Posted on: September 10, 2010 3:07 am
Here's my take on the one dud and sleeper for this weeks games based on the Sportsline average rankings. This is to help you if you have a tweener at a position but I would start any of my sleepers over my dud's if it was my team. Of course without knowing your team this can only be a guideline but I'll take any specific scenarios if you want to throw them at me. Why listen to me? My success of making the playoffs every year and my championships speaks for itself.
Sleeper - Matt Ryan - Although the Steelers have a great defense, it is better against the run then the pass. The Steelers QB situation should allow the Falcons plenty of offensive opporunities. The Falcons will have trouble on the ground but will make up for it with success by air. Expect Ryan to start his breakout season with 250+ and 2 TD's, which puts him in the top 7 versus the sportsline consensus.
Carson Palmer - T.O. appears and combined with Chad and all of a sudden they are going to have one of the best WR tandems in the NFL? Don't think so. I think NE will dominate on defense and contain Benson and the reality show duo. Palmer has a rough outing in his first game with a couple of turnovers and maybe 1 TD.
Sleeper - Marion Barber - While Romo may have a tough time passing against the Redskins, Marion Barber's tough hard rushing style will produce some big plays. Even with a RBBC he's still the #1 RB and will still get the goal line carries. Look for Barber to post 60+ yards and 1-2 TD's putting him at 12 + points for the week. This puts Barber in the top 11 and possibly better versus the consensus.
Duds - Jamaal Charles - Loved this guy last year as he lead me to the Super Bowl but as talented as he is expect him to be as inconsistant as Michael Turner this year. With a matchup against the tough SD D, I see JC getting completely shut down. Less then 10 points this week dropping JC outside of the top 20.
Sleeper- Malcom Floyd - Maybe the no brainer of the week. With Rivers going against a week KC team and Malcom Floyd and the Chargers looking to prove they don't need Vincent Jackson expect Floyd to have a huge week. 100 yards and a TD puts Floyd in the top 5 this week.
Dud - Ocho Cinco - Sportsline has him ranked 11, but I wouldn't expect to see much this week as OC stays out of the endzone.
Sleeper - Brent Celek - Look for Kolb's safety valve to have a strong game with 50 + yards and at least 1 TD he's a top 5 play this week versus the SL averages. I'm expecting 12 or more points this week.
Dud - Chris Cooley - I'm not expecting much from the Redskins offense this year and especially not this game. Running a 2 TE set with a great target in Fred Davis I expect Cooley to be up and down a lot this year but mostly down. No TD's and not many yards.
Posted on: August 30, 2010 11:05 pm
Having one of the first 4 picks makes things so easy off the jump but it is a long wait to get pick so you had better make it right. You know you're taking a RB with the first pick right? Conventional wisdom is taking a RB, no way you should take a QB right? Right!
Easy CJ, AP, MJD, or Ray.
The hard part comes when you wrap around for 2 crucial picks at 20 and 21. First decision is do you want to take a QB here or not. If you don't you've got to wait til your 6th pick and take Flacco. That opens up taking a1. RB (grant) and WR(Fitzgerald,) or 2. going safe with QB(Schaub) and WR (Fitzgerald)
picks 4,5 (40,41) - route 1 gives you two WR picks (Steve Smith Car, Hines Ward, Wes Welker) route 2 shore up RB Forte, WR Smith, Ward, Welker)
picks 67 (60,61) - route 1 TE Gonzales, QB Flacco or route 2 TE Gonzales,
After 7 picks option 1 yields (Flacco, AP, Grant, Fitzgerald, Ward, Welker, Gonzales)
option 2 (Schaub, AP, Forte, Fitzgerald, Welker, Ward, Gonzales)
I personally like the safe route of option 2. From here you can still take spend the next 7 rounds drafting picking cherries. At the 80th pick and beyond I would expect that you've still potentially got Hakeem Nicks, CJ Spiller, Malcom Floyd, Matt Ryan, Favre, Rothliberger, Ricky Williams, Maclin, LT, Thomas Jones, Celek. Lee Evans, Donald Brown. and the handcuffs for your top RB pick either Javon Ringer or Toby Gerhardt.
