Tag:Handicapping
Posted on: July 7, 2010 9:37 pm
 

Here we go....

I'm starting early this year, with a new program and formula that incorporates player's fantasy rankings.  That has always been a dream of mine, and this is the year that I will actually be declared to have no life whatsoever. 

Nevertheless, every Thursday at the crack of dawn (I know that sounds perverse) I will blow out the candles, crawl out of my cave and nail the results to the door of the local town hall.  And by Friday morning I'll sober up and call my attorney... again.

Any way you look at it... it's going to be a hell of a year!



Posted on: October 31, 2009 10:02 am
 

week 8

season is cruising by....  let's see what the magic 8 ball says: 



ARI    4    2    21.6
CAR    2    4    14.4
           
ATL    4    2    20.4
NO    6    0    33.6
           
BAL    3    3    22.6
DEN    6    0    20.4
           
BUF    3    4    16.6
HOU    4    3    21.4
           
CHI    3    3    21.6
CLE    1    6    11.4
           
DAL    4    2    23.6
SEA    2    4    17.4
           
DET    1    5    18.6
STL    0    7    12.4
           
GB    4    2    23.6
MIN    6    1    23.4
           
IND    6    0    26.6
SF    3    3    18.4
           
JAC    3    3    20.4
TEN    0    6    14.6
           
MIA    2    4    20.4
NYJ    4    3    21.6
           
NYG    5    2    23.4
PHI    4    2    24.6
           
SD    3    3    24.6
OAK    2    5    10.4



It's picking a bunch of close one's here... should be a fun week.  Denver's first loss???  Packers over Vikings???


Category: NFL
Tags: Handicapping
 
Posted on: October 24, 2009 6:30 am
 

week 7

8 picks right last week... not too good, was kind of crazy though...

ok, let's spin the magic wheel again:

TEAM    W    L    SCORE
           
ARI    3    2    19.4
NYG    5    1    24.6

ATL    4    1    21.4
DAL    3    2    20.6

BUF    2    4    17.4
CAR    2    3    18.6

CHI    3    2    21.4
CIN    4    2    19.6

CLE    1    5    14.6
GB    3    2    25.4

HOU    3    3    21.6
SF    3    2    20.4

IND    5    0    25.4
STL    0    6    10.6

KC    1    5    20.6
SD    2    3    23.4

MIA    2    3    19.6
NO    5    0    28.4

MIN    6    0    22.4
PIT    4    2    19.6

NE    4    2    26.4
TB    0    6    14.6

NYJ    3    3    19.4
OAK    2    4    13.6

PHI    3    2    22.4
WAS    2    4    14.6


Wow... looks good from here... I'm playing them!



Category: NFL
Tags: Handicapping
 
Posted on: October 17, 2009 10:55 pm
 

week 6... the machine lumbers on... regardless

the new program isn't fully ready, however, parts of it are moving in.... let's see what we get this week:

TEAM    W    L    POWER_RANK   SCORE

ARI    2    2    47    18.4
SEA    2    3    73    22.6

ATL    3    1    106    21.6
CHI    3    1    81    19.4

BAL    3    2    71    20.4
MIN    5    0    113    26.6

BUF    1    4    65    15.4
NYJ    3    2    72    20.6

CAR    1    3    15    18.4
TB    0    5    31    19.6

CLE    1    4    66    13.4
PIT    3    2    16    23.6

DET    1    4    97    20.4
GB    2    2    71    25.6

HOU    2    3    71    19.4
CIN    4    1    108    20.6

KC    0    5    61    14.4
WAS    2    3    103    19.6

NO    4    0    111    28.6
NYG    5    0    82    21.4

OAK    1    4    63    14.6
PHI    3    1    112    27.4

SD    2    2    13    17.6
DEN    5    0    117    21.4

STL    0    5    1    11.4
JAC    2    3    72    21.6

TEN    0    5    61    17.4
NE    3    2    47    22.6

This doesn't look bad at first glance... wierd that it gave Detroit such a high power ranking but still GB the win by 5.  I could see playing these this week... so if you do, good luck... and remember, I just want you to know that we're all counting on you...




Category: NFL
Posted on: October 11, 2009 6:55 am
 

Week 5 Power Ranking Numbers

It looks like the the week 5 power ranking numbers (second column) are capping around the 70's for some reason.  I'm guessing that the formula is missing one win (it should be giving 20 pts per win), so teams with 4 wins are coming out about as strong as some teams with three wins.  Not sure... oh well, too late to turn back now....
Category: NFL
Tags: handicapping
 
Posted on: October 11, 2009 6:39 am
Edited on: October 11, 2009 6:41 am
 

Week 5: Was 'New Math' A Mistake?

ARI    7    18.6
HOU    71    24.4

ATL    71    14.4
SF    74    16.6

BAL    41    23.6
CIN    43    18.4

BUF    35    22.6
CLE    31    16.4

BYE       

CAR    35    14.6
WAS    43    19.4

CHI    46   


DAL    8    25.4
KC    1    18.6

DEN    77    18.6
NE    47    15.4

DET    37    22.6
PIT    11    22.4

GB    36   

IND    46    26.4
TEN    1    18.6

JAC    72    23.4
SEA    3    17.6

MIA    39    18.6
NYJ    42    18.4

MIN    78    26.4
STL    1    11.6

NO    76   

NYG    72    22.6
OAK    33    10.4

PHI    72    29.6
TB    31    15.4

SD    8   


This doesn't look bad at first glance.  And an interesting toss-up call for Detroit and Pitt...






Category: NFL
Tags: Handicapping
 
Posted on: October 11, 2009 6:28 am
 

Week 4 Recap

Looks like the program was 10 and 4 picking winners ... so not too bad, except my dartboard picked 11... was probably just a lucky week for the dartboard.

Most of the week went to programming web scrapers for collecting scores and spreads, and a small sqlite database to pile it all into.  However, none of the new toys are ready ... so lets run the old version and see what we get...

Category: NFL
Tags: Handicapping
 
Posted on: October 2, 2009 8:58 am
 

Week 4 Funny Numbers


Well, I just plugged in the numbers and ran it...  even though there was a small voice in my head saying 'not the third switch'...

At first glance nothing seemed horribly wrong... here are the results:


TEAM     W    L    STRENGTH            NEXT_SCORE
                       
BAL    3    0    101            4
NE    2    1    39            17
                       
BUF    1    2    65            31
MIA    0    3    1            13
                       
CHI    2    1    68            18
DET    1    2    37            19
                       
CIN     2    1    69            29
CLE     0    3    1            10
                       
DAL     2    1    68            -14
DEN    3    0    99            15
                       
GB    2    1    66            23
MIN    3    0    70            22
                       
HOU    1    2    33            22
OAK    1    2    63            13
                       
IND    3    0    68            23
SEA    1    2    33            18
                       
JAC    1    2    64            22
TEN     0    3    31            15
                       
KC    0    3    1            17
NYG    3    0    68            38
                       
NO    3    0    98            29
NYJ    3    0    102            3
                       
PIT    1    2    3            17
SD    2    1    38            35
                       
SF    2    1    96            25
STL     0    3    31            4
                       
TB    0    3    1            16
WAS    1    2    35            19


Aside from the little issue of how a team can only score two safties for a total of 4 points, no major problems...  There is the other little issue of the program predicting that Dallas will score -14 against Denver.... for the sake of Dallas fans everywhere, I sure hope that's a bug.  But then I saw the big problem... the program is predicting that Green Bay will beat Minnesota 23 to 22... Time to go tweak the formula, because that makes no sense at all!!!  GO VIKES!!!!!








 
 
 
 
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