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Tag:Iowa
Posted on: March 9, 2012 3:16 am
Edited on: March 9, 2012 10:26 am
 

Bubble buster Thursday

A lot of bubble teams did themselves no favors today, and that has caused another shakeup at the bottom of the bracket.

Washington, Northwestern, Oregon and Mississippi State were among those that not only lost, but lost badly.  The Wildcats lost to Minnesota, but the other three all lost to triple-digit RPI teams.  Despite Northwestern's loss, I still have them in the bracket. 

South Florida also lost, in overtime, to Notre Dame.  The Bulls are also still in the bracket -- for now.

Washington is not though.  The Huskies are the regular season champion of the moribund Pac-12, but their lack of quality wins, both inside and outside the league, will make it hard for the committee to select them.  If they miss, they will be the first major-conference champion ever to do so in the 64+ team era.  They would also be the first outright champion of a top ten league to miss since Miami-Ohio did so in 2005.

Cincinnati is climbing up the bracket quickly with a win over Georgetown in the Big East tournament.  I have them in an 8-9 game today.

Ole Miss won its game, setting up an elimination clash with Tennessee in the SEC.

Iowa put the final nail in Illinois' coffin at the Big Ten tournament, not that the Illini held out realistic at-large hopes anyway.

Texas and Colorado St filled holes in their tournament resumes by winning away from home.  The Rams beat TCU for their best away win of the year, and Texas beat Iowa State to help get a good grip on their spot in the field.

Games to watch tomorrow for bubble teams include Xavier-Dayton, Tennessee-Ole Miss, and the Pac 12 semis.





Posted on: March 3, 2012 2:20 am
 

Jam packed Saturday

There have been no changes to the bracket the last couple of days, but it is sure to change tomorrow as many teams end their regular seasons, and three conferences crown their tournament champions.

The Atlantic Sun, Big South and Ohio Valley conferences will decided their automatic qualifiers Saturday.  All bubble teams will be watching the OVC game closely as Tennessee State tries to steal an at-large bid away when it faces Murray State.  The Racers are in the NCAAs, win or lose.

Harvard can also clinch the Ivy League title with a win at Cornell and a loss by Penn to Yale.

Everyone will be talking about North Carolina and Duke, which could have top seed implications, but the games involving teams trying to fight their way into the bracket are more interesting.

West Virginia is at South Florida in a battle of bubble teams.  The winner isn't necessarily a lock and the loser isn't necessarily eliminated, but the winner could have a leg up on the loser if they are competiting for a spot in the bracket.

Texas has a chance to make a big splash, and fill a big hole in its tournament profile, when it travels to Kansas.  The Longhorns do not have a win away from home of any significance, but I think it's safe to say, winning at Phog would be significant.

Northwestern will try to keep its number of bad losses at zero as it goes on the road to play Iowa.  The Hawkeyes have been playing much better the last few weeks, but they are not a tournament team, so it's a must win for the Wildcats.

Washington can wrap up an outright Pac-12 championship with a win at UCLA.

Finally, BYU has a chance to pick up its best win of the season when it faces Gonzaga in the semifinals of the WCC tournament.  The Cougars beat the Zags at home earlier this year.

Posted on: November 11, 2011 10:57 pm
 

On field talk: BCS games of the week

It may not be a Game of the Century, but it is the Game of the Week.  Stanford and Oregon in Palo Alto likely for the Pac-12 North title, but also to stay in the national championship hunt.

One of the BCS games of the week was played last night, when Virginia Tech won 37-26 at Georgia Tech.  The ACC Coastal division title could come down to the Virginia-Virginia Tech game at the end of the season.

Clemson hosts Wake Forest this week for control of the Atlantic division.

Texas Tech hasn't won, or even looked competent, since beating Oklahoma a few weeks ago.  Now the Red Raiders get their shot at Oklahoma State.  Maybe they only show up for the big games.

There are two big games in the B1G.  Michigan St is at Iowa.  Both teams control their own destiny for the Legends division crown.  MSU will be looking to redeem itself after getting embarrassed in Iowa City last year.

And, of course, Nebraska is in Unhappy Valley to take on Penn State.  As a Big Ten guy, this is a game that would be must see TV for me (even though neither school was in the Big Ten in my day).  Honestly though, I'm not sure I can bring myself to tune in.  Penn St has a two-game lead in the Leaders division, with three very tough games left under the best of circumstances.

