Tag:Alabama
Posted on: November 26, 2011 7:22 pm
 

QUICK HITS: No. 2 Alabama 42, Auburn 14

Posted by Jerry Hinnen



ALABAMA WON: 
Barring the beatdown to end all beatdowns by Oklahoma State against Oklahoma next week and a stunning change-of-heart from the poll voters, the Crimson Tide strangled the life out of the Auburn offense to punch their ticket to the BCS title game. The Tigers collected just 30 yards of offense through three quarters and failed to score any offensive points--their touchdowns came via a fumble recovery in the end zone and an 83-yard Onterio McCalebb kickoff return. AJ McCarron hit 14-of-18 for three touchdowns in a huge first half and Trent Richardson finished with 203 yards in a Heisman-quality performance.

WHY ALABAMA WON: Alabama's front seven and their rush defense is awfully, awfully good--No. 1 in the nation for a reason, mostly a reason like "held Auburn to 78 rushing yards, and less than 25 before two late garbage-time drives." But their pass defense? That's even better: Clint Moseley completed 11 of his 18 passes, but for just 3.4 yards an attempt and with just one completion beyond the line-of-scrimmage, a 15-yard fourth-quarter pass to Phillip Lutzenkirchen. When Auburn did finally come out of their shell with three deep passes in the third quarter, Dee Milliner responded by promptly picking off Moseley for a game-clinching pick-six.

Again: the front seven is good. Milliner, Dre Kirkpatrick, Mark Barron, Robert Lester, DeQuan Menzie and the rest of the Tide secondary is better. 

WHEN ALABAMA WON: The 27-14 lead Alabama took into the fourth quarter was probably safe given Auburn's offensive struggles. The 35-14 lead given by Milliner's pick-six was entirely insurmountable. 

WHAT ALABAMA WON: We mentioned that whole "99 percent chance of a BCS title opportunity," right? But this being the Iron Bowl, a third win over Auburn in four years ain't too shabby a consolation prize all by itself ... if it's a "consolation prize" at all.

WHAT AUBURN LOST: Any belief this wasn't the worst Auburn season in Gene Chizik's three years. His 2009 team also finished 7-5 but finished their season with a stirring everything-on-the-field battle at home against a Tide team that would go on to win a national title. Today's bludgeoning -- one of four in a series against the Tigers' four biggest annual rivals -- was a far cry from that effort and cements the feeling that Chizik may look towards a shakeup on his coaching staff.

Posted on: November 26, 2011 4:18 pm
 

QUICK HITS: Kentucky 10, Tennessee 7

Posted by Jerry Hinnen

KENTUCKY WON: 
In and of itself, not a big deal. But they won against Tennessee. Kentucky never beats Tennessee. They hadn't done it in 26 years. They'd had a dozen golden opportunities over the years and never pulled it off. Apparently, what they needed was to plug in a wide receiver at quarterback and let him operate out of the Wildcat nearly the entire game; Matt Roark ran for 152 yards and tailback CoShik Williams added 68 yards and the one second-half touchdown the Wildcats would need. The much-maligned Kentucky defense held Tyler Bray below a 50 percent completion rate and picked him off twice -- once on the Vols' 4th-and-17 final desperate play -- and of course the Tennessee running game added nothing. Result? Wildcats 10, Vols 7. Yes, Virginia, Kentucky can beat Tennessee.

WHY KENTUCKY WON: As much attention as Joker Phillips' decision to go to Roark at quarterback and completely forsake the terrible Wildcat passing game will get -- Kentucky only attempted 6 passes, completing four of them for all of 15 yards -- this game was ultimately about how flat-out awful the Volunteer offense became over the second half of this season. Shooting blanks against Alabama or LSU or with Justin Worley at the helm is one thing; with Bray under center and facing the nation's 64th-ranked defense, the Vols should have been able to put at least a few points on the board, right? 

Aside from one 54-yard bomb from Bray to Raijon Neal that gave Tennessee a brief glimmer of second-half hope: entirely wrong. Bray averaged a just-better-than-terrible 5.7 yards an attempt, thanks half in part to some scattershot throws and half due to the Vol receivers failing repeatedly to get open. As always, the Tennessee running game did nothing, netting 61 yards on 24 carries. And with the game on the line in the fourth quarter, the Vol line could not keep Kentucky's defensive line off of Bray--thus the game coming down to "4th-and-17."

