Play Fantasy The Most Award Winning Fantasy game with real time scoring, top expert analysis, custom settings, and more. Play Now
 
Tag:Playoff Race
Posted on: December 15, 2009 10:46 am
 

WEEK 15 NFC SCENARIOS

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF PICTURE:

 NFC
(LET'S KEEP THIS THREAD TO NFC WEEK 15 SCENARIOS)

  CLINCHED:   New Orleans -- South division and a first-round bye.
              Minnesota -- playoff spot.
  ELIMINATED: Detroit, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Washington, Chicago.

 NEW ORLEANS Saints
  New Orleans clinches homefield advantage:
   1) NO win + MIN loss or tie
   2) NO tie + MIN loss

 MINNESOTA Vikings
  Minnesota clinches North division:
   1) MIN win
   2) MIN tie + GB loss or tie
   3) GB loss
  Minnesota clinches a first-round bye:
   1) MIN win + PHI loss or tie
   2) MIN tie + GB loss or tie + PHI loss

 ARIZONA Cardinals
  Arizona clinches West division:
    1) ARI win + SF loss or tie
    2) ARI tie + SF loss

 PHILADELPHIA Eagles
  Philadelphia clinches a playoff spot:
   1) PHI win or tie + NYG loss or tie
   2) PHI win + DAL win or tie

 GREEN BAY Packers
  Green Bay clinches a playoff spot:
   1) GB win + DAL loss
   2) GB win + NYG loss or tie
   3) GB tie + NYG loss

The GB situation is interesting.  Since GB beat DAL H2H and there is no other team that DAL can use from another division in a three-team tiebreaker, DAL would need to win the East division title to keep GB out.  If DAL loses this week to NO, the potential three-team tie for the division title among PHIL, DAL and NYG could stretch out to strength of victory if PHI win is against DEN.  However, it appears there is no way in that scenario that DAL could finish ahead of NYG, meaning DAL would have no chance to win the division, which means they could not clinch a playoff spot ahead of GB.

 

Posted on: December 15, 2009 12:21 am
 

WEEK 15 AFC SCENARIOS

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF PICTURE:

 AFC
(LET'S KEEP THIS THREAD TO AFC WEEK 15 COMMENTS)

  CLINCHED:   Indianapolis -- South division and homefield advantage.
  ELIMINATED: Cleveland, Kansas City, Oakland.

 SAN DIEGO Chargers

  San Diego clinches West division title:
   1) DEN loss
   2) SD win or tie + DEN tie
  San Diego clinches a first-round bye:
   1) SD win + DEN loss or tie + NE loss or tie
  San Diego clinches a playoff spot:
   1) SD win or tie
   2) NE loss or tie + BAL loss or tie + MIA loss or tie
   3) NE loss or tie + BAL loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie
   4) MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
   5) MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie + JAC loss or tie
   6) MIA loss or tie + BAL loss or tie + JAC loss or tie
   7) NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie + JAC loss or tie

 CINCINNATI Bengals

  Cincinnati clinches North division title:
   1) CIN win
   2) CIN tie + BAL loss or tie
   3) BAL loss
  Cincinnati clinches a playoff spot:
   1) CIN tie + MIA loss + NYJ loss + JAC loss

Posted on: December 8, 2009 4:32 am
 

WEEK 14 - The Calm before the Storm

WEEK 14 SCENARIOS

NEW ORLEANS Saints
New Orleans has clinched the South division title.

New Orleans clinches a first-round bye:
   1) NO win or tie
   2) DAL loss or tie + PHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie

MINNESOTA Vikings
Minnesota clinches North division:
   1) MIN win + GB loss
Minnesota clinches a playoff spot:
   1) MIN win
   2) MIN tie + NYG loss

ARIZONA Cardinals
Arizona clinches West division:
   1) ARI win

INDIANAPOLIS Colts
Indianapolis has clinched the South division title.

