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Tag:Kansas State
Posted on: October 28, 2011 1:29 pm
 

West Virginia, Arizona Western and games to watch

Brett McMurphy has been all over the West Virginia to the Big 12 story, which became official today.  In his story, Brett said, "With the Big 12 only taking West Virginia, the Big East’s chances of retaining its BCS automatic qualifying status in 2014 is greatly improved."

I'm sure he means as opposed to taking both West Virginia and Louisville, which would have been worse because that would have meant the Big East having to find two more teams instead of just one.  However, it would have been much better for the Big 12 to have caved to some senatorial pressure and took just Louisville.  The Mountaineers have been the most consistely good program in the Big East, so while the league only needs to find one more replacement, it will be hard pressed to find one that is anywhere near the quality of West Virginia.  Note I am excluing the six programs already being pursued by the league, Boise State, Air Force, Navy, Houston, SMU and UCF.

Note that Brett mentioned the AQ status for 2014 and beyond.  That is because the Big East is contracturally locked in as an AQ league through the 2013 season.  There is no formal process for revoking that status beyond then, but that is an issue the BCS commissioners will deal with in the next eight to ten months, according to BCS Executive Director Bill Hancock.

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Ah, the vagaries of the BCS computer rankings.  If you look at Ken Massey's BCS rankings and go far enough down the list, you'll see that the 88th ranked team is that noted football power Arizona Western JC.  Yes, a junior college.  If you look at his regular rankings, which the BCS does not use because they include margin of victory, AWJC is 30th.

This has caused a little bit of outrage because it's so comically wrong, and while I understand that, I'm not as bothered by it as most people are.  A team like AWJC is so far removed from the oppponent, opponents, opponents, etc chain of any I-A school that it could probably be removed from the database entirely without affecting the I-A rankings.

That is also the reason a team like AWJC can be so high in the rankings.  It is so far removed from the I-A schools that its rating isn't impacted by them.

Programmers who want to rank just I-A schools need to find some way to deal with opponents outside of that class.  Some, like me, deal with it by treating all such opponents as genericly bad I-A teams.  Some rank a larger set of schools to be more specific.  Some ignore those games entirely (like the RPI).  Different strokes for different folks.  I don't get too worked up about it.  It's a reliativley minor problem for the BCS compared to the fact that they have no idea how these ratings work or if they are being calculated correctly.  Also, teams don't know how they are being judged.  That's because, except for Colley, the formulas are secret.
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LSU, Alabama and Boise State are off this week, but there are still several games of interest.

Clemson is at Georgia Tech, which looked like a lot bigger game a couple weeks ago when the Yellow Jackets were still undefeated.  Georgia Tech is still dangerous, and difficult to prepare for, so Clemson better be ready.

Baylor at Oklahoma State -- Brandon Weedon vs Robert Griffin III.  Alert the engineers!  The scoreboard is going to get a workout.

Oklahoma at Kansas State -- One of these teams is still undefeated.  I think the Wildcats picked a bad week to schedule Oklahoma.

Michigan State at Nebraska -- The Spartans just finished handing Michigan and Wisconsin their first losses in back-to-back weekends, and their reward is a trip to Lincoln.  Thanks, schedule makers!

Wisconsin at Ohio State -- The Badgers try to bounce back from the loss to Michigan State last week and stay in the hunt in the Legendary Leaders division, or something like that.

Stanford at USC -- The Trojans just extinguished Notre Dame's BCS hopes last week, and now it hopes to kill off the Cardinal's national title aspirations.

Georgia vs Florida -- The World's Largest Cocktail Party usually leaves Georgia with a hangover.  Mark Richt was on one of the hottest seats to start the season, but now an East division title is a possiblity.  USC-East controls its own destiny there, but with Marcus Lattimore done for the season, the door could open for the Bulldogs.


Posted on: October 23, 2011 9:12 am
Edited on: October 23, 2011 5:17 pm
 

BCS projections, Oct. 22

The BCS projection has been updated this morning.  Check back with this blog post for changes as the day progresses.  Actual data will become available for Sagarin and both polls before the official release, and I will update the chart and this post when they do.

The top 25 of each component has been projected through games of Oct. 22 except:

Colley, Sagarin -- Actual ratings (1-120), through Oct. 22
Coaches, Harris polls -- Actual.

The projection shows teams 4-6 as Boise State, Clemson and Stanford and they are pretty tighly bunched together.  If the Cardinal are better loved than I project by the four computers, they could move up some.

Even more tightly bunched are teams 7-10, which are Oregon, Oklahoma, Kansas State and Arkansas.  They are only separated in the projection by .023, so it would not take much computer variance to shake up the order of those teams.

Posted on: October 21, 2011 6:28 pm
 

BCS games to watch

This week's BCS games to watch:

North Carolina at Clemson -- The Tigers have three of their final four on the road, so it is important for them to take care of business at home.

Oklahoma St at Missouri -- This is arguably the toughest game left for the Cowboys before their season-ending showdown with Oklahoma.  Baylor and Kansas St are on the schedule too, but those games are at home.

