Posted on: October 22, 2009 5:24 pm
Edited on: October 23, 2009 5:11 pm
 

NFL Week 7 Picks

After coming off what can only be described as my toughest week yet, I thank all of you who continue to support this blog and hope to bounce back this week after dropping to third in my league.  Like I stated before, the room for error in picking against the spread is small and teams like the Eagles, Jet, Steelers, and Jags certainly did not help.  Not to mention the Vikings falling apart and giving up 21 points in the 4th quarter felt like a stab to the heart.  With that said, a new week, and a fresh start.  This may be the best week in football yet as the matchups look like great games.  Tough to pick, but great to watch.  I've got some fliers and a couple of what appear to be no brainers, only time will tell.  Thanks for all the comments and support, and as always, best of luck this week.
Update: A couple of picks have changed this week, given some last minute news, particuliarly in the Browns & Packers, and Giants & Cardinals games.   Enjoy!
-M

Chargers vs. Chiefs
San Diego breaking my heart this past week versus Denver.  A perfect trap was scenario for them with a trap game for the Broncos and they choked at home after coming off a bye week.  They have given up 72 points in their last two games and look like the second worst team in the division.  The good news for them is that the worst team in the division is next up.  Back to the bad news, the Chiefs have looked very good in the past few weeks and have won and covered as I have suspected they would with Matt Cassel playing lights out.  The Chiefs even got their first win, albeit versus the horrid Redskins.  I am running out of patience with the Chargers but have to believe they will rebound this week and will win the game.  Covering is another thing.  They beat the Chief last year by one point both times, and this year’s Chief team is better.  While the Chiefs record is poor, they have actually played pretty good and have kept most games close.  I take the 4.5 points
 
Colts vs. Rams
The Rams gave Jacksonville all they could handle this past week and with a line of +9 going and the Jags potent offense I expected a blowout.  I think it has more to do with the Jags playing like an inconsistent team than the Rams actually improving.  Avery is a hell of a receiver for the team and Steven Jackson may be the second best running back to Adrian Peterson, but we may never know as he has no line to help him.  Mark Bulger returned last week to help the offense out.  No sense in talking about the Colts, we all know what they are capable of and that my friends is scoring.  I have a feeling that Peyton will score at will here and will be surprised if they don’t cover the 13.

Bengals vs. Bears
This is going to be a very tough game.  Both teams coming off a loss with the Bengals falling into that trap game versus Houston, and the Bears losing to Atlanta on Sunday night.  The Bengals lost to a potent Houston team and their secondary was embarrassed allowing Matt Schaub to move the ball freely and toss 4 TD’s last week.  Jay Cutler may be better than Schaub, but he certainly doesn’t have the weapons to duplicate that performance.  The Bengals are playing at home and Cedric Benson is going to be motivated to exact some revenge on his former team who he claims tried to “black ball” him.  I quite frankly expected more out of the Bears after having two weeks to prepare for Atlanta.  Now traveling with short rest to play a very motivated Bengals team, I don’t like the match up for them.  Everyone is jumping on the Bears this week, I’m going the other way.  I like Cincy this week and I will give the low number of 1.5.

Packers vs. Browns
I don’t think that the Browns have necessarily improved, I just think that the Steelers defense isn’t what it was last year and people have been able to move the ball.  On the flip side, the Packers beat up on the Lions who were playing well going into the game, but were outmanned with Calvin Johnson and Matthew Stafford out.  Tough to gauge what you have with the Packers.  You know what you have with the Browns however, and that is one of the most dysfunctional teams in the NFL and now they all appear to be suffering from the flu.  Green Bay has had trouble covering all season and they have stuck it to me all year.  With that said, I’m going to take the lowly Browns who are playing at home to keep it closer than the 7 points.  I know it sounds nuts right now, but everyone is taking the Packers and sometimes you have to take a flier and go the opposite way.  Besides, the Browns play tough at home and at least they will be rested from a week of sitting around from H1N1.  I change my pick to Green Bay as the Browns being out all week will affect their ability to be properly prepared, not to mention a recent car accident to a defensive back has their secondary up in the air.

Steelers vs. Vikings
The Steelers have had trouble stopping opposing offenses all season.  They have also had a tough time covering the spread.  This week they give up 4 points to the Vikings who have done just about everything right this year (Except fall apart in the 4th quarter and kill those who picked them to cover last week….not that I’m bitter or anything).  Because this seems to be the matchup of the week, let’s take a look at this from a logical perspective.  The Steelers offense is potent with Hines Ward, Rashard Mendenhall, Santonio Holmes, and of course Big Ben.  The problem with the offense is that they haven’t played anyone.  They have beaten up on Cleveland, Detroit, San Diego (only 2 wins…believe it), and Tennessee.  They have lost to quality teams in Chicago and Cincy.  Passing on Minnesota is not the same as Cleveland and Ben won’t throw for 450 yards. Plus he gets sacked a ton and who has one of the sack happy defenses in the league…that’s right, the Vikings!  On the other side, the 4th quarter defensive meltdown, while agitating to me because it cost me, I believe is an aborition and I think they will be motivated to beat the defending champs.  The Steelers are missing Aaron Smith on the D-line to slow one of the best rushing teams in the league with “All Day” Adrian Peterson in the backfield.  Kirschke, and Polamalu are both hurting and have not practiced this week.  Everyone is taking the Steelers and talking about how the Vikings haven’t played anyone.  When the sheep go in one direction I go the other.  I am going to take the Vikings the 4 points and hope Jared Allen has a big day.

