Posted on: November 12, 2009 12:38 pm

Week 10 Picks

A solid 8-5 last week, which leaves me at 69-59.  I rarely give away the points in most games, but I had to take the Packers over the Bucs last week.  I mean seriously, who wouldn't?  Just goes to show you that Vegas knows more than us.  Anyways, here we go...

Chicago (+3) over San Francisco.  Everyone is counting the Bears out right now, but they should be able to get after Alex Smith.  Cutler got Greg Olsen active last week, and they're angry after their loss to the Cardinals.  With Cutler it's either all or nothing, and I think he'll have a very good game against the 49ers.

Atlanta (-1.5) over Carolina.  I was very surprised about this line, considering Atlanta has a very complete team.  Carolina's running game is something to be scared of, but I don't think their passing game is good enough.  Turner has been turning it on lately, too.

Tampa Bay (+10) over Miami.  I don't like how Chad Henne has been playing lately, and the wildcat offense has been very inconsistent.  Miami will in all liklihood win this game, but Josh Freeman impressed me, and I think he gives the Bucs a shot to win the game.

Detroit (+16.5) over Minnesota.  This should be a blowout, but I'm taking the points for two reasons.  First, this could very well be a trip-up game for the Vikings.  Second, the Lions have to realize that they need to get Calvin Johnson more active in their passing game.  Stafford won't throw 5 picks again.

Jacksonville (+7) over New York Jets.  I thought that this was a lot of points for a Jets team that is very inconsistent.  Yeah, the Jaguars do not deserve their 4-4 record, but seven points?  MJD can break an 80-yard run at any moment.  If the Jets passing game gets going, this could be a blowout, but I'm still taking the points.

Cincinnati Bengals (+7) over Pittsburgh.  Too many points again!  The Steelers usually win close games, so I'll take the Bengals fully expecting a Jeff Reed winning field goal.  For all we know, the Bengals might actually be better than the Steelers.

New Orleans Saints (-13.5) over St. Louis.  This is one of the highest lines you'll ever see me bite on, but here's my reasoning: even if Steven Jackson runs for 200 yards and three TDs, the Rams defense is bad enough to allow the Saints to cover.

Buffalo (+6.5) over Tennessee.  This is where the Titans short rally ends.  There has been enough film of Vince Young to understand that he's not a very good quarterback, and the Bills defense has been pretty solid this year.  I'm not sure that having Trent Edwards back helps too much, but they can score against this terrible defense.

Denver (-3.5) over Washington.  I think that the they're trying to get us to bite on the fact that Denver has lost two straight, but this is the Redskins we're talking about here.  I'll be shocked if this one is even close.

Kansas City (+1.5) over Oakland.  The Raiders are averaging less than ten points a game, and I think that at some point, Matt Cassel has to turn it on.  Acquiring Chris Chambers will help out that offense a lot, and I'm still looking for Jamaal Charles to show that he can be a starter in the NFL.

Seattle (+8.5) over Arizona.  I love that the Cardinals are getting so much credit here.  It's stupid.  Typical up and down team.  First, they beat a badly slumping Giants team, and then they tank a game against the Panthers.  They crush the Bears, and now everything thinks they're great.  I'm not buying at all.

Green Bay (+3) over Dallas.  The Packers are going to be very angry after that game, and the Cowboys still don't look very good.  Yeah, Miles Austin has emerged as a great receiver, but it can't last for too much longer.  Rodgers must get rid of that ball quicker, especially with Ware and Ratliff chasing him down.

San Diego (+2) over Philadelphia.  This goes against my picking strategy, but I had to take the Chargers here.  I just don't think that the Eagles are very good.  In fact, I don't think any team in the NFC East is very good.  Phillips to Jackson is just too easy.

New England (+3) over Indianapolis.  I hate this one.  It kills me to pick the Patriots in this game, especially because of the reaction that will occur with Pats fans if they do win.  But the Colts secondary is way too banged up.  I hope I'm wrong here.

Baltimore (-11) over Cleveland.  What an anticlimatic finish.  I really don't like anything about the Browns, so I'll go with the struggling Ravens instead.  Enough said.

