Tag:Josh Johnson
Posted on: January 11, 2011 1:55 pm
Edited on: April 18, 2011 11:25 am
 

Bumgarner among those on Verducci Effect list

Madison Bumgarner Sports Illustrated 's Tom Verducci has come out with his Verducci Effect watch list for 2011 , led by San Francisco left-hander Madison Bumgarner.

The Verducci Effect states pitchers 25 and younger shouldn't increase their workload more than 30 innings from one year to the next. (In fairness to Verducci, he originally called it the "Year After Effect" because the year after the jump in innings there was a regression or injury).

Last year the 10 on the watch list finished with four pitchers who were hurt or regressed, two we about the same and four -- Mat Latos, Felix Hernandez, Josh Johnson and Max Scherzer had breakout years. Verducci notes it was "as strong a showing against the Verducci Effect since I started tracking it."

The 10 on his list for 2011, followed by their age and innings increase in 2010:
Madison Bumgarner, 21, 73
Alex Sanabia, 22, 66 1/3
Mat Latos, 23, 61 2/3
David Price, 25, 58 2/3
Brandon Beachy, 24, 57
Phil Hughes, 24, 46
Brett Cecil, 24, 41 1/3
Gio Gonzalez, 25, 41
Dillon Gee, 24, 40
Travis Wood, 23, 38 1/3
Ivan Nova, 23, 38 1/3

That's not to say all of these pitchers will struggle or get hurt next season -- pitchers are being watch more closely than ever -- but it is something to watch.

-- C. Trent Rosecrans

For more baseball news, rumors and analysis, follow @cbssportsmlb  on Twitter or subscribe to the RSS feed.


Posted on: November 10, 2010 12:02 pm
Edited on: November 15, 2010 9:46 am
 

MLB Facts & Rumors Cy Young Awards

The major baseball awards will be announced next week, and the staff at MLB Facts and Rumors is making our choices this week. Today, David, Evan and Trent name their Manager of the Year selections. As with the BBWAA awards, a first-place vote is worth seven points, second place four, third place three, fourth place two and fifth place one.

While the National League award is for the best pitcher in the league, the American League vote seems to be a referendum on the BBWAA and its acceptance of newer statistics and abandoning the win as its basis for measuring a pitcher's success.

AMERICAN LEAGUE CY YOUNG AWARD

Felix Hernandez David Andriesen
1. Felix Hernandez, SEA
2. David Price, TB
3. CC Sabathia, NYY
4. Jon Lester, BOS
5. Jered Weaver, LAA

Some people will knock Hernandez for his team’s offensive futility, but I won’t. And if you take wins out of the discussion, he wins easily. Price edges Sabathia with an ERA nearly half a point better. If it seems strange Cliff Lee isn’t in this discussion, keep in mind he missed the first month of the season.

Evan Brunell
1. SP Felix Hernandez, SEA
2. SP CC Sabathia, NYY
3. SP Francisco Liriano, MIN
4. SP Jon Lester, BOS
5. SP David Price, TB

Lee stays off this ballot because in his time in Texas, he wasn't quite Cy Young-worthy as compared to full seasons of the above. Hernandez was otherworldly, but let down by one of baseball's worst offenses in history. With the run support of the Yankees, Hernandez very well could have reached 25 wins.

C. Trent Rosecrans
1. Felix Hernandez, SEA
2. David Price, TB
3. Francisco Liriano, MIN
4. CC Sabathia, NY
5. Cliff Lee, SEA/TEX

I think enough has been said about the Hernandez vs. the world, but I'm not sure Price or Liriano have quite gotten the credit they deserve. So many people have set it up as Hernandez vs. Sabathia, and I'm not so sure that's the right question.

NATIONAL LEAGUE CY YOUNG AWARD

Roy Halladay David Andriesen
1. Roy Halladay, PHI
2. Adam Wainwright, STL
3. Josh Johnson, FLA
4. Ubaldo Jimenez, COL
5. Tim Hudson, ATL

This one is really close, but I’m letting Halladay’s perfect game and NL lead in innings pitched put him ahead of Wainwright, who was second in the NL in wins and ERA. Jimenez came back to earth after his ridiculous first half, as did Johnson, who missed the last month but still finished with the ERA title.

