Tag:patriots
Posted on: October 4, 2009 1:10 am

## My Mathematically Correct Power Rankings

These are a list of power rankings I came up with that have absolutely no opinion involved. Instead, I used a mathematical equation to determine them. Here's how it works...

Offensive points + total yards + passing yards + rushing yards + points allowed + rushing yards allowed + passing yards allowed + total yards allowed. Divide this total by 8. I would then look at their records and give that a rank as well. Teams that are 3-0 received a rank of 1, 2-1 a rank of 2, 1-2 a rank of 3, and 0-3 a rank of 4. I took the sum of the first equation and added the win/loss rank to their total. The team with the lowest score is the "best" team.

For example, the Ravens are the number one ranked team. Here is their equation:

Baltimore: 2+2+5+5+11+7+17+1 = 50 / 8 = 6.25 + 1 = 7.25

The Ravens are ranked 2nd in the league in offensive points, 2nd in overall yards, 5th in passing yards, 5th in rushing yards, etc.

Here's how the they all turned out:

1. Baltimore: 7.25

2. Denver: 7.625

3. New York Giants: 8.25

4. New Orleans: 8.75

5. New England: 10.875

6. Indianapolis: 11.75

8. New York Jets: 12.125

9. Minnesota: 12.375

10. Dallas: 15.75

11. Pittsburgh: 16.5

12. Seattle: 16.5

13. San Diego: 16.625

14. Chicago: 18

15. San Francisco: 18.625

16. Cincinnati: 18.75

17. Green Bay: 19.125

18. Washington: 19.25

19. Tennessee: 20

20. Arizona: 21.875

21. Atlanta: 22.125

22. Jacksonville: 22.125

23. Miami: 22.25

24. Buffalo: 23

25. Houston: 25

26. Detroit: 26.5

27. Oakland: 27.125

28. Carolina: 27.25

29. Kansas City: 27.875

30. Tampa Bay: 30

31. St. Louis: 30.125

32. Cleveland: 32.875

Category: NFL
Posted on: September 30, 2009 11:53 pm

## NFL Week 3 Observations

A few observations from week three of the NFL season.

Brett Favre still has plenty of magic left. Anyone who questioned why the Vikings brought Favre back should now have their answer. If Sage Rosenfels or Tarvaris Jackson were leading that final drive, do you really think the Vikings would have come out on top? While he topped 300 yards on the day, his overall stat line wasn't extremely impressive based off his 46 passing attempts. The stat lines aren't why he's here, though. His ability to lead the 2 minute drill without looking to the sideline for help will tack on at least another win or two throughout the season. The Vikings also proved they can pass the ball when they need to and don't need to lean on Adrian Peterson to win (85 yards on 19 carries). Now if only their offensive line would come together...

Vernon Davis is finally starting to live up to expectations. When Vernon Davis was drafted, he was seen as being the next truly elite NFL tight end. He's a physical freak that has an unbelievable blend of size and speed. It just goes to show that you can't get by on talent alone in the NFL. With Mike Singletary having a team first approach, he seems to be ready to make the turn. Frank Gore is out the next few weeks which means this team will need to find a new superstar to rely on...Davis could be that guy.

The Philadelphia Eagles have the best stable of quarterbacks in the league. Now I'm not saying they have the best overall quarterback in the league, but it's hard to argue with three ex-pro bowl quarterbacks and a guy named Kolb who throws for over 300 yards every game. Maybe they should stop hogging all the good quarterbacks while poor teams like Cleveland can't even make up their mind on which quarterback they have is worse.

Steve Smith will have a better season than Steve Smith. Hmm...maybe I should clarify. Steve Smith of the Giants will have a better season than Steve Smith of the Panthers . While the Panthers Steve Smith will still have his huge weeks, the Giants Steve Smith will be a consistent week in and week out performer. With Jake Delhomme having the worst season of his career, it's hard to imagine Smith putting up consistent numbers this year...which might upset him. Thank God he's not the kind of player who would punch someone in the face, huh?

The Tennessee Titans are similar to my fantasy team. The team with the best record during the regular season last year has fallen to 0-3. Out of those three games, they've lost by a combined total of 13 points....or about 4 points per game. My fantasy team is 1-2 with my two losses being by two points each. At least I've won a game.

The Baltimore Ravens are scary this year. Who would have guessed that after three weeks the Ravens would have the 2 nd most points scored in the league with a 34.3 ppg average? Joe Flacco is making me think he's a better quarterback than Matt Ryan every week I watch him. While their defense isn't nearly as good as it once was, you can't argue with 17.7 ppg when your team is an offensive juggernaut. I'm looking forward to their game this week against the Patriots as both teams seem like they still have a lot to prove.

