takman_777

As we near the last of the pre-season games, we are all aware that the real season is about to begin in the NBA with the first play-off games getting closer every day.

It has been a fantastic season with huge deals and bad deals and no deals to alter the landscape on both sides of the country. We have seen new contenders on the scene as well as the usual suspects. here is my take on the season so far the anticipation of what might be.

We started the season with the Celtics making the blockbuster of the decade by acquiring Kevin Garnett for Al Jefferson, giving Paul Pierce a huge power game to work with, then acquiring Ray Allen for the back court and later adding Sam Cassells to anchor off the bench, this team has won 60 games or 80% of the games they have played this season... good for 1st overall and looking very tough as they are the #1 rated defense in the league and have been most of the season. Most seem to question not the talent level of this team but the lack of playoff experience. With former NBA MVP Kevin Garnett so close to his ring, i am pretty sure this team will roll to the Eastern Finals where they will be a very tough team to beat in a 7 game series. This team is more than 3 players as we have watched guys like Rajon Rondo step up and play the point with confidence and skill... a good solid guard who is efficient and getting better as he gains more playing time. a very solid bench offers support from James Posey, Glen Davis backing Kendrick Perkins and Scot Pollard there as well, this team is at least 10 players deep... and can roll all ten when needed. As far as i am concerned, this is the team to beat this year as i have not seen much wavering in this team even while Kevin was out earlier this year...

The Pistons offer us the best option in the East to the Celtics train. With a very solid and mature (read OLD) starting 5 with Rasheed Wallace, Chauncey Billups, Tayshaun Prince, Antonio McDyess, and Richard Hamilton, this team can play a scoring game or a slow half court game and are very good at both. they are 1 -2 against the Celtics with all three games having the teams at 90 points or less and only one game more than a 10 point game... and they were all exciting to watch!! yes, defensive ball games are usually very good to watch. this team is basically the same team that won it all a few years back and without the distraction that Ben Wallace was, team chemistry is excellent and confidence is very high... this team will be tough to beat but i think the Celtics will win the ECF only because they will have the extra home game. the bench offers us Jason Maxiel, Rodney Stuckey, Aaron Afflalo who could probably start on most teams in this league.. they don't lose much to 10 players as well... that will make them a tough match for the Celtics.

the Magic are the wild-card as i see it in the East.  With Dwight Howard in the middle, this team has the explosive inside game vital to playoff ball, and with Jameer Nelson developing into the true point and Rashard Lewis on the front end with Hedo Turkoglu and Maurice Evans shooting, this team can run with the best of them but often find it hard to close teams out.. but are on a 5 game win streak which bodes well for the play-off run if they can sustain this.

Other than the LeBron's in the Cavaliers, i don't see any of the other East teams with a chance this year. Wizards are still recovering from that horrible injury, the 76ers just aren't deep enough to challenge at this point.. the Raptors have been discussed as well, but can't play defense to beat the Hawks or the Bobcats. i can't see any of the bottom 5 teams making a lot of noise in the playoffs unless the LeBron's ALL play like LBJ they just don't have enough to win a second round series.

Out in the Wild Wild West we have some fantastic teams made up of young studs and some old guys blending styles and great coaching to offer us the shootout we all were looking for with 9 teams fighting for 8 spots. i will start with the 8 and 9 spots and work my way up.

As of today, the Warriors and the Nuggets are tied with 46 - 31 records so both have 5 games left. the Nuggets games are against the Clippers, Jazz, Rockets, Warriors and the Bobcats. Losing Sunday to the SuperSonics was a huge blow as you MUST beat teams below you at this point in the western race. Thursday's game AT Golden State will tell us if this team with 3 all-stars will get in... Imagine at the beginning of the year being told that you as a coach have Allen Iverson, Marcus Camby and Carmelo Anthony starting with Kenyon Martin and Anthony Carter, you will win more than 50 games or so and NOT make the playoffs by a game or 2. this team scores, but is not committed to Defense and as we all know, you can't win letting teams back into games because you can NEVER score enough points.

the Warriors were a surprise last year as Baron Davis was just starting to be heard of nightly and Don Nelson knew that Mavericks team as he built it. this season, they will will 50 games again with the Kings, Clippers, Suns, Nuggets and Sonics left to play, they should win at least 3 and could win 4 or all of them as they are the hungry team and the Suns don't need the wins... Monta Ellis, Steven Jackson, Andris Bierdrins score.... LOTS... but until they decide to play defense inside, they will struggle in the half court as they are small up front against teams like the west seems to be full of this season.. strong, large front courts.. Can the Warriors end up #8 and run the West this year? I don't think so as they West is much stronger and more aware of Nellie Ball this season.

