Posted on: March 12, 2010 6:17 pm
 

Schmolik Bubble Watch (Updated 3/12/10 6pm)

Schmolik Bubble Watch

Hello, college basketball fans!

Updated: March 12, 2010 6pm

It's time for Schmolik's Bubble Watch. For many teams, this is a make or break week. Bubble Watch analyzes who is on the bubble and their chances of making the NCAA's.

First, teams that I feel are locks for the tournament. As always, I reserve the right to change my mind during the week. Automatic Bids not included.

ACC: Duke, Maryland, Clemson, Florida State, Wake Forest
A-10: Temple, Xavier, Richmond
Big East: Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame
Big 10: Ohio State, Purdue, Michigan State, Wisconsin
Big 12: Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma State, Missouri
C-USA: Texas El Paso
MWC: New Mexico, Brigham Young, UNLV
Pac 10: California
SEC: Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee
WAC: Utah State
WCC: Gonzaga

Total # Locks: 35 (Big East and Big 12 Champs guaranteed from the “locks”)
Minimum # At Large Locks: 27
Automatic Bids: 31
Remaining Bids: 7
As of Now: 11 teams in contention. I may return some teams to consideration between now and Sunday.

Stats courtesy of CBSSports.com. Rankings are as of March 12, 2010 morning.

Thursday/Early Friday Update: Butler now automatic bid, Marquette, Notre Dame, Utah State, UNLV added to locks. Arizona State, Seton Hall, South Florida removed.

Friday Update: Mississippi removed from consideration. Kent State added to bubble list.

RPI/ Conf or Non Conf RPI: Good RPI is 30's or higher, marginal is 40's, poor is 50's or below.
*Last 10 games: 7-3 or better is a strength, 5-5 or lower a weakness.
SOS/Non Conf SOS: Good is top 20, bad is below 100.
Top 25 games: Strength: Two or more, Weakness: Zero
Top 50 games: Strength: Four or more, Weakness: One or fewer
Bad losses: Weakness: Home losses to teams below 100 in RPI, Loss to teams below 200 in RPI

* CBSSports.com lists “Last 10” in their RPI data. Although the last 10 games or last 12 games has been removed as an official criteria, the official bracket procedures state “chronological results” are considered so a poor or strong finish may still matter.

Bubble Teams (In/Out as of Last Schmolik 64 Update)

ACC

Virginia Tech (In)

Strengths: Conference RPI (32), 6-4 in last 10 (after today’s loss), Bubble wins: at Georgia Tech
Weaknesses: RPI: 52, Non Conf RPI (98), Non Conf SOS (339!), no Top 25 wins

Tournament Result: Lost ACC 1st round game to Miami (seeded 12th in conference).

Outlook: As of Friday AM, Virginia Tech’s RPI was 52. Expect it to drop after losing to Miami. Great ACC profile (although loss to Miami hurts), horrible non conference profile. If the Selection Committee wishes to make a statement about non conference scheduling, look for the Hokies to get the shaft. If Georgia Tech upsets Miami, don’t be surprised if Georgia Tech passes Virginia Tech in the ACC pecking order.

Georgia Tech (In)

Strengths: Four Top 50 wins (including Duke), Overall SOS (20)

Weaknesses: 4-6 in last 10 games, Non Conf SOS (148), Bubble Losses (Home vs Virginia Tech, Neutral vs Dayton), Conference Record (7-9), although still in Top 50 in Conference RPI

Should Be In If: They beat Maryland, making the ACC SF.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose to Maryland in the ACC QF.

Outlook: RPI numbers are respectable, but sub .500 conference record could haunt them. Then again, given the bad losses by Wake Forest and Clemson on Thursday, at least give Georgia Tech for winning a game (vs. North Carolina and I’d imagine a bunch of rowdy Tar Heel fans).

Atlantic 10

Rhode Island (Out)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (5!), Bubble Wins: at Dayton, Charlotte (if you consider them a bubble team)

Weaknesses: Conf RPI (104), 5-5 in last 10 games, no top 25 wins, only one top 50 win

Should Be In If: They make the A-10 final, beating Temple
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose to Temple

Outlook: If the A-10 will get another at large bid, it will be Rhode Island. They have the highest RPI, a terrific non conference RPI, and wins over Dayton and Charlotte. If a fourth at large comes from the A-10, you would expect the Rams to be that team.

Dayton (Out)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (14), Non Conf SOS (20)

Weaknesses: RPI (52), Conf RPI (89), 5-5 in last 10 games

Should Be In If: They make the A-10 final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the A-10 SF, beating Xavier.

Outlook: Needs to beat Xavier to have any chance, still would have a hard time justifying a bid over Rhode Island (who beat Dayton at Dayton).

Big East

No Bubble Teams

Big 10

Illinois (Out)

Strengths: Four Top 25 wins (Vanderbilt, Michigan State, at Wisconsin, vs Wisconsin in Big 10 tournament)
Weaknesses: RPI (75), Non Conf RPI (124), Non Conf SOS (105), 5-5 in last 10 games (including 5 of last 7)

Should Be In If: They make the Big 10 final, beating Ohio State
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose.

Outlook: Clearly have only one strength (quality wins), but it’s the one that the NCAA (at least according to almost everyone in the media) seems to like the most and teams have in the past gotten away with poor RPI numbers and poor finishes if they have a few quality wins. I can’t imagine Illinois gets in with an RPI in the 70’s. Let’s see how much the RPI goes up after beating Wisconsin and lose to Ohio State. If it gets into the mid 60’s, they may get some consideration.

Big 12
No Bubble Teams

Conf USA

No Bubble Teams

MWC

San Diego State (In)

Strengths: RPI (32), Non Conf RPI (38), 8-2 in last 10 games

Weaknesses: Non Conf SOS (125), Bubble Loss: at Arizona State

Should Be In If: Makes the MWC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses in the MWC SF

Outlook: With Arizona State, UAB, Memphis, and Kent State choking on Thursday, I find it ridiculous for anyone to say this is not a tournament team. I did say they would be comfortably in if they make the final but I’ll leave them on the bubble to be consistent with earlier this week. The loss by Arizona State in the Pac 10 tournament probably widens the gap between the two so the head to head loss shouldn’t be a factor anymore.

Pac 10

Washington (In)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (23), 8-2 in last 10 games, Two top 25 wins (Texas A&M, California)

Weaknesses: Conf RPI (67), Bad Loss: Home to Oregon

Should Be In If: Probably can’t be sure unless they win it all.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the Pac 10 final.

Outlook: Well the path should be clearer for Washington to make the final (then again if Stanford beat ASU, they can certainly beat Washington). In some ways, Washington had a better profile than the Sun Devils anyway (Washington beat Cal and Texas A&M). It’s pretty clear if Washington makes the final they will be considered the 2nd best Pac 10 team and if more bubble teams trip on their feet this week, you have to say making the final and losing to Berkeley will be enough for the Huskies (no, not the U Conn Huskies).

SEC

Florida (In)

Strengths:  Conference RPI (31), Bubble Wins (Mississippi State), Two Top 25 wins (Michigan State, Tennessee)

Weaknesses: RPI (51), Non Conf RPI (77), Non Conf SOS (106), 5-5 in last 10 games, Bad Loss: Home vs South Alabama

Should Be In If: Makes the SEC SF and loses to Vanderbilt or makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses next game to Mississippi State or SF to Mississippi

Outlook: Losing to either of the Mississippi schools would hurt their chances as it gives either a chance to pass them in the SEC pecking order.