Last call for anyone to beat Boise State comes on Saturday, when TCU takes to the smurf turf and takes on the Broncos.

Also, UCLA keeps its push to save Rick Neuheisel's job going -- not to mention to win the Pac-12 South -- as they face Utah in Salt Lake City.

Posted on: October 30, 2011 11:14 pm
Edited on: October 30, 2011 11:22 pm
 

BCS and bowl notes, Oct. 30

Stanford made its inevitable move past Boise State in the BCS this week and will now try (but ultimately fail) to close on Oklahoma State.

Oklahoma is at the top of the list of one-loss teams at No. 6, and might be able to stay there for a while.  Oregon is actually ahead of the Sooners in both the Harris and coaches' polls, but Oklahoma's computer strength might be good enough to hold off the Ducks long-term.

Arkansas is sandwiched between those two in the BCS ratings, and can't be ruled out as a contender yet.  The Hogs still have LSU on the schedule, but for them, it would really help to be the division (and conference) winner, but they do not control their own desitny.  Arkansas could be like Michigan State last year and go 11-1 and have no chance for a BCS berth because of two more desireable teams in its own league.
Of course, one more team will join that battle next week.

Houston has quietly crept up to No. 13, and if it weren't for Boise State, would be high enough in the rankings to automatically qualify for a BCS spot.  Unfortunately, that only goes to the highest rated non-AQ conference champion, and it'll take at least one Bronco loss to knock them below the Cougars.

Penn State is not really getting much respect from the voters or the computers, but the No. 16 Nittany Lions lead the Big Ten and are the last undefeated team in conference play.  Nebraska, Michigan and MSU are in a three-way tie for first in the Whatever Division.  It could have been a four-way tie, but Iowa managed to do something that not even New Mexico State and North Dakota State could accomplish -- lose to Minnesota.

And who would have thought we'd enter November with teams like Wake Forest, Virginia and UCLA still in control of their own destinies for conference titles, but Wisconsin, Florida, Georgia and Florida State needing help.

I am still one team short of the number needed in this week's bowl projections.  Toledo is left standing at the altar at the Little Caesar's Bowl.


Posted on: March 6, 2011 12:08 pm
Edited on: March 6, 2011 1:10 pm
 

Mar. 6 Bracket - Change at Both Ends

by Jerry Palm

Saturday was a day of change in the bracket at both ends.  At the top, Duke lost to North Carolina, giving the Tar Heels the ACC regular season title.  Quick show of hands - who had UNC winning the ACC regular season back in October.  Yeah, me neither.

That loss by the Blue Devils, combined with Notre Dame's win at Connecticut, has vaulted the Irish to the top line of the bracket.  For now.  In fact, just about ever sentence of this post could end with "for now."

Purdue missed the bus to Iowa, and whoever was wearing their uniforms instead lost to Iowa.  That is costly for the Boilers.  Not only did it cost them a shot at the Big Ten regular season title, but it knocks them out of realistic contention for a No. 1 seed and -- again, for now -- out of the Chicago sub-regional.

Ohio State will go through its coronation ceremony as Big Ten champs later today, but first there is the little matter of facing Wisconsin.   The Badgers are suddenly thrust into 1-seed contention, but would have to win out.  They could have three wins over the Buckeyes if they do so.

The other big game in the Big Ten saw Michigan complete the season sweep of Michigan State.   Despite their 16-13 record, there was still room for Sparty in the bracket in one of the First Four games.  They better do something in Indianapolis though if they hope to stay there.

That may still be true of the Wolverines also.  Just because they beat MSU twice doesn't mean they are safe. 

Also, in the ACC, Clemson knocked off Virginia Tech.   That created a space at the bottom of the bracket for the Tigers, but I believe the Hokies still have a better profile.

Which brings me to today's selection/seeding lesson -- head-to-head isn't decisive.  It is possible for Michigan St to get selected and Michigan left out for for the Spartans to be higher seeded, despite the season sweep by Michigan.  Teams get judged on their entire seasons.  Not just one or two games, as in the case of head-to-head, or even two-thirds, as in the case of conference performance.