Patriots vs. Buccaneers
The Pats crushed the Titans as I thought they would, in fact they beat them so bad had Jeff Fisher wearing a Peyton Manning jersey this past week just to feel like a winner.  The Bucs played well last week and I have been saying that kid Johnson is a player.  They came up short and didn’t cover, but it was still a worthy flier.  This week they have the Patriots coming to town …oh wait, they are coming to Town in another country!  Poor guys will be flying over the Atlantic Ocean for a butt kicking.  We could get into analysis, doesn’t this seem relatively easy?  It’s Tom Freaking Brady with an offense running on all cylinders against a horrid defense.  The Brits will be saying “Beckham who?” after watching Brady.  I know 14.5 is a ton of points to give and I wouldn’t recommend it, but Bill Belichick runs up the score and doesn’t mercifully end any beating, so I expect them to cover. 

Texans vs. 49er’s
The 49ers’s should having come off they bye week should be refreshed and prepared to take on the Texans.  Not to mention they get Frank Gore back and now it appears Crabtree will get the start at WR.  I’m not sure of the impact he will have as a rookie in his first game.  With all of those positives for the 49er’s it might surprise you to know that I’m favoring the Texans this week.  They seem to have ignited on offense since that second half versus the Cardinals and the defense surprisingly has cut in half what they were giving up in their first 3 games.  They beat a very good Bengals team last week that had a good rusher and pass attack themselves with Carson Palmer and Cedric Benson.  With a defense playing better and what appears to be a high powered offense with Andre Johnson just a man among boys, I think the Texans, playing at home can take on San Francisco and their pedestrian passing attack.  I give the 3 points.

Jets vs. Raiders
People are going to think I’m a Raider hater.  The truth is I consider them one of the NFL’s most traditional franchises and I’m saddened by their demise.  With that said, this sorry sack of a team beat the power house Eagles.  What???  Okay I didn’t get that win last week, but obviously with those types of losses what do you expect?  It was a tough week for me.  The Eagles played like choking dogs.  The Jets on the other side played like choking dogs themselves and loss to the Bills.  I really want to take the Raiders here who have played with pride except that game against the Giants, but I still hate JaMarcus Russell although he played much better last week.  So, what to do?  Pick the team with promise that has underachieved in recent weeks or the poor team that has overachieved recently?  The passing game for both teams is terrible and Sanchez and Russell rank amongst the lowest QB’s in the league.  And while the Raiders are on an upswing after taking it to the Eagles they have lost by more than 20 points three times this year.  The Jets have some real motivation here after looking bad. With Kris Jenkins out for the Jets they should still win this game.  This may be a defensive struggle as both teams have good ones.  Not to mention the Jets historically have had trouble playing the Raiders.  At the end of the day I think the Raiders are capable of keeping it close and covering 6.5. 

Bills vs. Panthers
Trent Edwards is out for the Bills and quite frankly I don’t know if this is a bad thing for them as he has been terrible.  The team got a big win versus the Jets last week.  This surprised me quite a bit considering they are really banged up on defense.  I think it has more to do with those pesky divisional rivalry games than anything.  Two lousy teams but Carolina is playing at home with a better and healthier defensive and offensive squad.  The kicker here is that they are only giving up 1 point.  I hate to say ‘no-brainer’ here because I always seem to lose those games, but I will go with the Panthers as I think the Bills will be flat after that big win last week.

Saints vs. Dolphins
Wow, was I wrong about last week’s game.  The Saints absolutely crushed my beloved Giants and showed they are to be reckoned with.  They are outstanding and impressive to watch.  I suspected the Giants would have trouble defending the pass, but goodness that was embarrassing.  On the flip side, I have been banging on Henne all season, but after watching his start against the Jets I am a reformist.  That kid throws a great ball and has a hell of an arm.  I take back all my little snide comments about him.  I think this is a trap game for the Saints.  It’s going to be hot, on turf, coming off an emotional win, playing against a motivated Miami team off a bye week.  The world is going to take the Saints this week after what they did to the G-men, but I think Miami may be a tougher matchup.  They are solid rushing and it won’t be a track field for the Saint receivers.  I can’t say the “wildcat” is hookie as few teams have been able to stop it.  Miami is extremely efficient and effective on offense and should control the ball and the clock.  They may lose to the Saints ultimately, but it will be more like when they lost to the Colts after holding the ball for 45 minutes.  There is a reason why this line is so low considering how well the Saints have been playing.  With everyone going in one direction I am taking my next biggest flier and going with Miami to cover the 6.5

Cowboys vs. Falcons
The Falcons have looked impressive this season and haven’t given up a sack in a 3-4 games.  Roddy White is a stud and has come up big in the last few games with Matt Ryan playing like an old veteran.  The Cowboys on the other hand have only beaten crummy teams this season and barely got a win versus the Chiefs before their bye week.  With that said, the Cowboys are coming off a bye week, the pass rush has improved, they have an upcoming star in Miles Austin, their rushing is solid, and they are playing for way more than the Falcons this week.  They really need this win to keep pace with the rest of the NFC east.  The Falcons are hurting in the secondary and they didn’t look too hot in that Chicago game.  In fact I picked the Bears to win last week and almost got away with it.  This week, if you couldn’t already tell, I’m taking the Cowboys who are playing at home and are highly motivated for this game.  I give the 4 points.

Giants vs. Cardinals
What’s your reward NY for not being able to stop the pass and giving up close to 500 in offense to New Orleans last week?  The pass happy Cardinals with Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and ex-Giant castaway Kurt Warner.  Remember he played for them?  How time flies.  It could be the fact that my judgment is clouded by my loyalty to the Giants, but I think the defense will be inspired to perform better.  A tough draw for the Jints with Arizona playing well against the rush.  My concern with Arizona has been their inconsistency.  I’m not sure who is coming to play.  At the very least you know what you’re getting with the Giants.  Is Arizona capable of beating them? Yes and by a wide margin if the Giants can’t stop the pass.  I hate this game and would steer clear if I were a betting man.  But technically because I am a betting man, I think the Giants will win and cover the 7 as Boldin is now questionable and the winds will be swirling in Giants Stadium for that Arizona passing game.