in 7th right now are last seasons 67 game winners, the Dallas Mavericks. Dirk Nowitzki, and now with Jason Kidd and Josh Howard, Jason Terry and Eric Dampier, this team has balance it has needed seen as they rolled without Dirk last week and a new attitude that Kidd brings of a calm confidence that they have not had before... With Juwan Howard  and Brandon Bass off the bench this team is at least 8 deep and might be more. this team can make noise in the playoffs and will end up with 51 wins or so with 2 against the Sonics, as well as the Hornets, the Trail Blazers and the Jazz who can't seem to win on the road. though they are in 7th, they are only 6.5 games out of first so to say they are an underdog is not quite accurate. if i was the 2, i would not want to play these guys...

in 6th, we find the Suns - a team given very little respect on this board, which is a shame because they do play exciting basketball, and now with Shaquille O'Neal in the middle, can play very well in the half - court too. since the trade, this team has not fallen apart as predicted, has not stopped scoring as predicted, has won games because Shaq is still one of the BEST rebounders in the game - which is the biggest thing they were lacking, Amare Stoudemire has gone back to the 4 spot and is proving to be pretty much unstoppable most nights as predicted. Steve Nash has not had to take over games, though he can still do it dropping 35 the other game, but with Shaq passing like he used to, Steve's total has dropped as predicted which is fine, since they are still winning. this team has 5 games left against the Bobcats, the Spurs, the Rockets the Warriors and the Trail Blazers... i wonder who they pissed off in the office to have that killer of a schedule the last 2 weeks of the season... with 3 wins, they could still catch the top spot in the division but a Lakers -- Suns first round match looks very likely... that will be fun to watch!!

in 5th we have the Rockets - the team that was to collapse when Yao Ming went down. the heart of this team IS Tracy McGrady and for a large part of the year, it looked like he finally had the team to take him out of the first round... then Yao went down... did they fold? NO they won the next 11 games without him to clinch at least 5th place or so with chance to end up with 55 wins with games against the Nuggets, the Suns, the Sonics, AT the Jazz and the Clippers. they look very Solid with Rafer Alston playing his best ball and Shane Battier becoming the beast we thought he could. Dikembe Mutombo i think turns  65 and will qualify for seniors discount later this year, but looks great in the middle. the bench is the issue with the Rockets as they aren't very deep, maybe 7 players, this is where injuries could cost them a playoff series victory.

the Utah Jazz are in 4th place right now with 51 wins, but will probably win the NorthWest division while being it's sole play-off representitive. though they are great at home going 35 - 4 at home, they are not a road team and thus have a short life expectancy in the playoffs as you MUST win on the road to win... ask the Cavaliers about that last year's surprise run as well as the 8th seeded Warriors last year winning HUGE games on the road. the Jazz starters of Deron Williams Andrei Kirolenko, Carlos Boozer Memhet Okur and Ronnie Brewer play Jerry Sloan balance on offense and solid defense which is why they are seldom blown out. this team will have to overcome a lot of bad losses on the road this year to have success in the first round but should take the Rockets out.

In 3rd right now we have the Lakers who are proving quite resiliant through an array of injuries that had them thin up the middle again. with the acquisition of Pau Gasol, this team with Kobe Bryant, Lamar Odom Derick Fisher and Vladomir Radmanovic offers one of the most potent offenses in the league, but leaves them a bit weak on the defensive end of the floor. having a true point guard in Fisher and Jordan Farmer on the bench, this team moves the ball well and has adequate depth on the bench as we have seen them not lose much when Gasol went down... this team will be very hard to beat from the outside, but can be beat inside as they are a bit thin up front right now. But having Kobe is a great plus and this team MIGHT be able to beat the Suns this year... maybe...

in 2nd we find the team that was to be as extinct as the dodo bird this late in the season, the Spurs. everyone said they are too old, too slow, too fragile, too bland, boring, soft... you name it, they were called it. WHO knew the heart of this team was still beating. Tim Duncan again has brought his boring fundamental game to the top of the tight western conference with solid defense and an offense fueled by Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker, Michael Finley, and Fabricio Uberto - Bruce Bowen IS THE BEST DEFENDER in the game.. ask Kobe so anything he adds on offense is wonderful. this team has one of the greatest coaches in the history of the game in Popp and just keeps winning.