Category: NFL
Tags: Picks, Spread, Week 10
Posted on: November 5, 2009 12:24 pm

Week 9 Picks

Another 6-7 week, and my record is slowly getting closer to .500.  These high lines have been ridiculous!  I'm at 61-54 right now, and could really use a good week here.  My Week 9 Picks:

Washington (+10) over Atlanta.  With two weeks to prepare, and plenty of film to see where the Falcons have been exposed, I think they have a legitimate shot at keeping it close.  The Redskins defense has actually been playing pretty well, and Turner hasn't been spectacular this year.

Arizona (+3) over Chicago.  Despite their loss to the Panthers last week, I still think the Cardinals have too many weapons on both sides of the field to lose to the BearsJay Cutler will be pressured, and their run defense should play well against Forte.

Houston (+9) over Indianapolis.  It'll be a tough one against Freeney, but Houston's offense has been clicking.  My downfall here could be that Owen Daniels is out for the season, but Kevin Walter may step it up here.  The Colts will more than likely win, but I'm a points addict.

Cincinnati (+3) over Baltimore.  The Bengals were able to more on the Ravens last time (though it was mostly due to stupid Ravens penalties), and I think it only gets better from here.  The Bengals defense is underrated, even with their injuries.

Kansas City (+6) over Jacksonville.  What a terrible game.  The Chiefs get the opportunity to see how Jamaal Charles will play, and Matt Cassel has had two weeks to prepare.  Plus, the Jaguars just aren't very good.

Green Bay (-10) over Tampa Bay.  The Packers are going to be angry after that loss, and they won't face too much pressure from the Bucs defensive line.  They haven't won a single game this year, and they won't come close to changing that this week.

Miami (+10.5) over New England.  I think the Patriots will win this game, but Miami usually keeps games close.  If they're able to control the ball, they might even have a shot at winning it.

Carolina (+13.5) over New Orleans.  I think this will be closer than most expect because the Panthers seem to have gone back to running the ball more, which they should.  The combination of Williams and Stewart is just too good, and the Saints defense might have their hands full.

Detroit (+10) over Seattle.  Ten points for a Seahawks team that's playing this bad?  No thank you.  If Calvin Johnson is back, the Lions will probably win.  It's unbelievable all the massive point spreads this week.

San Francisco (-5.5) over Tennessee.  The Titans defense has given up way too many points, and with a player like Frank Gore ripping massive runs on decent defenses, I'll go with the 49ers.  Yeah, Chris Johnson has done the same, but he won't against this defense.

San Diego Chargers (+3.5) over New York Giants.  The Giants haven't beaten the spread in forever, so I'm not going to start picking them now.  Vincent Jackson and Malcolm Floyd will shred this secondary.

Dallas (+3) over Philadelphia.  The Eagles crushed a very wounded Giants team, whereas the Cowboys look truly hot.  Plus, Romo is great in November, and they're giving him more protection.  Watch out.

Denver (+3) over Pittsburgh.  Many people are jumping off the Broncos bandwagon, but look for their defense to stop the Steelers running game.  They're playing in Denver.  This one will be a defensive battle, so I'll take the points even though it's a small margin.
Category: NFL
Tags: Picks, Week 9
Posted on: October 15, 2009 11:32 am

Week 6 Picks

With a 7-7 finish last week, I'm still hovering around the .500 mark at 39-36.  Not too bad, but not great.  It's funny how you can make a pick that you're on the fence about, and then look brilliant after the game.  Of course, that can backfire too.  Anyways, here are my picks for Week 6 according to the spreads given by CBSSports on Thursday:

Houston (+5) over Cincinnati.  The Bengals have been winning very close games, and the Texans are winning every other week.  They lost last week.  As much as I like the Cardiac Cats, this is going to be a close game and I think the Texans will actually win this one.

Green Bay (-13.5) over Detroit.  I would take the points in this one if it weren't for Megatron's injury.  Their passing game will be significantly hampered by his absence, and they're defense has way too many holes.  Rodgers will put up big numbers.

St. Louis (+10) over Jacksonville.  This is my upset of the week.  The Rams had many opportunities to score, but turned the ball over a few times inside the 10-yard line.  That won't happen again, and Steven Jackson will finally get his first touchdown (and maybe second) in this game.

Baltimore (+3) over Minnesota.  This is a tough one, but I'll take the Ravens because the Vikings haven't quite been tested, and against the better teams they've played, it's been close.  That being said, the Ravens have lost 2 straight... I'll still take the points.