Although I always advocate taking a D late this team is so strong and so deep after 7 rounds I could justify using the 8th pick to go ahead a and take a top D. With the Jets on top of this team and and a stable of RB's on the bench this team could be really tough to beat...
Posted on: August 30, 2010 8:31 pm
Since I deleted this by accident here it is again. Doh..;.
As noted before these are based on 10 yards = 1 point and a TD equals 6 points. My rounds are 10 team drafts but you can still do the math to work out a 12 team.
Hakeem Nicks, currently averaging a ridiculous 75th and he’s one of the top 15-20 WR’s in the league. Since he’s going 48 -106 grab him 7th or later. But don’t let him go by in the 8th.
Percy Harvin, currently averaging 70th but has slipped into the 100’s. As the #1 WR for at least 6 weeks and maybe more depending on Rice’s recovery, he’s a definite #1 WRuntil Rice returns If you can grab him in the 7th or later he's a no brainer.
Malcom Floyd, currently averaging 90th . The guy is #1 for 3 weeks and it looks like Jackson may sit out the season or be traded. With Jackson playing Floyd is still good for 600 yards, without Jackson he’s going to get 1,000 and 6-8+ TD’s. He is a 6’5” beast after all. With him going between 62-136 I would say any opportunity to grab him in the 9th or later is a pick well spent.
Derrick Mason – 101, between 65-141 Derrick Mason is in for a big year, the beneficiary of Boldin and a pass happy offense. Plus he is very consistent.
Lee Evans - Try to explain why he’s averaging 126, going between 87-164. The guys good for 6TD’s and 800 yards, does that make him a 11th or 12th round pick? Apparently so in this world but If he’s there in the 11th I’d hop on him.
Eddie Royal – Avg 96 On paper a real flyer but he can catch and he can score. I don’t think Jabbar Gaffney is going to be the go to guy in Denver this year and they desperately need a WR that can haul in the TD passes and obviously get yards. Going anywhere between 92-182 gives a lot of room but I’m loving this guy in the 12th round or later. Depending on who else is there I might let him go to the 13th.
With a 10 or 12 team league and the need for only 1 TE it’s hard to call a real sleeper but I think you can wait here to stock up on other positions and still grab a quality TE. But let’s look deep.
Tony G is the 7th picked TE and he’s averaging the 60th spot and then it drops to 91 with Cooley. So we’ll start there and look at who a 10th rounder or later would be.
Shiancoe- avg 101, 61-152. Favre will continue to depend on Shiancoe and AP’s fumbling just gives more reason for Favre to want to throw the ball inside the 5. Without the tall target of Sidney Rice for a while Shiancoe should clean up.
Owen Daniel avg 100 seems too easy, Id take him after Shiancoe but no reason he won’t be as successful as last year, especially with Schaub potentially even getting better.
Heath Miller avg 132. Going between 75-169 makes him an easy target in the 13th or 14th rounds right before your kicker and D or if you’ve already got one of those pick up the most undervalued, ignored TE in FFL below
Fred Davis might as well be Pluto, yeah I know it’s not even considered a planet anymore so you get my point. Cooley is back and he’s a stud and will rightfully get a ton of attention but in case you missed it Fred Davis is a stud. He’ll be sitting there as your wrapping up your draft. McNabb loves the TE’s, especially big targets and Fred will be in the 2 TE set trying to help the Skins suspect line. I’m betting he’ll emerge this year and when your looking at TE’S next year he’ll be in the top 10.
Just for folks who actually want to wait until the end of the draft instead of reaching I’ll throw a few in.
San Diego. 135. Between 82-176. Take em 15th> . Merriman back, Sproles always a return threat.