Derek Dooley is about to have a flamethrower taken to him by Vol fans and the Knoxville media, not that it will keep him from a third year at the helm. But his inability to find any way to get the Tennessee offense moving at all -- especially when contrasted with Phillips's ingenuity with Roark -- means some of that heat is justified.

WHEN TENNESSEE LOST: When Taiedo Smith picked off Bray on that 4th-and-17 from Tennessee's 31. With fewer than 90 seconds left and no Vol timeouts remaining, all that was left was the Wildcat victory formation.

WHAT KENTUCKY WON: I think they'll be happy with snapping the nation's longest annual series losing streak, don't you?

WHAT TENNESSEE LOST: Not only did the loss end the nation's longest annual series winning streak, not only will it crank up the heat on Dooley's seat to the hottest levels in the SEC (and maybe the nation), but this loss drops Tennessee to 5-7 overall--and will leave the Vols home for bowl season, depriving them not only of the prestige and payout but the extra practice that Dooley's young team desperately needs. There's no way to spin this as anything less than a total disaster for the Vols and their head coach. 

Posted on: November 25, 2011 6:28 pm
 

QUICK HITS: No. 1 LSU 41, No. 3 Arkansas 17

Posted by Jerry Hinnen



LSU WON: 
The Tigers had to work harder than they have against any 2011 opponent other than Alabama -- a 14-0 second quarter deficit was more than three times larger than the previous largest deficit faced by LSU this year -- but in the end, Arkansas fell by the wayside just like the first 11 teams on LSU's schedule. LSU pounded on the run-averse Arkansas front for 286 bruising rushing yards, 102 of them by the impressive Kenny Hilliard, and held Tyler Wilson to just 207 passing yards with an interception. Tyrann Mathieu put a huge stamp on the game, returning a punt 92 yards to erase the last of that early deficit, forcing one fumble and recovering another.

WHY LSU WON: The biggest factor in the win was arguably the overpowering nature of the Bayou Bengal ground game; behind Hilliard, Michael Ford, Spencer Ware, Jordan Jefferson and another devastating performance from the LSU offensive line, the second half entirely belonged to the Tiger running game. Once LSU got the ball back in the fourth quarter up 21-17, they challenged Arkansas's front seven to match them physically or get run out of Tiger Stadium ... and the Hogs simply couldn't meet that challenge.

But that overlooks the fact that the somehow still underappreciated LSU defense allowed a 62-yard Hog touchdown drive on the visitors' third possession of the game ... and then held the SEC's best offense to zero touchdowns and just three points the remainder of the game. Wilson was sacked five times, the Hogs gained just 254 yards for the game, and only one of their final seven possessions lasted more than four plays. The Hog offensive line had no answer for the LSU front or John Chavis's blitzes (Barkevious Mingo was a particular terror), and the vaunted Hog receivers had precious little success against Mathieu, the amazing Morris Claiborne, and the rest of the LSU secondary. The LSU running game was incredible. Given the competition, LSU's defense might have been even better than that.

WHEN LSU WON: When Ware carried in from seven yards out to cap a nine-play touchdown drive -- eight of them runs -- with 11:04 to play in the game, the score was still only 31-17. But the way those eight runs had seemed to physically overwhelm the Arkansas defense, no one watching believed the game was anything but decided.

WHAT LSU WON: A perfect regular season, an outright SEC West title and trip to Atlanta, a third win over a top-5 opponent, and -- given results in other Bedlam-based games -- possibly a BCS title game berth already. But that's it.

WHAT ARKANSAS LOST: Just a second game this year, but when you lose your SEC and national title dreams in that one fell swoop, that's a lot to lose all the same.

THAT WAS CRAZY: Behold the Mathieu punt return in all its glory:

Posted on: November 25, 2011 3:06 pm
 

The Saturday Meal Plan: Week 13

Posted by Tom Fornelli

The Saturday Meal Plan is a helpful guide put together for you to maximize the results of your college football diet.  Just enough to leave you feeling full, but not so much you spend your entire Sunday in the bathroom.