Evan Brunell
1. SP Roy Halladay, PHI
2. SP Adam Wainwright, STL
3. SP Josh Johnson, FLA
4. SP Ubaldo Jimenez, COL
5. SP Tim Hudson, ATL

Halladay got more than he bargained for with Adam Wainwright neck-and-neck for the Cy race, but Halladay gets the nod due to innings pitched and xFIP, which clearly shows that Halladay was the better pitcher. His domination is evident to all.

C. Trent Rosecrans
1. Roy Halladay, PHI
2. Adam Wainwright, STL
3. Josh Johnson, FLA
4. Ubaldo Jimenez, COL
5. Tim Lincecum, SF

It seems to be hard to believe that Halladay didn't live up to expectations -- and considering some expected him to win 30 games, he didn't live up to the highest of expectation. But he still had an amazing season and should win this one going away against some pretty good competition. Still, the fact that Halladay did what he was able to do in a bandbox of a ballpark, it's quite impressive. Kind of like the Rookie of the Year, give me any of these guys in a Game 1 and I feel pretty good.

MLB Facts and Rumors AL Cy Young Award
It's at least a runaway here, as Felix Hernandez gets the nod, making stat-heads happy everywhere. CC Sabathia and David Price tie for what Ricky Bobby would call "first loser." I still have enough faith in the BBWAA that it'll get this one right, despite so many doubters.

MLB Facts and Rumors NL Cy Young Award
The voting isn't as close as the race, but Roy Halladay is the unanimous winner. Expect the real vote to be similar.

-- C. Trent Rosecrans

For more baseball news, rumors and analysis, follow @cbssportsmlb on Twitter or subscribe to the RSS feed.



Posted on: October 12, 2010 11:40 pm
Edited on: October 13, 2010 10:35 am
 

R.I.P. Marlins: New wave arrives

RIP As the sports world waits for the crowning of a champion, 22 other teams are busy preparing for spring training. What went wrong for these teams, and what does 2011 hold? MLB Facts and Rumors here at CBS Sports will be answering those questions through all of October. Now: the oft-maligned Florid Marlins.

The Marlins were slapped on the wrist in the offseason for not spending enough money on major-league payroll, then had their financials leaked. Meanwhile, owner Jeffrey Loria walked Fredi Gonzalez right out of town and into the grateful arms of the Braves, and the team missed .500 by one game.

WHAT WENT WRONG

The Marlins had a gaping hole at catcher for much of the season. John Baker was on the verge of establishing himself as a permanent starting catcher, but his 2010 season was cut off as soon as it had began and he underwent Tommy John surgery. That left Ronny Paulino, good only against lefties, to play full time before angering the organization after testing positive for PEDs. That left the team with Brett Hayes and Brad Davis down the stretch.

For the last two seasons, the Marlins have been waiting on Cameron Maybin to break out. They'll have to wait some more, as Maybin hit just .234/.302/.361 in 322 plate appearances and Cody Ross got the bulk of playing time in center before he was sent to the Giants. Florida remains high on the 23-year-old, but at some point has to start producing.

Ricky Nolasco has been far, far better than his ERAs of the last two seasons might indicated. Nolasco shacked up respective ERAs of 5.06 and 4.51 in 2009 and 2010, but his xFIP tells a far different story at 3.28 and 3.55, respectively. Luck and poor defense abandoned Nolasco, however, so he remains a tantalizing pitcher who just needs breaks to go his way.

WHAT WENT RIGHT

Mike Stanton The Marlins introduced some intriguing prospects to the majors, the most interesting of all being Mike Stanton (pictured, right). At just 20, Stanton bashed 22 home runs in 396 PA along with 22 doubles, good enough for a .259/.326/.507 line. All he has to do is cut down on strikeouts, raise the batting average and he will be a once-in-a-generation stud. As it is, he's already a once-in-a-generation power hitter.

He's joined by Logan Morrison, a natural first baseman who is playing out of position in left for the moment. In 287 PA, LoMo hit .283/.390/.447 and gives the Fish an incredible 3-4 combo for years. First baseman Gaby Sanchez also impressed, albeit at the advanced age of 27.

Josh Johnson was a dominating pitcher and proved Florida made the right call in signing him to a four-year deal just before the regular season. Johnson had a pedestrian 11-8 record thanks to bad luck, but was absolutely stellar in other facets of the game. His 2.30 ERA, 3.15 xFIP and 186 punchouts in 183 1/3 innings makes the 26-year-old one of the best pitchers in the game.