Eagles vs. Redskins
Thank you Eagles.  If I didn’t already dislike you because I’m a Giants fan, than thanks for coming up with the worst performance of the season and not only coming up short to the Raiders but not covering as well.  I suppose I really should thank you for losing and not gaining ground in the division.  With all that said, the Eagles truly are an awesome complete team and I’m still scratching my head over that loss last week.  I think they are looking to make someone pay, and unfortunately for Jim Zorn it is going to be his Redskins who will most likely be his last game.  That team is in a tailspin and coming into a divisional rival who just got the crap kicked out of them by the worst team in the NFL.  Donovan McNabb and his weapons will come to play this week.  The Eagles are giving 7 and I’m going with it.

In summary for those who hate to read:
  • KC +4.5
  • Colts -13
  • Bengals -1.5
  • Packers -7
  • Vikings +4
  • Patriots -14.5
  • Houston -3
  • Raiders +6.5
  • Panthers -1
  • Dolphins +6.5
  • Cowboys -4
  • Giants -7
  • Eagles -7










Category: NFL
Tags: NFL Picks
 
Posted on: October 14, 2009 5:36 pm
Edited on: October 16, 2009 5:28 pm
 

NFL Week 6 Picks

I HAVE MADE 3 CHANGES. I hate to waiver on any of my picks, especially after posting but when you post early it poses some disadvantages when looking closely at the games.  After a good deal of thought I have made 3 changes with justifications of course and I wanted to post this as soon as possible.

I apologize if this has caused any confusion, but I submitted my final sheet and I wanted my post to be consistent for anyone keeping score.  I appreciate all of your messages and postings.  The changes are listed below the original selected game and are in bold.  As always, best of luck.

-M

After several requests, I’m posting this as early as I can.  It’s a little tough to do because it leaves very little time scope out the games. After a tough couple of weeks going 9-7 and 7-7, took some of my pride back by going 10-4 against the spread and 10-4 straight up.  My losses included Pitt covering the 10.5, the Jets in that painful loss, and Carolina missing by ½ point.  Those three games prevented me from a nice 13-1 week, but oh well.  This is a really tough week to call and I’ve got most of the favorites playing at home this week.  I hope to keep the streak alive especially after retaining my lead in my pool.  I appreciate all of the offline comments as well as the online criticisms and most of all your reading.  Best of luck.

- M

Chiefs vs. Redskins

The Redskins were clearly a different team in the second half of that game versus the Panthers last week.  With Chris Samuels hurt and the offensive line pieced together with a mismatch of tackles playing guards and vice versa, this team offensively is a mess.  Jason Campbell still has some weapons in Clinton Portis (when he’s not fighting with Mike Sellers) and Santana Moss, but this team is banged up and I don’t see the troops rallying to help Jim Zorn keep his job by playing at a higher level.  He is clearly on his way out and add a new offensive coordinator to the mix, not selected by him, can you spell disaster?  This team has become a train wreck.  The Chiefs on the other hand have done some nice things.  Sure they haven’t been able to win a game, but keep in mind 3 out of their 5 losses are to the Ravens, Giants, and Eagles.  Yes, that loss to Oakland is a black eye, but they played the Cowboys tough and almost got the win.  Matt Cassel has looked better and better.  I take the Chiefs for the upset and the 6.5 points.

Bengals vs. Texans

The Texans are one of the most frustrating teams in the NFL.  The Texans are the model of inconsistency.  First they can’t score, and then they can’t be stopped.  The only thing that is consistent is there terrible defense. Cincy on the other hand has been very consistent defensively.  Cincy is coming off a huge win against the Ravens and are playing at home this week.  I don’t care for picking this game because you don’t know which Texans team will show up.  The Texans are certainly capable of beating the Bengals, but after a crushing defeat last week against the Cardinals coupled with their inability to stop a rolling Bengals offense with a real rushing attack in Cedric Benson, I think the Bengals cover the 4.5 points they are giving.

CHANGE #1

This game bothered me since I originally picked it, and even the line has recently moved.  For some reason I get the feeling that this going the other way given how big Cincy has been playing.  They have also played two huge games in a row against division rivals.  I think they are due for a let down and the Texans showed me something last week against Arizona.  I'm switching here and taking the Texans and will take the 5 points.


Steelers vs. Browns

The Steelers didn’t cover for me last week.  Thanks, that loss was one of my 4 losses for the week and I just missed it by a couple of points.  Enough about my whining, the Steelers are going to be missing Aaron Smith, but hopefully Polamalu will be back.  I feel like I have been saying that for weeks now, but it may actually happen this week.  With that said the defense, despite giving up some points were sack machines last week and will give the Browns more than they are capable of handling right now.  The good news is that Braylon Edwards is playing like a legitimate #1 WR, the bad news for the Browns he is playing for the Jets.  The Browns are a sinking ship, and when I said I thought the team played better with Derek Anderson, I certainly expected more than a few field goals.  Let the Mangini mutiny begin!  The players hate this guy and can’t wait to get out.  Even Brady Quinn has supposedly put his house up for sale and he hasn’t even been traded yet.  The Steelers offense should have no problems moving the ball and playing at home the defense should dominate.  Steelers cover the 14 points.

Vikings vs. Ravens

The Ravens have lost 2 games in a row now and have lost a bit of that early luster.  Their losses of course have been a couple of heartbreakers to the Patriots and the Bengals.  By the way, that shot by Ray Lewis on Ocho Cinco is one of the best highlight hits you will ever see, simply awesome.  The Vikings have been rolling on the other hand, and crushed the hapless Rams last week.  Two top tier teams and tough one to pick. The Vikings are giving only 2.5 at home which means it’s virtually a pick’em.  I am taking the Vikings and giving the 2.5 because they have had an easier couple of weeks.  This will be a very physical game and one of the weeks best.  Both teams are well balanced with passing, rushing, and defense.  If Brett Favre can remain consistent, the Vikes have the small advantage because they will be playing at home and had an easier time last week.