Mississippi State (Out)

Strengths: Bubble Wins: Sweep over Mississippi

Weaknesses: RPI (68), Conf RPI (58), Non Conf RPI (70), Non Conf SOS (211), 5-5 in last 10 games, no top 25 wins, Bubble loss: at Florida, Bad Loss: Home vs Rider

Should Be In If: Makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Beats Florida

Outlook: I’ll leave them in for now even though their only strength is their sweep over Ole Miss, which I feel removed themselves from consideration after losing to Tennessee because their profile probably improves if they beat Florida. If they lose to Florida, they will likely fall out.

Other


Wichita State (Out)

Strengths: Conf RPI (37)
Weaknesses: Just one top 50 win (Northern Iowa), Non Conf RPI (86), Non Conf SOS (288!), Bad losses (at Evansville)

Tournament Result: Lost to Northern Iowa in MVC final

Outlook: Honestly only a really weak bubble is keeping them in the discussion. Finishing 2nd in the MVC and beating Northern Iowa is probably the only positive they have and that non conference SOS is terrible. They don’t even have “strong finish” in their basket. Should a lot of bubble teams win this week, I will likely take them off the bubble list. So far so good for the Shockers.

Kent State (In because of automatic bid)

Strengths: Non Conf SOS (26), 8-2 in last 10 games, regular season MAC champion, Bubble Win: UAB (if they are still a bubble team)
Weaknesses: Conf RPI (56), No top 25 wins, one top 50 win, Bad losses: Home vs Green Bay, Home vs Bowling Green

Tournament Road: Lost to Ohio in MAC QF’s (1st game played).
Outlook: I’m running out of teams here so I added them. They did win the regular season MAC title. The only team in the top 54 (as of Friday) that is not either in automatically, a lock, or a bubble team is UAB, who Kent State beat. I thought they suffered a bad loss. Ohio’s RPI was over 100 but just barely. It didn’t hurt their overall RPI as much as I thought. I think they are a long shot but a few more chokers and maybe they can still make it in.

Teams who I feel can play themselves into the tournament with a good week (list is not all inclusive). Teams previously listed that were eliminated have been removed.Big 10: Minnesota

Schmolik



Category: NCAAB
Tags: Bubble, Schmolik
 
Posted on: March 12, 2010 6:30 am
 

Schmolik Bubble Watch (Updated 3/12/10 - AM)

Hello, college basketball fans!

Updated: March 12, 2010

It's time for Schmolik's Bubble Watch. For many teams, this is a make or break week. Bubble Watch analyzes who is on the bubble and their chances of making the NCAA's.

First, teams that I feel are locks for the tournament. As always, I reserve the right to change my mind during the week. Automatic Bids not included.

ACC: Duke, Maryland, Clemson, Florida State, Wake Forest
A-10: Temple, Xavier, Richmond
Big East: Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame
Big 10: Ohio State, Purdue, Michigan State, Wisconsin
Big 12: Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma State, Missouri
C-USA: Texas El Paso
MWC: New Mexico, Brigham Young, UNLV
Pac 10: California
SEC: Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee
WAC: Utah State
WCC: Gonzaga

Total # Locks: 37
Minimum # At Large Locks: 27
Automatic Bids: 31
Remaining Bids: 7
As of Now: 11 teams in contention

Stats courtesy of CBSSports.com. Rankings are as of March 11, 2010 morning.

Thursday Update: Butler now automatic bid, Marquette, Notre Dame, Utah State added to locks. Arizona State, Seton Hall, South Florida removed.

Early morning Friday Update: UNLV added to locks

RPI/ Conf or Non Conf RPI: Good RPI is 30's or higher, marginal is 40's, poor is 50's or below.
*Last 10 games: 7-3 or better is a strength, 5-5 or lower a weakness.
SOS/Non Conf SOS: Good is top 20, bad is below 100.
Top 25 games: Strength: Two or more, Weakness: Zero
Top 50 games: Strength: Four or more, Weakness: One or fewer
Bad losses: Weakness: Home losses to teams below 100 in RPI, Loss to teams below 200 in RPI

* CBSSports.com lists “Last 10” in their RPI data. Although the last 10 games or last 12 games has been removed as an official criteria, the official bracket procedures state “chronological results” are considered so a poor or strong finish may still matter.

Bubble Teams (In/Out as of Last Schmolik 64 Update)

ACC

Virginia Tech (In)

Strengths: Conference RPI (32), 7-3 in last 10, Bubble wins: at Georgia Tech
Weaknesses: Non Conf RPI (98), Non Conf SOS (339!), no Top 25 wins

Should Be In If: They win one ACC tournament game
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose their first ACC game (losing to Miami would hurt)

Outlook: Great ACC profile, horrible non conference profile. If the Selection Committee wishes to make a statement about non conference scheduling, look for the Hokies to get the shaft. A win in the ACC should remove all doubt.

Georgia Tech (In)

Strengths: Four Top 50 wins (including Duke), Overall SOS (19)

Weaknesses: 4-6 in last 10 games, Non Conf SOS (153), Bubble Losses (Home vs Virginia Tech, Neutral vs Dayton), Conference Record (7-9), although still in Top 50 in Conference RPI

Should Be In If: They beat Maryland, making the ACC SF.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose to Maryland in the ACC QF.

Outlook: RPI numbers are respectable, but sub .500 conference record could haunt them. Then again, given the bad losses by Wake Forest and Clemson on Thursday, at least give Georgia Tech for winning a game (vs. North Carolina and I’d imagine a bunch of rowdy Tar Heel fans).

Atlantic 10

Rhode Island (Out)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (5!), Bubble Wins: at Dayton, Charlotte (if you consider them a bubble team)

Weaknesses: Conf RPI (101), 5-5 in last 10 games, no top 25 wins, only one top 50 win

Should Be In If: They make the A-10 final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the A-10 SF, maybe still alive if they lose to St. Louis in the A-10 QF.

Outlook: If the A-10 will get another at large bid, it will be Rhode Island. They have the highest RPI, a terrific non conference RPI, and wins over Dayton and Charlotte. I think they should at least be in the discussion now but beating Rhode Island will clearly establish them as the #4 team in the A-10.

Dayton (Out)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (15), Non Conf SOS (20)

Weaknesses: 5-5 in last 10 games, RPI (51), Conf RPI (89)

Should Be In If: They make the A-10 final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the A-10 SF, beating Xavier.

Outlook: Needs to beat Xavier to have any chance, still would have a hard time justifying a bid over Rhode Island (who beat Dayton at Dayton).

Big East

No Bubble Teams

Big 10

Illinois (Out)

Strengths: Three Top 25 wins (Vanderbilt, Michigan State, at Wisconsin)
Weaknesses: RPI (73), Conf RPI (50), Non Conf RPI (123), 5-5 in last 10 games (including 5 of last 6)

Should Be In If: They make the Big 10 final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Beat Wisconsin, most likely can’t afford to lose to either Iowa or Northwestern should either beat Ohio State.

Outlook: Clearly have only one strength (quality wins), but it’s the one that the NCAA (at least according to almost everyone in the media) seems to like the most and teams have in the past gotten away with poor RPI numbers and poor finishes if they have a few quality wins. I can’t imagine Illinois gets in with an RPI in the 70’s. Let’s see how much the RPI goes up if they beat Wisconsin and lose to Ohio State. If it gets into the mid 60’s, they may get some consideration. The Illini should also root for Clemson to do well to get into the RPI Top 25 and give Illinois another top 25 win and for Michigan State to at least maintain a Top 25 RPI. If they beat Wisconsin, they could potentially have five top 25 wins.

Big 12
No Bubble Teams

Conf USA

No Bubble Teams

MWC

San Diego State (In)

Strengths: RPI (34), Non Conf RPI (34), 8-2 in last 10 games

Weaknesses: Non Conf SOS (113), Bubble Loss: at Arizona State

Should Be In If: Makes the MWC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses in the MWC SF

Outlook: With Arizona State, UAB, Memphis, and Kent State choking on Thursday, I find it ridiculous for anyone to say this is not a tournament team. I did say they would be comfortably in if they make the final but I’ll leave them on the bubble to be consistent with earlier this week. The loss by Arizona State in the Pac 10 tournament probably widens the gap between the two so the head to head loss shouldn’t be a factor anymore.

