Category:NFL
Posted on: December 22, 2009 1:32 am
 

2009 AFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

AFC
(Key Week 16 Games: BAL @ PIT, KC @ CIN, DEN @ PHI, HOU @ MIA, NYJ @ IND, JAC @ NE, SD @ TEN)  

SAN DIEGO Chargers
  San Diego clinches a first-round bye:
   1) SD win or tie
   2) NE loss or tie

NEW ENGLAND Patriots
  New England clinches East division:
   1) NE win or tie
   2) MIA loss or tie
  

CINCINNATI Bengals
  Cincinnati clinches North division:
   1) CIN win
   2) CIN tie + BAL loss or tie
   3) BAL loss
  Cincinnati clinches a playoff spot:
   1) CIN tie
   2) JAC loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie + HOU/MIA game ends in a tie
  

BALTIMORE Ravens
  Baltimore clinches a playoff spot:
   1) BAL win + JAC loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie
   2) BAL win + JAC loss or tie + DEN loss
   2) BAL win + MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie + DEN loss
   3) BAL tie + NYJ loss + JAC loss + TEN loss or tie + HOU/MIA game ends in tie
  

DENVER Broncos
  Denver clinches a playoff spot:
   1) DEN win + JAC loss or tie + MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie +
       PIT loss or tie
Posted on: December 22, 2009 1:26 am
 

2009 NFC SCENARIOS - Weeks 16 and 17

NFC
(Key Week 16 Games: CAR @ NYG, MIN @ CHI, DAL @ WAS, SEA @ GB, TB @ NO, DEN @ PHI)

NEW ORLEANS Saints
  New Orleans clinches homefield advantage throughout NFC playoffs:
   1) NO win or tie
   2) MIN loss or tie
  

MINNESOTA Vikings
  Minnesota clinches a first-round bye:
   1) MIN win + PHI loss or tie
   2) MIN tie + PHI loss
 

PHILADELPHIA Eagles
  Philadelphia clinches East division:
   1) PHI win + DAL loss or tie
   2) PHI tie + DAL loss
 

GREEN BAY Packers
  Green Bay clinches a playoff spot:
   1) GB win + NYG loss or tie
   2) GB win + DAL loss
   3) GB tie + NYG loss

DALLAS Cowbo
ys
  Dallas clinches a playoff spot:
   1) DAL win + NYG loss or tie
   2) DAL tie + NYG loss
  
Posted on: December 21, 2009 1:51 am
 

EARLY WEEK 16 SCENARIOS

Here's prelim look at Week 16 (i'll break this into AFC and NFC for Tuesday if that's the way people want it):

NFC
(Key Games: NYG at WAS Monday night, CAR @ NYG, MIN @ CHI, DAL @ WAS, SEA @ GB, TB @ NO, DEN @ PHI)

  NEW ORLEANS Saints
  New Orleans clinches homefield advantage throughout NFC playoffs:
   1) NO win or tie
   2) MIN loss or tie
  MINNESOTA Vikings
  Minnesota clinches a first-round bye:
   1) MIN win + PHI loss or tie
   2) MIN tie + PHI loss
  PHILADELPHIA Eagles
  Philadelphia clinches East division:
   1) PHI win + DAL loss or tie
   2) PHI tie + DAL loss
  GREEN BAY Packers
  Green Bay clinches a playoff spot:
  IF NY Giants BEAT WASHINGTON
   1) GB win + NYG loss or tie
   2) GB win + DAL loss
   3) GB tie + NYG loss
  IF WASHINGTON BEATS NY GIANTS
   1) GB win or tie
   2) NYG loss or tie
  DALLAS Cowboys
  Dallas clinches a playoff spot:
  IF NY GIANTS BEAT WASHINGTON
   1) DAL win + NYG loss or tie
   2) DAL tie + NYG loss
  IF WASHINGTON BEATS NY GIANTS
   1) DAL win or tie
   2) NYG loss or tie
 
 AFC
(Key Games: BAL @ PIT, KC @ CIN, DEN @ PHI, HOU @ MIA, NYJ @ IND, JAC @ NE, SD @ TEN)  

  SAN DIEGO Chargers
  San Diego clinches a first-round bye:
   1) SD win or tie
   2) NE loss or tie
  NEW ENGLAND Patriots
  New England clinches East division:
   1) NE win or tie
   2) MIA loss or tie
  CINCINNATI Bengals
  Cincinnati clinches North division:
   1) CIN win
   2) CIN tie + BAL loss or tie
   3) BAL loss
  Cincinnati clinches a playoff spot:
   1) CIN tie
   2) JAC loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie + HOU/MIA game ends in a tie
  BALTIMORE Ravens
  Baltimore clinches a playoff spot:
   1) BAL win + JAC loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie
   2) BAL win + JAC loss or tie + DEN loss
   2) BAL win + MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie + DEN loss
   3) BAL tie + NYJ loss + JAC loss + TEN loss or tie + HOU/MIA game ends in tie
  DENVER Broncos
  Denver clinches a playoff spot:
   1) DEN win + JAC loss or tie + MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie +
       PIT loss or tie

[Note:  I think DEN scenario works with HOU beating MIA because DEN would clinch SOV over HOU in this scenario.  In initial review, I have DEN +12 wins in unduplicated victories and HOU only has ability to gain 9 wins over last two weeks.] 
Posted on: December 15, 2009 10:46 am
 

WEEK 15 NFC SCENARIOS

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF PICTURE:

 NFC
(LET'S KEEP THIS THREAD TO NFC WEEK 15 SCENARIOS)

  CLINCHED:   New Orleans -- South division and a first-round bye.
              Minnesota -- playoff spot.
  ELIMINATED: Detroit, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Washington, Chicago.