At the top of the heap right now, but only 1.5 games up, are the Hornets. with the Little Engine that Could named Chris Paul - who will probably win his 1st MVP this year - this team offers solid offense with Tyson Chandler and David West as well as Peja Stojakovic with a solid year from Morris Peterson - the Raps were foolish to let him go... - this team has beat teams they were not supposed to this year. the only question this team needs to answer is are they ready to play in the playoffs with what appears to be a very inexperienced team. i think after watching the style they play, this team will compete and make it to the finals.

so, what do i see going on in the playoffs... round by round, here it is

East

1) Celtics vs. 8) Hawks - Celtics play hard and sweep to rest for a week

2) Pistons vs. 7) Raptors - see above but say Pistons where is says Celtics

3) Magic vs. 6) 76ers - 6 games but Dwight is too much inside... Magic win

4) Cavaliers vs 5) Wizards - the Lebrons sweep

2nd round

1) Celtics vs. 4) Cavaliers - 5 games as the LeBrons win 1 at home to show he wants to stay there past 2010

2) Pistons vs 3) Magic - Dwight is not ready for this yet, Pistons in 6

Eastern Conference Final

1) Celtics vs. 2) Pistons - this will be a classic battle that we will talk about for years... Celtics just too strong to the 10th man, win in 7 as they will be home

Western Conference

1st Round

1) Hornets vs 8) Warriors - no magic run this year, this team is too good for Nellie Ball - Hornets in 5

2) Spurs vs 7) Mavericks - this will be great ball to watch with the Spurs winning game 7

3) Lakers vs 6) Suns - do you think the Suns did this on purpose? Suns in 7th game upset with Shaq dropping 34 and grabbing 25 boards

4) Jazz vs 5) Rockets - Jazz win game 7 at home

2nd Round

1) Hornets vs 4) Jazz - i don't think they reseed!! but either way the Hornets beat either the Jazz or the Suns

2) Spurs vs 6) Suns - Spurs will beat either as well...

Western Conference Final

1) Hornets vs 2) Spurs - as much as i love the Hornets, they just can't beat the Spurs in 7 games.

NBA Championship Series

1) Celtics vs 2) Spurs - this will be an instant classic with drama, great ball, tough defense, David Stern's goldenchild team, all the stuff a finals is made of. these two teams are very hard to dispute as the top two teams in the league right now.

i say the Celtics will win game 7 at home, and will win at the line as Kevin will just be too much to handle.

that is my opinion. thanks for reading it.

here is my take on the East now

having had a bit of time to ponder, i have decided that i should do a list for the east as well... it might be a bit shorter

1) Celtics - i think they will end up first overall as Kevin Garnett gets healthy again this team will again roll through the East and dominate the west with it's stingy defense... Paul Pierce is flourishing with quality support from Ray Allen, Rajon Rondo and Kendrick Perkins... a very solid team that will be tough to beat in a 7 game series

2) Pistons - after a nice 9 game run they have dropped 2 they should have won... not worried though, this is a vetern team that is above average in every area and very solid defensively, i think they could beat the Celtics in a 7 game series only if they have home court... March 5th will be a huge step on that quest...

3) Raptors - after last night, i think this team could beat most teams but need too many things to work right for that to happen... With Chris Bosh playing like a beast and Jose Calderon commanding the floor - 1 turnover is sick!!! - this team can score outside at will.. what is missing is power on the inside... Kris Humphries had a decent game, but neither him nor Rasho Nasterovic can pound to the point of being a constant threat.. and as much as i like Andrea Bargnani, he needs to gain about 25 pounds to become a relevant player in this league...

4) Magic - they might have had an off night, but this team seems to rely too much on Dwight Howard to do everything... the lack of top quality guards will hurt this team.. and already has done so as this team had no consistant pressure from the back end.. Jameer Nelson is not a top level guard, but does have flashes... he is just too small to take on a large back court like the Raptors, Pistons or Celtics can floor.

5) Cavaliers - this team has a perpetual mvp candidate with LeBron James, but not much else... Daniel Gibson needs to be elevated beyond his years as this team needs another scorer.. if they can play defense like they did last year, they might challenge, but i am not sure the support is there for LBJ this year... this team really needed to make a move to challenge and haven't yet...

the rest don't have a shot as far as i am concerned and will lose in the first round to whomever they play...

so i see the Celtics and the Pistons going 7 games with the Pistons pounding out the victory at home... Celts win if it is in Boston...

so i will put Celtics and Lakers in the finals right now... if Shaq can play at even 60% the Suns might roll the west... but it will be a great second half..

