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Tag:Jesus Montero
Posted on: October 22, 2010 2:22 pm
 

Taking a look at 2011 projections

Bill James, the leading sabermetrician of our time, has been hard at work on his 2011 Bill James Handbook , in which he releases projections for players.

As with all projections, James was way off on several players in his 2010 projections, but hit some on the nose and came close to many.

As James writes, it's inevitable that projections miss on some players. After all, who could have expected Jose Bautista to slam 54 home runs?

But for the most part, projections do come close to approximating what a player will do. So let's dive in and check out what Bill James thinks of several players.

Alvarez Pedro Alvarez (photo, right): The Pirates rookie got his major-league career off to a decent start in 2010, finishing at .256/.326/.461 with 16 HR. Meanwhile, Buster Posey makes Pittsburgh look silly for plucking Alvarez and Tampa Bay idiots for taking shortstop Tim Beckham. However, the Bucs may just end up loving Alvarez in 2011. James has him down for 27 home runs and 103 RBI, hitting .277/.352/.501. Sounds pretty good.

Jose Bautista : So, his his power surge for real or is there a reason Bautista never topped 16 home runs in a season before? James thinks it's for real and tabs Bautista for 34 blasts in 2011. Makes sense, as Bautista was hitting somewhat over his head and pitchers will have a better understanding of how to pitch him. He should finish at .251/.355/.509.

Josh Beckett: Boston will have plenty of reasons to be happy with its rotation next year. After Josh Beckett struggled to a 5.78 ERA in 21 starts, James feels Beckett will rebound to post a 3.86 ERA in 26 games. Couple that with John Lackey 's 33 starts of a 3.89 ERA and Daisuke Matsuzaka finding a way to overcome 73 walks for a 3.85 ERA, and you suddenly have a deep rotation that has Jon Lester up top and Clay Buchholz. An ace followed by four No. 2-3 starters? Yes please.

Adrian Beltre : Beltre re-established his value and much more in Boston, where he put Seattle and his failures therein behind him to hit .321/.365/.553. But was that just a contract-year push? Kind of. Beltre won't sniff being an MVP candidate again, as James says, but should still be worth every dollar afer hitting .283/.335/.477 in 2011.

Ryan Braun : When someone hits 33 home runs, scores 108 runs and drives in 114, that's got to be a pretty good MVP candidate. Except that Braun's 2011 projected totals may not be enough to overtake teammate Prince Fielder , who has 41 blasts projected to his name with 100 runs and 114 RBI. He's expected to hit .276/.396/.541 with Braun at .310/.372/.551.

Domonic Brown : One concern the Phillies have is how well Dominic Brown can step into the large shoes that will be vacated by Jayson Werth. Well, no problem: Brown's on pace to hit 26 homers and go .288/.346/.505. Next step for Philadelphia: finding a right-handed bat to break up Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Brown.

Halladay Roy Halladay (photo, right): A perfect game, postseason no-hitter and 2.44 ERA later and Halladay has nothing left to prove in the NL. James does see a step backwards, however, to the horrifying high of a 3.16 ERA. That ERA certainly figures to go under 3.00, but it's impossible to project anyone landing below a 3.00 ERA which is why Halladay lands at 3.16. He has compatriots Cole Hamels with a 3.45 projected ERA and Roy Oswalt at 3.38. Sounds like another NL East Division title is en route to Philly.

Derek Jeter : So, will Jeter rebound from his .270/.340/.370 showing in 2010 and be worth whatever ridiculous deal the Yankees give him in the offseason? Well, James does see a bounceback -- but his days as a legitimate All-Star are done. (Of course, he'll still be elected.) Jetes should end up at .295/.365/.410 as James guesses, not that far off from what Jeter put up in 2008.

Cliff Lee : Lee is going to make a lot of money in 2011. But interested teams may want to take a look at James' projected ERA and back away slightly. At 3.50, he would still be a good pitcher, but not great nor sublime as he has been thus far. He finished 2010 with a 3.18 ERA, 2009 with 3.22 and 2008 with 2.54, so it takes quite a leap to think Lee would go up to 3.50. A projected 49 walks will do that, even though he had an unimaginable 18 in 2010. (43 in 2009.)

Tim Lincecum : The Freak draws the honor of the lowest projected ERA, at an even 3.00 while striking out 233 batters. Lincecum will be looking to take back the Cy Young title from projected winner Roy Halladay, and so far it looks like Bill James is giving him the nod for 2011.

Jesus Montero : Do we have an early candidate for Rookie of the Year? James has Jesus Montero putting up huge numbers as a 21-year-old in the majors, banging 21 home runs and hitting .285/.348/.519. Hard to beat those numbers and power, especially at Montero's age. The only comparable is Michael Stanton.