Patriots – 142. Between 92-188. 15th no explosive ST but have potential to be a better D
Redskins – 155 between 99-214. Depending on how the roster works out they may have some special teams ability but as much as I hate them I gotta say they could have a sick D. Players seem excited about the 3-4 they’ve got the talent I just wonder how tired they will be if the offense is bad. McNabb already may be out the first game..
Kickers Don’t even think I need to go here but if you’re struggling late then here’s your guy.
Jeff Reed -
Posted on: August 30, 2010 8:11 pm
Fantasy Draft - A guide to picking a Super Bowl Team.
To build a Super Bowl team your entire draft strategy should be based on where your first pick falls. This can differ a little bit year to year. In my opinion this year it's 1-4, 5-8, and 9-10 or 12. If you don't have the right strategy for your draft spot you're either going to end up reaching and wasting picks or waiting to long and ending up with sub par starters. Run your pick strategy from rounds 1-9 from there it's pretty much all about getting smart/value reserves.
I'd like to know how this works out for you.
This is a guide to the 5 to 8th pick in this years Draft.
I feel like I can rely on the top 4 RB's to play 16 and post solid numbers with consistency. Then I see 3 QB's that fall under the same description. That sets the stage for my guide below.
If he’s not available I’d go with Peyton, then Brees. I know Brees is a stud I just go with consistency.
16, 17, 18, 19 WR Roddy White, - Consistent double digit scorer last year, in his prime and his team and QB are only getting better.
If he’s gone there’s bound to be Wayne, Fitzgerald, Colston, Johnson. – If I had Rodgers I go Wayne if Manning I’d go Fitzgerald.
25,26, 27, 28 . WR/RB Very tempting to go WR here with Calvin Johnson, Brandon Marshall, and other studs left here and you’ll have some sellers remorse because you’ll watch them all get soaked up before your number comes back up. But I like RB here for mainly because you get a young consistent guy with a good O-line. if Mendenhall or Grant are available go ahead and lock in your RB. Shonne Green or Addai are viable options here.
36, 37, 38, 39 WR/RB I’m looking right for Anquan Boldin. Lock him in here and your looking really nice. If Boldin is not available you’ve got to consider best on the board. You could have your pick of TE’s, or a maybe a tweener at RB.
45, 46, 47, 48 This is a tough pick. You probably can’t get Gates here, so it’s a tough call between RB or WR. You could probably bypass Ward and Floyd here and get them in the next round and grab Forte or Jahvid Best to get your 2nd RB spot filled.
56, 57, 58, 59 Depending on your last pick you need to grab you 3rd WR or 2nd RB. I’d take Ward here and scoop your TE in the 7th .
AT this point you need to do some evaluating. Check the roster grid of the guys on either side of you. This should help you decide if you should grab a WR/TE/RB based on their need….
If you look like this (Rodgers, Mendenhall, Forte, White, Boldin, Ward) It’s time to scoop your TE and run the table on the last 10 picks with 4 RB’s, 1 WR, 2 TE’s, 1 QB, 1D, 1k – Time to look at your value picks here too. WR's Lee Evans, Hakeem Nicks, Percy Harvin. RB’s Ricky Williams, Thomas Jones, LT, Donald Brown, TE's Gonzo, Celek, Finley. QB Flacco. There's deeper bargains listed below.
65, 66, 67, 68 Get your TE here as long as you’re not reaching, you should have Tony Gonzales, Brent Celek, or Finley available. Otherwise get your backup QB no brainer if Flacco is here but since he’s probably gone Matt Ryan, Kolb, Rothlisberger, Favre in that order.
76, 77, 78, 79 Cross of a guy of the list from round 7 and repeat, If you took a QB you’re done at there. Don’t be afraid to take another TE if the other of Tony Gonzales, Brent Celek if not available Williams, Jones, or Matt Ryan, Kolb, Favre, Rothlisberger.
You should have grabbed your second TE or QB in round 8 so pick up the other one here, although If Donald Brown or Arinan Foster is here I’d probably take them.
