Tag:cowboys
Posted on: December 25, 2011 4:47 pm
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WEEK 17 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Well...we finally made it through another tiebreaker season.  It's been interesting, especially in the AFC West and with all the potential ties at 9-7 in both the AFC and NFC.  I'm putting out Week 17 scenarios a little early since all AFC games are done for week 16 and the NFC is pretty cut and dry now.

Also...you should know that the scenarios below were simplified as two potential scenarios that would come down to Strength of Victory (SOV) tiebreaker are already locked up.  If BAL wins and NE loses, the battle for the #1 seed comes down to SOV as they would be tied in conf record and common opponents.  BAL has already secured the better record among teams they have defeated (SOV) over NE, otherwise we might have had some games with playoff impact that are not directly related to BAL-NE.  The other scenario where SOV may come into play is a 4-team tie at 9-7 between CIN-NYJ-TEN-OAK (needs CIN loss, NYJ win, TEN win, OAK win and DEN win).  CIN would drop out on conf record and NYJ-TEN-OAK don't have enough common opponents so it goes to SOV.  OAK has already secured better Win-Loss-Tied percentage among defeated opponents (assuming scenario above) over TEN and NYJ.

Also....TEN is probably the most interesting scenario to figure out.   If you look at TEN scenarios below, basically they need another team to match up with them and CIN at 9-7 to avoid losing H2H to CIN.  If Jets win...they win that 3-way with NYJ-CIN-TEN on common opponents over NYJ after CIN drops out on conf record.  BUT...they can't have OAK as Wild Card potential at 9-7 as well because in that case CIN drops out and not enough common opponents for NYJ-TEN-OAK and OAK wins that tiebreaker on Strength of Victory.    BUT....if OAK is there as potential WC at 9-7 (both DEN and OAK win), TEN can advance if NYJ loses as then it would be TEN-CIN-OAK and CIN would drop out on conf record and TEN beats OAK on common opponents.  So TEN gets in if they Win and CIN loses and either NYJ wins or OAK wins (and doesn't win division)...BUT NOT BOTH.  Weird.

So, we're left with below:

WEEK 17 PLAYOFF PICTURE (also includes remaining 2 Week 16 games):

NFC

  CLINCHED:    Green Bay Packers -- North Division and first-round bye.
San Francisco 49ers -- West Division.
New Orleans Saints -- wild card spot.
Detroit Lions -- wild card spot.
  ELIMINATED:  Arizona, Carolina, Minnesota, Philadelphia, St. Louis, Seattle, Tampa Bay, Washington.

 GREEN BAY PACKERS
  Green Bay clinches homefield advantage throughout NFC playoffs:
   1) one GB win or tie
   2) SF loss or tie

 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
  San Francisco clinches a first-round bye:
   1) SF win
   2) SF tie + one NO loss or tie
   3) one NO loss
  San Francisco clinches homefield advantage throughout NFC playoffs:  
   1) SF win + two GB losses

 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
  New Orleans clinches NFC South Division:
   1) one NO win or tie
   2) one ATL loss or tie
  New Orleans clinches a first-round bye:
   1) two NO wins + SF loss or tie
   2) one NO win + one NO tie + SF loss

 NEW YORK Giants
  NY Giants clinch NFC East Division:
   1) NYG win or tie

 DALLAS Cowboys
  Dallas clinches NFC East Division:
   1) DAL win

 ATLANTA Falcons
  Atlanta clinches NFC South Division:
   1) two ATL wins + two NO losses
  Atlanta clinches a wild card spot:
   1) one ATL win or tie
   2) one CHI loss or tie

 CHICAGO Bears
  Chicago clinches a wild card spot:
   1) two CHI wins + two ATL losses

 AFC

  CLINCHED:    New England Patriots -- East Division and a first-round bye.
Houston Texans -- South Division.
Baltimore Ravens -- wild card spot.
Pittsburgh Steelers -- wild card spot.
  ELIMINATED:  Buffalo, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Miami, Jacksonville, San Diego

 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
  New England clinches homefield advantage throughout AFC playoffs:
   1) NE win or tie
   2) BAL loss or tie + PIT loss or tie