So you're been eating turkey and Thanksgiving leftovers for two days now, you've still got an entire Saturday of football to get through. And really, is there any better way to work off all the weight you've gained over the holiday than by sitting on a couch watching football?

Of course not.

So strap yourselves in and prepare for one of the last Saturdays you'll have this season.

BREAKFAST

#9 Oklahoma vs. Iowa State - FX 12pm ET

Who'd have known this game could hold so much intrigue? Iowa State is coming off a huge win of Oklahoma State and Oklahoma is coming off a loss to Baylor. Is it possible that Oklahoma could get upset two weeks in a row, or that Iowa State could pull off consecutive upsets? Your first reaction is to probably think not, but then again, how many of us thought Iowa State would beat Oklahoma State last week? - Tom Fornelli

#23 Georgia Tech vs. #13 Georgia - ESPN 12pm ET

The Jackets simply can't ask for a better week to play the Dawgs. Todd Grantham only has a week to prepare his defense for the Tech triple-option; how focused that defense will be with the SEC Championship on deck is entirely debatable; and we're guessing Tech didn't spend all of their nine days between their Nov. 10 game vs. Virginia Tech and last Saturday's vs. Duke prepping for the Devils. But against Jarvis Jones and a Bulldog defense ranked second in the nation in rush defense, will any of that matter? - Jerry Hinnen

#15 Michigan vs. Ohio State - ABC 12pm ET

This would appear to be a prime opportunity for Michigan to exorcise the demons of Jim Tressel's dominance; for one, Tressel's not even there anymore, and more importantly, the Wolverines are probably better than the Buckeyes. Of course, "better" doesn't always equal "victorious" in a sport as maniacally unpredictable as college football, but we're sure Denard Robinson and his (intermittently) high-powered offense are just as eager to take this matchup off paper and onto the gridiron as OSU is. - Adam Jacobi

UConn vs. Rutgers - ESPN2 12pm ET

The schedule has worked out well for Rutgers to put themselves in a position to win a share of the Big East title for the first time in school history.  But accomplishing that feat still requires one more win to finish at 5-2 in league play.  Paul Pasqualoni's Connecticut squad is out of the hunt for a BCS bowl berth, but with Rutgers and Cincinnati left on the schedule they have two great opportunities to spoil someone else's fun. This game has been played close the last several years, and Connecticut's players will be looking for revenge after giving up a close 27-24 game to the Scarlet Knights a year ago.  Rutgers running back Jawan Jamison has emerged as the star in the offensive backfield in the second half of the season, and if he can get going early it should open up the defense for wide receiver Mohamed Sanu to pick on a struggling Huskies secondary. - Chip Patterson

LUNCH

#24 Auburn vs. #2 Alabama - CBS 3:30pm ET

If this game was being played on paper -- or a neutral venue -- there wouldn't be much intrigue to it. Alabama has the more efficient offense, has the far superior defense, and is favored by three full touchdowns in a series that (for all the "throw out the records" talk) rarely produces upsets. But the game's being played in Auburn's Jordan-Hare Stadium, where the Tigers nearly ruined the Tide's national championship hopes two seasons ago and where AJ McCarron may not be the steady quarterback he's been at home. So don't send the Tide to New Orleans just yet. - JH 

Virginia vs. #5 Virginia Tech - ABC/ESPN2 3:30pm ET

Virginia Tech's move to the ACC received some significant help from Virginia during the ACC's expansion in 2004.  The Hokies have repaid their Commonwealth brothers by winning four of six division titles and beating the Cavaliers every season since joining the conference.  Second-year head coach Mike London has Virginia playing their best football at the right time, winning six of their last seven contests.  There aren't a lot of stars on the roster, but they play smash-mouth football and have been incredibly opportunistic.  Virginia Tech must avoid turning the ball over and try to jump out to an early lead to force Virginia quarterback Michael Rocco to move the ball through the air.  Logan Thomas and David Wilson will be the key to the Hokies' ground game, as ball control will be necessary for either team to clinch the ACC Coastal Division and a berth to the ACC Championship Game. - CP