By now you’ve got your core team of 2 QB’s, 2 RB’s, 3 WR’s, 2 TE’s. Now just start filling up RB’s and grab one more value WR in rounds 10, 11, 12, 13, and 14 then finish with your D and kicker.
Posted on: August 29, 2010 11:21 pm
There are a lot of bargains slipping through the cracks in this years FFL drafts. I particpated in mock drafts on all different sites and already had my several of my leagues drafts this year. These were all 10 team leagues, RB/WR 1 for 10 yards and QB's 1 /25 with 6 for TD's.
Here's what I've seen.
QB's - This year has seen a massive early run on QB's. If you don't draft Rodgers, Brees, or Manning in the first round you probably won't see them. In fact they may be gone as early as the 8th pick. Schaub and Brady will be gone in the second Romo, Rivers may make the 3rd round but certainly won't make the 4th.
So, if you're the owner looking for that mid draft starting QB bargain you still have at least one great option. By far my favorite is Joe Flacco in the 5th or 6th round. He will post his best numbers by far this year thanks to Boldin, 3,600-3,800 yards and 28-30 TD's seem very realistic.
There are a few other QB's I really like late. While any of these guys could have a standout season on their own I'd feel more comfortable with 2 of the 3. But any combination of Matt Ryan, Kevin Kolb, Brett Favre. based on their weekly matchup should do quite well for you.
Matt Ryan could end up becoming a top QB in the NFL, this year could be the breakout year with 3,500+ yards and 25+ TD's.
Kolb's a wildcard but we already know he can put up the numbers. He hasn't played a full season but he's no rookie. McNabb posted 3,500 and and 22 TD's in 14 games, Kolb can certainly post 3,600 and 25 TD's over 16. I know it's a stretch now but in a year or two he could rise to be the next Aaron Rodgers.
As much as I dislike Favre he's still going to go out and bomb 300 yard games and throw a couple TD's. He'll have double the INT's he had last year but who cares his numbers should be good enough to overcome a pick a game. I really do think this will be his last year and he won't see all 16 games for the first time in his career.
I absolutely love the options all the bargains at RB this year. I know the common thinking on RB's, but more and more every year RBBC is changing that. Regardless of your strategy you need depth. With 3 or more of these guys on your bench you're ready during that bye week or when that injury happens.
#1 sleeper is Matt Forte. Great pick in the 5th but an absolute steal in the 6th or later.. He's a dual threat coming off a horrible year, thanks in part to his horrible QB. I know Forte isn't a TD machine but he's consistent and if he can get 1,600 yards from scrimmage and throw in 8 or more TD's he's going to average 10 points a game with some bigger weeks thrown in.
#2 CJ Spiller - How often can you get a starting RB in the 7th round? This guy is the real deal, a true burner and playmaker. He will make an impact this year.
3 Arian Foster - The only other option as a starting RB, I've seen him go as late as the 9th round, he's the starter at Houston you have to grab him here.
Ricky Williams - 8th or later. Even if Ronnie Brown can make it through the whole season, which I doubt he will, Williams can still score some points. If Ronnie goes down then Williams has a real chance to score some points. 1,300 yards and 11 TD's last year there's no reason he can't repeat that.
There are some older but proven RB's sitting behind young unproven starters. Look no further then the Jets and the Chiefs. The Jets ran the ball over 600 times last year an amazing number. 2/3 of those carries are not longer there and LT is there to fill a big part of that void. Everyone is hot on Jamaal Charles this year and another solid RB has been forgotten. While TJ doesn't have the O-line he did last year 1,400 yards and 14 TD's shows he's got something. Draft LT in the 9th round and TJ in the 11th and you'll have another starter before the end of the season, in the meantime you'll have a RB who can contribute in a pinch.
Donald Brown, the best of all the handcuffs. He can run he can catch and he can fill in perfectly for Addai if he's hurt Addai's already had some trouble staying healthy and his concussion doesn't help. If he ends up starting you've got a quality back on one of the most proflific offenses in the NFL
WR's and TE's to come...