams with a trade package to move up to the No. 1 pick and select quarterback Sam Bradford if the conjecture of talk radio and the internet is to be believed.
And while the theory stands up in some ways (owner Daniel Snyder is prone to splashy moves and Jason Campbell being signed for only one more year chief among them), the most basic element of any deal is lacking.
The Redskins simply lack the ammunition to make this trade happen.
Washington owns only five picks in the 2010 draft, tied with Baltimore and Chicago with the least picks of any team. They have two very high picks -- the 4th and 37th overall -- but otherwise only have their 4th, 5th and 7th round picks.
According to an NFL Draft trade chart given to me years ago by an NFL executive, the first pick is worth 3000 points. In a year such as this one, where there is clear cut top quarterback likely to be the first pick, some executives feel the pick is worth even more. Washington's 4th overall pick is worth 1800 points. The 37th overall is worth 530. Washington's 4th (103rd overall) is worth 88 points. Their 5th (135th overall) is worth 38.5. Their 7th (211th overall) is worth only 8 points. The collective value of the Redskins' five picks this year is only 2,464.5.
Barring the club packaging all of their picks in a Mike Ditka-loves-Rick Williams type scenario, the Redskins would have to trade future picks as part of the deal, at least their 2011 second round pick.
Considering the varied needs of this team, giving up a hoard of picks in 2010 or in the future simply doesn't make sense -- which is why it won't happen.
Posted on: April 2, 2009 10:58 pm
I believe the opposite.
In doing what many veteran league officials say is the cardinal sin of the NFL -- losing a young, franchise quarterback -- the Broncos have put themselves in the tougher position.
If they take full advantage of the two first round and third round picks they received for Cutler, perhaps this move doesn't come back to haunt them.
History is on their side in some ways, as the last trades to involve this many high picks occurred when the Saints and Vikings essentially traded their futures for the rights to Ricky Williams and Herschel Walker. I don't have to tell you how those trades turned out.
In reality, however, the marginal success rate of first round picks makes this quite the gamble on the Broncos' part. They had an established quarterback. Now, they're likely to enter next season with their season riding on the erratic play of Kyle Orton and Chris Simms.
With five picks now within the top 84, Josh McDaniel is building this team like the Patriots have done -- via the draft. The Broncos have given themselves the flexibility to do whatever they'd like in this draft and an awful lot of flexibility in next year's, as well.
They'll need it, because in many ways, they're starting from scratch.
Posted on: March 31, 2009 11:48 pm
Edited on: March 31, 2009 11:55 pm
On the day the young quarterback I've often compared to Jay Cutler did his best to earn the first selection of the 2009 draft, Jay Cutler, himself, threw his own hat into the fray.
Denver Bronco team owner Pat Bowlen released a statement to the media today indicating that conversations with Cutler's agent, James "Bus" Cook has left the Broncos' brass with the understanding "that Jay no longer has any desire to play for the Denver Broncos."
Rather than continue to try and appease the angry quarterback, however, Bowlen went on to state, "We will begin discussions with other teams in an effort to accommodate his request to be traded."
Each of the teams rumored to be interested in drafting a quarterback in the first round -- namely the Lions, Rams, Seahawks, Browns, Jaguars, 49ers, Redskins, Jets, Bears, and Bucs -- are thought to be potentially interested. Of this group, St. Louis, Seattle, Jacksonville, Washington and Chicago have all made the playoffs under their current starting quarterback, and thus, while potentially interested in a young passer to groom, won't necessarily be as interested in adding a veteran -- even one as talented as Cutler -- therefore, leaving the Lions, Browns, 49ers, Jets, and Bucs as the most obvious candidates for the Pro Bowl quarterback.
The going rate for a quarterback of Cutler's age and skills would be at least a first round pick; likely with extra compensation to be had based on Cutler or his new team's performance in 2009.
The Bucs, with only one first day pick -- the 19th overall -- would appear to be in the worst position to bargain of these four teams, as each of the others have their 1st and 2nd round picks in which to barter...
Posted on: March 1, 2009 12:48 pm
Much is being made of the fact that the Patriots accepted only a second round pick, albeit the 34th overall, for quarterback Matt Cassel and versatile, veteran linebacker Mike Vrabel. Many are justifiably wondering why the Patriots were unable to wrestle away a first round pick for Cassel, especially considering Vrabel's added value. Some league insiders suggested that perhaps the Patriots valued the Chiefs' second round pick (34th overall) to their first (3rd overall).
While this initially sounds crazy -- How could they not WANT the higher pick? -- it fits with the philosophy in which the Patriots have built their dynasty. Re-stocking through "lower" picks, rather than investing tens of millions of dollars into unproven rookies.
Certainly there was talent likely to be available at #3 that would have helped New England... Aaron Curry could have stepped in at linebacker, Jason Smith or Eugene Monroe could have solidified the offensive line...
Considering the draft value (and more importantly, the cap value) of the players likely to be available at #34, however, the Patriots are in position to address their greatest areas of concern -- outside linebacker and cornerback -- at a point of supreme value, as the most teams' boards are already shaping up, there will be a run on outside linebackers and cornerbacks to end the first round and begin the second...
The tens of millions of dollars difference it will take in signing a Clint Sintim, Paul Kruger, or D.J. Moore at the top of the second rather than Curry, Smith, or Monroe at the top is one of the many reasons the Patriots continue to operate as trend-setters in the NFL.
(It is also further evidence of just how ridiculous and prohibitive the cost of high first round picks have become...)