Posted on: August 9, 2009 7:10 pm
...but I do believe in good fortune. There's no such thing as luck though. Just like in real sports, you have to have some bounces go your way to be successful in fantasy sports. I'll tell you one thing though. The "points against" column can decide a LOT of fantasy seasons. Currently, in my fantasy baseball league, there are teams that I have more points than and I have 3 or 4 fewer wins. Unfortunately, though, that's the name of the game in a head-to-head league. You have to win the games that you play. If you score 234 points in a week and you happen to play the highest scoring team in the league who scores 240, that's just the way that it goes. Stuff happens sometimes, you know? You can't just say "awwww, that's bull crap", you play the games on your schedule and you play the hand you're dealt.
It does feel unfortunate when you face Tim Lincecum on one week and he puts up a 14 strikeout shutout, then the next week when that team plays another team in your division and you need them to win, he gives up 3 or 4 runs and loses. That's not bad luck, it's bad fortune. There has never been a BAD fantasy team that has won a title. Everybody gets breaks along the way, but nobody is lucky.
One team comes to mind... the 2007 New York Giants. They weren't the best team, clearly. The Patriots were 18-0 and set an NFL record for points scored in a season. The Giants played a good game, had a great game plan and executed it to perfection. On that particular day, the Giants were just better and it just so happened that the game was for the world championship. The same thing happens in fantasy sometimes. Sometimes a team can just be better, you may actually beat them 8 out of 10 (I like how CBS breaks that down for you in the "breakdown" part of the fantasy site). In a season, you may have outscored a team 7 out of 8 weeks and in Week 9, they beat you. It isn't luck. It's bad fortune, but there's no such thing as luck.
I heard Peyton Manning say something once. He said something to this effect, "You know, you have to think that if you keep preparing the right way, working hard, practicing hard, making good choices, that eventually, things are going to work out for you." Peyton hasn't gotten all of the breaks in life, but he has gotten some things to go his way. The same is true in fantasy sports. Eventually, if you keep doing all of the right things, you will win -- and it won't be luck.
Posted on: April 17, 2009 12:03 pm
How many of you play fantasy sports? I've played fantasy football for about 12 years now. I have 4 titles in 2 different leagues, while losing in the championship game a combined 4 times over those same 2 leagues. I made the World Series in the inaugural year of fantasy baseball. I've done pretty well.
This is my 3rd year playing fantasy baseball and I've learned that it is infinitely more difficult than fantasy football. There are more players, more teams, more games, it really is a greater challenge. One of the lessons that fantasy baseball has taught me is that you MUST be patient when it comes to your teams following your draft.
Why do I know this? Last year, when C.C. Sabathia started 0-3, along with my fantasy team, I panicked and dropped him like some red Victoria's Secret panties. We all know that he came back and pitched Cy Young caliber baseball for the remainder of the season. Nice job, Jamal. Alfonso Soriano got off to a similarly bad start, I think he hit below .200 in April last year and I got rid of him also. He did make 2 stints on the DL, but had some monster weeks, one in particular in which he hit 8 home runs that week. Soriano is a MONSTER, in case you didn't know.
You really have to be patient, more so in fantasy baseball than football, to capitalize on the team that you drafted. You spend all offseason doing research, reading magazines, perusing websites, only to drop a guy after a bad start to the season. Week 2 will be completed in fantasy baseball this Sunday, but guess what? There is 90% of the regular season left to play. Even if you start 0-2, you have plenty of time to make that ground up and have a phenomenal year. Lance Berkman has started the season like crap, as has Cliff Lee, and a host of other players. Be patient with them. They are household names for a reason. I'm big into statistics and I believe that eventually, over the course of a season, those numbers will even out.
The other thing that I've learned, is the importance of depth in fantasy sports. In football, where you have so many injuries, and bye weeks, it is critical to have a stable of good players. The same is true in baseball, where players go on cold streaks, get nicked up, etc. Even though you will probably start Vladimir Guerrero 18 out of 20 weeks, there may come a week or two where he's a little cold at the plate or slightly injured and you sit him. Of course, the week you sit him, he'll hit .430, with 5 home runs, and 11 RBI, but hey, that's the way it goes!!! ALWAYS TRUST YOUR FIRST INSTINCT when it comes to setting your lineup. I like to set my lineup early in the week and I only change it if something forces me to. More often than not, whatever your initial thought process is turns out to be right.
Good luck to all this season. Remember, be PATIENT with your stars. They will come around and those numbers will even out in the end.