 BALTIMORE RAVENS
  Baltimore clinches AFC North Division and a first-round bye:
   1) BAL win
   2) BAL tie + PIT loss or tie
   3) PIT loss
  Baltimore clinches homefield advantage throughout AFC playoffs:
   1) BAL win + NE loss

 PITTSBURGH STEELERS
  Pittsburgh clinches AFC North Division and a first-round bye:
   1) PIT win + BAL loss or tie
   2) PIT tie + BAL loss
  Pittsburgh clinches homefield advantage throughout AFC playoffs:
   1) PIT win + BAL loss or tie + NE loss

 DENVER Broncos
  Denver clinches AFC West Division:
   1) DEN win
   2) DEN tie + OAK loss or tie
   3) OAK loss

 OAKLAND Raiders
  Oakland clinches AFC West Division:
   1) OAK win + DEN loss or tie
   2) OAK tie + DEN loss
  Oakland clinches a wild card spot:
   1) OAK win + CIN loss + TEN loss or tie
   2) OAK win + CIN loss + NYJ win
 
 CINCINNATI Bengals
  Cincinnati clinches a wild card spot:
   1) CIN win or tie
   2) NYJ loss or tie + OAK loss or tie
   3) NYJ loss or tie + DEN loss or tie
 
 NEW YORK JETS
  NY Jets clinch a wild card spot:
   1) NYJ win + CIN loss + TEN loss or tie + OAK loss or tie
   2) NYJ win + CIN loss + TEN loss or tie + DEN loss or tie

 TENNESSEE Titans
  Tennessee clinches a wild card spot:
   1) TEN win + CIN loss + NYJ win + OAK loss or tie
   2) TEN win + CIN loss + NYJ win + DEN loss or tie
   3) TEN win + CIN loss + NYJ loss or tie + OAK win + DEN win

Posted on: December 21, 2011 2:52 am
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Week 15...Seriously?   Week 15 in 2011 was one of the most upside down weeks in memory.  Not only did we have an undefeated team lose and a winless team win, we had many teams that needed to win to secure either playoff spots or better playoff position drop the ball. 

In the AFC, 7 of the top 9 teams (after wk 15) lose as division leaders BAL, HOU and DEN all lose and we also see PIT, NYJ, TEN and OAK lose as well.  NE now controls destiny for #1 seed and the possibility of 4 8-8 teams in the AFC West gets closer to reality (in which case KC would win the division).

In the NFC, GB, SF, CHI and the Jekyll and Hyde Giants all lost...while DET (with a huge come-from-behind win), NO, ATL and DAL all kept pace and SEA is still in the hunt (their potential 8-4 conf record along with win over CHI helps).

Full playoff clinching scenarios are below.  Week 16 has a HUGE amount of KEY GAMES (Week 17 is fairly weak at this point) including a big game on MNF between NO and ATL as ATL hangs on to slim hopes for division crown, CHI @ GB, PHI @ DAL, NYG @ NYJ, SD @ DET, OAK @ KC, SF @ SEA...as well as MIA @ NE, CLE @ BAL and DEN @ BUF.   Should be a fun week.  Stay tuned....

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF PICTURE:

 NFC

  CLINCHED:    Green Bay Packers -- North Division and first-round bye.
               San Francisco 49ers -- West Division.
               New Orleans Saints -- wild card spot.
  ELIMINATED:  Carolina, Minnesota, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Washington.

 GREEN BAY PACKERS
  Green Bay clinches home-field advantage throughout NFC playoffs:
   1) GB win or tie
   2) SF loss or tie

 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
  San Francisco clinches a first-round bye:
   1) SF win + NO loss

 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
  New Orleans clinches NFC South Division:
   1) NO win or tie

 DALLAS Cowboys
  Dallas clinches NFC East Division:
   1) DAL win + NYG loss or tie
   2) DAL tie + NYG loss

 ATLANTA Falcons
  Atlanta clinches a wild card spot:
   1) ATL win or tie
   2) DAL loss or tie + CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie
   3) NYG loss or tie + CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie

 DETROIT Lions
  Detroit clinches a wild card spot:
   1) DET win or tie
   2) CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie + SEA loss or tie + DAL loss or tie
   3) CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie + SEA loss or tie + NYG loss or tie
   4) CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie + SEA loss or tie + ATL win or tie

 AFC

  CLINCHED:    Houston Texans -- South Division.
               New England Patriots -- East Division.
               Baltimore Ravens -- wild card spot.
               Pittsburgh Steelers -- wild card spot.
  ELIMINATED:  Buffalo, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Miami, Jacksonville.