#16 Wisconsin vs. #19 Penn State - ESPN 3:30pm ET

This one's for half the Big Ten Tostitos, folks. Penn State's basically never been taken seriously as a division contender, yet here it is one win away from a trip to Indianapolis. Meanwhile, Wisconsin gets to continue its path to redemption if it wins here--and then there's just a rematch with MSU with the Rose Bowl on the line. It's a great offense vs. a great defense, and a lousy offense vs. a lousy defense. Compelling viewing all around. By the way, I think I owe Brent Musberger AND Frito-Lay royalties for that opening line. A rare tandem, that. - AJ

#10 Oregon vs. Oregon State - ABC/ESPN2 3:30pm ET

This isn't a rivalry, this is Civil War. The Ducks are looking to close out the Pac-12 regular season as North champions and host the first ever conference title game so who better to do so against than their rival up the highway? The Beavers are banged up but should put up a fight with quarterback Sean Mannion likely throwing the ball all over. - Bryan Fischer

DINNER

Florida vs. Florida State - ESPN2 7pm ET

The Gators and 'Noles are both living in a Sunshine State of Disappointment at the moment, but one team will get to head off to a bowl game with some measure of solace. Don't expect a lot of offensive fireworks -- both teams' offenses have lagged behind their defenses this year, with FSU's 14-13 home loss to Virginia last week the latest evidence -- but 6-5 Gator record or not, the atmosphere at Florida Field should still be plenty hostile and relations between the teams still plenty frosty. - JH

#12 South Carolina vs. #17 Clemson - ESPN 7:45pm ET

Clemson enters the annual rivalry reeling after three frustrating performances that resulted in road losses to Georgia Tech and NC State. The Tigers have clinched a berth to the ACC Championship Game, but need to get a strong performance to get back on track. The Gamecocks on the other hand are just starting to put the pieces back together after a frustrating stretch of injuries and dismissals have revamped the offense. Connor Shaw had one of his best games of the season against Furman, but it was also Furman. The matchup to watch here will be South Carolina's dominating - but slightly banged up - defense against Tajh Boyd and the Clemson offense. The Tigers get star freshman Sammy Watkins back, after missing the NC State loss with a shoulder injury, but will it be enough to make up for a sputtering unit that was exposed by the Wolfpack in the 37-13 loss? - CP

#6 Stanford vs. #22 Notre Dame - ABC 8pm ET

This will be Andrew Luck's final chance to impress Heisman voters this season, and it could be his final game in Palo Alto. Luck will also be facing a team that he's had some trouble with, as in his two games against Notre Dame, Luck has thrown one touchdown and two interceptions. Though Stanford is also 2-0 in both of those games.  As for the Irish, a win over Stanford in Palo Alto to finish the regular season would be an excellent way to cap a season that started off poorly but has redeemed itself a bit since. - TF

LATE NIGHT SNACK

USC vs. UCLA - Fox Sports 10pm ET

USC returns to the Coliseum after their big upset win over Oregon and can end their season with a big win over crosstown rival UCLA. This might be the last game in the cardinal and gold for quarterback Matt Barkley and he'll want nothing more than to have a great game to secure a 10-win year despite sanctions. The Bruins are not only playing to beat the Trojans but also for a spot in the Pac-12 championship game and a South division title. - BF 
Posted on: November 25, 2011 11:08 am
 

PODCAST: Thanksgiving CFB Leftovers

Posted by Jerry Hinnen

In the spirit of a laden Thanksgiving dinner table, this edition of the CBSSports.com College Football Podcast has a little of everything. Adam Aizer and Eye on CFB blogger Jerry Hinnen (natch) talk through 1. the futures of Texas and Texas A&M in the wake of Thursday night's thriller 2. Andrew Luck and Justin Blackmon's impending departures for the draft 3. if a rematch is what college football fans really want 4. whether Houston is legit 5. what the teams on the bottom rung of the SEC ladder can expect going forward 6. what national rivalries have caught our attention 7. our annual Thanksgiving reminder that college football crushes the pro version and some quick picks for Saturday's games to wrap it all up.

Gorge yourself by clicking the player below, downloading the mp3, or popping out the podcast player in a separate window.

Remember, all of the CBSSports.com College Football Podcasts can be downloaded for FREE from the iTunes Store.

