Tag:Southern Miss
Posted on: February 21, 2012 4:36 pm
Edited on: February 21, 2012 5:10 pm
 

Feb. 21 bracket: Big Ten loses some ground

Today's bracket is posted.  The top two lines remain the same.  A lot of shuffling happened below that.

The biggest news, I guess, is that I finally have a bracket with less than nine Big Ten teams in it.  Minnesota's most recent loss has the Gophers on the outside looking in.  Illinois is just a train wreck.  Nobody has looked less like an NCAA tournament team than the Illini in the last few weeks.

They were replaced by Iowa State and Washington.  Both teams are lacking in quality wins.  They each have only three RPI top 100 wins.  It's been nine years since the last time the committee took such a team, but of course, the season isn't over yet.  They have never taken a team with just three top 100 wins and none in the top 50, but that's Washington at the moment.  The field is bigger now.  They have to take somebody.

The team making the biggest move up the bracket lately has been New Mexico. The Lobos had a great week last week, beating San Diego State on the road and UNLV at home.  They now lead the Mountain West by two games.

Notre Dame continues its climb up the bracket as well.  The Irish extened their winning streak to eight games with an overtime win at Villanova.

It was a rough weekend in Conference USA as both Southern Miss and Memphis suffered their worst losses of the season.  The Golden Eagles fell at Houston, while the Tigers blew a big lead at home to UTEP.

Mississippi State is also falling apart at the wrong time.  The Bulldogs lost three in a row, including games to non-tournament teams Georgia and Auburn.  Those are their worst losses of the season.

The bracket buster took place last weekend, and as usual, no brackets were actually busted.  Murray State picked up an impressive win over St. Mary's, which will give the Racers a bit of a cushion should it need an at-large bid.  Long Beach State could have done the same, but couldn't hold on at Creighton.


Posted on: November 14, 2011 1:49 am
 

BCS, bowl thoughts, Nov. 13

The more I think about it, the more I think Bedlam will decide one participant in the BCS title game.  Obviously, Oklahoma State controls its own destiny as one of the last two major undefeated teams.  However, if we are in a situation where the Cowboys get beat, especially if Oklahoma is the team to beat them, the Sooners may be the voters only reasonable option if they want to avoid a rematch for LSU.

If that scenario arises, we are looking at three likely opponent choices for LSU:

1. Alabama, which gave the Tigers the better game, but it was a short time ago and the Tide lost to LSU at home.  Alabama won't even be a division champion.

2. Oregon, which was not especially competitive in its season opening loss to LSU, which took place in Dallas.  The Ducks would be Pac-12 champs though.

3. Oklahoma.  The Sooners haven't lost to LSU yet, which would probably appeal to voters, and would also be a confernece champ.  The champion, in fact, of the highest rated league.  Of course, their one loss was a pretty yucky one (yes, that is a scientific term).

I think what little history we have shows voters would go for the Sooners, and the computers would likely back that up.

---

I recevied some comments about Penn State being so low in the Big Ten bowl food chain in this week's projections.  I think bowls may shy away from the Nittany Lions so that their story doesn't become the bowl's story as well.  There is an old saying that there is no such thing as bad publicity.  I would suggest this is an exception.

The Big Ten has a one-win rule for bowl selections, so Penn State can only drop so far, depending on how other Big Ten teams do.

Is this fair to the players?  No, of course not, but bowl selection has never been about fairness.

---

Boise State is the highest rated non-AQ team this week at No. 10, but because it very likely won't win the Mountain West, it cannot automatically qualify for an at-large BCS berth.

Houston at No. 11 controls its own destiny for that berth, which goes to the highest-rated, non-AQ conference champion as long as it is in the top 12 of the standings, or in the top 16, but ahead of one of the AQ champions.  With the Big East cannibalizing each other, it's pretty likely top 16 is good enough again this year.

That means, if Houston falls, TCU, which is currently No. 19, could end up with that spot.  Or even Southern Miss at No. 20, if the Golden Eagles were to win out and knock the Cougars from the ranks of the unbeated in the C-USA championship game.

Southern Miss in the BCS.  We are a ways still from that happening, but who had that at the beginning of the year?  Put your hands down, liars.

Posted on: December 20, 2010 7:50 am
Edited on: December 21, 2010 12:02 am
 

RPI Stability

by Jerry Palm

Since the RPI is a rating that has no preseason bias -- everyone starts at zero and builds from there -- early season numbers can be a bit, shall we say, counterintuitive.

For example, teams like Cleveland State, Boston College, Miami and Southern Miss are in the top 25 of the RPI, but are not likely to be getting too many votes in the polls.

Ohio State, which looks like one of the few teams capable of challenging Duke, sits at No. 10 this morning.  The Dukies themselves only rank fourth.

Baylor will almost certainly be the lowest rated RPI team among the top 25 that comes out later today.  The Bears are 92nd after their loss to Gonzaga.

Purdue is barely in the top 50.  Michigan State is 61st.  Both will be in the top 20 of the polls.

That kind of thing is not unusual for big conference teams, which have the bulk of the better teams on their schedule in conference.  Part of that though is that some smaller conference schools that play very tough non-conference schedules don't look as good in the RPI now to the teams that played them as they will later on.

Oakland is a prime example of that.  The Grizzlies are the favorite to win the Summit, but are currently only 6-6 (0-4 in the Big Ten).  However, they are likely on their way to roughly 22 wins if they play as you'd expect, which will be a lot more helpful to their opponents' RPI ratings than their current 6-6 record is.

So, don't get too worked up about team RPI numbers yet.  The further we go along, the better and more stable it will get.

Conference RPI numbers are a little more reliable because they are heavily influenced by non-conference performance, and most of the non-conference schedule is in the books.



 
 
 
 
The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com