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Tag:Robert Griffin III
Posted on: October 12, 2012 10:01 pm
 

NFL '12 Cherry Picks Wk-6

Stock Slide in Packerland

Life can turn on a dime. One day you’re on top a’ the world, feeling “eight-feet tall (J. Garfield)” the next day you’re flat on your back, staring-up & hoping someone got the license of the truck that just ran you over.

That’s how the Green Bay Packers must be feeling about now. This time last year they’re reigning champs, working on perfection and making mince-meat out of opponents. The dynasty word is being bantered about, their nemesis to the West is a mess and Favre’s ghost seems pretty well exercised. Then along come the Chiefs.

KC looked harmless enough on the schedule but when it was over, the stunned & beaten Packers were…different. First came the early playoff exit (Giants), then the stumble to start 2012 (49ers) and shockers in both Seattle & Indy. This isn’t just personnel & play-calling, though, another ball-carrier, pair of hands and some O-line help couldn’t hurt.

Packers lost something at Arrowhead that afternoon and haven’t gotten it back. They still own the Bears but, c‘mon. If you know what it is, give Mike a call. It’ll mean season-tickets for life. They’ll have to ‘remove’ somebody to get ‘em, but hey, gotta’ take one for the team, right? I jest, but maybe a good chuckle is just what these guys need.

Everyone gripes now & then but elite teams don’t whine (“I think the refs are out to get us this year” / anonymous Packer / MJSO / “Flags” / Nickel / 10-9). GB won’t get swagger back pouting on the referees. But not to worry Packer-backers, remember, this is the NFC North. Vikes are a year off, Bears tooth-long and the Lions are Mr. Suh’s team. Ouch. So buy Green Bay stock now as that next Packers’ win puts their ship back on course for a division they still own.

Luck Looking Pro, RG3 Not So

It’s been a wild & crazy NFL 2012 so far, with the referee thing, game-outcomes you might just as well use a dart-board to predict and no clear front-runner for MVP. As such, these two cats are still plenty topical.

If you took a poll today Rob would win going away. But polls are popularity contests. Casual fans, marketers & media just adore the ‘athletic’ or run-QB. He’s in vogue and RG3 rules the runway with run mechanics (42 / 241 yd / 4 RTD) and fine QB rating (101). Yawn. Like Andy, the Skins’ QB was thrown into the fire and gets big points for composure. Road wins (NO / TB) are no small matter, even in today’s wacky NFL.

But Luck’s clearly adapting quicker to his new surroundings, exhibiting more the mind-set needed to develop a comfort-level and management skills within the pocket (v GB), where the NFL QB directs the action. And now is exactly the time to take those on-field gambles and throw some caution to the wind in the maturation process, making Luck’s Comp % (54) and INTs (5) of low relevancy at this early stage in his NFL career.

Nothing I’ve seen so far indicates mentor Mike Shanahan has taken an active hand in molding RG3’s development and progression towards the changeover from college runner to pocket professional. Too bad for Rob, too bad for Mike and too bad for the Redskins.

Cherry Picks Wk-6

Dallas Cowboys (2-2) @ Baltimore Ravens (4-1) (10-14 / Fox 1:00)

Cowboys are rested and will get their 9-10 wins this season but none will come in Maryland. Ravens’ Joe Flacco & Ray Lewis were feeling superior until they watched the Browns' game film.  Gulp.  But they're not about to let Tony Romo rebound in crab-cake country. Baltimore wins.

Indianapolis Colts (2-2) @ New York Jets (2-3) ( CBS / 1:00)

“Surf’s Up.” Pacific players meet on the big stage, one feeling the heat with not much wiggle room, the other feeling love (this week) with room to spare. Jets nearly pull off the Wk-5 upset against everybody’s darling Houston, so they can‘t be that far off, right? Right. Ryan gets his boys up, Sanchez matriculates like a USC QB should and Tebow’s talent agencies (WME / CAA) keep turning the screws. Jets win.