Pac 10

Washington (In)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (23), 8-2 in last 10 games, Two top 25 wins (Texas A&M, California)

Weaknesses: Conf RPI (67), Bad Loss: Home to Oregon

Should Be In If: Probably can’t be sure unless they win it all.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the Pac 10 final.

Outlook: Well the path should be clearer for Washington to make the final (then again if Stanford beat ASU, they can certainly beat Washington). In some ways, Washington had a better profile than the Sun Devils anyway (Washington beat Cal and Texas A&M). It’s pretty clear if Washington makes the final they will be considered the 2nd best Pac 10 team and if more bubble teams trip on their feet this week, you have to say making the final and losing to Berkeley will be enough for the Huskies (no, not the U Conn Huskies).

SEC

Florida (In)

Strengths: Conference RPI (31), Bubble Wins (at Mississippi, Mississippi State), Two Top 25 wins (Michigan State, Tennessee)

Weaknesses: RPI (54), Non Conf RPI (75), 5-5 in last 10 games, Bad Loss: Home vs South Alabama

Should Be In If: Makes the SEC SF and loses to Vanderbilt or makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses next game to Mississippi State or SF to Mississippi

Outlook: Losing to either of the Mississippi schools would hurt their chances as it gives either a chance to pass them in the SEC pecking order.

Mississippi State (Out)

Strengths: Bubble Wins: Sweep over Mississippi

Weaknesses: RPI (67), Conf RPI (60), Non Conf RPI (73), Non Conf SOS (214), 5-5 in last 10 games, Bubble loss: at Florida, Bad Loss: Home vs Rider

Should Be In If: Makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Beats Florida

Outlook: I am seeing a lot of Mississippi in many brackets even though Mississippi State swept them and they tied in conference. To me, Mississippi has to clearly show they are better than MSU to overcome the head to head sweep. That being said, it’s a moot point unless they at least beat Florida. They didn’t beat any of the top four SEC East schools. I think the SEC should get rid of the top two in each division get byes and have the best four teams get byes (like the Big 12). Tennessee and Florida (or at least Tennessee) should have byes instead of the Mississippi schools.

Mississippi (Out)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (31)

Weaknesses: RPI (57), Conf RPI (64), Non Conf SOS (138), 5-5 in last 10 games, Bubble Losses: Home vs Florida, Sweep to Mississippi State, Bad Loss: Home to Arkansas

Should Be In If: Makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Beats Tennessee
Outlook: Honestly I don’t see anything good about Mississippi’s profile. Clearly the win over Tennessee would help but I’m still skeptical, otherwise I better not see their name on Sunday. Should both MSU and Ole Miss win their SF games, I still think you have to take MSU first before Ole Miss.

Other


Wichita State (Out)

Strengths: Conf RPI (38)
Weaknesses: Just one top 50 win (Northern Iowa), Non Conf RPI (82), Non Conf SOS (286!), Bad losses (at Evansville)

Tournament Result: Lost to Northern Iowa in MVC final

Outlook: Honestly only a really weak bubble is keeping them in the discussion. Finishing 2nd in the MVC and beating Northern Iowa is probably the only positive they have and that non conference SOS is terrible. They don’t even have “strong finish” in their basket. Should a lot of bubble teams win this week, I will likely take them off the bubble list. So far so good for the Shockers.

Teams who I feel can play themselves into the tournament with a good week (list is not all inclusive). Teams previously listed that were eliminated have been removed.

Big 10: Minnesota

Schmolik

Category: NCAAB
Tags: Bubble, Schmolik
 
Posted on: March 11, 2010 11:41 pm
 

Schmolik Bubble Watch (3/11/10)

Schmolik Bubble Watch

Hello, college basketball fans!

Updated: March 11, 2010

It's time for Schmolik's Bubble Watch. For many teams, this is a make or break week. Bubble Watch analyzes who is on the bubble and their chances of making the NCAA's.

First, teams that I feel are locks for the tournament. As always, I reserve the right to change my mind during the week. Automatic Bids not included.

ACC: Duke, Maryland, Clemson, Florida State, Wake Forest
A-10: Temple, Xavier, Richmond
Big East: Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame
Big 10: Ohio State, Purdue, Michigan State, Wisconsin
Big 12: Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma State, Missouri
C-USA: Texas El Paso
MWC: New Mexico, Brigham Young
Pac 10: California
SEC: Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee
WAC: Utah State
WCC: Gonzaga

Total # Locks: 36
Minimum # At Large Locks: 26
Automatic Bids: 31
Remaining Bids: 8
As of Now: 12 teams in contention

Stats courtesy of CBSSports.com. Rankings are as of March 11, 2010 morning.

Thursday Update: Butler now automatic bid, Marquette, Notre Dame, Utah State added to locks. Arizona State, Seton Hall, South Florida removed.

RPI/ Conf or Non Conf RPI: Good RPI is 30's or higher, marginal is 40's, poor is 50's or below.
*Last 10 games: 7-3 or better is a strength, 5-5 or lower a weakness.
SOS/Non Conf SOS: Good is top 20, bad is below 100.
Top 25 games: Strength: Two or more, Weakness: Zero
Top 50 games: Strength: Four or more, Weakness: One or fewer
Bad losses: Weakness: Home losses to teams below 100 in RPI, Loss to teams below 200 in RPI

* CBSSports.com lists “Last 10” in their RPI data. Although the last 10 games or last 12 games has been removed as an official criteria, the official bracket procedures state “chronological results” are considered so a poor or strong finish may still matter.

Bubble Teams (In/Out as of Last Schmolik 64 Update)

ACC

Virginia Tech (In)

Strengths: Conference RPI (32), 7-3 in last 10, Bubble wins: at Georgia Tech
Weaknesses: Non Conf RPI (98), Non Conf SOS (339!), no Top 25 wins

Should Be In If: They win one ACC tournament game
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose their first ACC game (losing to Miami would hurt)

Outlook: Great ACC profile, horrible non conference profile. If the Selection Committee wishes to make a statement about non conference scheduling, look for the Hokies to get the shaft. A win in the ACC should remove all doubt.

Georgia Tech (In)

Strengths: Four Top 50 wins (including Duke), Overall SOS (19)

Weaknesses: 4-6 in last 10 games, Non Conf SOS (153), Bubble Losses (Home vs Virginia Tech, Neutral vs Dayton), Conference Record (7-9), although still in Top 50 in Conference RPI

Should Be In If: They beat Maryland, making the ACC SF.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose to Maryland in the ACC QF.

Outlook: RPI numbers are respectable, but sub .500 conference record could haunt them.

Atlantic 10

Rhode Island (Out)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (5!), Bubble Wins: at Dayton, Charlotte (if you consider them a bubble team)

Weaknesses: Conf RPI (101), 5-5 in last 10 games, no top 25 wins, only one top 50 win

Should Be In If: They make the A-10 final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the A-10 SF, maybe still alive if they lose to St. Louis in the A-10 QF.

Outlook: If the A-10 will get another at large bid, it will be Rhode Island. They have the highest RPI, a terrific non conference RPI, and wins over Dayton and Charlotte. Would have to beat St. Joe’s at home for consideration and may have to beat St. Louis to at least get into the discussion.

Dayton (Out)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (15), Non Conf SOS (20)

Weaknesses: 5-5 in last 10 games, RPI (51), Conf RPI (89)

Should Be In If: They make the A-10 final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the A-10 SF, beating Xavier.

Outlook: Needs to beat Xavier to have any chance, still would have a hard time justifying a bid over Rhode Island (who beat Dayton at Dayton) unless Rhode Island loses to St. Joe’s.