 NEW ORLEANS Saints
  New Orleans clinches homefield advantage:
   1) NO win + MIN loss or tie
   2) NO tie + MIN loss

 MINNESOTA Vikings
  Minnesota clinches North division:
   1) MIN win
   2) MIN tie + GB loss or tie
   3) GB loss
  Minnesota clinches a first-round bye:
   1) MIN win + PHI loss or tie
   2) MIN tie + GB loss or tie + PHI loss

 ARIZONA Cardinals
  Arizona clinches West division:
    1) ARI win + SF loss or tie
    2) ARI tie + SF loss

 PHILADELPHIA Eagles
  Philadelphia clinches a playoff spot:
   1) PHI win or tie + NYG loss or tie
   2) PHI win + DAL win or tie

 GREEN BAY Packers
  Green Bay clinches a playoff spot:
   1) GB win + DAL loss
   2) GB win + NYG loss or tie
   3) GB tie + NYG loss

The GB situation is interesting.  Since GB beat DAL H2H and there is no other team that DAL can use from another division in a three-team tiebreaker, DAL would need to win the East division title to keep GB out.  If DAL loses this week to NO, the potential three-team tie for the division title among PHIL, DAL and NYG could stretch out to strength of victory if PHI win is against DEN.  However, it appears there is no way in that scenario that DAL could finish ahead of NYG, meaning DAL would have no chance to win the division, which means they could not clinch a playoff spot ahead of GB.

 

Posted on: December 15, 2009 12:21 am
 

WEEK 15 AFC SCENARIOS

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF PICTURE:

 AFC
(LET'S KEEP THIS THREAD TO AFC WEEK 15 COMMENTS)

  CLINCHED:   Indianapolis -- South division and homefield advantage.
  ELIMINATED: Cleveland, Kansas City, Oakland.

 SAN DIEGO Chargers

  San Diego clinches West division title:
   1) DEN loss
   2) SD win or tie + DEN tie
  San Diego clinches a first-round bye:
   1) SD win + DEN loss or tie + NE loss or tie
  San Diego clinches a playoff spot:
   1) SD win or tie
   2) NE loss or tie + BAL loss or tie + MIA loss or tie
   3) NE loss or tie + BAL loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie
   4) MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
   5) MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie + JAC loss or tie
   6) MIA loss or tie + BAL loss or tie + JAC loss or tie
   7) NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie + JAC loss or tie

 CINCINNATI Bengals

  Cincinnati clinches North division title:
   1) CIN win
   2) CIN tie + BAL loss or tie
   3) BAL loss
  Cincinnati clinches a playoff spot:
   1) CIN tie + MIA loss + NYJ loss + JAC loss

Posted on: December 8, 2009 4:32 am
 

WEEK 14 - The Calm before the Storm

WEEK 14 SCENARIOS

NEW ORLEANS Saints
New Orleans has clinched the South division title.

New Orleans clinches a first-round bye:
   1) NO win or tie
   2) DAL loss or tie + PHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie

MINNESOTA Vikings
Minnesota clinches North division:
   1) MIN win + GB loss
Minnesota clinches a playoff spot:
   1) MIN win
   2) MIN tie + NYG loss

ARIZONA Cardinals
Arizona clinches West division:
   1) ARI win

INDIANAPOLIS Colts
Indianapolis has clinched the South division title.

Indianapolis clinches homefield advantage throughout AFC playoffs:
   1) IND win
   2) IND tie + CIN loss + SD loss
Indianapolis clinches a first-round bye:
   1) IND tie
   2) CIN loss or tie + SD loss
   3) CIN loss + SD loss or tie

SAN DIEGO Chargers
San Diego clinches a playoff spot:
   1) SD win + BAL loss or tie + PIT loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie + MIA loss or tie
   2) SD win + BAL loss or tie + PIT loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie + NE loss or tie
   3) SD win + BAL loss or tie + PIT loss or tie + JAC tie + NE loss
   4) SD tie + BAL loss + PIT loss + NYJ loss + MIA loss

CINCINNATI Bengals
Cincinnati clinches North division:
   1) CIN win
   2) CIN tie + BAL loss or tie + PIT loss or tie
   3) BAL loss + PIT loss 


