Tag:Hot Seat Ratings
Posted on: June 24, 2011 3:34 pm
 

Hot Seat Ratings: The Big 12 coaches

Posted by Tom Fornelli

CBSSports.com's very own Dennis Dodd went through every head coach in the FBS this week and assigned a hot seat rating for each one, with 0 being the "coolest" seat and 5 meaning that the coach may end up in a hospital burn ward should he sit down. Looking through Dodd's ratings for each coach in the Big 12 this year, while I agree with most of his ratings, there were a couple I didn't feel were accurate.

Here's the list of Big 12 coaches and the Hot Seat Rating Dodd gave them from lowest to highest.

- Bob Stoops, Oklahoma: 0.0

- Bill Snyder, Kansas State: 0.5

- Paul Rhoads, Iowa State: 1.0

- Gary Pinkel, Missouri: 1.0

- Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State: 1.0

- Tommy Tuberville, Texas Tech: 1.5

- Art Briles, Baylor: 2.0

- Mack Brown, Texas: 2.0

- Mike Sherman, Texas A&M: 2.0

- Turner Gill, Kansas: 3.5

Again, for the most part, I agree with Dennis' rankings, but there are a few of the coaches who I have some nitpicks about. So instead of just writing Dodd an email to let him know, why not publicize it?

Mack Brown - Dodd gives Brown a 2.0 ranking, which according to his system means "Safe--solid position." I do not agree. Honestly, if these were my rankings, I'd bump Brown up to a 4.0. Which Dodd describes as "Warm seat--feeling the pressure." Which is exactly where I think Brown sits at the moment. Coming off of a 5-7 season Brown had to let go of his offensive coordinator Greg Davis and brought in Bryan Harsin. He also saw Will Muschamp leave for Florida. Which means that he was already feeling pressure. You don't go firing your offensive coordinator, and essentially lay the blame at his feet in the process, if you aren't a bit worried about what might come your way.

In a sensible world, Mack Brown should be at 2.0. He should be safe. But this isn't a sensible world, this is Texas Longhorns football where a 5-7 season just isn't acceptable at anytime under anybody. Brown may have a national title to his name, but if Texas goes through another season like the one it went through in 2010, I don't care who Mack Brown is. He'll likely find himself out of a job.

Mike Sherman - Much like Mack Brown, Dodd sets Sherman at a 2.0, and much like Mack Brown, I feel this number is a bit too low. After all, last October when Texas A&M was 3-3 on the year and 0-3 in the Big 12, there were plenty of people who felt Sherman wouldn't be around College Station much longer. Sherman then made the move he had to make by benching Jerrod Johnson for Ryan Tannehill and Tannehill rewarded him by saving his job and helping lead the Aggies on a six-game win streak and berth in the Cotton Bowl.

Still, even with that 9-4 season, the Aggies are still only 19-19 in Sherman's three seasons with the school. The Aggies may not be the power that they once were these days, but I don't think a .500 record is ever going to sit well with a fan base that wants to rule the state of Texas year in and year out. Now, after such a positive finish to the season, expectations are raised at A&M. Should the Aggies and Sherman stumble out of the gate again this season -- and with a stretch of games against Oklahoma State, Arkansas and Missouri early, another 3-3 start isn't out of the question -- then Sherman's pants may be literally on fire before the year is done.

Art Briles - Dennis has Baylor's Art Briles at a 2.0, but I feel that's a bit too high. I'd put Briles at more of a 1.0 or a 1.5 because I just don't see a situation where he's going to be fired this year. In his first two seasons in Waco, Baylor had 4-8 campaigns under Briles, but there was improvement in the team that was evident in anyone who watched. Improvement that led to a 7-6 season in 2010 and Baylor's first trip to a bowl game since 1994.

At a school like Baylor, where football success isn't exactly a common theme, nor is it that big of a deal, I don't see any way in which Briles is going to be fired after leading the program to its first bowl game in 17 years. The only way I can envision Briles not coaching at Baylor in 2012 is if he gets a job somewhere else.

Bob Stoops - Dodd lists Bob Stoops as a 0.0, the safest coach in the Big 12. Dennis is right, Stoops is the safest coach in the conference, but I just don't feel that 0.0 is low enough. I'd put it at a -5.0 because the only way I see Bob Stoops getting fired is if he goes on some cross-country killing spree, and even then he might survive. 

Posted on: June 24, 2011 3:20 pm
 

Hot Seat Ratings show SEC stability

Posted by Jerry Hinnen

When it comes to the SEC and coaching turnover, there's reputation, and there's reality.

The reputation is that with a heaping help of pressure from the nation's most rabid fanbases, the nation's most cutthroat conference hires and fires head coaches on the slightest of whims, for the most gentle of disappointments. And certainly, there have been some head-scratchers over the years, like David Cutcliffe's sudden dismissal from Ole Miss or Houston Nutt's tumultuous departure from Arkansas despite years of success.

But as illustrated by Dennis Dodd's CBS Hot Seat Ratings, since the 2008 season -- and the surprising exits of long-tenured Auburn and Tennessee head coaches Tommy Tuberville and Phillip Fulmer, as well as Mississippi State's Sylvester Croom -- the league that supposedly sees its head coaches change with the wind has in fact become a model of relative stability. Collectively, the SEC has fired just a single coach the past two seasons--Vanderbilt's Robbie Caldwell, himself only hired as a last-minute replacement following Bobby Johnson's retirement.

Four other coaches have left the league in that span, but all of them -- Urban Meyer at Florida, Lane Kiffin at Tennessee, Rich Brooks at Kentucky and Johnson -- did so voluntarily, and in Brooks's case the seamless transition to coach-in-waiting Joker Phillips barely even qualifies as a "coaching change."