New York Giants (+3) over New Orleans.  Another tough game to pick, seeing as they're both virtually equal excluding home field advantage.  I'll still take the Giants here because of their ability to control the ball (not that the Saints can't).  New York has to watch out for the deep ball though.

Cleveland (+14) over Pittsburgh.  Once again, I'll take the points because the Steelers can't close out games.  They didn't beat the Lions by much, and I don't expect a high scoring game here. 

Carolina (-3.5) over Tampa Bay.  The Panthers and Bucs don't play at the same level of football, even though the Panthers have only won one game.  John Fox won't let it get that bad.  Josh Johnson looked better last week, but I still think the Panthers have too many good players, preventing them from losing this one.

Kansas City (+6.5) over Washington.  The Redskins players are blaming each other for their poor production so far, while the Chiefs looked almost decent last week against the Cowboys.  If the Chiefs were to win one of their upcoming games, this would be the one.

Oakland (+14) over Philadelphia.  Is this my dumbest pick? Probably.  But I will say this: the Eagles defense is not very good, and the Raiders HAVE to show that they can put up points, or this team could end up MUCH worse than the Lions of 2008.

Seattle (-3) over Arizona.  Hasselbeck has lit a fire under this team, and despite Arizona's win last week, their offense isn't clicking like the way it did in the playoffs last year.  Warner's age is a concern too.

Tennessee (+9.5) over New England.  I just can't imagine the Titans going 0-6!  I feel like this is one of those teams where you can't imagine them losing another game so you pick them every week, and they just continue to screw you over.

Buffalo (+10) over New York Jets.  I only pick the Bills here because it's a division game.  I see the Jets managing this game but not blowing them out.  Plus, AFC East division games are usually close ones.

Chicago (+3) over Atlanta.  I like Jay Cutler in this game.  Atlanta is very good at home, but I think they might get shaken up a bit by the Bears defense.  If you disregard the first Bears game, they nearly perfect.

Denver (+4) over San Diego.  I thought I was reading this wrong, but the Chargers are favored.  The Broncos can win this game easily by doing what the Steelers did: control the ball and keep the ball away from Rivers.
Category: NFL
Tags: Picks, Week 6
Posted on: October 8, 2009 11:35 am

Week 5 Pick

Ouch, 4-10 last weekend.  That's brings me to 32-29, barely above average.  I thought I had a general plan that could get me above 50% every week, but it just goes to show you that you can never really beat the system.  I'll try my method for one more week and if it doesn't work, I'll just go back to my guy.  That's how bookeepers make their money!  Anyways, here are my picks for this weekend:

Cincinnati (+8.5) over Baltimore.  I like the Bengals here for two reasons.  One, Carson Palmer has kept his team in the game, every game.  Two, Cedric Benson has been great as far as managing the game and keeping time of possession.  Ravens will probably win, but division games are usually closer.

Cleveland (+5.5) over Buffalo.  The Browns lose Edwards, which I think is a good thing.  Anderson is now the definite starter, and should be.  Plus, the Bills are just going nowhere, picking them is a death wish.  I might be prejudiced because I was forced to start Trent Edwards in fantasy football because McNabb and Hasselbeck are hurt.

Washington (+3.5) over Carolina.  Everything in my gut is telling me to take Carolina, but if you look at the stats, Carolina can't score, and Washington has a pretty good defense.  I don't see Delhomme rebounding here, and every week I tell myself that Washington will break out this week.

Detroit (+10.5) over Pittsburgh.  I'm going to keep on picking against a favored Steelers team if they can't close out games.  I could easily see the Steelers winning a 7-point game here, since the Lions offense is actually pretty good.

Kansas City (+8.5) over Dallas.  I'm a sucker for points, so I had to take this one.  The Cowboys are off rhythm and they're playing in Kansas City.  If Cassel gets that passing game going, they could even win this game.

Oakland (+15.5) over New York Giants.  Though they physically dominate teams like Washington and Kansas City, the score rarely reflects it.  They beat the Chiefs and Redskins by less than 15 points, so I'll take the Raiders in a loss by about 13.

