Tag:Ohio State
Posted on: January 27, 2011 1:51 pm
Edited on: January 27, 2011 1:52 pm
 

The States of Ohio and San Diego

by Jerry Palm

So, no sooner do I go and write that nobody has separated themselves from the rest of the pack at the top of the bracket , then Ohio State beats Purdue 87-64 in a game that wasn't as close as the score would indicate.  I felt going into that game that even if the Buckeyes lost, they would still be a No. 1 seed in the next bracket, perhaps even still the overall No. 1.  After that beatdown, they are the team that has stepped forward and staked claim to that seed in March as well.  Barring injury, there's no realistic reason to think Ohio State won't be on the top line on selection Sunday.

San Diego State lost last night to BYU 71-58 in the lastest episode of The Jimmer Show.  That game was acutally closer than the score would indicate, but it knocked the Aztecs from the ranks of the unbeaten, leaving only the Buckeyes.  It also likely knocked them from the top line of the bracket, and in fact, behind BYU on the S-Curve (the 1-68 ranking of teams in the tournament).

I realize Syracuse isn't a state (OK, neither is San Diego -- I studied math, not geography), but it would be wrong to ignore the slump the Orange find themselves in at the moment.  They are sliding fast down the brackt with every home loss.  They're at Marquette this weekend and at UConn after that.  That's not exactly what you'd call a slump-busting schedule.  Too many more losses and we'll soon be comparing them to Texas from last year.


Posted on: January 1, 2011 10:53 am
Edited on: January 1, 2011 9:54 pm
 

Undefeated, but are they worthy?

by Jerry Palm

There are still seven undefeated teams in division I-A as we enter 2011, but two of them are considered longshots by most to even make the NCAA tournament.

UCF is intriguing.  They are actually in the top 20 of the RPI and even ahead of Ohio State, but as they enter Conference USA play, that number has likely peaked.  The Knights played an average non-conference schedule that has one sure quality win -- over Florida.  They also beat Miami and South Florida.

Many people dismiss them because they figure that Memphis is still the overwhelming team to beat in the league, but I think they have set themselves up for a possbile at-large bid if they can perform well in the league.

Cincinnati, which is 14-0 and has two Big East wins already, is way down at 69th in the RPI this morning.  That's a stunning number.  I've been tracking RPI since 1993-94 and could not find a 14-0 team that far down.  The last undefeated team on New Year's Day that far down in the rankings was Texas A&M in 2006 (95th at 10-0).

You have to play a pretty wretched schedule to be 69th at 14-0.  The Bearcats played the 10th worst non-conference schedule, and they played most of those games at home.  So far, they have played only one RPI top 100 team (No. 62 Dayton) and just six that rank better than 250th.

When you play a schedule like that, you are basically saying that you intend to make your case for the tournament in conference.  That means not just muddling through, but doing very well.  Cincinnati probably needs at least 12 wins, and even that may not do it for them.  They cannot afford to be anywhere near the bottom of the at-large pool with a non-conference schedule that bad.


Posted on: December 20, 2010 7:50 am
Edited on: December 21, 2010 12:02 am
 

RPI Stability

by Jerry Palm

Since the RPI is a rating that has no preseason bias -- everyone starts at zero and builds from there -- early season numbers can be a bit, shall we say, counterintuitive.

For example, teams like Cleveland State, Boston College, Miami and Southern Miss are in the top 25 of the RPI, but are not likely to be getting too many votes in the polls.

Ohio State, which looks like one of the few teams capable of challenging Duke, sits at No. 10 this morning.  The Dukies themselves only rank fourth.

Baylor will almost certainly be the lowest rated RPI team among the top 25 that comes out later today.  The Bears are 92nd after their loss to Gonzaga.

Purdue is barely in the top 50.  Michigan State is 61st.  Both will be in the top 20 of the polls.

That kind of thing is not unusual for big conference teams, which have the bulk of the better teams on their schedule in conference.  Part of that though is that some smaller conference schools that play very tough non-conference schedules don't look as good in the RPI now to the teams that played them as they will later on.

Oakland is a prime example of that.  The Grizzlies are the favorite to win the Summit, but are currently only 6-6 (0-4 in the Big Ten).  However, they are likely on their way to roughly 22 wins if they play as you'd expect, which will be a lot more helpful to their opponents' RPI ratings than their current 6-6 record is.

So, don't get too worked up about team RPI numbers yet.  The further we go along, the better and more stable it will get.

Conference RPI numbers are a little more reliable because they are heavily influenced by non-conference performance, and most of the non-conference schedule is in the books.



Posted on: December 9, 2010 9:20 pm
Edited on: December 9, 2010 10:22 pm
 

New blog, New bracket

Welcome to the Bracketology blog, a new blog here at CBSSports.com.  I'll be posting here mostly with regard to how some of the news may impact the tournament selection process, and try to answer as many questions as I can.

To celebrate, a new bracket projection has been posted .  We're barely a quarter of the way through the season, and have yet to get into conference play, so teams haven't really established much in terms of tournament resumes yet.  There is a lot of how good we think they are vs how accomplished they actually are.  Especially for the big schools, accomplishment tends to come much more in league than out.

Certainly though, there have been surprises.  Michigan St, a preseason top five team, is really struggling against better teams.  Connecticut, picked for around 10th in the Big East, is now in the top 10 nationally.

I went ahead and put every undefeated team in the bracket, even Cincinnati and Northwestern, who still have pretty horrible RPIs for teams without losses.  Gonzaga and Butler are in the process of playing their way out of at-large consideration, if they need it.

Anyway, take this bracket for what an early December bracket is worth.  My brackets are always "as if the season ended today."  I can pretty much guarantee the bracket will be very different in March.

At least Ohio St didn't make this first in-season bracket look totally stupid tonight, but they sure gave it a good try.



 
 
 
 
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