That newfound reticence to put coaches on the firing line is reflected in Dodd's ratings, which show just one current SEC coach rated above the median "on the bubble" 3. You get one guess who:

Alabama Nick Saban 0.0
Arkansas Bobby Petrino 1.0
Auburn Gene Chizik 0.0
Florida Will Muschamp 0.5
Georgia Mark Richt 3.5
LSU Les Miles 2.5
Mississippi Houston Nutt 3.0
Mississippi State Dan Mullen 0.0
South Carolina Steve Spurrier 0.0
Kentucky Joker Phillips 1.5
Tennessee Derek Dooley 3.0
Vanderbilt James Franklin 2.0

Assuming we don't have some unforeseen three-win meltdown with Nutt in Oxford, there's a very real possibility the SEC enters 2012 with the same 11 head coaches listed above. Richt is -- without question -- the SEC coach in the most trouble, but he's also a coach with an extremely favorable 2011 schedule, a wealth of talent on hand, and perhaps the most patient administration in the conference.

And if Richt's still here, who won't be? The Spurrier retirement rumors have been securely put to bed with the arrival of recruits like Marcus Lattimore and Jadeveon Clowney. A big 2010 has Miles back on (mostly) firm footing; it'll take multiple down years (or a grass overdose) for him to earn a pink slip. Dooley has at least another couple of seasons with the benefit of the doubt (if we may quibble with Dodd's "3"). And while the aforementioned meltdown might do the trick for Nutt with the Rebels, between his track record and the back-to-back Cotton Bowls -- not something that happens on the regular in Oxford -- he almost certainly has another season of rope.

The most likely coach to keep the SEC from going 12-for-12 in the retention department isn't likely to be fired at all, in fact; it's Dan Mullen, who could be one more sterling season in Starkville away from getting the kind of megabucks, keystone program offer the Bulldogs just can't quite match.

But the guess here is that Dodd, overall, is entirely correct--if Mullen stays put and Richt can salvage eight or nine wins, there's not enough heat under the SEC seats to expect a coaching change anywhere in the league's 12 head coaching positions.


Posted on: June 24, 2011 3:20 pm
 

Hot Seat Ratings show SEC stability

Posted by Jerry Hinnen

When it comes to the SEC and coaching turnover, there's reputation, and there's reality.

The reputation is that with a heaping help of pressure from the nation's most rabid fanbases, the nation's most cutthroat conference hires and fires head coaches on the slightest of whims, for the most gentle of disappointments. And certainly, there have been some head-scratchers over the years, like David Cutcliffe's sudden dismissal from Ole Miss or Houston Nutt's tumultuous departure from Arkansas despite years of success.

But as illustrated by Dennis Dodd's CBS Hot Seat Ratings, since the 2008 season -- and the surprising exits of long-tenured Auburn and Tennessee head coaches Tommy Tuberville and Phillip Fulmer, as well as Mississippi State's Sylvester Croom -- the league that supposedly sees its head coaches change with the wind has in fact become a model of relative stability. Collectively, the SEC has fired just a single coach the past two seasons--Vanderbilt's Robbie Caldwell, himself only hired as a last-minute replacement following Bobby Johnson's retirement.

Four other coaches have left the league in that span, but all of them -- Urban Meyer at Florida, Lane Kiffin at Tennessee, Rich Brooks at Kentucky and Johnson -- did so voluntarily, and in Brooks's case the seamless transition to coach-in-waiting Joker Phillips barely even qualifies as a "coaching change."

That newfound reticence to put coaches on the firing line is reflected in Dodd's ratings, which show just one current SEC coach rated above the median "on the bubble" 3. You get one guess who:

Alabama Nick Saban 0.0
Arkansas Bobby Petrino 1.0
Auburn Gene Chizik 0.0
Florida Will Muschamp 0.5
Georgia Mark Richt 3.5
LSU Les Miles 2.5
Mississippi Houston Nutt 3.0
Mississippi State Dan Mullen 0.0
South Carolina Steve Spurrier 0.0
Kentucky Joker Phillips 1.5
Tennessee Derek Dooley 3.0
Vanderbilt James Franklin 2.0

Assuming we don't have some unforeseen three-win meltdown with Nutt in Oxford, there's a very real possibility the SEC enters 2012 with the same 11 head coaches listed above. Richt is -- without question -- the SEC coach in the most trouble, but he's also a coach with an extremely favorable 2011 schedule, a wealth of talent on hand, and perhaps the most patient administration in the conference.

And if Richt's still here, who won't be? The Spurrier retirement rumors have been securely put to bed with the arrival of recruits like Marcus Lattimore and Jadeveon Clowney. A big 2010 has Miles back on (mostly) firm footing; it'll take multiple down years (or a grass overdose) for him to earn a pink slip. Dooley has at least another couple of seasons with the benefit of the doubt (if we may quibble with Dodd's "3"). And while the aforementioned meltdown might do the trick for Nutt with the Rebels, between his track record and the back-to-back Cotton Bowls -- not something that happens on the regular in Oxford -- he almost certainly has another season of rope.

The most likely coach to keep the SEC from going 12-for-12 in the retention department isn't likely to be fired at all, in fact; it's Dan Mullen, who could be one more sterling season in Starkville away from getting the kind of megabucks, keystone program offer the Bulldogs just can't quite match.

But the guess here is that Dodd, overall, is entirely correct--if Mullen stays put and Richt can salvage eight or nine wins, there's not enough heat under the SEC seats to expect a coaching change anywhere in the league's 12 head coaching positions.


 
 
 
 
The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com