Tampa Bay (+13.5) over Philadelphia.  Am I insane?  I've taken the points in every bet thus far.  In this one, McNabb and Westbrook are back from injury, but their rhythm won't quite be back yet.  Eagles win, Bucs try and keep it close.

Minnesota (-10.5) over St. Louis.  This one won't be close, even considering I'm in a point-taking mood.  Great defense versus a terrible offense.  Favre and AP will get a TD or two a piece, while the Rams could easily get shutout AGAIN.

San Francisco (-2.5) over Atlanta.  The 49ers defense has been spectacular recently, and the absence of Frank Gore hasn't really hurt them.  I don't particularly like the Falcons run game either.

Houston (+5.5) over Arizona.  Andre Johnson will have a huge game in this one, considering the Cardinals can't defend the passing game.  With Hightower looking very one-dimensional, the Texans defense might step up.

Denver (+3.5) over New England.  I probably shouldn't pick against Tom Brady, but the Pats are away and the Broncos defense looks great.  Maybe I've been fooled by Denver's soft schedule, but we'll certainly find out after this game is over.

Jacksonville (even) over Seattle.  The Jaguars are hot, while the Seahawks are reeling.  When David Garrard shows up, MJD doesn't even need to play all too well.  Having Hasselbeck back could make all the difference, and we'll see how the Jaguars respond.

Indianapolis (-3.5) over Tennessee.  I'm shocked by this line.  I know the Titans are truly better than 0-4, but the Colts are one of the best teams in the league.  Peyton is on fire.  I suppose they are playing in Tennessee and it is a division game, which usually makes games closer, but still.  Manning to Wayne?  Come on.

New York Jets (-1.5) over Miami.  Sanchez will bounce back, and Rex Ryan seems like the best bet to stop the wildcat offense.  The Dolphins will undoubtedly run for their lowest amount on Monday Night, and the Jets will remain on top of their division.
Category: NFL
Posted on: October 1, 2009 1:29 pm

Week 4 Picks

12-4 last week!  That brings me to 28-19!  I started a new strategy last week, we'll see if it holds up this week...

Detroit (+9.5) over Chicago.  The Lions have finally found their confidence, and I believe this will be a low-scoring game with the Bears winning.

Cincinnati (-5.5) over Cleveland.  In my opinion, the Browns are the worst team in the NFL.  I don't see them coming close to Palmer and the Bengals.

Oakland (+9.5) over Houston.  Although Russell is terrible, McFadden will get it going this week.  The Texans will probably win, but they won't score a ton of points against Oakland's defense.

Seattle (+8.5) over Indianapolis.  I'm just scooping up points this week.  Peyton won't throw for 4 TDs every week, and I think Seattle stays in this one.  Remember, Freeney isn't playing.

Jacksonville (+2.5) over Tennessee.  I hate to pick against Jeff Fisher, having him go 0-4, but MJD is the man and has the power to lift this team over their division rivals.

New York Giants (-8.5) over Kansas City.  If the Giants are able to limit the Bucs offense to so little, imagine what will happen against the Chiefs?

Baltimore (+1.5) over New England.  The Ravens are all around a better team so far this year, and their defense matches up well against the Patriots.

Washington (-6.5) over Tampa Bay.  This is the Redskins perfect change to get some offense going.  I don't see Tampa Bay winning more than 2 or 3 games this year, although we'll see if Josh Johnson makes an impact or not.

Buffalo (-1.5) over Miami.  Having Marshawn back may be the spark the Bills need.  Plus, his return may help TO get open more often.

New York Jets (+5.5) over New Orleans.  I think the Saints win by a field goal or less.  The Jets defense will find a way to keep it close, but ultimately lose by a late score.

Denver (+2.5) over Dallas.  Playing in Denver, I see the Cowboys offense being average against the Broncos defense.  Marshall is also slowly becoming more of a force.

San Francisco (-9.5) over St. Louis.  Glen Coffee is a good replacement while Gore is hurt, and the Rams barely score.  Eight points per game?  Come on.

San Diego (+6.5) over Pittsburgh.  I don't think the Steelers lose this game, but this is too many points when considering San Diego's offense.

Green Bay (+3.5) over Minnesota.  If they can limit their mistakes, the Packers will win.  I expect this to be a very close game, so I'd rather take the points.

Category: NFL
The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com