Indianapolis clinches homefield advantage throughout AFC playoffs:
   1) IND win
   2) IND tie + CIN loss + SD loss
Indianapolis clinches a first-round bye:
   1) IND tie
   2) CIN loss or tie + SD loss
   3) CIN loss + SD loss or tie

SAN DIEGO Chargers
San Diego clinches a playoff spot:
   1) SD win + BAL loss or tie + PIT loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie + MIA loss or tie
   2) SD win + BAL loss or tie + PIT loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie + NE loss or tie
   3) SD win + BAL loss or tie + PIT loss or tie + JAC tie + NE loss
   4) SD tie + BAL loss + PIT loss + NYJ loss + MIA loss

CINCINNATI Bengals
Cincinnati clinches North division:
   1) CIN win
   2) CIN tie + BAL loss or tie + PIT loss or tie
   3) BAL loss + PIT loss 


KEY GAMES WEEK 14:
THURS 12/10
- PIT @ CLEV (Pitt last hope?)
SUN 12/13 (1PM)
- GB @ CHIC (Need to win this with PIT, SEA and ARIZ coming up)
- NO @ ATL (ATL still in running although bleak, NO looking for HFA)
- DET @ BALT (MNF loss a killer for BALT...need to stay with JAX)
- DEN @ INDY (DEN still in div hunt and 2 of last 3 are easier, OAK and KC)
- NYJ @ TB (Jets still alive...but last 3 games tough with ATL, IND and CIN)
- CAR @ NE (Pats still stinging from MIA loss...need to bounce back)
- MIA @ JAX (Huge game for AFC Tiebreak...can separate JAX or bunch it up)
- CIN @ MIN (both teams battling for playoff bye)
SUN 12/13 (4PM)
- SD @ DAL (SD on a roll looking to get div and bye, DALL has TOUGH road ahead)
SUN 12/13 (8:30PM)
- PHIL @ NYG (NFC East crown likely on line due to DALL sked)
MON 12/14
- ARIZ @ SF (Division crown on line)

ELIMINATED TEAMS:
DET, STL, TB, CLEV, WASH, KC

Current Seeds IF SEASON ENDED TODAY:
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/standi
ngs/playoffrace

(Tip:  You can mouse over team names in playoff race and get Remaining Schedule)

Lensova...please post your "Spectrum of Possibilities" note here...

Scot...please post your "Controls Own Destiny" note that you stole from Lensova here...

Posted on: December 6, 2009 10:47 pm
 

Looking Toward Week 14

I'm writing this during the MIN-ARIZ game which has some impact on tiebreakers, as does the GB-BALT game on Monday night, so these are preliminary thoughts on playoff scenarios for Week 14.

WHAT WE KNOW NOW:
- INDY has clinched the AFC South division title
- N.O. has clinched the NFC South division title
- MINN can clinch playoff berth with WIN tonight
- MINN can clinch NFC North division title with WIN tonight and GB loss Monday night

ELIMINATED TEAMS prior to this week:
- DET, CLEV, TB and STL

NEW ELIMINATED TEAMS:
- WASH has been eliminated from playoff contention this week.   WASH best record at this point is 7-9 and they can't catch DAL for division or PHIL for top wild card.  Also...since they can't win any tiebreaker with NYG in their division due to division record, they can't get to at least #3 in their division and that eliminates a team from the playoffs.
- KC has been eliminated from playoff contention this week.  This is due to domino effect of games yet to be played.  Best KC can be is 7-9 and 6-6 in AFC games and that means they can't catch DEN as the Top Wild Card and JAX already has 7 wins (JAX beat KC H2H, but still have to look at multi-team tiebreakers).  JAX would have to lose out to keep KC alive and that would mean MIA would get their 7th win (and also means NE would get their 8th win).  MIA would then have to lose out their other games and that would give PITT their 7th win.  PITT would have to lose out their other games and that would give BALT their 7th win (which they could also get tomorrow night).  BALT, who beat KC H2H week 1, would also get their 7th conference win with a win over PITT and that would best KC in conference record and BALT would be ahead of PITT in division tiebreaker based on H2H.  Since KC lost to BALT H2H and can't win any multi-team H2H ties, KC would lose to BALT in any tiebreaker based on conference record and are eliminated from playoff competition.

Early week 14 scenarios:
- INDY can clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs with a WIN vs. DEN week 14.  That would get them to 13-3 at worst and ony CIN and SD can catch them at 13-3 and only one of those two teams can get there at CIN plays SD week 15.  If it's CIN at 13-3, they both would be 9-3 in conf record and INDY would beat CIN on common games 4-1 to 3-2.  If it's SD at 13-3, they both would be 9-3 in conf record and INDY would beat SD on common games 5-0 to 3-2.