Posted on: November 24, 2011 12:52 pm
 

Man vs. Woman vs. Machine: Week 13


Posted by Tom Fornelli


Man vs. Woman vs. Machine is a feature that runs every Thursday afternoon. It is here that Tom Fornelli fights against the rising tide of female empowerment and technology to ensure that men everywhere can at least claim that college football is still theirs. He does this by picking a set of games against the spread against his girlfriend, Lynn, and his Playstation 3.

It's Thanksgiving, and if you were to wonder what I'm thankful for this time of year I'd tell you that I'm thankful I'm only a few games behind Woman in this contest and that I still have two weeks to catch her. Of course, I'd be a lot more grateful if I was beating her already at this point and just had to hold her off, but knowing what we don't have makes us more thankful for what we do have, I guess.

Enjoy your turkey, folks, and Happy Thanksgiving. 

LSU (-13 1/2) vs. Arkansas - Friday, 2:30pm (All times Eastern)

Man - I really don't like picking against Les Miles because it seldom works out for me, and although I don't really think Arkansas is going to win this game, it's still a rivalry game and this is still the best offense LSU has faced since Oregon and it hasn't had an entire offseason to prepare for it. So I think the Hogs can keep things close enough. Pick: Arkansas

Woman - "Today, I offer my special Thanksgiving picks. This first one's easy. I give thanks for another LSU magical mystery tour season led by my guru  favorite coach, Les Miles. But while the Tigers will confound Arkansas with relentless D and some superfantasmalicious trick plays, I'm taking a knee on this spread." Pick: Arkansas

Machine - According to the Machine, we all get really close to total BCS chaos but Les Miles and LSU are able to overcome a 10-point deficit in the fourth quarter to beat Arkansas 27-24. Pick: Arkansas 

Georgia Tech vs. Georgia (-6 1/2) - Saturday, 12pm

Man - The Bulldogs have been playing their best football of the season over the last month, and though things were a bit close against Kentucky last week I think that had a lot more to do with Georgia not taking the Wildcats all that seriously. Which isn't going to happen with their rival. Pick: Georgia

Woman - "I'm giving thanks for an in-state rivalry that features the nation's number two team in rushing offense versus the nation's number two team in rushing defense. With a 56% third down success rate, home field advantage and points, the scales tip to the Yellow Jackets." Pick: Georgia Tech

Machine - Georgia keeps on rolling as it prepares for the SEC Championship, as Aaron Murray throws for 4 touchdowns and the Dawgs pick up a pretty easy 31-20 win. Pick: Georgia

Michigan (-8 1/2) vs. Ohio State - Saturday, 12pm

Man - Yes, Michigan fans, your long nightmare is going to come to an end on Saturday. You are finally going to see your Wolverines beat the Buckeyes, and I don't think it's going to be all that close come the fourth quarter. Pick: Michigan

Woman - "Grateful this season is nearly over for OSU. Stacked up against Denard Robinson on the road, and still reeling from personnel losses and NCAA sanctions, I think the Buckeyes will be content to stagger across the finish line and call it a year." Pick: Michigan

Machine - This may be the best chance that Michigan has had to beat Ohio State in years, but The Machine want the Wolverines to know that there's always next year. Ohio State wins 27-20. Pick: Ohio State

Virginia vs. Virginia Tech (-5 1/2) - Saturday, 3:30pm

Man - I've actually picked Virginia to win this game outright. Virginia Tech hasn't beaten anybody of consequence this season, and it hasn't blown anybody out aside from Appalachian State. I mean, this Hokies team beat Duke 14-10 earlier this season, and Duke missed three field goals in that game. Sometimes the BCS corrects itself, and this will be one of those occasions. Pick: Virginia

Woman - "I am thankful I was able to suppress the gag reflex when the BCS ranked Virginia Tech at number five. I love the Hokies but don't think they've played a schedule worthy of that spot and am betting on a steady Virginia offensive line to put them back where they belong. Wahoowa!" Pick: Virginia 

Machine - It's been a nice season Virginia, but you're not quite there yet. Virginia Tech wins 34-13. Pick: Virginia Tech

