Tag:Playoffs
Posted on: December 12, 2010 10:59 am
 

Week 14 Clinching/Elimination Scenarios (Updated)

After INDY's win over TENN on Thursday night, here are the updated AFC Clinching Scenarios below.  I've also added Week 14 Elimination Scenarios so you can folllow along with the games this week and see who's still alive for playoff contention.

[Note:  With the NYG @ MIN game being postponed to Monday night at the earliest, some of the results below will play out later than expected]

WEEK 14 PLAYOFF PICTURE:

NFC

CLINCHED:    None
ELIMINATED:  Carolina, Detroit.
 
ATLANTA Falcons
  Atlanta clinches a playoff spot:
   1) ATL win + NYG loss + PHI loss
   2) ATL win + NYG loss + GB loss
   3) ATL win + PHI loss + GB loss
   4) ATL tie + NYG loss + PHI loss + GB loss + TB loss or tie
There are other scenarios in which Atlanta can clinch a playoff spot if any of
the games involving NYG, PHI or GB ends in a tie.

AFC

CLINCHED:    None
ELIMINATED:  Buffalo, Cincinnati, Denver.

NEW ENGLAND Patriots
New England clinches a playof spot:
   1) NE win or tie
   2) MIA loss or tie + JAC loss or tie
There are other scenarios in which New England may clinch a playoff spot if
they clinch the strength of victory tiebreaker over certain teams this weekend.
     
NEW YORK Jets
NY Jets clinch a playoff spot:
   1) NYJ win + SD loss or tie + JAC loss or tie 

PITTSBURGH Steelers
Pittsburgh clinches a playoff spot:
   1) PIT win + JAC loss or tie + NE win or tie + MIA loss or tie
There are other scenarios in which Pittsburgh may clinch a playoff spot if
they clinch the strength of victory tiebreaker over certain teams this weekend.


WEEK 14 ELIMINATION SCENARIOS

AFC
MIAMI Dolphins
Miami is eliminated from playoff contention:
1) MIA loss + BAL win
 
CLEVELAND Browns
Cleveland is eliminated from playoff contention:
1) CLE loss + BAL win or tie
2) CLE tie + BAL win
 
NFC
DALLAS Cowboys
Dallas is eliminated from playoff contention:
1) DAL loss or tie
2) GB win or tie
 
WASHINGTON Redskins
Washington is eliminated from playoff contention:
1) WAS loss + GB win or tie
2) WAS loss + PHI win or tie
3) WAS tie + GB win
4) WAS tie + PHI win
 
MINNESOTA Vikings
Minnesota is eliminated from playoff contention:
1) MIN loss
2) MIN tie + GB win or tie
3) MIN tie + PHI win
4) GB win + NO win or tie
 
ARIZONA Cardinals
Arizona is eliminated from playoff contention:
1) ARI loss or tie
2) SEA win or tie
3) STL win or tie
 
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers
San Francisco is eliminated from playoff contention:
1) SF loss

Posted on: December 8, 2010 10:21 am
 

Week 14 Clinching Scenarios

Here is where we ended up with Week 14 Scenarios.   Honestly, the PITT scenarios were a bit challenging with multiple games being played this week that involve teams in the PITT mix (NYJ-MIA, OAK-JAC, SD-KC).

I will walk through my explanation of the PITT scenarios in the comments below.

Also, the notes added below NE and PITT scenarios are there as these teams may lock up strength of victory advantage over JAC (and potentially SD) this weekend.  That would kill the need for IND or JAC loss/tie in scenarios for those teams.

WEEK 14 PLAYOFF PICTURE:

 NFC

  CLINCHED:    None
  ELIMINATED:  Carolina, Detroit.
 
 ATLANTA Falcons
  Atlanta clinches a playoff spot:
   1) ATL win + NYG loss + PHI loss
   2) ATL win + NYG loss + GB loss
   3) ATL win + PHI loss + GB loss
   4) ATL tie + NYG loss + PHI loss + GB loss + TB loss or tie
  There are other scenarios in which Atlanta can clinch a playoff spot if any of
 the games involving NYG, PHI or GB ends in a tie.

 AFC

  CLINCHED:    None
  ELIMINATED:  Buffalo, Cincinnati, Denver.

 NEW ENGLAND Patriots
  New England clinches a playof spot:
   1) NE win or tie
   2) MIA loss or tie + JAC loss or tie
   3) MIA loss or tie + IND loss or tie
  There are other scenarios in which New England may clinch a playoff spot if
 they clinch the strength of victory tiebreaker over certain teams this weekend.
     
 NEW YORK Jets
  NY Jets clinch a playoff spot:
   1) NYJ win + SD loss or tie + JAC loss or tie
   2) NYJ win + SD loss or tie + IND loss or tie 
   3) NYJ tie + OAK loss or tie + SD loss + IND loss

 PITTSBURGH Steelers
  Pittsburgh clinches a playoff spot:
   1) PIT win + JAC loss or tie + NE win or tie + MIA loss or tie
   2) PIT win + IND loss or tie + NE win or tie + MIA loss or tie
   3) PIT win + IND loss or tie + NE win or tie + OAK loss or tie + SD loss or tie
   4) PIT win + IND loss or tie + MIA loss or tie + OAK loss or tie
   5) PIT tie + MIA loss or tie + OAK loss or tie + SD loss or tie + IND loss
  There are other scenarios in which Pittsburgh may clinch a playoff spot if
 they clinch the strength of victory tiebreaker over certain teams this weekend.