- CIN can clinch the AFC North division title with a WIN at MINN week 14 + one BALT loss either Monday at GB or next week vs. DET.  CIN getting to 10 wins with both PITT and BALT at 6 losses locks up the division for the Bengals since they have swept both teams this year.

- ARIZ, with a win tonight against MINN, can clinch the NFC West division title with a WIN at SF week 14.  ARIZ would be 9-7 at worst and would give SF their 8th loss and ARIZ has a season H2H sweep against SEA.

More to come as we get through SNF and MNF games.

Joe

Posted on: December 1, 2009 1:18 am
 

WEEK 13 Scenarios

Based on New Orleans' victory over New England, here are the updated official NFL tiebreaker scenarios that will be released tomorrow:

NEW ORLEANS Saints

New Orleans clinches South division:
1) NO win or tie
2) ATL loss or tie

MINNESOTA Vikings

Minnesota clinches North division:
1) MIN win + GB loss

Minnesota clinches playoff spot:
1) MIN win
2) MIN tie + NYG loss + ATL loss or tie

INDIANAPOLIS Colts

Indianapolis clinches a first-round bye:
1) IND win + DEN loss or tie + NE loss or tie + CIN loss


Joe

Posted on: November 30, 2009 2:47 am
 

Looking Toward Week 13

Let's get an early start on Week 13.

First, to recap Week 12, we had the following occur:
- INDY CLINCHED THE AFC SOUTH division title with their win and JAX loss.
- NEW ORLEANS could not clinch the NFC South title since ATL won and can still catch the Saints in the division even with a Saints win this Monday Night.
- CLEVELAND, TAMPA BAY, DETROIT and ST. LOUIS were all ELIMINATED FROM PLAYOFF CONTENTION.


MINNESOTA CAN CLINCH the NFC NORTH division title with:
- WIN at Arizona + GB loss vs. Balt

NEW ORLEANS CAN CLINCH the NFC SOUTH division title with:
- Two WINS (this week and next)
- One WIN + One TIE (over this week and next)
- One WIN (either week) + ATL loss or tie vs. Phil

(still looking at N.O. clinching a playoff berth with One Win + ATL win...and MINN clinching with win + GB win...will confirm either way after game tomorrow or sooner)

Quick look shows INDY CAN CLINCH a FIRST-ROUND PLAYOFF BYE with a WIN + SD loss + CIN loss + DEN loss/tie + NE loss to MIA (will confirm in the a.m.)
- WIN gets Indy to 12-4 at worst and 8-4 at worst in conference.
- INDY needs DEN loss or tie since they play DEN in 2 weeks and Broncos could have conf record advantage as well w/o loss or tie.
- SD and CIN both losing gets rid of one of them since they play each other...but keep in mind CIN can still beat INDY since they could still get to 9-3 in conference and beat Indy on that basis.
- INDY would have common opponents advantage over SD (4-1 vs. 3-2)
- NE loss to MIA is key since it would be a conference loss getting NE to 8-4 at best AND would give INDY the common games tiebreaker among INDY, NE and SD (4-1 vs. 3-2 for others). 
- If there is a 3-way tie among IND, CIN and NE, CIN would have to win out after losing this week to tie Indy at 12-4 and that would make them #1 with 9-3 conf record and would pit INDY vs NE for #2 and Bill Belichick helped decide that for Indy.  ;-)

Joe


Posted on: November 27, 2009 4:17 am
 

Thanksgiving Tiebreaker Tidbits

Here's what we know based on Thanksgiving Day games:

- DET (2-9 overall, 1-8 NFC) is eliminated from playoff contention with a PHIL WIN OR TIE against WASH.  They could have been eliminated with a NYG win but that didn't happen.  Detroit now can't catch GB (due to H2H sweep) and would lose H2H to GB as well in 3-way tie with CHI at 7-9.  PHIL has conference record advantage over DET and win would guarantee they get to 7-9 at worst.  DET can't use any other team to jump over PHIL except for WASH who DET beat H2H.  However, if PHIL beats WASH, the Skins can't catch them in the division.  And even if PHIL ties WASH, that would give PHIL a H2H advantage over WASH (1-0-1 vs. 0-1-1).  Furthermore, a PHIL tie would require them to lose every remaining game, thus giving the Giants their 7th win and their 5th conference win which would best DET.  If PHIL ties NYG, that gives PHIL the divisional advantage and gets them to 6-8-2 which is the same as 7-9 and they would beat DET in the same tiebreakers fashion as if they had won this week.