Big East

No Bubble Teams

Big 10

Illinois (Out)

Strengths: Three Top 25 wins (Vanderbilt, Michigan State, at Wisconsin)
Weaknesses: RPI (73), Conf RPI (50), Non Conf RPI (123), 5-5 in last 10 games (including 5 of last 6)

Should Be In If: They make the Big 10 final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Beat Wisconsin, most likely can’t afford to lose to either Iowa or Northwestern should either beat Ohio State.

Outlook: Clearly have only one strength (quality wins), but it’s the one that the NCAA (at least according to almost everyone in the media) seems to like the most and teams have in the past gotten away with poor RPI numbers and poor finishes if they have a few quality wins. I can’t imagine Illinois gets in with an RPI in the 70’s. Let’s see how much the RPI goes up if they beat Wisconsin and lose to Ohio State. If it gets into the mid 60’s, they may get some consideration. The Illini should also root for Clemson to do well to get into the RPI Top 25 and give Illinois another top 25 win and for Michigan State to at least maintain a Top 25 RPI. If they beat Wisconsin, they could potentially have five top 25 wins.

Big 12
No Bubble Teams

Conf USA

No Bubble Teams

MWC

UNLV (In)

Strengths: 7-3 in last 10 games, Two Top 25 wins (at New Mexico, BYU), Four Top 50 wins

Weaknesses: Non Conference RPI (56), Non Conference SOS (202), Bad Loss: Home vs Utah

Should Be In If: Wins one MWC game.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose

Outlook: Pretty much avoid the bad loss and they should be OK. Surprising that their non conference profile is so bad (and that’s including a win vs Louisville). Do teams not want to go to Vegas anymore? They got swept by Utah this year, could a team outside the top 100 beat an NCAA contender three times in a year (UNLV opens the MWC vs Utah), especially on UNLV’s home court?

San Diego State (In)

Strengths: RPI (34), Non Conf RPI (34), 8-2 in last 10 games

Weaknesses: Non Conf SOS (113), Bubble Loss: at Arizona State

Should Be In If: Makes the MWC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses in the MWC SF

Outlook: A pretty good profile. I think a win and their chances are better than most people think. There isn’t much a reason to reject them and considering a weak bubble, they shouldn’t be rejected. Many teams were hoping St. Mary’s would not beat Gonzaga. San Diego State was probably indifferent and probably are better off without another bubble team that beat them earlier this year.

Pac 10

Washington (In)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (23), 8-2 in last 10 games, Two top 25 wins (Texas A&M, California)

Weaknesses: Conf RPI (67), Bad Loss: Home to Oregon

Should Be In If: Probably can’t be sure unless they win it all.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the Pac 10 final.

Outlook: See Arizona State. The potential SF match vs. Arizona State would be a rubber match between the two. Washington has a little better non conference profile and did beat Cal (ASU didn’t). But it pretty much comes down to them or ASU and the only way the Pac 10 gets three is if someone upsets Cal and either Washington or Arizona State in the final and the party crasher, Cal, and either Washington or ASU gets in.

SEC

Florida (In)

Strengths: Conference RPI (31), Bubble Wins (at Mississippi, Mississippi State), Two Top 25 wins (Michigan State, Tennessee)

Weaknesses: RPI (54), Non Conf RPI (75), 5-5 in last 10 games, Bad Loss: Home vs South Alabama

Should Be In If: Makes the SEC SF and loses to Vanderbilt or makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses next game to Mississippi State or SF to Mississippi

Outlook: Losing to either of the Mississippi schools would hurt their chances as it gives either a chance to pass them in the SEC pecking order.

Mississippi State (Out)

Strengths: Bubble Wins: Sweep over Mississippi

Weaknesses: RPI (67), Conf RPI (60), Non Conf RPI (73), Non Conf SOS (214), 5-5 in last 10 games, Bubble loss: at Florida, Bad Loss: Home vs Rider

Should Be In If: Makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Beats Florida

Outlook: I am seeing a lot of Mississippi in many brackets even though Mississippi State swept them and they tied in conference. To me, Mississippi has to clearly show they are better than MSU to overcome the head to head sweep. That being said, it’s a moot point unless they at least beat Florida. They didn’t beat any of the top four SEC East schools. I think the SEC should get rid of the top two in each division get byes and have the best four teams get byes (like the Big 12). Tennessee and Florida (or at least Tennessee) should have byes instead of the Mississippi schools.

Mississippi (Out)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (31)

Weaknesses: RPI (57), Conf RPI (64), Non Conf SOS (138), 5-5 in last 10 games, Bubble Losses: Home vs Florida, Sweep to Mississippi State, Bad Loss: Home to Arkansas

Should Be In If: Makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Beats Tennessee
Outlook: Honestly I don’t see anything good about Mississippi’s profile. Clearly the win over Tennessee would help but I’m still skeptical, otherwise I better not see their name on Sunday. Should both MSU and Ole Miss win their SF games, I still think you have to take MSU first before Ole Miss.

Other


Wichita State (Out)

Strengths: Conf RPI (38)
Weaknesses: Just one top 50 win (Northern Iowa), Non Conf RPI (82), Non Conf SOS (286!), Bad losses (at Evansville)

Tournament Result: Lost to Northern Iowa in MVC final

Outlook: Honestly only a really weak bubble is keeping them in the discussion. Finishing 2nd in the MVC and beating Northern Iowa is probably the only positive they have and that non conference SOS is terrible. They don’t even have “strong finish” in their basket. Should a lot of bubble teams win this week, I will likely take them off the bubble list.

Teams who I feel can play themselves into the tournament with a good week (list is not all inclusive). Teams previously listed that were eliminated have been removed.

Big 10: Minnesota

Schmolik

Category: NCAAB
Tags: Bubble, Schmolik
 
Posted on: March 9, 2010 9:01 pm
 

Schmolik Bubble Watch (3/9/10)

Schmolik Bubble Watch

Hello, college basketball fans!

Updated: March 9, 2010 9pm ET

It's time for Schmolik's Bubble Watch. For many teams, this is a make or break week. Bubble Watch analyzes who is on the bubble and their chances of making the NCAA's.

First, teams that I feel are locks for the tournament. As always, I reserve the right to change my mind during the week. Automatic Bids not included.

ACC: Duke, Maryland, Clemson, Florida State, Wake Forest
A-10: Temple, Xavier, Richmond
Big East: Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Louisville
Big 10: Ohio State, Purdue, Michigan State, Wisconsin
Big 12: Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma State, Missouri
C-USA: Texas El Paso
Horizon: Butler
MWC: New Mexico, Brigham Young
Pac 10: California
SEC: Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee
WCC: Gonzaga

Total # Locks: 34
Minimum # Locks: 24

Stats courtesy of CBSSports.com. Rankings are as of March 9, 2010 morning.

RPI/ Conf or Non Conf RPI: Good RPI is 30's or higher, marginal is 40's, poor is 50's or below.
*Last 10 games: 7-3 or better is a strength, 5-5 or lower a weakness.
SOS/Non Conf SOS: Good is top 20, bad is below 100.
Top 25 games: Strength: Two or more, Weakness: Zero
Top 50 games: Strength: Four or more, Weakness: One or fewer
Bad losses: Weakness: Home losses to teams below 100 in RPI, Loss to teams below 200 in RPI

* CBSSports.com lists “Last 10” in their RPI data. Although the last 10 games or last 12 games has been removed as an official criteria, the official bracket procedures state “chronological results” are considered so a poor or strong finish may still matter.