Posted on: December 1, 2010 2:29 pm
 

Week 13 Elimination Scenarios

Since we don't have any clinching scenarios for week 13 (first time this has occurred in the League since the 2000 season), I will detail the ELIMINATION SCENARIOS that could come into play this week.

CLEV can be eliminated this week with a loss at MIA and a BAL-PIT tie game.  The BAL-PIT tie advances both BAL and PIT ahead of the best CLEV can get to in this scenario (8-8) and would create 6 teams better CLEV (4 division winners plus 2 wild cards better than 8-8).

CLEV out with:
- LOSS + BAL-PIT tie
DEN is eliminated with a loss at KC.  Pretty simple...DEN would be 7-9 at best and KC would be 8-8 at worst so DEN couldn't win the division and there are already two wild card teams better than 7-9.

DEN out with:
- LOSS

I have DAL eliminated with a LOSS AND EITHER a PHIL win/tie OR a GB win/tie OR a TB win/tie.  A loss combined with a win or tie by any of those three teams and DAL is done.  If DAL loses, that gets them to 7-9 at best.   That record would eliminate them from winning the NFC East as NYG and PHIL play each other week 15 and one of them would be better than 7-9.  Also, and this is important to note, NYG plays GB week 16 so one of those teams is guaranteed to be better than 7-9 as well.  A NYG Win on it's own doesn't eliminate DAL with a loss as NYG could beat PHIL week 15 and GB week 16 and PHIL, GB and TB could lose out and DAL could win that tiebreaker at 7-9.  In that tiebreaker, DAL can still get to 6-6 in conf record even with a loss this week, and they can still sweep PHIL and, even though they lost H2H to GB, would beat GB and TB in 3-way wild card tiebreaker on conf record (6-6 to 5-7 for the other two teams).  HOWEVER, a PHIL win/tie by itself would eliminate DAL with a loss as that would get PHIL better than 7-9 AND when you factor in NYG and GB playing week 16, would get two wild card teams better than DAL at 7-9.  If neither NYG or PHIL win/tie this week, a GB or TB win/tie would eliminate DAL with a loss as that would put two wild card teams better than DAL at 7-9 and remember that NYG and PHIL still play each other week 15 which would keep DAL from winning the division.

DAL out with:
- LOSS + PHIL win/tie
- LOSS + GB win/tie
- LOSS + TB win/tie

MINN can also be eliminated this week.  I have MINN out with a LOSS AND CHI win/tie AND GB win AND EITHER a NO win/tie or TB win/tie.  A MINN loss would get them to 4-8 and 8-8 at best (they do have a chance to still get to 8-4 in conference).  If GB wins, that gets them to 8-8 at worst and GB has swept MINN.  Even though CHI-GB play each other week 17, we would still need a CHI win or tie to eliminate MINN this week as MINN could beat CHI on common opponents.  The CHI win/tie and GB win would relegate MINN to 3rd in the division at best.  So, we only need one more wild card to be either better than 8-8 or have tiebreaker advantage in all scenarios over MINN.  With NO at 8-3, a win or tie by them would secure that other wild card and NO, even though they beat MINN H2H week 1, could still lose to MINN in multi-team tiebreak based on conference record...so they need the win or tie in this scenario.  Also, a win or tie by 7-4 TB would also create a situation where TB plays NO week 17 and the winner (or "tie-ers") of that game would be better than 8-8.   So, a MINN loss plus the GB win plus a CHI win/tie and either a NO win/tie or a TB win/tie would eliminate MINN this year.

MINN out with:
- LOSS + CHI win/tie + GB win + NO win/tie
- LOSS + CHI win/tie + GB win + TB win/tie
Look for my posts in the comments below throughout the weekend for updates.   If significant Week 14 sceanrios surface on Sunday, I'll likely post a new blog on that.   Once we get into heavy tiebreaker scenarios, I'll likely split the AFC and NFC scenarios into separate blogs.

Enjoy!


Posted on: November 27, 2010 3:17 am
 

Here We Go Again! Playoff Race Blog 2010

It's that time of year again where we dive into all of the various NFL playoff race possibilities...including division clinching scenarios, homefield advantage throughout the playoffs, wild card spots, seeding possibilities and the inevitable elimination scenarios and ultimately draft positioning.

This year, much like last year, I'm going to post tiebreaker updates to this blog on a regular basis, react to scenario questions both in the blog and in appropriate threads and work with the CBSSports.com production team on providing the earliest and most up-to-date playoff scenarios available.  I'm also going to try and live blog this year more often with key updates DURING NFL games and provide updates for you the same way I do with CBS Sports and team personnel with an interest in scenarios.