- GB (7-4 overall, 6-3 NFC) now holds the #5 seed with their win but will drop back to #6 if PHIL beats WASH due to conference record (6-3 for GB vs. PHIL's 6-2).  NYG's loss to DEN aided the Packers immensely in the Wild Card race on overall record, but both teams have 3 conference losses.

- GB does control it's own destiny for the #5 seed however, since PHIL plays DALL and if GB wins out and PHIL wins out to tie them, that would give PHIL the NFC East title and GB has tiebreak over DALL due to H2H win.

- It should be noted that NYG would likely have common opponents record advantage over GB if they tie on overall record and conference record (all of NYG's remaining games are NFC games and GB could lose to either BAL or PIT).  If both teams tied at 11-5 and 9-3 in conf, the Giants would have common opponents advantage at 4-1 vs. 2-3.  I say "likely" as it depends on which games each team wins, but very likely the Giants would end up on top in this scenario.

- GB is the only team in the League in 2nd place where there is a two-game separation between them and both the team ahead of them and the team behind them.  Trivial...and fairly meaningless...but points out the hold they have on 2nd place in the NFC North.

- GB still has a long way to go to win the NFC North since they were swept by MINN, meaning the Pack needs to beat the Vikings outright to win the crown.

- DALL (8-3 overall, 6-2 NFC) gained a 1.5 game lead over PHIL and a 2 game lead over NYG with their victory and NYG's loss.  The only downside to the DALL win was it was a non-conference win and they remain at 6-2 in the conference.  

- DALL controls its own destiny for the NFC East title and a #4 seed.  They would need an ARIZ loss or tie this week to control the #3 seed.  PHIL also controls its own destiny for the #4 seed with game against the Cowboys still looming and they would have division record advantage if they can win that game.

- OAK (3-8 overall, 2-6 AFC) is not eliminated this week, despite the loss to DALL.  They would be eliminated from a potential division crown if SD beats KC this week.

- DEN (7-4 overall, 5-3 AFC) bounced back nicely from recent woes with the NYG win.  The Broncos are now 1/2 game behind SD and the Chargers have their final divisional game this week hosting KC.  DEN has yet to play KC yet so the Chiefs will has something to say about the AFC West title.

- If SD loses to KC this week, DEN will control its own destiny for the AFC West crown due to divisional record advantage.

- DEN's biggest issue in tiebreakers is that they have H2H losses against two Wild Card foes PITT and BALT and have a worse conference record than JAX.

- NYG (6-5 overall, 4-3 NFC) really put themselves behind the 8-ball with their loss this week with the only redeeming factor being it was a non-conference loss.  The Giants are now 2 games behind the Cowboys but can still gain a sweep against them by winning at home next week.

- This loss allows ATL to catch the Giants this week in the Wild Card race, but the Giants still have H2H win over ATL.  However, ATL plays PHIL in 2 weeks and could use the Eagles to jump over the Giants if they're all tied at the end.

Should be a fun weekend of games.  I'll be at the KC at SD game so I'll tweet from there with any relevant updates at www.twitter.com/NFL_Tiebreakers and obviously be back here for more blogs and banter.

Enjoy the leftovers.

Joe
Posted on: November 23, 2009 12:07 am
 

Looking Toward Week 12

Early week 12 tiebreaker notes:

NEW ORLEANS can clinch the NFC South title with:
- WIN + ATL loss or tie
- TIE + ATL loss

INDIANAPOLIS can clinch the AFC South title with:
- WIN + JAX loss

Key Week 12 Tiebreaker games include:
- PITT at BALT (Sunday Night)
- NYG at DEN (Thanksgiving Night)
- NE at NO (Monday night)
 

 
 
 
 
The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com