Bubble Teams (In/Out as of Last Schmolik 64 Update)

ACC

Virginia Tech (In)

Strengths: Conference RPI (32), 7-3 in last 10, Bubble wins: at Georgia Tech
Weaknesses: Non Conf RPI (98), Non Conf SOS (340!), no Top 25 wins

Should Be In If: They win one ACC tournament game
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose their first ACC game (although a loss to Wake Forest may not hurt that much, a loss to Miami would)

Outlook: Great ACC profile, horrible non conference profile. If the Selection Committee wishes to make a statement about non conference scheduling, look for the Hokies to get the shaft. A win in the ACC should remove all doubt.

Georgia Tech (In)

Strengths: Four Top 50 wins (including Duke), Overall SOS (19)

Weaknesses: 4-6 in last 10 games, Non Conf SOS (153), Bubble Losses (Home vs Virginia Tech, Neutral vs Dayton), Conference Record (7-9), although still in Top 50 in Conference RPI

Should Be In If: They beat Maryland, making the ACC SF.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose to Maryland in the ACC QF.

Outlook: RPI numbers are respectable, but sub .500 conference record could haunt them, especially if they lose their ACC opener to North Carolina.

Atlantic 10

Rhode Island (Out)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (4!), Bubble Wins: at Dayton, Charlotte (if you consider them a bubble team)

Weaknesses: Conf RPI (102), 5-5 in last 10 games, no top 256 wins, only one top 50 win

Should Be In If: They make the A-10 final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the A-10 SF, maybe still alive if they lose to St. Louis in the A-10 QF.

Outlook: If the A-10 will get another at large bid, it will be Rhode Island. They have the highest RPI, a terrific non conference RPI, and wins over Dayton and Charlotte. Would have to beat St. Joe’s at home for consideration and may have to beat St. Louis to at least get into the discussion.

Dayton (Out)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (14), Non Conf SOS (20)

Weaknesses: 5-5 in last 10 games, RPI (52), Conf RPI (90)
Should Be In If: They make the A-10 final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the A-10 SF, beating Xavier.

Outlook: Needs to beat Xavier to have any chance, still would have a hard time justifying a bid over Rhode Island (who beat Dayton at Dayton) unless Rhode Island loses to St. Joe’s.

Big East

Marquette (In)

Strengths: Conference RPI (35), 8-2 in last 10 games, two top 25 wins (vs Xavier, Georgetown), Bubble Win: at Seton Hall, South Florida

Weaknesses: RPI (58), Non Conf RPI (115), Non Conf SOS (203), Bubble Loss: Home vs Notre Dame, Bad Losses: Home vs NC State, at DePaul

Should Be In If: They beat St. John’s in next game.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose.

Outlook: The RPI is a big negative but their big wins, hot finish, and performance in conference (including win over Louisville) should be enough assuming they don’t blow it to St. John’s.

Notre Dame (In)

Strengths: Conference RPI (38), Three Top 25 wins (West Virginia, Pittsburgh, at Georgetown), Bubble Wins (at Marquette, Sweep of South Florida)

Weaknesses: RPI (59), Non Conf RPI (97), Non Conf SOS (225), Bubble Loss: at Seton Hall, Bad Loss: Home to Loyola Marymount

Should Be In If: They beat Seton Hall in next game.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose.

Outlook: Very similar to Marquette, a loss to Seton Hall would be their 2nd this year and would have Seton Hall pass Notre Dame in the pecking order. That being said, don’t be surprised to see nine from the Big East if Seton Hall wins.

Seton Hall (Out)

Strengths: Conference RPI (40), Bubble Win: Notre Dame

Weaknesses: RPI (54), Non Conf RPI (77), Non Conf SOS (200), Bubble Loss: at South Florida

Should Be In If: They make the Big East SF, beating Providence, Notre Dame, and Pittsburgh.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They beat Providence.

Outlook: They will get consideration if they beat Providence but will be near the bottom of the bubble unless they beat Notre Dame. Another problem is South Florida, who has a similar profile and beat Seton Hall earlier. It could be a race for the two in this tournament as to who gets farther.

South Florida (Out)

Strengths: Two Top 25 wins (Pitt, at Georgetown), Bubble Win: Seton Hall

Weaknesses: RPI (63), Non Conf RPI (80), Non Conf SOS (229), Bubble Losses: Swept by Notre Dame, Bad Loss: Home to Central Michigan

Should Be In If: They make the Big East final.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They beat Georgetown.

Outlook: A very hard sell, beating Syracuse in the Big East QF may not be enough. They should get consideration head to head vs Seton Hall if they are close (but Seton Hall would get head to head over Notre Dame in a potential three way logjam between SH, ND, and USF if the Pirates beat the Irish.

Big 10

Illinois (Out)

Strengths: Three Top 25 wins (Vanderbilt, Michigan State, at Wisconsin)
Weaknesses: RPI (74), Conf RPI (51), Non Conf RPI (120), 5-5 in last 10 games (including 5 of last 6)

Should Be In If: They make the Big 10 final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Beat Wisconsin, most likely can’t afford to lose to either Iowa or Northwestern should either beat Ohio State.

Outlook: Clearly have only one strength (quality wins), but it’s the one that the NCAA (at least according to almost everyone in the media) seems to like the most and teams have in the past gotten away with poor RPI numbers and poor finishes if they have a few quality wins. I can’t imagine Illinois gets in with an RPI in the 70’s. Let’s see how much the RPI goes up if they beat Wisconsin and lose to Ohio State. If it gets into the mid 60’s, they may get some consideration. The Illini should also root for Clemson to do well to get into the RPI Top 25 and give Illinois another top 25 win and for Michigan State to at least maintain a Top 25 RPI. If they beat Wisconsin, they could potentially have five top 25 wins.

Big 12
No Bubble Teams

Conf USA

Memphis (In)

Strengths: Conference RPI (36), 8-2 in last 10 games, Bubble Wins: Sweep of UAB

Weaknesses: Non Conference RPI (90), No Top 25 wins, Bad Loss: at SMU

Should Be In If: They Make Conf USA Final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They win one Conf USA game

Outlook: Memphis should not be passed over in favor of UAB even if UAB beats them in the Conf USA SF since Memphis has beaten them twice already. That would be the only scenario I can consider any other team (other than UTEP) passing them in the Conf USA pecking order. They probably want to at least make the SF though and losing to anyone below UAB would be pretty bad as well. Another nightmare is if someone other than themselves or UTEP wins the tournament as UTEP would get an at large and Memphis will have to hope C-USA gets three bids.

UAB (Out)

Strengths: RPI (40), Non Conf RPI (18)

Weaknesses: Conf RPI (59), 5-5 in last 10 games: Bubble Losses: Swept by Memphis, only one top 50 win (Butler)

Should Be In If: To feel safe, the only way would be to win it all
Should Be On the Bubble If: Makes the conference final

Outlook: Even a win over Memphis may not be enough to pass them in the pecking order (still 2-1 head to head) although making the final could add to the possibility of three bids in C-USA.

MWC

UNLV (In)

Strengths: 7-3 in last 10 games, Two Top 25 wins (at New Mexico, BYU), Four Top 50 wins

Weaknesses: Non Conference RPI (56), Non Conference SOS (191), Bad Loss: Home vs Utah

Should Be In If: Wins one MWC game.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose

Outlook: Pretty much avoid the bad loss and they should be OK. Surprising that their non conference profile is so bad (and that’s including a win vs Louisville). Do teams not want to go to Vegas anymore? They got swept by Utah this year, could a team outside the top 100 beat an NCAA contender three times in a year (UNLV opens the MWC vs Utah), especially on UNLV’s home court?

San Diego State (In)

Strengths: RPI (36), Non Conf RPI (35), 8-2 in last 10 games

Weaknesses: Non Conf SOS (105), Bubble Loss: at Arizona State

Should Be In If: Makes the MWC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Wins one MWC game.