Jaguars vs. Rams

The NFL should pay people to watch this game.  This may be the worst game of the week.  The Jags got trampled by the Seahawks last week 41-0 and the Rams lost 38-10.  The Jags unlike the Rams actually have wins this year and at times have looked like a pretty good team.  I completely whiffed on the Jags vs. Seattle last week as I thought they were turning a corner, but if your going to lose better to go down in flames.  The Jags have Mike Sims-Walker coming back this week after an unknown team suspension.  With their #1 WR threat back the team should easily get back on track versus the Rams.  Poor Spagnuolo has to be crying himself to sleep after leaving the Giants for this group.  With virtually no offense besides Steven Jackson, and a defense seemingly incapable of stopping anyone, I just don’t see the Rams staying with this team.  I take the Jags who are playing at home and give the 9.5 points.

Saints vs. Giants

Everything in me says to pick the Saints here.  They are an offensive juggernaut, they are coming off a bye week, they are playing at home, their head coach is familiar with the opponent from his Dallas days, Jeremy Shockey is looking for revenge, and their defense has been stout, but I just can’t.  I don’t think teams fully understand how physical the Giants are until they play them.  These are men amongst men.  They are disciplined, and they too are well balanced.  With a good rushing attack they may be able to keep the Saints off the field and though Brees will get rid of the ball in a hurry and avoid the sack those receivers will not have all day to get open.  Both teams have something to prove and with the Saints giving only 3 points at home this is virtually a pick’em.  I think the Giants are the overall better team with a better rushing attack (especially with Ahmad Bradshaw), and defensive and offensive lines.  The only concern is the Giant secondary, but I will take the Jints and the 3 points.

Panthers vs. Buccaneers

Yet another ugly game in the NFL this week.  Has anyone seen DeAngelo Williams?  This guys was unstoppable last season and has disappeared this year.  The guy has 220 yards rushing all season.  Perhaps they should give him the ball more considering Jake Delhomme has thrown 8 picks and only 3 interceptions.  While the Panthers got a big win last week after rallying past the Redskins, I think it might be an indictment against the Redskins and not because the Panthers magically turned it around.  This is a tough game to pick.  It’s like trying to decide exactly which team will play worse this week.  Even though the Buccaneers were squashed by the Eagles last week they have played decent against similarly bad teams.  Their beatings have come from the Giants and Eagles in recent weeks.  Tampa’s Josh Johnson has something, has looked good at times, and they are playing at home this week.  I’m going to take a flier and go with the Bucs who will feel like this is a vacation after their recent competition. Going on a limb with the Bucs and will take the 3.5.

Packers vs. Lions -

The Packers have handedly beaten one team this year in the Rams.  The Packers have had a tough time piecing together a front line that has forced Aaron Rodgers to run for his life.  Ryan Grant has had no room to run and this team really needed the past bye week to lick their wounds after a disappointing MNF showing against the Vikings.  The Lions have only imploded once this season and that was the second have of that miserable Chicago game.  They lost to a tough Steelers team by 8 points last week, beat the sorry Redskins, and lost to the power house Vikes by 14 points.  The Lions can do some things and are starting to believe.  While I don’t think this is the week for their second victory I think they cover the 13.5. With Matthew Stafford still hurting and possibly out, the same for Calvin Johnson, that leaves the cupboard a little bare for the Lions.  Green Bay is looking to get on track and should get the victory, but two touchdowns seems unlikely.

Eagles vs. Raiders

Raider fan was a little upset last week because I called the Raiders the worst team in football.  That small squabble was quickly followed up by a complete annihilation by my beloved Giants (Yes, I am a Giants homer for those who have wondered.)  In fact the Giants put up 16 points with their backups and ultimately won 44-7.  And if not for a questionable pass interference call the Raiders would not have put any points on the board.  Raider fan has yet to offer a rebuttal to my comments last week, oh well.  JaMarcus Russell is not an NFL quarterback, their head coach Tom Cable is looking at league discipline, and their best rusher is still out.  The team is not just a sinking ship, it is a submarine.  With that said, I would pay handedly to see them beat the Eagles (I did say I was a Giants fan).  The fact is that the Eagles are one of the leagues best.  They have offensive fire power and likely the leagues most under appreciated quarterback.  The Eagle defense is stout and will be sack happy with Statue Russell awaiting them.This is going to be another long day for the black and silver.  I happily give the 14 points.

Seahawks vs. Cardinals

Tough one to pick here. Much like the Bengals vs. Texans.  You have the Cardinals who are very inconsistent, but very capable of beating anyone versus a team who looked like world beaters last week when the crushed the Jaguars.  Arizona did not look good in the second half in that game versus the Texans.  Side note: Beanie Wells is starting to complain about carries….why?  He’s only averaging a little more than 3 yards per run, not exactly AP numbers.  Well, despite having a superior offense, I am not confident in Arizona and will take the home team, just because they are playing better and because they will be playing on their home field.  Matt Hasselbeck is back and paired with Nate Burleson and TJ “Housyourdaddy” the team looked really good.  The only thing keeping this team back is the massive injuries to the offensive line.  Could be a bad sign, but some how I keep underestimating this team and they manage to play it up. I give the 2.5 and take the home team Seahawks.

CHANGE #2

The destruction of the Jags seems to me now as more of an indictment on the Jags than it was a coming out party for the Seahawks.  The the Cardinals are very inconsistent, this team is still a better team on paper and will put up a much bigger fight than Jacksonville.  Seattle is very banged up on the offensive line and I think they are going to have problems and I just can't ignore that.  They are playing at home and only giving up 2.5 which tells me something is up and I'm not going against Vegas.  I think this game is ripe for the picking and I'm going the other way from my original thought.  I will take the Cardinals and the 2.5.