I thought I knew what ugly was... and then I saw the Seattle Seahawks glow in the dark jerseys.

Matt Forte is looking more like Cedric Benson . While he was a Bear, that is. Everyone thought this was going to be the week Forte broke out of his slump against a Seahawks team that just gave up over 200 yards rushing to Frank Gore. He still had his best game of the season with 66 yards rushing and 40 yards receiving, but these are still no where near the statistics a top 5 running back should be putting up. The good news? Forte's next five opponents are Detroit, Atlanta, Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Arizona. If he doesn't produce during that span, there's no hope left.

Fred Jackson is Buffalo's biggest offensive threat. With both Terrell Owens and Lee Evans falling out of fantasy relevance, there's only one player on that team worth starting on a regular basis: Fred Jackson. Marshawn Lynch is scheduled to return this week, but it'd be a mistake for the Bills to start him over Jackson. He is for them what Matt Forte was for the Bears last season. It seems their entire offense revolves around him. It will be nice having Lynch back to give Jackson a breather here and there, but until he slows down, there's no reason to have him out of the game.

Detroit is no longer the worst team in the league. In fact, they're not even in the bottom five of the league anymore. They have a solid young quarterback in Matthew Stafford , one of the leagues best receivers in Calvin Johnson , and a great young running back in Kevin Smith . They still have a long ways to go, but at least they finally seem to be headed in the right direction.

The Houston Texans will disappoint again this season. The Texans are one of those teams that seems to have high expectations coming into every season no matter how terrible their previous season was. It's hard to win games when you rank 30 th in rush yards and 32 nd in rush yards allowed per game. With the Colts playing their usual dominant football, the best they could hope for is a wild card spot...which the 11-5 Patriots missed out on last season.

The Bengals are the most improved team of 2009. Being a Vikings fan, all I wanted to do was laugh at Packer fans for their team losing to the embarrassing Cincinnati Bengals. Then they had to go out and beat the defending world champions. Well...there goes that idea. The Bengals are a circus catch away from being 3-0 and are suddenly a team that's worth paying attention to. It'll still be hard for them to make the playoffs because of their tough division and being in the AFC, but it's at least attainable this year.

Don't get too excited, Broncos fans. Last season the Broncos started out 3-0 as well and ended the season 8-8. Now they have Kyle Orton instead of Jay Cutler , have beaten teams with a combined record of 3-6, and have pushover Josh McDaniels instead of Mike Shanahan. At least they're still in the AFC West.

That's all for this week. Look for more observations next week.

Category: NFL
Posted on: September 17, 2009 12:02 am

## Week 1 Observations

A few observations from week one of the NFL season.

Breakouts for 3rd year WR's aren't looking good. There were a lot of prominent wide receivers entering this season that had high potential of breaking out. The 3rd year is typically when wide receivers see their biggest increase in production but this year looks like the exception to the rule. Anthony Gonzalez was a huge sleeper in drafts this year as he slipped into the starting role opposite of Reggie Wayne with Marvin Harrison retiring. Add that to this being his 3rd season and having Peyton Manning throwing to him and it's hard not to expect big things. That was, until, he hurt his knee and is out 4-6 weeks. Dwayne Bowe of the Chiefs was also entering his 3rd year, had a new quarterback in Matt Cassel, and a new head coach in Todd Haley who has been known for developing wide receivers in the past. Now Matt Cassel is hurt and they fired their offensive coordinator shortly before the start of the season. He put up decent week one stats with 40 yards and a touchdown, but he's still not a sure thing by any means. Calvin Johnson was a beast already last season in his 2nd year, but now he has a rookie quarterback that threw for 205 yards, 0 TD's and 3 picks while trailing a below average Saints defense the whole game. Take away one 64 yard gain and he totaled 2 catches for 26 yards. Then there's Tedd Ginn who was barely even looked at and Steve Smith. Out of this whole group, Steve Smith of the Giants appears to be the most likely to increase his stats by the largest percentage as he was targeted 6 times, double the next best receiver.

Bad franchises are cursed. There's no other way to explain it. When you think of terrible franchises, three that stand out are Buffalo, Oakland, and Cincinnati...and look what happened. All three of these teams played well the whole game and should have won. Buffalo loses to New England on a fumbled kickoff return at the end of the game, Oakland completely dominates San Diego the entire game but the Chargers throw up a game winning touchdown with 18 seconds remaining, and the Bungals lose off a circus tip catch with 11 seconds left.