KEY GAMES WEEK 14:
THURS 12/10
- PIT @ CLEV (Pitt last hope?)
SUN 12/13 (1PM)
- GB @ CHIC (Need to win this with PIT, SEA and ARIZ coming up)
- NO @ ATL (ATL still in running although bleak, NO looking for HFA)
- DET @ BALT (MNF loss a killer for BALT...need to stay with JAX)
- DEN @ INDY (DEN still in div hunt and 2 of last 3 are easier, OAK and KC)
- NYJ @ TB (Jets still alive...but last 3 games tough with ATL, IND and CIN)
- CAR @ NE (Pats still stinging from MIA loss...need to bounce back)
- MIA @ JAX (Huge game for AFC Tiebreak...can separate JAX or bunch it up)
- CIN @ MIN (both teams battling for playoff bye)
SUN 12/13 (4PM)
- SD @ DAL (SD on a roll looking to get div and bye, DALL has TOUGH road ahead)
SUN 12/13 (8:30PM)
- PHIL @ NYG (NFC East crown likely on line due to DALL sked)
MON 12/14
- ARIZ @ SF (Division crown on line)

ELIMINATED TEAMS:
DET, STL, TB, CLEV, WASH, KC

Current Seeds IF SEASON ENDED TODAY:
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/standi
ngs/playoffrace

(Tip:  You can mouse over team names in playoff race and get Remaining Schedule)

Lensova...please post your "Spectrum of Possibilities" note here...

Scot...please post your "Controls Own Destiny" note that you stole from Lensova here...

Posted on: December 6, 2009 10:47 pm
 

Looking Toward Week 14

I'm writing this during the MIN-ARIZ game which has some impact on tiebreakers, as does the GB-BALT game on Monday night, so these are preliminary thoughts on playoff scenarios for Week 14.

WHAT WE KNOW NOW:
- INDY has clinched the AFC South division title
- N.O. has clinched the NFC South division title
- MINN can clinch playoff berth with WIN tonight
- MINN can clinch NFC North division title with WIN tonight and GB loss Monday night

ELIMINATED TEAMS prior to this week:
- DET, CLEV, TB and STL

NEW ELIMINATED TEAMS:
- WASH has been eliminated from playoff contention this week.   WASH best record at this point is 7-9 and they can't catch DAL for division or PHIL for top wild card.  Also...since they can't win any tiebreaker with NYG in their division due to division record, they can't get to at least #3 in their division and that eliminates a team from the playoffs.
- KC has been eliminated from playoff contention this week.  This is due to domino effect of games yet to be played.  Best KC can be is 7-9 and 6-6 in AFC games and that means they can't catch DEN as the Top Wild Card and JAX already has 7 wins (JAX beat KC H2H, but still have to look at multi-team tiebreakers).  JAX would have to lose out to keep KC alive and that would mean MIA would get their 7th win (and also means NE would get their 8th win).  MIA would then have to lose out their other games and that would give PITT their 7th win.  PITT would have to lose out their other games and that would give BALT their 7th win (which they could also get tomorrow night).  BALT, who beat KC H2H week 1, would also get their 7th conference win with a win over PITT and that would best KC in conference record and BALT would be ahead of PITT in division tiebreaker based on H2H.  Since KC lost to BALT H2H and can't win any multi-team H2H ties, KC would lose to BALT in any tiebreaker based on conference record and are eliminated from playoff competition.

Early week 14 scenarios:
- INDY can clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs with a WIN vs. DEN week 14.  That would get them to 13-3 at worst and ony CIN and SD can catch them at 13-3 and only one of those two teams can get there at CIN plays SD week 15.  If it's CIN at 13-3, they both would be 9-3 in conf record and INDY would beat CIN on common games 4-1 to 3-2.  If it's SD at 13-3, they both would be 9-3 in conf record and INDY would beat SD on common games 5-0 to 3-2.

- CIN can clinch the AFC North division title with a WIN at MINN week 14 + one BALT loss either Monday at GB or next week vs. DET.  CIN getting to 10 wins with both PITT and BALT at 6 losses locks up the division for the Bengals since they have swept both teams this year.

- ARIZ, with a win tonight against MINN, can clinch the NFC West division title with a WIN at SF week 14.  ARIZ would be 9-7 at worst and would give SF their 8th loss and ARIZ has a season H2H sweep against SEA.

More to come as we get through SNF and MNF games.

Joe

Posted on: December 6, 2009 5:57 pm
 

After 1pm ET games Week 13

* New Orleans clinched the NFC South division title

* MINN can clinch NFC North with Win tonight vs ARIZ + GB loss Monday night. 
A MINN win tonight will get them at least a playoff berth.  Also, a tie and a NYG loss today will get the Vikings a playoff spot.

* Indy has already clinched the AFC South and will not clinch a first round bye this week.
HOWEVER, IND can clinch homefield advantage hroughout the playoffs with a win at home week 14 vs DEN.

* CIN can clinch the AFC North division title with a WIN next week at MINN and one BALT loss either this Monday night at GB OR next week vs. DET

Much more to come later...

 
 
 
 
The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com