Wisconsin at Michigan St -- The Spartans are probably best equipped to defend the Badgers, but they will have to do it without suspended DE William Gholston.

Washington at Stanford -- I'm not a bettor, but I can't believe Stanford is a three-touchdown favorite.  Washington (5-1) has played well behind QB Keith Price.  The Huskies almost took down Nebraska in Lincoln.

Auburn at LSU -- No Honey Badger.  No Spencer Ware.  So, LSU will be shorthanded.  This could be a dangerous spot for the Bayou Bengals.

USC at Notre Dame -- No BCS impact for the Trojans.  They are not eligible for the post-season.  However, they can all but end their rivals' chances of getting to the BCS with an upset in South Bend.
Posted on: October 16, 2011 10:02 am
Edited on: October 16, 2011 9:14 pm
 

First BCS Coming Today

The first official release of the BCS is now out.  LSU did a little better in the computers that I expected, and Oklahoma slightly worse.  As a result, LSU is at the top of the rankings by a whopping .0003 over Alabama.

Oklahoma is third, and archrival Oklahoma State is fourth.  The Cowboys, as expected, are the top-rated team in the computers.

Wisconsin is only 11th in the computers, and despite being fourth in both polls, the Badgers come in sixth overall.

Stanford is also suffering in the computer rankings, but the Harris voters are also underwhelmed by the Cardinal.  That has allowed Clemson to sneak ahead of them for the seventh spot.

Oh, did I forget Boise State?  I guess I'm just used to them always being there now.  The Broncos are fifth overall.

We aren't used to seeing Houston.  You have to look pretty far down the list to find the Cougars.  They start out at No. 19.

The only other major undefeated team is Kansas State, and the Wildcats check in at No. 11, behind one-loss teams Arkansas and Oregon.

With so many undefeated teams, you'll see a lot of folks jumping on the panic button with both feet, but these things have a way of working themselves out.  The three Big 12 teams will play each other.  LSU and Alabama meet in a few weeks.  Everyone has tough games left.  It's unusual to have more than two AQ unbeatens at the end of the year.

You can see the rankings for all 120 teams here,  At this time, Wolfe and Massey have not released their complete rankings.  When they do, the chart will get updated, and I will update this post as well.


Posted on: October 13, 2011 9:40 am
Edited on: October 13, 2011 3:53 pm
 

BCS Too

Those of you who are used to coming to this blog for basketball, you will have some company.  This is the new home for my football thoughts as well.

I'll have BCS analysis here (and whatever else falls out of my brain) a few times a week, or more as news dictates.  You can also find my bowl projections and 1-120 computer ranking now.

So, here is a quck look at the BCS games of the week.

Virginia Tech at Wake Forest -- The Demon Deacons are 3-0 in the league -- who would have thought that? -- but they are still an underdog to the Hokies

Oklahoma St at Texas -- The Cowboys figure to get a fight from what should be an angry Longhorn squad.

Kansas St at Texas Tech -- The Wildcats are undefeated and one of the pleasant surprises of the early going.  They will have their hands full with a high-powered Red Raider offense.

Michigan at Michigan St -- I have taken a lot of heat (although less lately) for having Michigan in projected to a BCS bowl since the preseason.  I never thought they would win the league though, and this is a place they may stub their toes.

Ohio St at Illinois -- Illinois may be on upset alert, but Ohio St is on "wheels coming off the season" alert.  The Buckeyes suffered a heartbreaking loss last week, and they don't know what they will get from QB Braxton Miller this week.  Miller was clearly the more effective of the Buckeyes' two signal callers last week.

Arizona St at Oregon -- Both teams are undefeated in the Pac 12, and while this is a cross-division game, it could still be important as the division races go on.



Posted on: March 11, 2011 6:49 am
Edited on: March 11, 2011 6:51 am
 

The Battle for the Top Seeds

by Jerry Palm

Pittsburgh's loss to Connecticut in the Big East tournament on Thursday has opened up the battle for the last two spots on the top line of the bracket a little bit (we'll assume Ohio State and Kansas are safe).

Keep in mind though that Pitt lost to UConn, not South Florida.  The Huskies are a top 4 seed.  The profiles of Pitt and Notre Dame, a winner over Cincinnati on Thursday.  At the moment, I have the Irish ahead, but they may have to win on Saturday to stay there.

Meanwhile, waiting in the wings is Duke, which doesn't have near the quality of wins of the Big East schools.  Their best wins are North Carolina and Temple, both at home, and Kansas State in Kansas City.  It's hard to think of Duke catching either without an ACC tournament win, including beating the Tar Heels in the final.

San Diego State is still sitting there also, with just the two losses to full-strength BYU.  If they win the Mountain West tournament, they might get consideration as well.  Again though, the lack of quality wins could be a problem.  The Aztecs best would be, UNLV three times, twice on the road, including today, plus maybe depleted BYU.

Syracuse, Purdue, and Wisconsin could possibly make a run as well.  The Orange could get a crack at Notre Dame themselves.  If Purdue or Wisconsin won the Big Ten tournament, beating Ohio State on Sunday, they might have a case, but would probably need a fair amount of help.