Jets vs. Bills

This game currently has no line.  It is going to take a pretty big line for me not to take the Jets this week.  The Bills are terrible and will be even worse with two recent injuries to their best linebackers, Kawika Mitchell and Marcus Buggs.  Both will be out for the rest of the season. Trent Edwards is bad, just bad.  If you can’t get the ball to two top flight guys in Owens and Evans its not a good sign.  Worse, if you can’t score more than 3 points against the Browns, then you are really, really bad.  The Jets on the other hand will bounce back after getting punched in the mouth by a bigger bully in the Dolphins on Monday.  Not to mention I’m sure they feel bad for letting me down when I picked them (Don’t worry Rex, I still won my pool this week).  They are in the mood to inflict some pain and it will be against the Bills.  Poor Bills.  I guess that’s what you get for having a head coach named Dick.

Patriots vs. Titans

The Patriots fresh off a loss to the Broncos will be more than ready to take on a dreadful Titans team who still hasn’t found a win this season.  Unfortunately for the Titans it will be even harder this week as they lose yet another defensive back in Nick Harper.  Can you say good times for Brady, Moss, and Welker.  Not to mention Big Brain Bill will be looking to flex his coaching muscle after being side swiped by his pupil last week.  The Titans just don’t have enough and got crushed again last week, this time by the Colts.  I don’t see a better outcome for them this week and Jeff Fisher I’m sure can’t wait until the season is over.  I take the Pats and give the 9.

Falcons vs. Bears

When I thought the Falcons would win, I didn’t think they would obliterate a good 49er team.  Chicago is another good team and is coming off a bye week.  Tough one to pick as the Bears have kept it close versus good teams and walloped the Lions a couple of weeks ago.  I just think the Falcons are going to get on a roll and the bye week did wonders for getting the team back on track from what doesn’t look like such a bad loss to the Patriots a few weeks back.  Roddy White, Michael Turner, and Matt Ryan will have a chance to show America who they are as they get the lone stage on Sunday night at home.  I think this will be too much for a Bears team that has some awesome weapons of their own in Matt Forte and Jay Cutler.  Reluctantly I give the 3 points and take the Falcons for the win.

CHANGE #3

A very sneaky pick here and I feel like I almost missed it.  I think it has gone under the radar because the Bears have been under the radar.  Originally I placed too much on that game at the 49ers and overlooked that the Bears are a really good team with a bye week.  So with 2 weeks to prepare for this game I think Jay Cutler is going to do quite well.  Therefore, I change the pick to the Bears getting 3 points.

Chargers vs. Broncos

San Diego Super Chargers have been anything but.  The Broncos who were supposed to be rebuilding and terrible have been anything but.  The Broncos are for real and the addition of Brian Dawkins was an A+.  That guy brings serious attitude to the defense.  And yes I will eat some humble pie and say that Kyle Orton has looked exceptionally well, despite all my jokes.  It must be the sweet ‘stache. With Eddie Royal coming out last week and the man beast in Brandon Marshall, this team is legit.  Everything says take the Broncos.  They are even getting 4 points!  I think this is Vegas bait.  Maybe they know something.  The Chargers still have tremendous weapons in Vincent Jackson, Gates, and even a hurt LT is better than most.  And with Phillip Rivers they are capable of putting points up on anyone.  I think the bye week helped this team may be a tad angry after the GM called them “soft”.  I will go against every bone in my body, against the fray and take the Chargers for the win and to cover the 4 points.

TO AVOID ANY CONFUSION & FOR THOSE KEEPING TRACK HERE IS WHAT I HAVE:

  • CHIEFS +6.5
  • TEXANS +5
  • STEELERS -14
  • VIKINGS -2.5
  • JAGUARS -9.5
  • GIANTS +3
  • TAMPA BAY +3.5
  • LIONS +13.5
  • EAGLES -14
  • CARDINALS +2.5
  • JETS -9.5
  • PATRIOTS -9
  • BEARS +3
  • CHARGERS -4

 






Category: NFL
Posted on: October 10, 2009 10:31 am
Edited on: October 10, 2009 10:42 am
 

NFL Week 5 Picks

I appreciate all of the views and off line comments and hope you continue to read my blog.  I also know that I better start producing or I’m going to start losing some of my credibility.   After a monster start to the season, I took a couple of gambles and it didn’t pay off to say the least.  Last week breaking even.  With a fresh start and what seems to be a pretty weak week in the NFL I’m here to turn it around.  Here are my picks for the week.

Vikings vs. Rams – No brainer here.  Case of Vikes being a top NFC juggernaut and the Rams are well…the Rams.  Favre and Peterson will take it to them.  The Viking’s pass rush is too much for a sputtering Rams offense that features one guy in Steven Jackson .  The Rams got crushed 35-0 by the 49ers and I don’t see a better scenario here for them.  I take the Vikes straight up and give the 9.5.

Cowboys vs. Chiefs – Romo has one touchdown in his last 3 games and has looked dreadful.  Roy Williams is hurting after taking a huge shot to the ribs last week and may be up in the air this week.  Barber appears to be back and the Cowboys will have a chance to get the offense going this week against the Chiefs.  While the Chiefs got whacked last week against the Giants they seemed to have a little moxy at the end of the game and played better on the offensive side of the ball.  While I think the Cowboys should win this one I think the Chiefs will cover the 8.5.

Panthers vs. Redskins – You may want to do something other than wasting 3-4 hours of your life to watch this game.  You will never get that time back and I’m sure you can find something more productive to do.  With that said, who thinks that the Panthers are going 0-4?  I don’t and I think this is a team that needed this early bye week to get focused.  Jake Delhomme has been terrible, but I think he turns it around a bit this week and the Panthers still have great weapons in Williams and Steve Smith ….who is becoming the other Steve Smith with his play.  Not his fault I might add as he is constantly being doubled team.  The Redskins on the other hand barely beat an awful Tampa Bay team and lost to Detroit the week prior.  I take the Panthers straight up and give the 3.5.