Outlook: A pretty good profile. I think a win and their chances are better than most people think. There isn’t much a reason to reject them and considering a weak bubble, they shouldn’t be rejected (assuming they win one MWC game). Many teams were hoping St. Mary’s would not beat Gonzaga. San Diego State was probably indifferent and probably are better off without another bubble team that beat them earlier this year.

Pac 10

Arizona State (In)

Strengths: 8-2 in last 10 games, Bubble Wins - San Diego State

Weaknesses: RPI (53), Conf RPI (54), Non Conf RPI (55), No Top 25 wins

Should Be In If: Probably can’t be sure unless they win it all.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the Pac 10 final.

Outlook: The Pac 10 is weak and teams from the Pac 10 are really going to have to impress to make it. They have little chance at quality wins outside of beating Cal in the final (and then they would be in automatically). I can’t guarantee the winner of the potential SF between them and Washington will be in, but I can guarantee the loser won’t be. And if Arizona State loses before the final to anyone else, I can’t imagine them getting in either.

Washington (In)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (23), 8-2 in last 10 games, Two top 25 wins (Texas A&M, California)

Weaknesses: Conf RPI (67), Bad Loss: Home to Oregon

Should Be In If: Probably can’t be sure unless they win it all.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the Pac 10 final.

Outlook: See Arizona State. The potential SF match vs. Arizona State would be a rubber match between the two. Washington has a little better non conference profile and did beat Cal (ASU didn’t). But it pretty much comes down to them or ASU and the only way the Pac 10 gets three is if someone upsets Cal and either Washington or Arizona State in the final and the party crasher, Cal, and either Washington or ASU gets in.

SEC

Florida (In)

Strengths: Conference RPI (31), Bubble Wins (at Mississippi, Mississippi State), Two Top 25 wins (Michigan State, Tennessee)

Weaknesses: RPI (51), Non Conf RPI (71), 5-5 in last 10 games, Bad Loss: Home vs South Alabama

Should Be In If: Makes the SEC SF and loses to Vanderbilt or makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Wins 1st SEC game vs Auburn

Outlook: Losing to either of the Mississippi schools would hurt their chances as it gives either a chance to pass them in the SEC pecking order.

Mississippi State (Out)

Strengths: Bubble Wins: Sweep over Mississippi

Weaknesses: RPI (69), Conf RPI (61), Non Conf RPI (76), Non Conf SOS (222), 5-5 in last 10 games, Bubble loss: at Florida, Bad Loss: Home vs Rider

Should Be In If: Makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Beats Florida

Outlook: I am seeing a lot of Mississippi in many brackets even though Mississippi State swept them and they tied in conference. To me, Mississippi has to clearly show they are better than MSU to overcome the head to head sweep. That being said, it’s a moot point unless they at least beat Florida. They didn’t beat any of the top four SEC East schools. I think the SEC should get rid of the top two in each division get byes and have the best four teams get byes (like the Big 12). Tennessee and Florida (or at least Tennessee) should have byes instead of the Mississippi schools.

Mississippi (Out)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (35)

Weaknesses: RPI (56), Conf RPI (65), Non Conf SOS (142), 5-5 in last 10 games, Bubble Losses: Home vs Florida, Sweep to Mississippi State, Bad Loss: Home to Arkansas

Should Be In If: Makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Beats Tennessee
Outlook: Honestly I don’t see anything good about Mississippi’s profile. Clearly the win over Tennessee would help but I’m still skeptical, otherwise I better not see their name on Sunday. Should both MSU and Ole Miss win their SF games, I still think you have to take MSU first before Ole Miss.

Other

Utah State (In)

Strengths: RPI (32), Conf RPI (33), 10-0 in last 10 games!, Bubble Win: Wichita State

Weaknesses: Non Conf RPI (57)

Should Be In If: Avoids a bad loss in the WAC tournament
Should Be On the Bubble If: Takes a bad loss in the WAC tournament.

Outlook: Pretty close to a lock but win one game in the WAC to be entirely sure. At least they won’t have to compete with St. Mary’s for an at large (see San Diego State).

Wichita State (Out)

Strengths: Conf RPI (37)
Weaknesses: Just one top 50 win (Northern Iowa), Non Conf RPI (85), SOS (101), Non Conf SOS (285!), Bad losses (at Evansville)

Tournament Result: Lost to Northern Iowa in MVC final

Outlook: Honestly only a really weak bubble is keeping them in the discussion. Finishing 2nd in the MVC and beating Northern Iowa is probably the only positive they have and that non conference SOS is terrible. They don’t even have “strong finish” in their basket. Should a lot of bubble teams win this week, I will likely take them off the bubble list.

Teams who I feel can play themselves into the tournament with a good week (list is not all inclusive). Teams previously listed that were eliminated have been removed.

Big East: Cincinnati
Big 10: Minnesota

Schmolik

Category: NCAAB
Tags: Bubble, Schmolik
 
Posted on: March 9, 2010 12:42 am
Edited on: March 9, 2010 12:43 am
 

Schmolik 64 Update (Early Morning, 3/9/10)

Hello, college basketball fans!

This is the next to last Schmolik 64 Update for 2010. Stay tuned on Championship Sunday for the final Schmolik 64. This bracket will list all 65 teams. For one bid conferences, I chose the highest seeded team remaining.

Records as of Monday night games.

Schedule:
1st/2nd: Thur/Sat March 18-20, Fri/Sun March 19-21
Regionals: Thur/Sat March 25-27, Fri/Sun March 26-28
* Automatic Bid to NCAA's

MIDWEST REGIONAL (St. Louis - Fri/Sun)
Oklahoma City, OK - Thur/Sat
1 Kansas (29-2) vs 16 Winthrop * (17-13)
8 Northern Iowa * (28-4) vs 9 California (21-9)

Spokane, WA - Fri/Sun
5 Georgetown (20-9) vs 12 Kent State (22-8)
4 Maryland (22-7) vs 13 Murray State * (28-4)

Jacksonville, FL - Fri/Sun
6 Xavier (23-7) vs 11 Siena * (27-6)
3 Pittsburgh (24-7) vs 14 Oakland (23-8)

Milwaukee, WI - Fri/Sun
7 Oklahoma State (21-9) vs 10 UNLV (22-7)
2 Purdue (26-4) vs 15 Troy (17-11)

WEST REGIONAL (Salt Lake City - Thur/Sat)

Jacksonville, FL - Fri/Sun
1 Duke (26-5) vs 16 Vermont (24-9)
8 Missouri (22-9) vs 9 Louisville (20-11)

Spokane, WA - Fri/Sun
5 Tennessee (23-7) vs 12 San Diego State (20-8)
4 Wisconsin (23-7) vs 13 Arizona State (22-9)

Providence, RI - Thur/Sat
6 Texas (23-8) vs 11 Virginia Tech (23-7)
3 Villanova (24-6) vs 14 Wofford * (25-8)

San Jose, CA - Thur/Sat
7 Gonzaga (25-6) vs 10 Utah State (24-6)
2 New Mexico (28-3) vs 15 UC-Santa Barbara (17-9)

Midwest vs West in Final Four, South vs East in Final Four

SOUTH REGIONAL (Houston - Fri/Sun)

Buffalo, NY - Fri/Sun
1 Syracuse (28-3) vs 16 Play In Winner - Lehigh (21-10) vs Jackson State (18-11)
8 Florida State (22-8) vs 9 Old Dominion * (26-8)

New Orleans, LA - Thur/Sat
5 Vanderbilt (22-7) vs 12 Memphis (23-8)
4 Texas A&M (21-8) vs 13 Cornell * (25-4)

Oklahoma City, OK - Thur/Sat
6 Butler (27-4) vs 11 Georgia Tech (18-11)
3 Kansas State (23-6) vs 14 Weber State (17-9)

Providence, RI - Thur/Sat
7 Richmond (24-7) vs 10 Marquette (20-10)
2 Ohio State (24-7) vs 15 Morgan State (24-9)

