Tag:Super Bowl XLV
Posted on: January 23, 2011 10:13 pm
Edited on: January 23, 2011 11:12 pm
 

Super Bowl 2011 line: Packers -2.5 over Steelers

Posted by Will Brinson

Super Bowl XLV is a heavyweight monster of matchup -- the NFC champ Packers square off against the Steelers (eight-time AFC champions) -- and the line is a good reflection of just that, with the Packers favored 2.5 points over the Steelers.

It's a bit surprising to see a No. 6 seed as the favorite in the Super Bowl, but recent history of wild cards storming the final game should tell us enough not to overlook the Packers in this contest. Also: they're white-hot, and that's precisely why they ended up as the favorites in this game, despite an uneven showing against the Bears.

Worth noting is that the Hilton and Glantz-Culver opened the line as Packers -2, which means that you're looking at, give or take a half point, a rare case where the Super Bowl line is under a field goal. (Both lines have since moved to Packers -2.5; their over has also jumped quickly, showcasing the public's love with the over.) You're also looking at a case of bettors having a "love affair" with the Packers -- they're the quintessential "peak at the right moment" team that's rolling into the Super Bowl, even if it's against a Steelers team that features a quarterback who just wins Super Bowls.

Interestingly, the over/under for the game is 45.5, which is pretty high for two teams that have pretty strong defenses. That's probably a reflection of two things. One, the Steelers and Packers are pretty heavy on the pass (despite the stereotype that pervades Pittsburgh football), and two, the Aaron Rodgers/Ben Roethlisberger combo just begs for some broken plays on defense that result in long touchdowns.

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