Eagles vs. Tampa Bay – Eagles are coming off a bye week, playing at home, McNabb and Westbrook have returned, and everything has lined up this week for these guys to crush Tampa.  I could be wrong and this could blow up in my face, but I go with the much better team and hope they cover the large point spread.  I’d rather be on that side than rooting for Tampa to just hang in there.  I look at this much like the Giants game that crushed them a few weeks ago and less than the Redskins game which was a close one.  Look for the Eagles defense who likes the blitz to come often and hard at Johnson getting start number 2 in his career.  I give the 15 points.

Giants vs. Oakland – I have changed my opinion and now have selected Oakland as the worst team and no longer the Browns .  With a God awful QB in J. Russell, their head coach under the microscope for knocking people out, their top runner in McFadden who only has 146 yards rushing the whole season anyways.  All in all, not adding up to a good week for the Raiders .  Eli practiced today and the Giants should continue to roll.  Russell will be running for his life and Michael Bush will have no where to run.  Just like the Eagle game…I will go with the superior team and pull for them to cover the 16.

Bills vs. Browns – Cleveland showed some signs of life in the second half last week and though Manginius is clearly not for one reason or another this offense is better with D. Anderson.  This game falls under my “find something else to do for 3-4 hours”.  Life is short.  I have taken the Bills after their tough loss at New England keeping some belief that they are better than they really are, but the truth is their QB stinks and can’t find T.O. or Evans who have to just be sick with this guy trying to get them the ball.  The Bills got crushed by a team with a starting QB named Henne, who was starting for the first time.  I hate this game, but will take the Browns and the 6 points.

Ravens vs. Bengals – I’ve been riding that Bengal train all season and will not be getting off now.  I think the point spread in this game is beautiful and I take the Bengals getting 8.5 points.  The Bengals are not a fluke and have played everyone tough…especially against a divisional rival.  I think the Ravens take the win in a squeaker, but this will not be a blow out.  I think the Ravens are the better all around team giving them the win, but Cincy is no push over this year and will match up well.

Steelers vs. Lions – I had such high hopes for the Lions after they came out against the Redskins and played well in the first half against the Bears , but reality set into place and worse the sunny Detroit skies were quickly once again covered with good old Ford gas guzzling smog when Stafford got hurt.  Culpepper starting this week against a Steeler team bringing Polamalu back.  The D is completely different with that guy and Detroit will have no where to go.  This falls again into that Giant and Eagle game category with, pick the best team and look for them to cover the 10.5.

49er’s vs. Falcons – Yes the 49ers’s are for real, yes they are tough, yes they have some talent, and yes their coach is quickly becoming my hero, but with that said…I’m taking Atlanta.  The 49ers are missing Gore this week, they came off a great win at the Rams, but Atlanta has had 2 weeks to prepare for this game.  They are more talented and have great motivation to try and keep up with the Saints .  Not to mention that loss to the Patriots doesn’t seem so bad, considering the Pats look like studs again.  I am not only taking Atlanta to win, I’m taking the 2.5 points that comes with it.

Patriots vs. Broncos – Denver has one of the best defenses in football, they took it to Dallas as I predicted and Orton has looked much better than I have suggested he is.  I hate picking this game this week because everything says Denver, but I am going with the Patriots.  Denver hasn’t beaten anyone and as we have learned the Cowboys just stink so I don’t take too much from that.  What I do take away is that they were physical and beat the crap out of the Dallas receivers.  With that said Welker is back for the Patriots and Tom Brady is ….Tom Brady.  I think playing in Denver is a huge plus for the Broncos but ultimately the master beats his pupil and the Patriots limp out with a win, but I take Denver getting 3.5 points in a nail biter. 

Cardinals vs. Texans – This a tricky one as the Arizona defense has stunk it up all season and the team in general has been up and down.  One week they look like world beaters the next they look like Arizona of old.  The Texans themselves are a very up and down team.  They seem to have the offense to match up against anyone with Andre Johnson , Steve Slaton , Owen Daniels , and Matt Schaub , but their defense stinks and is capable of only stopping the Raiders.  So this becomes a battle of the better offenses and I take the Cardinals with their talented laden roster coming off a bye week and are 1-2 for the season.  Clearly they have a bigger motivation, more prep time, and for what’s it worth a slightly better offense.  I take Arizona and give the 5.5.  The points are a little high for me, but I think they will cover.

Seahawks vs. Jaguars – This is a pick’em.  I’m picking the Jags as they are much better than I have given them credit for in the beginning of the year. Jones-Drew is a stud and Sims-Walker is becoming a legit #1 receiver.  David Garrard has played very well and the Seahawks are still battling some injuries.  The Jags appear to be the healthier and better team right now.  Even with Hasselbeck coming back I take the Jags.

Colts vs. Titans – I must be missing something…the Colts have been stumping the life out of people and the Titans have been the antidote to every struggling team, so why is the line 3.5?  I have suffered time after time all season picking the Titans who I refuse to believe are that bad because of my respect for Fisher, but they stink and they might even get Vince Young to play this week.  The Colts on the other hand have Bob “the little beast” Sanders coming back.  It might be a sucker pick and Vegas always knows more than you or I, but I’m taking the Colts and giving the 3.5.

Jets vs. Dolphins – Okay, I clearly underestimated Henne last week when I took the Bills to beat them.  I thought there was no way they could beat the Bills with no QB production.  What I will say is that…I still have no faith in Henne and think that was more of an indictment on the Bills inability to stop anyone than it is the Miami offense.  Rex Ryan defense will crush these guys.  Henne in his second start is going to get it all and will look more like the rookie than Sanchez.  Not to say that Sanchez will have it all that easy this week with a tough Miami defensive squad, but he should fair better against them than Henne will against the Jets rush.  I take the Jets straight up and give the 1.5 points.

I appreciate all your thoughts and welcome your opinions.  Good luck with your picks this week.

- M





Category: NFL
Posted on: October 3, 2009 2:25 pm
Edited on: October 3, 2009 2:42 pm
 

NFL Week 4 Picks

A terrible week for me last week.  I just imploded, but I'm back this week with what seems to be a good week and as always I'll be taking some chances.  As always, full disclosure I am 30-18 straight up and 27-21 against the spread.  With that said, lets try and get back on track.  I don't want to fall far behind in my pool.  Hopefully my commentary helps you and I appreciate any and all of your thoughts.