HELP ON THE WAY

Florida has graduated most of its better prospects already in Sanchez, Stanton, Morrison, Scott Cousins and Alex Sanabia. However, there are still two top prospects that could make an impact as soon as 2011.

Matt Dominguez, despite not playing above Double-A, is a candidate to start at third base for Florida as early as 2011. While that may be an aggressive move, Dominguez is major-league ready with the fielding and his bat should eventually come around. First, the team needs to figure out who plays where between Dominguez, Dan Uggla, Morrison, Sanchez and Chris Coghlan.

Catcher Kyle Skipworth will eventually be the answer to Florida's catching issue. While he can't step in and contribute in that capacity in 2011, he could make his debut in advance of a 2012 job. Skipworth will spend most of the year in Double-A as a 21-year-old and needs to improve his contact skills. The power is there, all Skipworth needs is to string together a few more hits.

Dan Uggla EXPECTATIONS FOR 2011

The Marlins expect to contend, which is partly why owner Jeffrey Loria fired Fredi Gonzalez. What he didn't realize, however, was that the talent of the Marlins was pretty much of a .500 team. The club should be better next year with full seasons from Stanton and Morrison, but need to upgrade its rotation and find a capable catcher to make some noise.

SUGGESTIONS FOR 2011

The Marlins shouldn't rush Matt Dominguez to the majors. He deserves to see his bat develop more in a less strenuous setting. However, the team should plan around Dominguez' eventual promotion, even if that's not until 2012. In addition, Logan Morrison is too much of a liability on defense to stick in left field.

The club should stick Coghlan in left field with the intention of leaving him there for the next few years, or until either Scott Cousins or Isaac Galloway knock the door down. Morrison shifts to first base, with Sanchez being dangled as trade bait for either a catcher, top relief pitcher or a starter that can give Florida a deep rotation.

Dan Uggla (pictured above, right) is entering the final year of his arbitration, and the club would do well to sign him for three- to four years, although Uggla may be looking for a longer deal than that. If the Marlins can convince Uggla to take three or four years, they can go into 2012's rebranding as the Miami Marlins with a new stadium and have Uggla as a name to sell fans on. If not, Coghlan can shift to second and free agency or internal promotions used for a left fielder. Florida could also opt to trade Uggla this offseason, put Coghlan at second and package Uggla and Sanchez for a major upgrade. The latter scenario is unlikely, plus Uggla is needed by Florida if they hope to win over the next several years.

2011 PREDICTION

Florida will hang around the wild card chase and could even put a scare into a few teams down the stretch, but will ultimately fall short.

Check out the rest of the R.I.P. reports here .

-- Evan Brunell

For more baseball news, rumors and analysis, follow @cbssportsmlb on Twitter or subscribe to the RSS feed .
Posted on: October 12, 2010 11:40 pm
Edited on: October 13, 2010 10:35 am
 

R.I.P. Marlins: New wave arrives

RIP As the sports world waits for the crowning of a champion, 22 other teams are busy preparing for spring training. What went wrong for these teams, and what does 2011 hold? MLB Facts and Rumors here at CBS Sports will be answering those questions through all of October. Now: the oft-maligned Florid Marlins.

The Marlins were slapped on the wrist in the offseason for not spending enough money on major-league payroll, then had their financials leaked. Meanwhile, owner Jeffrey Loria walked Fredi Gonzalez right out of town and into the grateful arms of the Braves, and the team missed .500 by one game.

WHAT WENT WRONG

The Marlins had a gaping hole at catcher for much of the season. John Baker was on the verge of establishing himself as a permanent starting catcher, but his 2010 season was cut off as soon as it had began and he underwent Tommy John surgery. That left Ronny Paulino, good only against lefties, to play full time before angering the organization after testing positive for PEDs. That left the team with Brett Hayes and Brad Davis down the stretch.

For the last two seasons, the Marlins have been waiting on Cameron Maybin to break out. They'll have to wait some more, as Maybin hit just .234/.302/.361 in 322 plate appearances and Cody Ross got the bulk of playing time in center before he was sent to the Giants. Florida remains high on the 23-year-old, but at some point has to start producing.

Ricky Nolasco has been far, far better than his ERAs of the last two seasons might indicated. Nolasco shacked up respective ERAs of 5.06 and 4.51 in 2009 and 2010, but his xFIP tells a far different story at 3.28 and 3.55, respectively. Luck and poor defense abandoned Nolasco, however, so he remains a tantalizing pitcher who just needs breaks to go his way.