Auburn vs. Alabama (-20 1/2) - Saturday, 3:30pm

Man - I really don't see Auburn knocking off the Tide for a second year in a row, and I don't have a lot of confidence in this Auburn offense to put up many points against this Alabama defense. That being said, this is still one of the greatest rivalries in the sport, and a three-touchdown spread is an awful lot of points to give up between these two teams. Pick: Auburn

Woman - "I really can't even talk about what I'm thankful for here due to, like they say, an ongoing investigation. So, let's look at what we know. Alabama is a national championship contender. Meanwhile, Auburn lost nearly all its players last year and is starting over. No doubt, they'll soon mature into fierce competitors but in the meantime, I located footage of the Tigers' latest practice. Not pretty." Pick: Alabama 

Machine - The Machine seems to think that Trent Richardson could put the finishing touches on a possible Heisman Trophy, as he rushes for 214 yards and 3 touchdowns and the Tide take the state of Alabama back, winning 31-13. Pick: Auburn

Wisconsin (-14 1/2) vs. Penn State - Saturday, 3:30pm

Man - Wisconsin has been the best team in the Big Ten all season, with its only two losses coming via prayers at the end of consecutive games. That's not going to happen in Madison, and I don't see the Penn State offense as being capable of exploiting the weaknesses in the Wisconsin defense. Meanwhile, Wisconsin has a couple different ways to beat you on offense, and their names are Montee Ball and Russell Wilson. Pick: Wisconsin

Woman - "I'm grateful for an eighty-something grandma who tried Pop Rocks for the first time, giving me an excuse not to write anything more about the Big Ten." Pick: Wisconsin

Machine - Penn State doesn't do much to keep Wisconsin from heading to Indianapolis, as the Badgers steamroll the Nittany Lions 38-17. Pick: Wisconsin

Baylor (-12 1/2) vs. Texas Tech - Saturday, 7pm

Man - This is going to be a fun, exciting game in which we see both teams go back and forth down the field putting up points. So while I'm going to give the edge to Robert Griffin in this matchup, the Baylor defense hasn't shown me anything this season that would make me want to give up nearly two touchdowns. Pick: Texas Tech

Woman - "I'm thankful I get to see Robert Griffin play again, this time on the grand stage at Jerry's World. The Raiders are playing for bowl eligibility (which they haven't missed since 1993), and neither of these teams have any defense to speak of, so plan on lots of action. Baylor wins but just by ten." Pick: Texas Tech

Machine - Baylor rides the momentum from last weekend all the way to Arlington and knocks off Texas Tech 45-31. Pick: Baylor

South Carolina (-4 1/2) vs. Clemson - Saturday, 7:45pm

Man - Last week was exactly the kind of thing you'd expect Clemson to do. It was the Clemsoning we'd been waiting for all season, and the next logical step in a Clemsoning is for the Tigers to come back the next week and play like nothing ever happened. Pick: Clemson

Woman - "Giving thanks I don't have to think about, much less pick, either of these teams again after this week. I'm going to roll the dice and guess Clemson plays a game that masks the stench of their atrocious loss to North Carolina State last week." Pick: Clemson

Machine - It's not the prettiest game every played, but the Machine sees South Carolina managing to eek this one out. Gamecocks hold on to keep control of the Palmetto State, beating Clemson 21-16. Pick: South Carolina

Stanford (-6 1/2) vs. Notre Dame - Saturday, 8pm

Man - After covering every spread for over a year, Stanford has gone 0-2 against the number the last two weeks. So am I going to go against the Cardinal this week? No, because, you see, this is a Notre Dame spread and Notre Dame spreads never resemble reality. Pick: Stanford

Woman - "Stanford loses one game and suddenly it's not even a one-touchdown favorite at home against Notre Dame. Really? I'm grateful for how much this spread made me laugh." Pick: Stanford

Machine - Andrew Luck and the Stanford Machine get it rolling once again, taking care of Notre Dame 38-17. Pick: Stanford

USC (-14 1/2) vs. UCLA - Saturday, 10pm

Man - USC can't go to the Pac-12 Championship this year, so for the Trojans the next best thing would be to keep crosstown rival UCLA from being able to take advantage of it. Oh, and there's also the fact that USC is just a much better team than UCLA is, so rivalry or not, the Trojans will put an end to this one early. Pick: USC