Clemson is another example.  The Tigers beat both Boston College and Virginia Tech, but both at home.  They didn't have to travel to either place.  Clemson had a better day when it played each of those teams, but has not has as good a season overall, and that is how those teams are judged.

Louisville fans have also been upset to see the Cards seeded behind Syracuse despite a win over the Orange and being ahead in the conference standings before yesterday's loss at West Virginia.   Syracuse had a much better overall profile though.

Speaking of meaningless conference standings, Alabama picked up a much-needed win over Georgia to keep it's slim at-large hopes alive.  The Tide is going to need to do some serious damage in Atlanta to have any realistic shot at an at-large bid.

Washington lost at home again late last night, this time to USC.   The Huskies will face in-state rival Washington State in the conference tournament.  The Cougars swept UW this season.

Nobody's case for seeding or selection is done yet.  The conference tournaments will certainly have a impact.  Many teams in the middle of the major conference still have a lot of work yet to do.

One more bid will go out later today.  Missouri State looks to make its first tournament appearance since 1999 when it faces sixth-seeded Indiana State in the Missouri Valley final on CBS.

See complete Bracketology coverage here.


Posted on: February 14, 2011 9:51 pm
 

Injuries/Roster Issues

by Jerry Palm

Florida State beat Virginia on Saturday, but it probably didn't feel like much of a win.  The Seminoles lost their leading scorer and rebounder, Chris Singleton, to a broken foot and he will probably miss the rest of the season.

The selection committee often has to deal with issues similar to this.  The key factor with injuries, suspensions and other roster issues is whether or not the player in question will be available for the NCAA tournament.  The committee usually gives a little more weight to how that team does with the roster that's going to go to the tournament than how they did otherwise.  But only a little.

It also seems to be considered more for seeding than selections.

Sometimes, the committee doesn't have a lot to go on.  One of the most famous cases involved a player that was lost in his team's final game before the tournament.  In 2000. Cincinnati's Kenyon Martin broke his leg in the Conference USA tournament and his team lost the game in which he was injured.  Before that, the Bearcats were the No. 1 team in the country and Martin was the player-of-the-year.  The committee had virtually no time to decide what to do and nothing to go on.  Cinci hadn't played a game without Martin -- they hadn't even had a practice without him.  The decision by the committee was to make Cincinnati a 2-seed, which they felt was a compromise between what they had accomplished and what they thought of the team without Martin.  Cincinnati didn't make it out of the first weekend.

Last year, Purdue lost Robbie Hummel late in February and even though the Boilers went 4-2 after that, they clearly weren't the same team.  At the end of the season, they were still the Big Ten regular season champion and had a profile worthy of a 1-seed or 2-seed, but the committee dropped them down to a 4-seed.

The flip side of that also goes back to 2000, when Mateen Cleaves missed a few games for Michigan State, including a loss to Wright State.  The Spartans ended the season with an RPI of 13 and a profile befitting a 2-seed or maybe even a 3-seed.  The committee recognized how good they were when Cleaves played though and gave the eventual national champions a 1-seed.

Florida State isn't starting from nearly as strong of a position.  They are at best a bubble team and will need to reprove themselves to the committee as a team that is capable of playing tournament quality basketball, even without Singleton.  If a team's profile doesn't stack up well enough to get selected, it won't get picked, injury or no.  The Seminoles are a late-season slide from playing in the NIT.

Minnesota has been without Al Nolen for a few weeks now, so the Gophers are in the same hole.  They lost four straight before pounding Iowa on Sunday.

Michigan State kicked Korie Lucious off the team after the loss at Purdue, but the Spartans were dysfunctional before that.  Things haven't really improved much since, but they did beat Penn State impressively on Thursday.

Mississippi State has been without both Dee Bost and Renardo Sidney at times, but haven't done well enough with them to merit any serious consideration.

Kansas State has had a revolving door at times.  They have players who were suspended and came back, and other who have left for good.  The committee will have fun with them, perhaps.

This is just a few of the cases the committee will look at.  They will know about all roster issues.  Keep in mind though that the committee will not assume that a game lost without a key player would have been won if that player been available.  They just put a little more weight on the games that player played in their seeding decisions.

 
 
 
 
The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com