EAST REGIONAL (Syracuse, NY - Thur/Sat)

Milwaukee, WI - Fri/Sun
1 Kentucky (29-2) vs 16 Quinnipiac (23-8)
8 Wake Forest (19-9) vs 9 Texas El Paso (24-5)

San Jose, CA - Thur/Sat
5 Temple (26-5) vs 12 Notre Dame (21-10)
4 Michigan State (24-7) vs 13 Washington (21-9)

New Orleans, FL - Thur/Sat
6 BYU (27-4) vs 11 Florida (20-11)
3 Baylor (23-6) vs 14 Sam Houston State (18-7)

Buffalo, NY - Fri/Sun
7 Clemson (21-9) vs 10 St. Mary's * (25-5)
2 West Virginia (24-6) vs 15 E. Tennessee State * (19-14)

Big East: 8 (Syr, WV, Pitt, Vill, GTown, Lville, Marq, ND)
Big 12: 7 (Kan, KSU, Bay, A&M, Tex, OSU, Mo)
ACC: 7 (Duke, Md, Clem, FSU, WF, VaT, GaT)
Big 10: 4 (Pur, OSU, MSU, Wisc)
SEC: 4 (Ky, Vbilt, Tenn, Fla)
MWC: 4 (NM, BYU, UNLV, SDSt)
A-10: 3 (Temp, Xav, Rich)
Pac-10: 3 (Cal, ASU, Wash)
C-USA: 2 (UTEP, Mem)
WCC: 2 (Gonz, St. M)

Remaining: 21 (Horizon, MVC/N Iowa, Colonial/ODU, WAC, Metro Atl/Siena, MAC, Ivy/Cornell, Ohio V/Murray State, Big Sky, Summit, Southern/Wofford, S'land, AtlSun/E Tenn State, MEAC, Sun Belt, Big West, Big South/Winthrop, Northeast, America East, Patriot, SWAC)

Other at large candidates: Rhode Island, UAB, Wichita State, Seton Hall, South Florida, Illinois (RPI is in the 70's but have 4 top 50 wins, 3 top 25 and Clemson, which is close).

No bracket updates this week until the final bracket but stay tuned for bubble updates and other blog entries.

Category: NCAAB
Tags: Schmolik 64
 
Posted on: March 1, 2010 5:24 pm
 

Schmolik 64 Update (3/1/10)

Hello, college basketball fans!

Here is the latest Schmolik 64. Until Championship Week, I only seed the top 12 teams in each conference. The reason is most if not all of these spots are reserved for automatic bid teams that most likely won't be determined until Championship Week.

1st Round Dates: Thur/Sat March 18-20, Fri/Sun March 19-21

SOUTH REGIONAL (Houston, TX Fri/Sun March 26-28)

Buffalo, NY (Fri/Sun)
1 Syracuse (27-2) vs 16
8 Missouri (21-8) vs 9 Wake Forest (18-8)

Spokane, WA (Fri/Sun)
5 Temple (24-5) vs 12 St. Mary's (23-5)
4 Tennessee (21-7) vs 13

New Orleans, LA (Thur/Sat)
6 Maryland (20-7) vs 11 Charlotte (19-9)
3 Michigan State (22-7) vs 14

Oklahoma City, OK (Thur/Sat)
7 Northern Iowa (25-4) vs 10 Louisville (19-10)
2 Kansas State (23-4) vs 15

WEST REGIONAL (Salt Lake City, UT Thur/Sat March 25-27)

Jacksonville, FL (Fri/Sun)
1 Duke (25-4) vs 16
8 California (20-9) vs 9 Marquette (19-9)

New Orleans, LA (Thur/Sat)
5 Baylor (21-6) vs 12 San Diego State (18-8)
4 Vanderbilt (21-6) vs 13

Buffalo, NY (Fri/Sun)
6 Gonzaga (23-5) vs 11 Virginia Tech (21-7)
3 Pittsburgh (22-7) vs 14

San Jose, CA (Thur/Sat)
7 Texas (22-7) vs 10 Utah State (22-6)
2 New Mexico (27-3)

South vs West, Midwest vs East in Final Four

MIDWEST REGIONAL (St. Louis, MO Fri/Sun March 26-28)

Oklahoma City, OK (Thur/Sat)
1 Kansas (27-2) vs 16
8 Texas El Paso (22-5) vs 9 Florida (20-9)

Spokane, WA (Fri/Sun)
5 Wisconsin (21-7) vs 12 Connecticut (17-12)
4 Butler (26-4) vs 13

Providence, RI (Thur/Sat)
6 Xavier (21-7) vs 11 UNLV (21-7)
3 West Virginia (22-6) vs 14

Milwaukee, WI (Fri/Sun)
7 Oklahoma State (20-8) vs 10 Georgia Tech (18-9)
2 Ohio State (23-7) vs 15

EAST REGIONAL (Syracuse, NY Thur/Sat March 25-27)

Milwaukee, WI (Fri/Sun)
1 Kentucky (27-2) vs 16
8 Richmond (22-7) vs 9 Florida State (20-8)

San Jose, CA (Thur/Sat)
5 BYU (25-4) vs 12 UAB (23-5)
4 Georgetown (19-8) vs 13

Jacksonville, FL (Fri/Sun)
6 Texas A&M (19-8) vs 11 Siena (24-6)
3 Purdue (24-4) vs 14

Providence, RI (Thur/Sat)
7 Clemson (20-8) vs 10 Old Dominion (23-8)
2 Villanova (23-5) vs 15

Big East: 8 (Syr, Vill, Pitt, WV, GTown, Marq, Lville, Conn)
ACC: 7 (Duke, Md, Clem, FSU, WF, GaT, VaT)
Big 12: 7 (Kan, KSU, Bay, A&M, Tex, OSU, Mo)
A-10: 4 (Temp, Xav, Rich, Charl)
Big 10: 4 (OSU, Pur, MSU, Wisc)
MWC: 4 (NM, BYU, UNLV, SDSt)
SEC: 4 (Ky, Vbilt, Tenn, Fla)
C-USA: 2 (UTEP, UAB)
WCC: 2 (Gonz, St. M)
Remaining: 6 (Butl, N Iowa, Cal, USU, ODU, Siena)

Remaining Automatics: 16
Remaining At Large: 1

Candidates: RI, Day, Wich St, ASU, Miss St, Cin, SH, ND, Ill

Schmolik
Category: NCAAB
Tags: Schmolik
 
Posted on: February 27, 2010 1:34 pm
 

What to Watch For This Weekend (2/27-2/28)

Hello, college basketball fans!

With the regular season winding down, here's games this weekend that may affect the bracket.

ACC:
Boston College at Georgia Tech, Sat noon

Georgia Tech has the RPI numbers and a huge win over Duke to overcome a current sub .500 conference record but can't afford to fall too far behind .500 and can ill afford to lose this game.

North Carolina at Wake Forest, Sat 2pm (CBS)

Wake Forest needs to stop a two game skid.

Maryland at Virginia Tech, Sat 4pm

I think Maryland is solidly in but a win here would ice it. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech needs a good win and a strong ACC record to negate their weak non conference schedule.

Clemson at Florida State, Sun 5:30pm

A bubble team special. A win by Clemson gives Florida State the sweep this season and a win by Florida State gives them a 2 game lead in the standings and puts Clemson at 7-7 in conference.

A-10:

Rhode Island at St. Bonaventure, Sat 2pm
Charlotte at George Washington, Sat 6pm

Charlotte leads in the conference standings and has beaten both Temple and Richmond (at Richmond) while Rhode Island hasn't beaten any of the three top A-10 teams (they were swept by Temple and lost at home to Richmond). But Rhode Island's RPI is about 30 spots ahead. Both teams though need to keep winning. Charlotte's RPI is low borderline and if sinks too low they will fall out of contention. Meanwhile, Rhode Island's RPI in the 20's will keep it in consideration but if they drop into the 30's/40's, they don't have the quality wins to compensate.