Detroit vs. Chicago.  Detroit finally snapped their losing streak, and despite being the so called worst team in the NFL last year and this year I think it is important to note that they have kept most games close. I have Chicago winning this one, but the 10 points they are giving is way too much for a game that will be a battle of field position.  It wouldn't surprise me if Detroit actually wins as Stafford has been able to move the ball and the offense hasn't looked bad if he can avoid the picks.

Cincinnati vs. Cleveland.  Forget the Lions....the Browns are the worst team in the NFL. Only .  Carson Palmer, Cedric Benson, and Ocho Cinco have looked very impressive, not to mention the Bengals defense is very underrated.  The team looks like they actually care for the first time in a couple of years and there is clearly motivation as they took out the defending champ Steelers last week.  I take Cincy straight up and give the 5.5 points.

Oakland vs. Houston.  Oakland might be the second worst team in the NFL behind the Browns.  Russell with a completion rate of 41% is just awful.  Houston while struggling a bit has been able to move the ball on everyone besides their miserable showing week one against the Jets.  Hindsight it looks much better now as we see that the Jets are for real.  Houston is giving up 9.5 points to Oakland.  A big line, but I'll go on a limb and take it after getting burned last week by Oakland.

Seattle vs. Indianapolis.  The juggernaut Colts offense is on a roll.  Seattle has too many banged up guys on defense and despite Freeney being out, Seattle has lost some starting offensive lineman and most importantly their quarterback for this game.  Sorry but, Seneca Wallace and Julius Jones does not scare me at all.  Colts run away with this one and cover the 10.5.

Jacksonville vs. Tennessee.  I find it hard to believe that the Titans will go 0-4, quite frankly I didn't think they would go 0-3, but here they are.  Jacksonville has looked up and down this season.  Sims-Walker looks to be a young stud, MJD is awsome, but something tells me the Titans will fight tooth and nail to come away with this and the defense will play angry this week.  I take the Titans and give the 3 points.

New York Giants vs. Kansas City.  Not much to talk about here.  One great team, one horrific team.  Bowe is still reported as being out as far as I know, and Cassel has been running for his life.  I'm sure he misses New England now and has earned that paycheck with the beatings he's been taking.  The Giants defensive line is going to crush this kids soul. 

Baltimore vs. New England.  The Ravens seem to be the best all around team.  New England's defense seems to be a shell of itself with all the veterans gone.  Yes the all knowing wise prickly Bill is a so-called "genius" but you cannot keep losing top talent and expect them to be the same.  Brady will get better, the guy is a baller and has Welker and Moss...give it time, but not this week.  Flacco is coming into his own and will keep the Ravens rolling.  Getting 2 points as well...ha!  Lock it in.

Washington vs. Tampa Bay.  These two teams have looked terrible, that new kid for Tampa did some nice things in relief of the ineffective Leftwich, but Washington is feeling a little embarrased after losing to Detroit last week and is looking to recover.  Good timing for them as Tampa's defense is miserable.  I hate both of these teams, reluctantly I am giving up the 7 points and taking Washington. 

Buffalo vs.  Miami.  Miami has been good the past couple of seasons and a big part of that has been Chad Pennington.  Henne is not Chad and Buffalo will expose them as the Dolphins are now a one dimensional team.  The Bills will be able to stack the box and stuff the run.  The bills on offense can be explosive and will have every opportunity to take it to the house as the Captain of Miami's defense Joey Porter appears to be hurt.  I give the 2 points and take the Bills as they should easily win.

New York Jets vs. New Orleans.  Jets are for real and their defense is solid.  One of the best games this week as the Saints offense is ranked number 1 and will face its biggest challenge yet.  I'm going with the Saints in this one for a couple of reasons.  First, it's at New Orleans and the home turf should give the team a boost with the crowd and the turf should help the faster team.  Second, there is a little guy by the name of Drew Brees.  He will make faster reads and will not be effected by the Jets rush and he has a ton of options to get rid of the ball.  7 points seems like a big number here given how well the Jets have been playing, but I will give it up and take the Saints.

Denver vs. Dallas.  I think that Denver has flown under the radar and has one of the best rated defenses.  With that said I think the level of competition has not been great.  Orton....ugh, but Marshall is still a stud and is getting more looks.  The Denver defense will get a real test as the Cowboys are one of the best offensive units.  Marion Barber is back and if Dallas can hang 31 on the Giants, they can hang it on anyone.  I will take Dallas in the win and reluctantly take Denver with the points.

San Francisco vs. St. Louis.  Frank Gore is hurt, but Coffee is an adequate replacement.  San Francisco is for real, and playing with a ton of confidence.  They should have one last week and let it slip away.  The  team has taken Singletary's attitude and will play tough on every down.  St. Louis is terrible and has lost Laurent for the season and Avery is hurting.  Bulger is out as well, and Steven Jackson can't do it all.  San Francisco dominates this one easily and covers the 9.5.

San Diego vs. Pittsburgh.  Everyone is jumping on the Steelers this week and think they will win in a laugher.  Why?  The defense is not the same since they lost Polamalu.  San Diego hasn't looked great either, but is capable of moving the ball and will be better with Tomlinson back.  Philip Rivers, Gates, and Vincent will put up some points.  The Charger defense has looked terrible and I think this will be a shoot out with both defensive units reeling. San Diego is getting 6.5 and I think will cover.  I take Pitt to win the game in Big Ben's usual 4th quarter comebacks.

Green Bay vs. Minnesota.  Big Brett comes back and has played really well this season limiting his turnovers and hasn't tried to do too much.  Quite frankly, he hasn't needed to until last week in that miraculous comeback throw.  There is huge motivation on both sides here.  Favre wants this one bad, but I think the Packers will play the spoiler, because Rogers is tired of living in the shadow as well and the Packers are tired of all the Favre talk from this and last season.  They have been chomping at the bit to give him a whooping and the Vikings as a team don't have that level of motivation.  I will take the 3.5 and Green Bay for the upset.