Buffalo Bills (2-3) @ Arizona Cardinals (4-1) (CBS / 4:05)

Sleeper GOTW. Everyone’s bailing on AZ, having already bailed on Bills, but both have potential and a win here is big boost. Cards’ D still stout (11) but low O-production (31). Big mysteries: how Arizona managed this long with no run game as Kolb is more a manager than matriculator, and why Bills’ Spiller is ball-poor. Both QBs played it safe in Wk 5 (0 / 1 INT) and got a FG, so expect more risk-taking. Team who establishes run-game wins the day. That's the Bills.

New York Giants (3-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (4-1) (Fox / 4:25)

Juggernaut Central. Forget prior loses & better records (ATL), whoever comes out on top in this one is NFC’s top-dog. 49ers should be defending NFC Champs but you’ve gotta’ give the G-Men their props as they did their Conference proud. Both franchises operate on similar principle: measured & balanced attack with respect for the art of tackling, most DBs excepted. Who wins? It’s a coin-flipper. Wife’s hunch (and mine) is Giants. Guess it‘s NYG.

Green Bay Packers (2-3) @ Houston Texans (5-0) (8:20 / NBC)

The book likes Houston. Me too, before they nearly lost it to an off-kilter Jets team. GB is better than their record but needs a complimentary run game, less reliance on big-play D and better protection (OL) for Rodgers. Most data says pick Texans but I don’t see Green Bay going 2-4. Packers find a way to win, keeping things topsy AND turvy in NFL 2012.

Steven Keys
NFL Hunch Line
Posted on: August 9, 2012 6:31 pm
 

RG3 and Decoding Shanahan

Go back to the year 1988. The Raiders are in Los Angeles, Tom Flores has been demoted upstairs by owner Al Davis and Denver assistant coach Mike Shanahan is hired by the silver & black for his first NFL head coaching job.

Now fast-forward…not too fast, just one and one-quarter seasons later. After finishing 7-9 amidst an on-going, internal clash of loyalties, a 1-3 start in ‘89 gives Davis cause to pull-the-plug on the Shanahan experiment and hand the reigns over to Raiders man Art Shell.

Not a very auspicious start to Mike’s head coaching career. But then, getting fired by Al Davis wasn’t all bad. Oddly enough, it could enhance your resume.

Well known for his hands-on style, Al’s rows with staff often put on public display traits in a coach highly-prized by GM on-lookers. Qualities like decisiveness, tenacity and just being one tough son-of-a-gun. And that’s what Mike looked like after getting the boot: a guy who could give as well as he got, and from the biggest got-guy in the NFL, Al Davis.

That’s no knock on the feisty owner. Though Al could be a thorn in your side if under his watch, for fans, excepting the City of Oakland from1982-‘94, he was a quasi-advocate, a counter-weight to the NFL’s old boy network who conduct business in golf-carts and brass-handled board rooms. And then, only Glenn Ford (Gilda), Sid Poitier (In the Heat of the Night) and Paul Newman (Cool Hand Luke) were cooler than Al Davis in his early days, surveying the action from the Raiders’ sideline in those steel-rimmed sunglasses.

To Golden Gate via Colorado

Mike landed back in Denver (‘90-91) but wore out his welcome fast when he got in the middle of a Reeves - Elway rift. On the outs, he took a job with George Seifert (’92-94). Like Foxborough today, San Francisco was the place to be for coaches on the rise. As architect of 49ers’ 49-23 blowout win in SB29 (SD), Mike’s reputation grew such that he was seen around the League as a football-genius-in-the-making and then a hot commodity.

Third Time Charm

Broncos just can’t kick the Shanahan habit and this time give Mike the head coach’s office. He sticks around for awhile (‘95-08), quickly makes good on his new rep, has Denver back in the big show and this time brings home Mr. Lombardi (’98-‘99). Adding to the euphoria was the fact that Denver’s SB32 win comes against fellow West Coast disciple Mike Holmgren and his history-heavy Green Bay squad (4-1).