David Ortiz : Well, even James himself can't know if Ortiz will get a third straight season off to a bad start, but regardless, Big Papi is expected to finish with 33 home runs and 112 RBI. That would be the most home runs hit since 2007 (he finished 2010 with 32). It would also be a high in RBI since 2007, along with batting average. If Ortiz can pull that line off, he'll be in line for a nice payday as a free agent.

Stanton Mike Stanton (photo, right): Stanton has already put baseball on notice as a 20-year-old. So what the heck is he to do in 2011 with a full season of playing time? That's easy -- 38 home runs. The only knock against Stanton will be that his plate discipline isn't advanced enough, leading to a .268/.335/.556 line. If he can eventually learn to take enough pitches and get the batting average over .280, he could be a mega-star.

Brian Wilson : Currently busy trying to propel the Giants to the World Series, Wilson at least can rest easy in the idea that James has him leading all closers in saves next season. He's expected to nail down 48 saves with a 3.04 ERA. The save total is exactly the same as what he ended up with in 2010, but the ERA was lower at 1.81. An xFIP of 2.99, however, backs up the projected 3.04 ERA.

-- Evan Brunell

For more baseball news, rumors and analysis, follow @cbssportsmlb on Twitter or subscribe to the RSS feed .
Posted on: July 26, 2010 11:05 am
Edited on: July 26, 2010 1:09 pm
 

Yankees making a bid for Soria


Joakim Soria New York already has the best team in baseball, are the Yankees looking to add the best nickname in baseball?

Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated says the Yankees have made a "big proposal" for Royals closer Joakim Soria, "the Mexicutioner."

It would make sense for the Yankees, Joba Chamberlain hasn't exactly performed so well as the bridge to Mariano Rivera that people are trying to push the old man out the door. Soria has 27 saves so far this season, had 30 last year and 42 the season before. He has a career 1.007 WHIP and a 2.12 ERA, including a 2.25 ERA this season, striking out more than a batter an inning.

What's even more appealing is that he's under team control through 2014, so he can't just become a free agent and sign with the Yankees. If he's a Yankee, we can just go ahead to 2015 without all that pointless waiting.

However, that's exactly why the Yankees need to make a "big" proposal for Soria. The Royals actually have some talent on the farm and could contend for a .500 record in 2012 or 2013 -- and wouldn't have to worry about a closer.

Soria makes a bargain $4 million next season with club options for 2012 ($6 million), 2013 ($8 million) and 2014 ($8.75 million). None of those types of numbers would make the Yankees blink -- even for a middle reliever.

However, besides Jesus Montero, New York doesn't have impact players in their farm system. Catcher Austin Romine would be a good get for the Royals, but hardly the value the team needs for Soria. The Yankees were said to be dangling Ivan Nova, Zach McAllister and possibly Chamberlain for Dan Haren. A similar package may be enough to pry Soria from the Royals and make the Yankees even more of a favorite than they are today.

UPDATE: In an online chat, ESPN's Jayson Stark says the Yankees have at least discussed the possibility of sending Montero to Kansas City for Soria, which may be the only way this deal makes sense for the Royals -- unless the Yankees bring the Mets in to send Dayton Moore's crush, Jeff Francoeur,  to KC, which may not make baseball sense, but when has that stopped Moore? CoughAnkielCoughKendallCough

-- C. Trent Rosecrans

For more baseball news, rumors and analysis, follow @cbssportsmlb on Twitter.



Posted on: July 23, 2010 7:04 pm
Edited on: October 19, 2010 11:27 am
 

Report: Yankees close to landing Haren


Dan Haren The Yankees may add to their rotation after all, as the team is on the verge of landing Dan Haren, FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi report .

According to the report, the Diamondbacks are telling teams they are "in advanced negotiations with one club," citing major-league sources.

Among other interested teams based on several reports include the Dodgers, Tigers, Twins, Phillies and Cardinals.

Although the Yankees were dangling catching prospect Jesus Montero along with second baseman David Adams and right-hander Zach McAllister for the Mariners' Cliff Lee. The Diamondbacks would likely be looking for more pitching and it's unlikely Montero is available.

Haren is under contract through 2012 plus a club option for 2013, so it's not as if the team needs to get rid of him right now. However, the Diamondbacks are looking to slash payroll and Haren will make $12.75 million in each of the next two seasons and the team option for 2013 is for $15.5 million with a $3.5 million buyout.

UPDATE: Ed Price of FanHouse reports the Cardinals are out of the running for Haren, and FanHouse's Frankie Piliere tweets the Yankees' Ivan Nova is the key piece for the Diamondbacks in a trade with New York.

-- C. Trent Rosecrans

For more baseball news, rumors and analysis, follow @cbssportsmlb on Twitter.




Posted on: July 19, 2010 1:21 pm
Edited on: July 19, 2010 4:16 pm
 

Trade deadline buyer: New York Yankees

As the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline looms, the CBS Facts & Rumors team will look at the biggest players leading up to the deadline. This week we'll look at the teams who will be talked about the most; next week will be the players who might be moved.

