Tag:Wild Card
Posted on: December 1, 2010 2:29 pm

Week 13 Elimination Scenarios

Since we don't have any clinching scenarios for week 13 (first time this has occurred in the League since the 2000 season), I will detail the ELIMINATION SCENARIOS that could come into play this week.

CLEV can be eliminated this week with a loss at MIA and a BAL-PIT tie game.  The BAL-PIT tie advances both BAL and PIT ahead of the best CLEV can get to in this scenario (8-8) and would create 6 teams better CLEV (4 division winners plus 2 wild cards better than 8-8).

CLEV out with:
- LOSS + BAL-PIT tie
DEN is eliminated with a loss at KC.  Pretty simple...DEN would be 7-9 at best and KC would be 8-8 at worst so DEN couldn't win the division and there are already two wild card teams better than 7-9.

DEN out with:

I have DAL eliminated with a LOSS AND EITHER a PHIL win/tie OR a GB win/tie OR a TB win/tie.  A loss combined with a win or tie by any of those three teams and DAL is done.  If DAL loses, that gets them to 7-9 at best.   That record would eliminate them from winning the NFC East as NYG and PHIL play each other week 15 and one of them would be better than 7-9.  Also, and this is important to note, NYG plays GB week 16 so one of those teams is guaranteed to be better than 7-9 as well.  A NYG Win on it's own doesn't eliminate DAL with a loss as NYG could beat PHIL week 15 and GB week 16 and PHIL, GB and TB could lose out and DAL could win that tiebreaker at 7-9.  In that tiebreaker, DAL can still get to 6-6 in conf record even with a loss this week, and they can still sweep PHIL and, even though they lost H2H to GB, would beat GB and TB in 3-way wild card tiebreaker on conf record (6-6 to 5-7 for the other two teams).  HOWEVER, a PHIL win/tie by itself would eliminate DAL with a loss as that would get PHIL better than 7-9 AND when you factor in NYG and GB playing week 16, would get two wild card teams better than DAL at 7-9.  If neither NYG or PHIL win/tie this week, a GB or TB win/tie would eliminate DAL with a loss as that would put two wild card teams better than DAL at 7-9 and remember that NYG and PHIL still play each other week 15 which would keep DAL from winning the division.

DAL out with:
- LOSS + PHIL win/tie
- LOSS + GB win/tie
- LOSS + TB win/tie

MINN can also be eliminated this week.  I have MINN out with a LOSS AND CHI win/tie AND GB win AND EITHER a NO win/tie or TB win/tie.  A MINN loss would get them to 4-8 and 8-8 at best (they do have a chance to still get to 8-4 in conference).  If GB wins, that gets them to 8-8 at worst and GB has swept MINN.  Even though CHI-GB play each other week 17, we would still need a CHI win or tie to eliminate MINN this week as MINN could beat CHI on common opponents.  The CHI win/tie and GB win would relegate MINN to 3rd in the division at best.  So, we only need one more wild card to be either better than 8-8 or have tiebreaker advantage in all scenarios over MINN.  With NO at 8-3, a win or tie by them would secure that other wild card and NO, even though they beat MINN H2H week 1, could still lose to MINN in multi-team tiebreak based on conference record...so they need the win or tie in this scenario.  Also, a win or tie by 7-4 TB would also create a situation where TB plays NO week 17 and the winner (or "tie-ers") of that game would be better than 8-8.   So, a MINN loss plus the GB win plus a CHI win/tie and either a NO win/tie or a TB win/tie would eliminate MINN this year.

MINN out with:
- LOSS + CHI win/tie + GB win + NO win/tie
- LOSS + CHI win/tie + GB win + TB win/tie
Look for my posts in the comments below throughout the weekend for updates.   If significant Week 14 sceanrios surface on Sunday, I'll likely post a new blog on that.   Once we get into heavy tiebreaker scenarios, I'll likely split the AFC and NFC scenarios into separate blogs.


Posted on: November 27, 2010 3:17 am

Here We Go Again! Playoff Race Blog 2010

It's that time of year again where we dive into all of the various NFL playoff race possibilities...including division clinching scenarios, homefield advantage throughout the playoffs, wild card spots, seeding possibilities and the inevitable elimination scenarios and ultimately draft positioning.

This year, much like last year, I'm going to post tiebreaker updates to this blog on a regular basis, react to scenario questions both in the blog and in appropriate threads and work with the CBSSports.com production team on providing the earliest and most up-to-date playoff scenarios available.  I'm also going to try and live blog this year more often with key updates DURING NFL games and provide updates for you the same way I do with CBS Sports and team personnel with an interest in scenarios.

For some background, I handled the official tiebreakers for the NFL from the 1992 playoffs through the 1999 season and have worked with the League and their official stats source (Elias Sports Bureau) in compiling the official tiebreaker scenarios since leaving the League to join CBS SportsLine in 2000.  I have transitioned jobs from Executive Producer at CBS SportsLine (now CBSSports.com) to being the liaison for CBS Interactive to the CBS Entertainment Network and CBS TV Studios in Los Angeles...but I keep my fingers in sports through this venture and working with the CBS Sports division and various NFL teams and media outlets on playoff scenarios.  This allows CBSSports.com to publish what is typically the FIRST look at what will be OFFICIAL NFL tiebreaker scenarios.  I'll try and blog my way through the process...so you can get an insight into your favorite teams prospects (or maybe your mortal enemies) and get a better understanding how NFL Tiebreakers work and the interesting nuances that will surface.

As I stated last year, please DON'T BE SHY with the questions as I often get extremely insightful feedback from fans and closet tiebreaker gurus (there are many of you out there that will be ever-present on this board...and I LOVE IT!) that help me along the way.

With a large number of teams bunched at the top of many divisions, this is sure to be a complicated, challenging but very enjoyable tiebreaker ride in 2010.

FYI:   We already have CAROLINA (Week 11) AND DETROIT (Week 12) ELIMINATED THIS YEAR and may still add others to the mix during Week 12.  Stay Tuned! 

Joe Ferreira

The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com