Posted by Tom Fornelli
BOISE STATE WILL WIN IF: Kellen Moore continues to be Kellen Moore. That's not to say that this game is an easy win for Boise State, because it's not. This will easily be the toughest test that the Broncos have faced since opening the season against Georgia in Atlanta. It's also incredibly important in the Mountain West standings as both of these teams are unbeaten in conference play and the winner will likely win the conference. In order for that to happen for Boise State, Kellen Moore and the offense will have to look at what Baylor and SMU did earlier this season to defeat TCU. This Horned Frogs defense has been good this season, but it's not as good as the unit we've seen the last few years, particularly in the secondary. While it isn't giving up a lot of yards through the air, the fact is that the TCU defense has allowed 18 passing touchdowns this season with only 7 interceptions. With Kellen Moore's accuracy and career ratio of 5.33 touchdowns for every interception thrown, this is something that the Broncos can and should take advantage of.
TCU WILL WIN IF: It can figure out how to stop Kellen Moore and this offense. Which not many teams have been able to do in the past four years. The key to doing this will be to get pressure in Moore's face and try to force him into making throws he either doesn't want to or shouldn't make. Of course, even if you can get some pressure on Moore, Boise's offense is still going to find ways to score, which means TCU will have to play well on offense. The Horned Frogs don't have a strong passing attack this season, but if there's good news it's that you're probably better off running against Boise anyway. The Broncos only allow 140.4 yards per game on the ground, but they also have the lowest amount of rushing attempts per game in the Mountain West. The number that TCU should pay attention to is the fact that Boise is allowing over 4 yards per carry. So a healthy dose of Waymon James, Ed Wesley and Matthew Tucker could go a long way.
X-FACTOR: Bronco Stadium. You may remember that this game was originally supposed to be played in Fort Worth, but then suddenly after TCU announced it would be leaving the Mountain West for the Big East -- which became the Big 12 -- the game was moved to Boise. A factor that can't be overlooked in this contest considering that Boise State hasn't lost a regular season game on the blue turf of Bronco Stadium in a decade.