Happy Trails Mr. Elway

The mood on Mike starts to change after Elway rides into the sunset (SB33 / Atlanta). As he never got Denver back on top, some have argued Elway was the difference-maker in their back-to-backs. Not a crazy notion given that coaches coach and players play. But keep in mind: 1) Dan Reeves was in the NFL for nearly 40 years, played or coached in five Super Bowls but was stymied in his three Denver visits with John under center; and 2) Shanahan guided post-Elway Denver to the post-season four times, including an AFC title game and averaged 9+ wins a season. Not too shabby.

Whether or not Mike Shanahan is a football genius in league with Paul Brown, Bill Walsh or Bill Belichick is debatable. At the very least he did have something special working at Mile High in the late 90s, special enough to someday get a bust in Canton.

Resurrecting Legacies

Question now is, does Shanahan still have the Midas touch, that special something that garnered two Super Bowl wins? And if he does, can he impart it to his Redskins’ team?

So far, his brief DC tenure suggests no and no. Though he gets props for parting ways with the bill-of-goods that was Al Haynesworth and the plucky but past-prime Donovan McNabb, his inability to make real progress in his two seasons in Washington might be sign he no longer translates to today’s NFL player.

No big revelation then, that his ability to facilitate draft-dandy Rob Griffin’s development is key, not just to the team’s but his own future as well. The early word in summer camp is that RG3 is a talented and willing student of the NFL game. Welcome news to Skins’ fans who are parched for victory champagne since the days of Joe Gibbs & Company.

A concern is that in his eagerness to make good and satisfy antsy fans, Mike succumbs to the trendy but flawed belief that the athletic, muscled, running QB is the quick cure-all for what ails an offense and provides the surest vehicle for getting to the promised land. The tremendous impacts of mercury men Cam Newton (6-10) and Tim Tebow (8-8) on their respective teams in 2011 have only given amplification to the theory.

Mike Shanahan has coached two of the finest QBs of the past 30 years in Steve Young and John Elway. Though both had a flair for scamper (and could cite footwork as their most famous feats (SY: 50+ dash vs Vikes (‘88) / JE: copter-run in SB32)), making it a key element in their modi operandi, both were first & foremost pocket-passers who could air it out and thread the needle whenever necessary, taking to flight as only a last resort.

As impactful as Cam and Tim were, upon closer inspection it’s easy to see why many observers believe there’s a cap on just how relevant a run-QB will be over the long term.

Tebow’s 2011 flies in the face of that tiresome phrase, ‘numbers never lie.’ In science, that may be true (excepting false-positives), but in sport, numbers can tell tall tales and in TT’s case they’re less than sincere. While his pass-stats were paltry, his fire and dedication to game-plan were triggers in Denver‘s mid-season turnaround.

But eventually those flames of emotion must be fed with stout statistics. That can mean numbers that are huge (Rodgers), first-rate (Eli) or simply smart stats (A. Smith / 17-5 ratio) that show you have the skill & savvy to manage the offense and then matriculate with regularity in all conditions (Tom, Eli & Peyton).

As for Cam, he showed a terrific capability for passing but a tendency to take-off in trouble (14TDs). That’s a tell and it’s just what defenders will eventually feast upon.

Then there’s Vick, the man who started the trend. His ‘athleticism,’ as run-QBs are cast, has made him a star but destined him to title-oblivion. Besides two big PS wins (’02 GB / ‘04 STL), Mike’s tenure is defined in two words: boredom (duel careers in GA) and frustration (injury). Only now are he and his handlers starting to see the fallacy of flash-QB: “He wants to and works really hard to overcome his instinct, when a little something goes wrong, to take off (Mudd / PI / CBS / 7-27).” Old dog, new tricks: habits do die hard.  No pun intended.

So there you have it, Mr. Shanahan. You can put Rob on the pocket-passer pathway, the only road leading to the Super Bowl, help box-up his college habits and train him to work in the business of football (NFL / CFL), or, ride his athleticism to 9 or 10 victories (someday) and watch the big game every February at home on the big-screen TV.

Steven Keys
 
 
 
 
The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com