Richmond at Xavier, Sun 1pm

Winner stays at worst tied with Temple for first place in the A-10.

Big East:

Villanova at Syracuse, Sat 9pm

I think if either of these teams win the Big East tournament they should be a #1 seed although a Big East regular season title (winner of this game will take a big step towards the title) wouldn't hurt.

Marquette at Seton Hall, Sun noon

A loss can knock Marquette out of many brackets come Monday. Seton Hall desperately needs a win to keep their at large chances alive.

Louisville at Connecticut, Sun 2pm (CBS)

Both teams are in my last bracket but Connecticut's position is very shaky. They have a better profile than Cincinnati but the closer the two profiles get, the more consideration of the head to head sweep by the Bearcats will get. Louisville can really help their chances with a key road win and also would have a season sweep over UConn.

Big 10:

Minnesota at Illinois, Sat 4pm

Despite Illinois's low RPI, I can't see Illinois not getting in at 11-7 (of course I'm going to say that though) and a win over the Gophers will give them 11 wins (and a winnable game at home vs. Wisconsin next weekend, who they beat at Madison earlier). Lose, and they will really be in bubble danger. Meanwhile, this is a last gasp for Minnesota.

Michigan State at Purdue, Sun 4pm (CBS)

With Hummel out for the season, every game for the Boilers will be scrutinized in their hunt for a possible #1 seed. Should Purdue lose, expect Duke (if they beat Virginia) to replace them as a #1 seed in most Monday brackets.

Big 12:

Texas at Texas A&M, Sat 2pm

Clearly a game for seeding purposes. Should Kansas be placed in the Midwest as expected, there's a slight chance these teams may be playing (along with Baylor) for a spot in the South and Houston as well (depending on what they do with Kansas State).

Kansas at Oklahoma State, Sat 4pm (CBS)

Kansas doesn't seem to be in danger of losing a #1 seed. Oklahoma State is on the edge and would almost clinch a berth with a big win over the Jayhawks.

Missouri at Kansas State, Sat 8pm

Missouri has a great profile in a very strong Big 12 but a win at Kansas State will really help their chances. Kansas State's chances for a high seed will take a hit with a head to head sweep by Missouri (Missouri won the first match in Columbia).

SEC:

Kentucky at Tennessee, Sat noon (CBS)

Clearly means a lot more to Tennessee than Kentucky. Win, and they would've beaten Kansas and Kentucky this season.

Mississippi State at South Carolina, Sat 6pm

Both teams have to win to stay in at large contention, Mississippi State would have a much better chance with a win than South Carolina with a win (still would be under .500 in the SEC).

Others:

Arizona State at California, Sat 3pm

A win by California would pretty much lock of the conference regular season title and would strongly help their at large chances. Arizona State needs to win to have any chance at an at large (they lost at home to Cal earlier this season). These two look like the only chances for the weak Pac 10 to get an at large bid this season.

New Mexico at BYU, Sat 4pm

Winner takes the lead in the MWC and possibly towards a top 4 seed and the right to stay in the West in the NCAA's (although a BYU win would likely come down to a rubber match in a potential MWC final). New Mexico won the first meeting. If New Mexico stays west, BYU has to go to the East Regional (only other regional that plays on Saturday).



Category: NCAAB
Posted on: February 26, 2010 7:27 pm
 

Schmolik 64 Update (2/26/10)

Hello, college basketball fans!

This is my second Schmolik 64 Update for 2010.

Only the top 12 seeds are listed. I don't seed 13-16 until Championship Week. Records as of 2/25/10.

MIDWEST REGIONAL (St. Louis, MO - Fri/Sun March 26-28)

Oklahoma City, OK (Thur/Sat March 18-20)
1 Kansas (27-1) vs 16
8 Florida State (20-7)  vs 9 Louisville (18-10)

Spokane, WA (Fri/Sun March 19-21)
5 Temple (23-5) vs 12 Old Dominion (22-8)
4 Wisconsin (21-7)  vs 13

San Jose, CA (Thur/Sat March 18-20)
6 Tennessee (20-7)  vs 11 Utah State (22-6)
3 New Mexico (26-3)  vs 14

Buffalo, NY (Fri/Sun March 19-21)
7 Missouri (21-7)  vs 10 Georgia Tech (17-9)
2 Pittsburgh (21-7) vs 15

WEST REGIONAL (Salt Lake City, UT - Thur/Sat March 25-27)

Milwaukee, WI (Fri/Sun March 19-21)
1 Purdue (24-3)  vs 16
8 California (19-9)  vs 9 Florida (20-8)

San Jose, CA (Thur/Sat March 19-21)
5 Gonzaga (22-5) vs 12 Connecticut (17-11)
4 BYU (25-3) vs 13

Providence, RI (Thur/Sat March 18-20)
6 Maryland (19-7) vs 11 Charlotte (19-8)
3 West Virginia (21-6) vs 14

Oklahoma City, OK (Thur/Sat March 19-21)
7  Northern Iowa (24-4) vs 10 Texas El Paso (21-5)
2 Kansas State (22-4) vs 15

Midwest vs West in Final Four

EAST REGIONAL (Syracuse, NY - Thur/Sat March 25-27)

Milwaukee, WI (Fri/Sun March 19-21)
1 Kentucky (27-1) vs 16
8 Wake Forest (18-7) vs 9 UNLV (20-7)

Spokane, WA (Fri/Sun March 19-21)
5 Baylor (20-6)  vs 12 Marquette (18-9)
4 Butler (25-4) vs 13

New Orleans, LA (Thur/Sat March 18-20)
6 Xavier (20-7) vs 11 Virginia Tech (21-6)
3 Ohio State (22-7) vs 14

Providence, RI (Thur/Sat March 18-20)
7 Texas (22-6) vs 10 Siena (22-6)
2 Villanova (23-4) vs 15

SOUTH REGIONAL (Houston, TX - Fri/Sun March 26-28)

Buffalo, NY (Fri/Sun March 19-21)
1 Syracuse (26-2) vs 16
8 Clemson (19-8) vs 9 Oklahoma State (19-8)

New Orleans, LA (Thur/Sat March 18-20)
5 Michigan State (21-7) vs 12 Rhode Island (20-6)
4 Vanderbilt (20-6) vs 13

Jacksonville, FL (Fri/Sun March 19-21)
6 Texas A&M (18-8)  vs 11 UAB (22-5)
3 Georgetown (19-7) vs 14

Jacksonville, FL (Fri/Sun March 19-21)
7 Richmond (22-6) vs 10 Illinois (18-10)
2 Duke (24-4) vs 15

Big East: 8 (Syr, Vill, Pitt, WV, G Town, Lville, Marq, Conn)
ACC: 7 (Duke, Md, WF, FSU, Clem, GaT, VaT)
Big 12: 7 (Kan, KSU, A&M, Bay, Tex, Mo, OSU)
A-10: 5 (Temp, Xav, RI, Rich, Charl)
Big 10: 5 (Pur, OSU, MSU, Wisc, Ill)
SEC: 4 (Ky, Vbilt, Tenn, Fla)
MWC: 3 (NM, BYU, UNLV)
C-USA: 2 (UTEP, UAB)
One Bid: 7 (Butl, N Iowa, Cal, Gonz, USU, Siena, ODU)

Conferences represented: 15 (48 teams)
Remaining automatic bids: 16
Remaining at large: 1

Candidates for at large: San Diego State, Dayton, St. Mary's, Cincinnati, Seton Hall, Arizona State, Mississippi State
Category: NCAAB
Tags: Schmolik
 
 
 
 
 
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