Woman - "USC is going to tattoo the Bruins, so let me just give thanks for a great short video about toys that escape a dreary office prison to the wondrous world where this game will be played on Saturday. Happy Thanksgiving, everyone." Pick: USC

Machine - Los Angeles still belongs to the Trojans, as USC knocks off UCLA 42-21. Pick: USC

Standings

Season Record (Last Week)

1. Woman 69-56 (4-6)
2. Man 67-58 (4-6)
3. Machine 64-61 (3-7)
Posted on: November 22, 2011 5:46 pm
 

Keys to the game: Alabama at Auburn

Posted by Jerry Hinnen

ALABAMA WILL WIN IF:
they shut down Michael Dyer and the rest of the Auburn running game. Because the hard truth for the Tigers is that there's little-to-no reason to believe Clint Moseley and the Tiger passing game are going to get anything going against the Tide. Though Moseley has been a slight improvement on Barrett Trotter, neither QB has had much success against any SEC opponent not named Ole Miss--over those six games, Auburn's averaged just 131 yards per-game and 5.8 per attempt, and a 5-to-10 touchdown-to-interception ratio. And unfortunately for the Tigers, the Tide are as good-if-not-better than any of the teams they've faced yet, ranking No. 1 in the FBS in both straight pass defense and opponent's QB rating.

Dyer and the Tiger running game will pose a much more formidable challenge; the speedy Onterio McCalebb may be particularly troubling for the Tide, given their struggle to hold the edge against the option looks of LSU and even Georgia Southern. But if the Tide do keep the Auburn ground game in check, it's hard to see how the Tigers ever more the ball enough to pull out the win.

AUBURN WILL WIN IF: they get some help from AJ McCarron. In our "Keys to the Game" prior to the Tigers' contest against Georgia, we noted that Auburn had been oustanding vs. teams with questionable quarterbacking and terrible vs. teams with anyone decent under center. Aaron Murray? He was far better than decent (14-of-18, 12.4 YPA, 4 TDs) and Auburn was naturally shelled to the tune of 45 points and 528 total yards. Can McCarron reprise anything like Murray's domination? Certain early-season performances suggest he can, but the redshirt sophomore has been noticeably less effcient on the road (three non-Ole Miss games have yielded a combined 5.8 YPA and just one touchdown pass), and his past three SEC games anywhere have yielded just a 1-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

If McCarron is on his game, everything about the Tigers' season-to-date suggests they'll give up major yards and points. But that's a big if given the kind of environment McCarron will face and his erratic play of late.

THE X-FACTOR: the Jordan-Hare Stadium crowd. It's often said that a given football team is "a different team on the road" than at home, and that goes double for one as young as Auburn has been this season. That's how it's played out for Gene Chizik's team, which has dodged a few close scrapes (and played a couple of terrible teams) but nonetheless enters the Iron Bowl with a perfect 6-0 home record. It was just two years ago Alabama came to the Plains to face a 7-4 Tiger team with a national title game berth on the line, and left needing a last-minute touchdown and knocked-down Hail Mary to escape with the win. The Auburn team that's shown up for most of the season may not be quite as fierce as the one the Tide has to tangle with Saturday. 
Posted on: November 22, 2011 3:59 pm
Edited on: November 22, 2011 5:09 pm
 

PODCAST: Previewing Week 13

Posted by Jerry Hinnen

It's Rivalry Week in college football, and if Week 13 provides half the drama of Week 12 (which, of course, was supposed to be one of the most ho-hum weeks of the season), we're in for a treat. In this edition of the CBSSports.com College Football Podcast, Adam Aizer and J. Darin Darst break it all down, from the potential BCS deciders -- can Arkansas upset LSU? Auburn hang with Alabama? Virginia steal the ACC Coastal from Virginia Tech? -- to the pure grudge matches, like Georgia Tech looking for revenge vs. Georgia and Clemson hoping to rebound vs. South Carolina. 

Plus, there's even more where all of that came from. To listen, click below, download the mp3, or pop out the player in a separate window.

Remember, all of the CBSSports.com College Football Podcasts can be downloaded for FREE from the iTunes Store.



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The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com