Posted on: October 2, 2012 8:52 am
 

Trout vs Cabrera

The debate between Trout and Miggy is a silly one.

 

All of these new age writers, like Passan on Yahoo, keep talking about the fact that Trout's defense is reason why he gets the edge. Defense has NEVER mattered in MVP voting. The hypocrisy is emphasized by the simple fact that Passan was the number one advocate for Verlander's MVP win. How much defense does Verlander play? How about NONE.

 

Miggy has 84 extra base hits (40 doubles, 44 jacks). Trout has 63 (26,7,30). Never has a player (in the modern age) won an MVP with only 63 extra base hits.

 

Miggy has a combined 236 runs/rbi. Trout has 213. A massive difference.

 

Another pet peave. When have stolen bases ever mattered in MVP voting? The only two speeders that I can recall winning on stolen bases are Jimmy Rollins and Rickey Henderson. When Jimmy won with his 40+ steals he also had 30 jacks, 20 triples and 38 doubles (a whopping 88 extra bases), so the production was easily there. When Rickey did it his number look a lot like Trout's, except for the fact that he had 65 steals to go with 28 jacks and 33 doubles. A big difference is the walk numbers. Rickey had 97 walks that year to only 60 strikeouts. Trout has 67 walks and a whopping K/game rate with 136 punch outs.

 

Now to the triple crown. Writers are a bit silly on this one. They paint the misleading picture that Miggy shouldnt win simply because he is going to win the triple crown. They suggest that the triple crown is a collection of three random stats of varying importance. How stupid is that. The Triple crown reflects the rare feat where a player hits for the BEST average in the league and the BEST power in the league and does so in BIG moments. Power hitters always cheat on average to get 10 more bombs. Average hitters choke up and slap balls with two strikes. Its incredibly rare that a player can LEAD THE ENTIRE league in both, because to excel at one you must sacrifice the other. The triple crown is an UNBELIEVABLE FEAT.

 

Lets also not let the triple crown skew the other key facts.

 

Miggy leads ALL OF BASEBALL in OPS and Mike Trout by 40 points.

Miggy leads ALL OF BASEBALL in Slugging Percentage and Mike Trout by 60 points.

Miggy leads ALL OF BASEBALL in extra base hits. Mike Trout is 26th in baseball.

 

And then there is, what I personally think is the most important category for any baseball player, which is total bases.

 

Miggy has 375. He leads ALL OF BASEBALL with a massive 20 base edge. He leads Mike Trout by a WHOPPING 64 bases. So even if you factor in the total number of bags Trout has stolen that Miggy hasn't, Miggy still has Trout by 20+ total bases.

 

Only Derek Jeter has more hits than Miggy in all of baseball. Miggy has 24 more hits on the season than Trout.

 

Miggy struck out 39 less times than Trout did.

 

Miggy gets intentionally walked way more than Trout 17 to 3.

 

Bottom line is that Miggy leads ALL OF BASEBALL and Mike Trout in every meaningful stat, except for runs scored. That includes OPS, Slugging, hits, doubles, home runs, extra base hits, total bases, rbi and strikeouts.

 

So why on earth is this such a debate.

Category: MLB
Posted on: September 21, 2010 4:02 pm
 

CC vs. Felix - Who Deserves Dinner with Cy?

Numbers shaping up the way they are it is apparent that the race for American League Cy Young is between two of the biggest horses in the game: CC. Sabathia vs. Felix Hernandez. Put another way it could also be seen as a race between baseball's old school of thinking and the new "sabremetrics" philosophy.

Baseball's old school would suggest that this is a walk in the park; a no doubter if you will. This school of thought would start their analysis by contrasting CC's 20+ wins and 77% winning percentage to Felix's 12+ wins and barley 50% winning percentage. The discrepancy in total wins and winning percentage are so great that Felix has no business being compared with Mr. Sabathia. On this basis the old school would anoint CC and let the fat lady sing.

The "old school" would be wrong, of course, and the sabremetrics "kids" will do their best to point that out. Just as the "kids" did last year in helping Zack Grienke break the traditional wins total mold to take home the 2009 AL Cy Young award.

The new school will point to the fact that Felix has dominated CC in the primary pitching categories: Felix will have a better era (2.35 to 3.04), better whip (1.07 to 1.17), more k's (222 to 187), more innings pitched (234 to 224), better opponents BAA (.216 to .238) and more quality starts (28 to 25).

The "kids" will also dig a little deeper, CC has 12 wins in 14 tries against the four worst offences in baseball: 5 against Baltimore, 3 against Seattle, 2 against Oakland and 2 against KC.

 

Felix's defense has given up 17 unearned runs. Sabathia has only had to deal with 8 unearned runs.

 

One of the more telling pieces of analysis will be the differences in offense. CC's Yankees provided enough offense to generate 6 wins for CC, in starts where CC gave up 3 or more runs. The Mariners offense didn’t win a single game for Felix where he gave up 3 or more runs. In other words, Felix didn’t earn a win in any start where he gave up more than 2 runs.

 

Felix vs CC in starts where exactly 3 runs were surrendered to the opponent:

 

CC       6 wins     1 losses     2 no decisions

Felix    0 wins     3 losses     3 no decisions

 

Felix vs CC in starts where 2 or fewer runs were surrendered to the opponent:

 

CC        13 wins     1 losses     2 no decisions

Felix     12 wins     4 losses     6 no decisions

 

This second graphic is mind bending. Felix has 23 starts of 2 or fewer runs. 7 of those where he gave up zero runs, 7 of those where he gave up 1 run and 9 where he gave up 2 runs. Of those 23 starts he only has 12 wins. Sabathia has one more win despite having 7 fewer 2 or less run games.

 

The difference in winning percentage comes down to 2 simple things. Firstly, the Yankees score more runs than the Mariners. During CC starts this year the Yankees scored 175 runs. During Felix starts this year the Mariners scored 101 runs. That means that CC is getting more than 2 runs more per start to work with. To emphasize this, if CC was a Mariner this season and Felix was a Yankee their respective records would have been*:

 

CC        16 wins     14 losses     2 no decisions

Felix     25 wins     6 losses      1 no decision

 

Secondly the defense factor comes into play. As mentioned, Felix's defense gave up 17 unearned runs and CC's only gave up 8.

 

The CY will go to CC because that’s how baseball works. It’s a shame though, because in rewarding CC with the best pitching award you are almost giving the award to the Yankees for having the best offense in baseball.

* The note concerning records if the players switched teams isn’t meant to be overly persuasive. It assumes that all runs scored by the new team's offense were scored in the first inning. This assumption is far reaching because it eliminates the possibility that runs are scored after the first inning and thus eliminates the possibility for lead changes. It also assumes the teams would have played identically in front of CC and Felix on those given days and that CC and Felix have equivalent defensive abilities.

 

 
 
 
 
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