WHAT WENT RIGHT

Mike Stanton The Marlins introduced some intriguing prospects to the majors, the most interesting of all being Mike Stanton (pictured, right). At just 20, Stanton bashed 22 home runs in 396 PA along with 22 doubles, good enough for a .259/.326/.507 line. All he has to do is cut down on strikeouts, raise the batting average and he will be a once-in-a-generation stud. As it is, he's already a once-in-a-generation power hitter.

He's joined by Logan Morrison, a natural first baseman who is playing out of position in left for the moment. In 287 PA, LoMo hit .283/.390/.447 and gives the Fish an incredible 3-4 combo for years. First baseman Gaby Sanchez also impressed, albeit at the advanced age of 27.

Josh Johnson was a dominating pitcher and proved Florida made the right call in signing him to a four-year deal just before the regular season. Johnson had a pedestrian 11-8 record thanks to bad luck, but was absolutely stellar in other facets of the game. His 2.30 ERA, 3.15 xFIP and 186 punchouts in 183 1/3 innings makes the 26-year-old one of the best pitchers in the game.

HELP ON THE WAY

Florida has graduated most of its better prospects already in Sanchez, Stanton, Morrison, Scott Cousins and Alex Sanabia. However, there are still two top prospects that could make an impact as soon as 2011.

Matt Dominguez, despite not playing above Double-A, is a candidate to start at third base for Florida as early as 2011. While that may be an aggressive move, Dominguez is major-league ready with the fielding and his bat should eventually come around. First, the team needs to figure out who plays where between Dominguez, Dan Uggla, Morrison, Sanchez and Chris Coghlan.

Catcher Kyle Skipworth will eventually be the answer to Florida's catching issue. While he can't step in and contribute in that capacity in 2011, he could make his debut in advance of a 2012 job. Skipworth will spend most of the year in Double-A as a 21-year-old and needs to improve his contact skills. The power is there, all Skipworth needs is to string together a few more hits.

Dan Uggla EXPECTATIONS FOR 2011

The Marlins expect to contend, which is partly why owner Jeffrey Loria fired Fredi Gonzalez. What he didn't realize, however, was that the talent of the Marlins was pretty much of a .500 team. The club should be better next year with full seasons from Stanton and Morrison, but need to upgrade its rotation and find a capable catcher to make some noise.

SUGGESTIONS FOR 2011

The Marlins shouldn't rush Matt Dominguez to the majors. He deserves to see his bat develop more in a less strenuous setting. However, the team should plan around Dominguez' eventual promotion, even if that's not until 2012. In addition, Logan Morrison is too much of a liability on defense to stick in left field.

The club should stick Coghlan in left field with the intention of leaving him there for the next few years, or until either Scott Cousins or Isaac Galloway knock the door down. Morrison shifts to first base, with Sanchez being dangled as trade bait for either a catcher, top relief pitcher or a starter that can give Florida a deep rotation.

Dan Uggla (pictured above, right) is entering the final year of his arbitration, and the club would do well to sign him for three- to four years, although Uggla may be looking for a longer deal than that. If the Marlins can convince Uggla to take three or four years, they can go into 2012's rebranding as the Miami Marlins with a new stadium and have Uggla as a name to sell fans on. If not, Coghlan can shift to second and free agency or internal promotions used for a left fielder. Florida could also opt to trade Uggla this offseason, put Coghlan at second and package Uggla and Sanchez for a major upgrade. The latter scenario is unlikely, plus Uggla is needed by Florida if they hope to win over the next several years.

2011 PREDICTION

Florida will hang around the wild card chase and could even put a scare into a few teams down the stretch, but will ultimately fall short.

Check out the rest of the R.I.P. reports here .

-- Evan Brunell

For more baseball news, rumors and analysis, follow @cbssportsmlb on Twitter or subscribe to the RSS feed .
Posted on: October 3, 2010 7:25 pm
 

Your 2010 AL & NL leaders

OK, it may not have been the most important thing about the Giants' 3-0 victory over the Padres, but Brian Wilson picked up his 48th save of the season, the most in baseball. He, oddly enough, broke a tie with the Padres' Heath Bell.

Wilson's strikeout of Will Venable ended the regular season and here are the rest of your season leaders in the batting and pitching triple crown categories, as well as the save leaders.