The Packers are completely different from last season. Last year, the Packers went 6-10 with a great offense and a terrible defense. This year, in comes Dom Capers, and he looks to have turned this defense around with his 3-4 scheme and aggressive style. You can credit some of their performance to how terrible Cutler performed, but you can also say the reason he played so poorly was because there was a Packer in his grill almost every play. Meanwhile, their offense looks to be declining this year. They still have enough star power with Rodgers, Jennings, Driver, and Grant to do well, but none of that matters if they don't fix their offensive line. Specifically they need help at center and right tackle. Jason Spitz just won the starting job in late August and right tackle Allen Barbre was consistently letting Bears defensive end Adewale Ogunleye through. The Packers have potential to do well this season, but that won't happen if they don't fix their offensive line.

The Bears season is over. You might think I'm crazy for saying anyone's season is over after one week, but it's true. It's bad enough to lose your first game against a division rival but when you lose the leader on your defense in Brian Urlacher for the season, that makes it much worse. Even more than his talent, his leadership will be missed on the field. Throw on top of that a quarterback who threw 4 interceptions and virtually no running game, and you're in trouble. If they were in almost any other division, they'd still be contenders for a playoff spot. However, in the tough NFC North, they're not going to do better than either the Vikings or the Packers this season.

The Madden Curse is real. Every year, a new Madden video game is released with a top NFL player on the cover. That player is then cursed with having a decline in production the following year, usually by an injury. If you want to read more on this, and how true it's been, check it out on Wikipedia. This years Madden has Troy Polamalu and Larry Fitzgerald on the cover. Polamalu went down with an injury that has him out 3-6 weeks. While Fitzgerald had a good outing with 71 yards and a touchdown, it's not unrealistic to see a dip in his overall production this year if Kurt Warner doesn't start looking better (or if Warner gets hurt).

Michael Turner is not a #1 fantasy running back. All off season I've been predicting Turner will bust this season. He crossed the 370 touch threshold last season and, as history suggests, he will have a sharp decline in production this year. In the last 20 years, there have been 17 running backs to cross this threshold including Turner. Of those 17 running backs, only one (Tomlinson) has come within 100 yards of their production the following year and 8 of those 17 running backs were injured. On top of that, the Falcons had one of the easiest schedules in the league last year. Most of Turner's production came from the bottom 5 defenses in the league. This year, the Falcons have one of the tougher schedules in the NFL and plan to throw more with Matt Ryan developing and Tony Gonzalez joining the team. Week one against Miami...65 yards and no touchdowns. Expect more of the same throughout the year (if he stays healthy) for Michael Turner.

Brett Favre will not end this season like he did last year. Favre had 522 passing attempts for the Jets last season. Put Favre's 21 passing attempts from week one over the course of a full season and that puts him at 336. While there will be games where he'll throw more than 21 attempts, it's obvious that Minnesota is still a run first team and will limit Favre's throws.

Jake Delhomme is the worst starting quarterback in the NFL. I don't think I need to explain myself for this one.

The Super Bowl Curse will haunt the Cardinals this year. The Super Bowl Curse says that if you make it to the Super Bowl and lose, you will miss the playoffs the next season. A lot of people considered the Cardinals making the Super Bowl in itself a fluke last year, but now they've lost their offensive coordinator, Todd Haley. It was apparent that this offense isn't nearly the same unit without him and we all know Arizona can't rely on their defense to win games.

Terrell Owens and Trent Edwards are not going to be friends. For the first time in his career, Owens is on a below average team with a below average quarterback. In week one, Owens only had 2 receptions for 46 yards and was already yelling at his teammates in the huddle at the end of the game. If Buffalo gets off to a bad start, expect Owens to pout and play only as hard as he wants to.

The Patriots defense is no longer a top unit. This is a completely different defense with Richard Seymour going to the Raiders and Teddy Bruschi retiring. They made people like Trent Edwards and Fred Jackson look like pro bowlers. While the Patriots offense is still going to be formidable, it's hard to consider them Super Bowl favorites anymore.

Tony Romo doesn't need T.O. That's for sure. Any questions about this guy's ability without Owens was put to rest this week as he went off for 353 yards and 3 touchdowns. He still has decent options in Roy Williams and Jason Witten to throw the ball to and an excellent running game, so don't be surprised if he ends up being a top 5 fantasy QB this year.

That's all for this week...more to come later.

-Scott Neuenfeldt
Category: NFL

The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com