Category: NFL
Tags: Week 4 Picks
 
Posted on: September 27, 2009 12:40 pm
 

Week 3 Picks....

Full disclosure - I am 21-11  straight up so far for the season and 18-14 against the spread, so take that for what it worth.  Just like to post and evoke some discussion and happy to hear your thoughts.  Here are the games:

Titans @ Jets - Jets defense has been awsome this season and the offense has managed to be mistake free, thus copying the Ravens formula for success last year.  This one I think who goes to the Titans who are just desparte for a win and still have more talent than the Jets.  I pick the Titans straight up for the win and take the 2.5 in points as well.

Giants @ Buccaneers - Even with the Jints hurting a bit on the D-line and Kenny Phillips out for the year.  I take the Giants who still have a stout D line with a statue QB in Leftwich to tee off on.  They don't have a recorded TD this year either.  Reluctantly I'm giving the 6.5 to TB.  Kind of a big # for me.

Packers @ Rams - Rams = awful.  Steven Jackson is unbelievable, but one man is not a team.  Green Bay is obviously a better team and I take them straight up and give the 6.5.  I think Jennings who was blanked out last week or Driver who had a huge day is going to blow the secondary up as the Rams have one quality secondary guy in Atogwe.

Chiefs @ Eagles - Eagles will crush the Chiefs with or without McNabb.  Cassel will be without Bowe, and is still getting used to people in his face and throwing to WR who are not named Randy Moss and Wes Welker.  Eagles are all about the blitz and will dominate this game.  I take the Eagles straight up and give the 7.5.

Falcons @ Patriots - yes the Falcons are great, yes they are loaded with guys on the offensive side like Gonzalez, Roddy White, and Michael Turner, but...yes I said but, they have yet to see a motivated Patriot team that has been thrown to the side by critics and bandwagon followers.  They still have to face a veteran defense, Belichick, and a potent offense.  Brady, Moss, and Welker will come alive and crush their critics this week.  They are not facing a Rex Ryan Defense and I'm sure they are tired of hearing how bad they are.  I give the 4 points to the falcons and take the Patriots.

49ers @ Vikings - San Francisco has looked very solid this season but they have not seen a defense like the Vikings.  Not to mention playing at the Vikings is a tough task for any team let alone a young one.  Also, there is a guy named Peterson that will break one or two free by the end of the day.  Look for the Vikings to get the win, but I will take the 7 points and take the 49's on the spread.

Jaguars @ Texans - Houston at home will step up the Defense against a pathetic Jag offense and the Houston offense came alive last week.  The return of Walter will only add to the weapons of Owen Daniels and probably the best WR in football.... a little guy by the name of Johnson.  The passing game will help Slaton get on track.  Houston wins big and covers the 4.

Redskins @ Lions - Redskins are awful, Lions have had some heartbreaks.  Who really wants to watch this game let alone write about it.  I will take the Lions to break their winless record and I will take the 6.5 points that come with it.

Browns @ Ravens - Ravens all the way.  Has Cleveland announced their QB yet? lol. Does it matter?  The Ravens will crush Quinn this week and Falco will continue his flawless play.  The Ravens may be one of the best 3 teams in the NFL right now and have little weaknesses.  I'm giving the 13.5.  Crazy number, but I think they will cover.

Bears @ Seahawks - Hasselbeck's ribs are hurting, Julius Jones has looked like...well, Julius Jones.  While I have been drinking the Seattle kool-aide I'm taking the Bears who appear to be getting better and confident with Cutler.  I also give the 2 points.

Saints @ Bills - Surprise, surprise...I'm taking the Bills and the 6 points.  Yes the Saints have the best offense in the NFL, but clearly not the best defense.  Buffalo is a terrible place to play and the Bills have looked very good.  Their offense will exploit the week pass coverage of N.O. and the Saints will be one dimensional on offense without a running game due to injuries, making them easier to deal with.  I think this is an upset in the making and I'm calling it.

Dolphins @ Chargers - The Chargers have looked very pedestrian for a team that some thought would be going to the Superbowl.  After watching everyone run all over San Diego, I don't think that will stop this week and the disappointment of Miami crushing the Colts yet still losing has left them a little angry.  I'm taking Miami because they will control the ball and the clock. To me its a pick'em but I will take the 6 points.

Broncos @ Raiders - JaMarcus Russell is awful.  Period.  A completion rate around 30 percent.  Despite this Oakland has a very nice offensive line and will run all over a  Broncos defense that has been playing well, but hasn't seen any real quality teams.   Raiders will make win with a solid defense themselves with outstanding coverage forcing the also terrible Orton to make mistakes. I give the 1.5 points to Denver and take the Raiders for the win.

Steelers @ Bengals - The Bengals offense is coming around and the loss of Polamalu for the Steelers is huge.  Chris Henry is a stud who will continue to blossom.  I'm calling the upset here as the Bengals just want it more and will take out the better team who is injury plagued and reeling right now.  Getting 4 points too helps.

Colts @ Cardinals - Colts are lucky to get than win last week as they were man handled by Miami.  working with less rest and the defense still tired from staying on the field for 45 minutes does not bode well for them considering they are facing one of the most potent offenses in the NFL.  Now those tired backs have to cover the best WR corps and a running game back in full swing.  Cardinals full of confidence again will beat the Colts easier than people think.  I also give the 2 points.

Panthers @ Cowboys - Cowboys will handle the Panthers easy on this one.  I don't like the way the Panthers have looked. Even though Steve Smith could have a great day  I think the Cowboys are still mad at losing their home opener and are looking to exact some revenge.  I'm giving the 9 as well as Williams and Smith are not enough to keep them in it.
Category: NFL
 
 
 
 
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