WHY ME?
For some background, I handled the official tiebreakers for the NFL from the 1992 playoffs through the 1999 season and have worked with the League and their official stats source (Elias Sports Bureau) in compiling the official tiebreaker scenarios since leaving the League to join CBS SportsLine in 2000.  I have transitioned jobs from Executive Producer at CBS SportsLine (now CBSSports.com) to being the liaison for CBS Interactive to the CBS Entertainment Network and CBS TV Studios in Los Angeles...but I keep my fingers in sports through this venture and working with the CBS Sports division and various NFL teams and media outlets on playoff scenarios.  This allows CBSSports.com to publish what is typically the FIRST look at what will be OFFICIAL NFL tiebreaker scenarios.  I'll try and blog my way through the process...so you can get an insight into your favorite teams prospects (or maybe your mortal enemies) and get a better understanding how NFL Tiebreakers work and the interesting nuances that will surface.

As I stated last year, please DON'T BE SHY with the questions as I often get extremely insightful feedback from fans and closet tiebreaker gurus (there are many of you out there that will be ever-present on this board...and I LOVE IT!) that help me along the way.

With a large number of teams bunched at the top of many divisions, this is sure to be a complicated, challenging but very enjoyable tiebreaker ride in 2010.

FYI:   We already have CAROLINA (Week 11) AND DETROIT (Week 12) ELIMINATED THIS YEAR and may still add others to the mix during Week 12.  Stay Tuned! 

Joe Ferreira
(JoeNFL)

Posted on: November 30, 2009 2:47 am
 

Looking Toward Week 13

Let's get an early start on Week 13.

First, to recap Week 12, we had the following occur:
- INDY CLINCHED THE AFC SOUTH division title with their win and JAX loss.
- NEW ORLEANS could not clinch the NFC South title since ATL won and can still catch the Saints in the division even with a Saints win this Monday Night.
- CLEVELAND, TAMPA BAY, DETROIT and ST. LOUIS were all ELIMINATED FROM PLAYOFF CONTENTION.


MINNESOTA CAN CLINCH the NFC NORTH division title with:
- WIN at Arizona + GB loss vs. Balt

NEW ORLEANS CAN CLINCH the NFC SOUTH division title with:
- Two WINS (this week and next)
- One WIN + One TIE (over this week and next)
- One WIN (either week) + ATL loss or tie vs. Phil

(still looking at N.O. clinching a playoff berth with One Win + ATL win...and MINN clinching with win + GB win...will confirm either way after game tomorrow or sooner)

Quick look shows INDY CAN CLINCH a FIRST-ROUND PLAYOFF BYE with a WIN + SD loss + CIN loss + DEN loss/tie + NE loss to MIA (will confirm in the a.m.)
- WIN gets Indy to 12-4 at worst and 8-4 at worst in conference.
- INDY needs DEN loss or tie since they play DEN in 2 weeks and Broncos could have conf record advantage as well w/o loss or tie.
- SD and CIN both losing gets rid of one of them since they play each other...but keep in mind CIN can still beat INDY since they could still get to 9-3 in conference and beat Indy on that basis.
- INDY would have common opponents advantage over SD (4-1 vs. 3-2)
- NE loss to MIA is key since it would be a conference loss getting NE to 8-4 at best AND would give INDY the common games tiebreaker among INDY, NE and SD (4-1 vs. 3-2 for others). 
- If there is a 3-way tie among IND, CIN and NE, CIN would have to win out after losing this week to tie Indy at 12-4 and that would make them #1 with 9-3 conf record and would pit INDY vs NE for #2 and Bill Belichick helped decide that for Indy.  ;-)

Joe


Posted on: November 17, 2009 5:47 pm
 

Let's Get the Party Started!

It's that time of year again where we dive into all of the various NFL playoff race possibilities...including division clinching scenarios, homefield advantage throughout the playoffs, wild card spots, seeding possibilities and the inevitable elimination scenarios and ultimately draft positioning.  This year I'm going to post tiebreaker updates to this blog on a regular basis, react to scenario questions both in the blog and in appropriate threads and work with the CBSSports.com production team on providing the earliest and most up-to-date playoff scenarios available.

WHY ME?
For some background, I handled the official tiebreakers for the NFL from the 1992 playoffs through the 1999 season and have worked with the League and their official stats source (Elias Sports Bureau) in compiling the official tiebreaker scenarios since leaving the League to join CBS SportsLine in 2000.  I have transitioned jobs from Executive Producer at CBS SportsLine (now CBSSports.com) to being the liaison for CBS Interactive to the CBS Entertainment Network and CBS TV Studios in Los Angeles...but I keep my fingers in sports through this venture and working with the CBS Sports division and various NFL teams and media outlets on playoff scenarios.  This allows CBSSports.com to publish what is typically the FIRST look at what will be OFFICIAL NFL tiebreaker scenarios.  I'll try and blog my way through the process...so you can get an insight into your favorite teams prospects (or maybe your mortal enemies) and get a better understanding how NFL Tiebreakers work and the interesting nuances that will surface.

Enjoy the ride...should be fun...and don't be shy with the questions as I often get extremely insightful feedback from fans and closet tiebreaker gurus that help me along the way.

Joe Ferreira
(JoeNFL)

 
 
 
 
The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com