Every transaction talk, be it trades or free agents, seems to start with the Yankees and this time is no different.

Brian Cashman Record: 58-33, three games ahead of the Rays and 6 1/2 in front of the Red Sox.
GM: Brian Cashman
Expectations: Anything short of another World Series title is failure, plain and simple.
Payroll status: Not that it matters, the Yankees had an opening day payroll of more than $213 million and already have more than $144 million on the books for 2011.

What they need

Starting pitcher: With Andy Pettitte on the disabled list and A.J. Burnett's recent hissy fit, the Yankees suddenly look to need at least one starter. Until now, the opening day rotation of CC Sabathia, Pettitte, Burnett, Javier Vazquez and Phil Hughes had started all but two of their games. That could be matched this week alone. The team may also be wary of letting Hughes' innings add up through a pennant race and the playoffs. Sergio Mitre is scheduled to start in Pettitte's place, but until now, he's been more successful as a reliever than a starter.

Bullpen help: Starting pitching isn't the only pitching concern the Yankees have as Joba Chamberlain's days as the bridge to Mariano Rivera may be numbered, and it's not as if Chan Ho Park is going to step up and replace him.

Damaso Marte was placed on the disabled list this weekend with Boone Logan called up as the team's only left-handed reliever.

Big bat: Marcus Thames has been better than expected as the Yankees designated hitter, hitting .287/.396/.437 with three homers and 13 RBI in 87 at-bats, but he's hardly a difference-maker. This spot -- especially if Jorge Posada is healthy enough not to need a DH safety net -- could be upgraded, especially if that upgrade could be a spot starter in the outfield.

Bench help: After the regulars, the Yankees feature the likes of Ramiro Pena and Colin Curtis. The team could certainly upgrade its depth in both the infield and the outfield.

Who may fit

Ted Lilly Starting pitcher: Cliff Lee would have been a great fit, but he's gone. Lee was the marquee name available and there's a decided step down after the newest Texas Ranger. Other starters out there are Ted Lilly, Jake Westbrook, Brett Myers, Roy Oswalt, Dan Haren and maybe even someone like Brian Bannister.

Reliever: There are stop-gap attempts like David Aardsma and Leo Nunez, or the Yankees could go for the kill with someone like Royals closer Joakim Soria. Soria is under club control until 2014, so it would take more than just cash, but also top-flight prospects to get the Royals closer and team him with Rivera to make a formidable back of the bullpen.

Other, less expensive, fits could be either of the Blue Jays pair of relievers, Scott Downs or Jason Frasor.

Bat: Again, going for the kill would be Adam Dunn. Dunn in new Yankee Stadium would be a marriage made in heaven. Dunn doesn't want to DH and he doesn't really have any other value, but he would flourish both in the American League and in pinstripes. Still, the Yankees may not want to give up too much for a player they can just buy in the offseason.

If the Yankees can find a top-end starter, they could send Vazquez to Philadelphia for Jayson Werth. David DeJesus would upgrade the outfield, as well.

Bench help:
Wes Helms and Ty Wigginton are corner possibilities and Wigginton can play second, as well. Xavier Nady and Austin Kearns are possible outfield bats that may not be big, but could work for the Yankees.

Trade chips

Jesus Montero Catching prospect Jesus Montero was reportedly only available for Lee, however the almighty dollar is always available. Any team looking to clear cash off the bottom line will talk to the Yankees, who could send middling prospects loaded up with money sacks to any team that's interested. And there are always teams interested in that kind of prospect.

Right-hander Zach McAllister is 7-6 with a 4.82 ERA in 18 starts at Triple-A. He doesn't have dominant stuff, but has good control and projects as a back of the rotation-type pitcher.

Right-hander Ivan Nova, 23, has better stats than McAllister (7-2, 3.21, 78 strikeouts in 103 2/3 innings) and has an impressive fastball. Nova has impressive talent, but has also struggled with consistency as a pro. This season is his best yet, and there's a question as to whether he's reached his ceiling. Still, he's got enough talent to be intriguing to other teams.

Mark Melancon has long been bantered about as the replacement for Rivera when Mo decides to turn his sights to Cooperstown, but Melancon has yet to live up to that hype. He could be one of those players that need a change in scenery to live up to his potential, and there's enough potential for other teams to take a chance on him.

Other possibilities include SS Eduardo Nunez and 2B David Adams, who was one of the other guys mentioned in the Lee trade.

Predictions: The Yankees will add a reliever and a starter -- possibly Lilly and the lefty Downs. Other than that, the team may think it doesn't have to do too much to keep ahead of the Rays and Red Sox.

-- C. Trent Rosecrans

For more baseball news, rumors and analysis, follow @cbssportsmlb on Twitter.


 
 
 
 
The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com