• AL batting average: Josh Hamilton .359
• NL batting average: Carlos Gonzalez .336

• AL home runs: Jose Bautista 54
• NL home runs: Albert Pujols 42

• AL RBI: Miguel Cabrera 126
• NL RBI: Albert Pujols 118

• AL wins: CC Sabathia 21
• NL wins: Roy Halladay 21

• AL ERA: Felix Hernandez 2.27
• NL ERA: Josh Johnson 2.30

• AL strikeouts; Jeff Weaver 233
• NL strikeouts: Tim Lincecum 231

• AL saves: Rafael Soriano 45
• NL saves: Brian Wilson 48

-- C. Trent Rosecrans

For more baseball news, rumors and analysis, follow @cbssportsmlb on Twitter or subscribe to the RSS feed .

Posted on: October 2, 2010 9:37 pm
Edited on: October 2, 2010 9:37 pm
 

Marlins skipper think he's earned job

Edwin Rodriguez
Edwin Rodriguez thinks his performance as interim manager of the Marlins should be good enough to get him the full-time gig.

"I would be very disappointed [not to get the job] because I think I presented my case," Rodriguez told the Palm Beach Post . "But then again, I don't know what they're looking for. Maybe there are more elements, more factors that they are taking into consideration."

Rodriguez was called up from Triple-A to take over after Fredi Gonzalez, the franchise's longest-serving manager, was fired June 23 because the front office felt the team should be better than its 34-36 record. Rodriguez has won at about the same clip (44-46), but while dealing with a lot of injuries, including the loss of ace Josh Johnson.

Rodriguez said he discussed his future with team president Larry Beinfest and general manager Mike Hill on Friday, but did not emerge with a clear idea of where he stands.

"They said they were pleased," Rodriguez said. "They said I'm in the mix. I'm a strong candidate. ... Right now, I don't know. They have that poker face. They said they're going to try to move fast, but they didn't indicate any time frame."

Owner Jeffrey Loria has said as recently as three weeks ago he is still interested in Bobby Valentine, though the Post is told Samson is strongly against that idea. Other possibilities include Tony Pena, Jim Fregosi and Ted Simmons.

The Marlins have been making a lot of noise about how their move to a new stadium in 2012 will vault them into a different level in the baseball stratosphere. My guess? They go for more of a "name" hire than Rodriguez. If he'd really turned the team around during his tenure and wowed Marlins fans, that would be one thing. But he looks more like a caretaker than the big splash Loria will want to make.

-- David Andriesen

For more baseball news, rumors and analysis, follow @cbssportsmlb on Twitter or subscribe to the RSS feed.

Category: MLB
Posted on: September 13, 2010 4:03 pm
 

Marlins' Johnson done for year

Josh Johnson
The Marlins have announced via their official Twitter feed that ace right-hander Josh Johnson will be shut down for the season.

It's not a surprising move, as Johnson hasn't pitched since September and was diagnosed with shoulder inflammation and a mild back strain. The Marlins are on the hook (get it? Marlins on the hook?) for $35.25 million for Johnson for the next three years, so they're right to protect their investment.

Johnson was arguably baseball's best pitcher in the first half of the season, going 9-3 with a 1.70 ERA. He still leads the NL with a 2.30 ERA, and will finish with a 2.30 ERA, 9.1 strikeouts per nine innings and 2.4 walks per nine.

-- David Andriesen

For more baseball news, rumors and analysis, follow @cbssportsmlb on Twitter or subscribe to the RSS feed .

Category: MLB
Posted on: September 8, 2010 6:28 pm
 

Marlins' Johnson may be shut down

Josh Johnson The remainder of Josh Johnson's 2010 is in doubt after he was diagnosed with shoulder inflammation and mild back strain.

According to the Sun Sentinel 's Juan C. Rodriguez (via Twitter ), the Marlins have yet to make a determination about the rest of his season.

The Marlins are 8 1/2 games out of the wild card and nine games out of the NL East lead with 24 games left, so they're more or less out of the question. And Johnson is the lone player owner Jeffrey Loria has decided to pay in an attempt to keep MLB off his back, so he'll want to keep that investment safe. Johnson is due $35.25 million the next three years -- no reason to take any chances.

-- C. Trent Rosecrans

For more baseball news, rumors and analysis, follow @cbssportsmlb on Twitter or subscribe to the RSS feed .

Category: MLB
 
 
 
 
The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com