 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
  New England clinches a first-round bye:
   1) NE win + HOU loss or tie
   2) NE win + PIT loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
   3) NE tie + HOU loss
   4) NE tie + PIT loss + BAL loss
  New England clinches home-field advantage throughout AFC playoffs:
   1) NE win + HOU loss or tie + PIT loss or tie + BAL loss or tie

 BALTIMORE RAVENS
  Baltimore clinches AFC North Division:
   1) BAL win + PIT loss
  Baltimore clinches a first-round bye:
   1) BAL win + PIT loss + HOU loss

 DENVER Broncos
  Denver clinches AFC West Division:
   1) DEN win + OAK loss or tie
   2) DEN tie + OAK loss + SD loss or tie
  Denver clinches a wild card spot:
   1) DEN win + NYJ loss + CIN loss + TEN loss or tie

Posted on: December 21, 2009 1:51 am
 

EARLY WEEK 16 SCENARIOS

Here's prelim look at Week 16 (i'll break this into AFC and NFC for Tuesday if that's the way people want it):

NFC
(Key Games: NYG at WAS Monday night, CAR @ NYG, MIN @ CHI, DAL @ WAS, SEA @ GB, TB @ NO, DEN @ PHI)

  NEW ORLEANS Saints
  New Orleans clinches homefield advantage throughout NFC playoffs:
   1) NO win or tie
   2) MIN loss or tie
  MINNESOTA Vikings
  Minnesota clinches a first-round bye:
   1) MIN win + PHI loss or tie
   2) MIN tie + PHI loss
  PHILADELPHIA Eagles
  Philadelphia clinches East division:
   1) PHI win + DAL loss or tie
   2) PHI tie + DAL loss
  GREEN BAY Packers
  Green Bay clinches a playoff spot:
  IF NY Giants BEAT WASHINGTON
   1) GB win + NYG loss or tie
   2) GB win + DAL loss
   3) GB tie + NYG loss
  IF WASHINGTON BEATS NY GIANTS
   1) GB win or tie
   2) NYG loss or tie
  DALLAS Cowboys
  Dallas clinches a playoff spot:
  IF NY GIANTS BEAT WASHINGTON
   1) DAL win + NYG loss or tie
   2) DAL tie + NYG loss
  IF WASHINGTON BEATS NY GIANTS
   1) DAL win or tie
   2) NYG loss or tie
 
 AFC
(Key Games: BAL @ PIT, KC @ CIN, DEN @ PHI, HOU @ MIA, NYJ @ IND, JAC @ NE, SD @ TEN)  

  SAN DIEGO Chargers
  San Diego clinches a first-round bye:
   1) SD win or tie
   2) NE loss or tie
  NEW ENGLAND Patriots
  New England clinches East division:
   1) NE win or tie
   2) MIA loss or tie
  CINCINNATI Bengals
  Cincinnati clinches North division:
   1) CIN win
   2) CIN tie + BAL loss or tie
   3) BAL loss
  Cincinnati clinches a playoff spot:
   1) CIN tie
   2) JAC loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie + HOU/MIA game ends in a tie
  BALTIMORE Ravens
  Baltimore clinches a playoff spot:
   1) BAL win + JAC loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie
   2) BAL win + JAC loss or tie + DEN loss
   2) BAL win + MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie + DEN loss
   3) BAL tie + NYJ loss + JAC loss + TEN loss or tie + HOU/MIA game ends in tie
  DENVER Broncos
  Denver clinches a playoff spot:
   1) DEN win + JAC loss or tie + MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie +
       PIT loss or tie

[Note:  I think DEN scenario works with HOU beating MIA because DEN would clinch SOV over HOU in this scenario.  In initial review, I have DEN +12 wins in unduplicated victories and HOU only has ability to gain 9 wins over last two weeks.] 
Posted on: November 27, 2009 4:17 am
 

Thanksgiving Tiebreaker Tidbits

Here's what we know based on Thanksgiving Day games:

- DET (2-9 overall, 1-8 NFC) is eliminated from playoff contention with a PHIL WIN OR TIE against WASH.  They could have been eliminated with a NYG win but that didn't happen.  Detroit now can't catch GB (due to H2H sweep) and would lose H2H to GB as well in 3-way tie with CHI at 7-9.  PHIL has conference record advantage over DET and win would guarantee they get to 7-9 at worst.  DET can't use any other team to jump over PHIL except for WASH who DET beat H2H.  However, if PHIL beats WASH, the Skins can't catch them in the division.  And even if PHIL ties WASH, that would give PHIL a H2H advantage over WASH (1-0-1 vs. 0-1-1).  Furthermore, a PHIL tie would require them to lose every remaining game, thus giving the Giants their 7th win and their 5th conference win which would best DET.  If PHIL ties NYG, that gives PHIL the divisional advantage and gets them to 6-8-2 which is the same as 7-9 and they would beat DET in the same tiebreakers fashion as if they had won this week.

- GB (7-4 overall, 6-3 NFC) now holds the #5 seed with their win but will drop back to #6 if PHIL beats WASH due to conference record (6-3 for GB vs. PHIL's 6-2).  NYG's loss to DEN aided the Packers immensely in the Wild Card race on overall record, but both teams have 3 conference losses.

- GB does control it's own destiny for the #5 seed however, since PHIL plays DALL and if GB wins out and PHIL wins out to tie them, that would give PHIL the NFC East title and GB has tiebreak over DALL due to H2H win.

- It should be noted that NYG would likely have common opponents record advantage over GB if they tie on overall record and conference record (all of NYG's remaining games are NFC games and GB could lose to either BAL or PIT).  If both teams tied at 11-5 and 9-3 in conf, the Giants would have common opponents advantage at 4-1 vs. 2-3.  I say "likely" as it depends on which games each team wins, but very likely the Giants would end up on top in this scenario.

- GB is the only team in the League in 2nd place where there is a two-game separation between them and both the team ahead of them and the team behind them.  Trivial...and fairly meaningless...but points out the hold they have on 2nd place in the NFC North.

- GB still has a long way to go to win the NFC North since they were swept by MINN, meaning the Pack needs to beat the Vikings outright to win the crown.

- DALL (8-3 overall, 6-2 NFC) gained a 1.5 game lead over PHIL and a 2 game lead over NYG with their victory and NYG's loss.  The only downside to the DALL win was it was a non-conference win and they remain at 6-2 in the conference.  

- DALL controls its own destiny for the NFC East title and a #4 seed.  They would need an ARIZ loss or tie this week to control the #3 seed.  PHIL also controls its own destiny for the #4 seed with game against the Cowboys still looming and they would have division record advantage if they can win that game.

- OAK (3-8 overall, 2-6 AFC) is not eliminated this week, despite the loss to DALL.  They would be eliminated from a potential division crown if SD beats KC this week.

- DEN (7-4 overall, 5-3 AFC) bounced back nicely from recent woes with the NYG win.  The Broncos are now 1/2 game behind SD and the Chargers have their final divisional game this week hosting KC.  DEN has yet to play KC yet so the Chiefs will has something to say about the AFC West title.

- If SD loses to KC this week, DEN will control its own destiny for the AFC West crown due to divisional record advantage.

- DEN's biggest issue in tiebreakers is that they have H2H losses against two Wild Card foes PITT and BALT and have a worse conference record than JAX.

- NYG (6-5 overall, 4-3 NFC) really put themselves behind the 8-ball with their loss this week with the only redeeming factor being it was a non-conference loss.  The Giants are now 2 games behind the Cowboys but can still gain a sweep against them by winning at home next week.

- This loss allows ATL to catch the Giants this week in the Wild Card race, but the Giants still have H2H win over ATL.  However, ATL plays PHIL in 2 weeks and could use the Eagles to jump over the Giants if they're all tied at the end.

Should be a fun weekend of games.  I'll be at the KC at SD game so I'll tweet from there with any relevant updates at www.twitter.com/NFL_Tiebreakers and obviously be back here for more blogs and banter.

Enjoy the leftovers.

Joe
 
 
 
 
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