See complete Bracketology coverage here.
Posted on: March 10, 2011 11:23 am
 

Hoops As Far As the Eye Can See

by Jerry Palm

Today brings a festival of hoops with a lot of important games, most of which involve teams feeling very bubbly.

Oklahoma State's at-large hopes are hanging by a thread, but the Cowboys can make a big splash today by knocking off No. 1 seed Kansas in the Big 12 tournament quarterfinals.  Yesterday, they eliminated Nebraska from any at-large consideration in the opening round.

Colorado survived a scare against Iowa State to keep in the hunt for as well.  They take on Kansas State today, looking to beat the Wildcats for a third time.  They probably need to.

In the ACC, Boston College and Virginia Tech get underway hoping to avoid a potentially fatal bad loss. The Eagles play Wake Forest, while the Hokies will take on Georgia Tech.

Michigan State and Penn State are in the same boat.  Those teams are each three games over .500, and that record might be hard for the committee to swallow, regardless of their schedules.  A loss today to a Big Ten bottom-feeder would probably do them in.

Tennessee and Georgia also face league also-rans in the opening round of the SEC tournament.  Again, avoiding a bad loss at this point is crucial to their chances.

If Marquette hasn't already punched their ticket, they certainly can with a win over Louisville today in the 15th round of the Big East tournament.  Or something like that.  I lose count.

One of the more interesting conference tournaments gets going in earnest today in Las Vegas.  There is a lot at stake in the Mountain West.  Colorado State and New Mexico play in the 4-5 game.  Both teams have at-large hopes, but each might need to beat BYU to make that happen.  That won't be possible for the loser.

The Cougars will spend the weekend trying to prove to the committee that they are still worthy of a high seed after the loss of Brandon Davies.  They open with last-place TCU today.

San Diego State still has just two losses this season, both to BYU, and might have a shot at a No. 1 seed if they can run the table this weekend and get some help.

And finally, Washington gets a third shot at in-state rival Washington State.  The Cougars swept the season series, and welcome Klay Thompson back to the lineup after a one-game suspension.  Washington lost three of its last four Pac 10 games, including home games to WSU and USC.

Below, Lauren Shehadi and I talk some more bubble.


Posted on: March 1, 2011 12:51 pm
Edited on: March 1, 2011 6:09 pm
 

Mar. 1 Bracket - Welcome to the Madness

by Jerry Palm

There has been another change at the top of the bracket this week as the top of the field continues to play its way backwards.  BYU takes over for San Diego State on the top line for now, but may have to win out to keep it.

Of course, other contenders continue to fall away.  Texas once looked like a strong candidate for a top seed, but has lost twice since Friday's bracket.  They blew a 22-point lead at Colorado on Saturday, then Kansas State came back on them at home Monday night (although from not nearly as large a hole).  Combine that with the loss at Nebraska the previous week and it looks like the Longhorns are trying to play the whole middle of the Big 12 into the field.  That's good news for Baylor, who plays them this weekend.

The result is that the Longhorns find themselves as a 3-seed today, while Notre Dame moves up to the second line.  Both the Irish and red-hot Purdue have chances to challenge for top seeds, but probably need to win out and get help.

Meanwhile, Kansas State has won five in a row, including it's three biggest wins of the year, and has played itself right off the bubble.

Virginia Tech also picked up its biggest win so far when it beat Duke on Saturday.  Despite the screaming of the TV commentators that the Hokies are now a lock, that's not true.  They can't go on a three-game losing streak from here and expect to get in.

Arizona had a rough week in LA, losing to both USC and UCLA, and dropping into a tie with the Bruins for first place in the Pac 10.  The Wildcats have done little of substance away from home.  Their only top 50 RPI wins came over UCLA and Washington, both in Tucson.  Poll voters still love them for their gaudy record, but they look like a middle of the bracket team.

I get a lot of question about team's selection or seeding that go something like this "My team is ahead of this other team in the conference standings, so why are they seeded lower?"

The answer is that conference standings (and conference record by itself) are not at all relevant to the selection and seeding process.  Conference standings don't matter in part because so many leagues play unbalanced schedules.  Seriously -- is there anything less meaningful than the Big East standings?  And the other thing about conference performance is that it is only about two-thirds of a team's entire profile, and teams are judged on their entire body of work, not just conference play.

So, I have Old Dominion ahead of George Mason in the bracket because the Monarchs' non-conference performance makes up for a two-game deficit in the Colonial standings.  They have a non-conference wins over Xavier, Richmond, Clemson and Cleveland State.   Mason's only non-conference win of any substance came over Harvard at home.  In fact, Mason's best away-from-home win of the season came at VCU.   ODU beat both Xavier and Clemson on neutral courts.  So, I see a slight overall edge to ODU.

The extreme case of this is Alabama, which is 11-3 in the SEC at the moment and has clinched the West division title, but still isn't close to an at-large bid.  Their non-conference performance was so bad that a gaudy league record hasn't been able to wipe it away.  Of course, it doesn't help that the rest of the West stinks and that accounts for most of the Tide's conference schedule.

I'll have more in the Bubble Watch later today.

See complete Bracketology coverage here.



 
 
 
 
The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com