It seems the boards are full of GM types who have varying degrees of love/hate for point guards. What i am offering today, is a place to discuss and debate the position, the prototype and the current players who fill the spot.

A point guard has been equated to the quarterback on the football team. The analogy has merit, but i am not sure it says enough as Mark Rypien owns a Super Bowl ring as a starter.... hmmmm...  a canadian by the way, but not what i would call a great qb. Joe Montana, Dan Marino.. most would consider them great. what they brought was an ability to get the most out of the talent they had and the talent around them... that is why the point guard is compared to the qb is some aspects.

for me, Bob Cousey, Oscar Robertson - MR. TRIPLE DOUBLE!! Magic Johnson, Dennis Johnson, John Stockton. John Havelichek. these guys defined the role as playmaker and floor general. they scored when needed they passed the ball to the finishers and made thier teams winners by virtue of elevating the play of the entire team. A point guard often plays the role of coach on the floor as he runs the offense and sets the defense up either on his own or from the bench direction. Those great Celtic teams in the 60's, 70's and 80's with strong guard play and of course SHOWTIME!!!

Today, the NBA has a wealth of wonderful point guards, perhaps no other era has had the depth now from team 1 to team 30 for point guards. for me, this is fantastic as it has elevated the game on many levels.

So what follows is my take on the top guards in the association that play the true point.

here is the statistical link for the cbs ranking... i will try to give my take on the ranking..

http://www.sportsline.com/nba/playe
rrankings/regularseason/PG

Player                                     Rating   Last Wk    Change   GP    MPG  PPG  RPG  APG   FG % FT %

1. Chris Paul, NO                  82.00   81.62         +0.38        39     37.3  21.0    3.8   10.4  48.8   88.6
 2. Baron Davis, GS               81.76   81.26         +0.50        44    39.2  22.3    4.9     8.1   42.7   74.5
 3. Steve Nash, PHO             77.38   76.25         +1.13         42    34.1  17.5    3.5   12.1  51.3   90.3
 4. Deron Williams, UTA       76.24   75.86         +0.38         42    36.6  19.3    3.0    9.2   51.7   78.2
5. Jason Kidd, NJ                  73.43   73.25         +0.18         41    37.3  11.3    8.3   10.6  36.6   81.1
6. Chauncey Billups,DET     72.94   72.44         +0.50         41    34.0  17.9    3.0    7.1   45.5   90.6
7. Mo Williams, MIL                72.50   71.97        +0.53          40   37.6  16.8    3.6    6.8   47.5   86.6
 8. Tony Parker, SA                 70.46   70.51         -0.05          37   34.8  19.6    3.0    6.2   49.1   72.5
 9. Jose Calderon, TOR        69.63    68.62        +1.01         42   31.3  12.1    3.2    8.5   51.4   91.9
10. Andre Miller, PHI              68.96    69.09         -0.13         43   36.1  16.2    3.9    6.1   48.1   72.4

man i wish the formatting thing worked.. i hate notepad!!

We see by the rankings, that Chris Paul statistically is the top rated point guard. So what does this actually mean? does this mean he is the BEST in the league right now? does it mean that HE should be the starting all star? or does this just mean that he puts up numbers?

he is the top rated point guard on the one of the top 5 teams in the league. his team has never played better, and they deserve the position they are in. Baron Davis, Steve Nash, Deron Williams, Jason Kidd.. what a list.. all these players should be and would be guys ANY team would want playing for them.  Toronto Raptors have a unique situation with T J Ford out, Jose has developed into a top 10 guard... no one saw that talent, but his numbers are showing the growth he has had this past season.... what a position to be in for Sam Mitchell.

So the question becomes, what factors do we place the most emphasis on to say that one guard is BEST or that much better than another to determine the over all best or worst guard. i have seen posts that tell me that Steve Nash is a horrible guard, yet his numbers have him in the top 3 AND he is the overall assist leader, which to me is the point of emphasis for a point guard. another is assist/turnover ratio, which has Jose Calderon as the top full time PG on the list. this has been a large reason why the Raptors win... it sure isn't interior defense!!!

the question of value becomes subjective then. i might look for certain aspects of talent, character, team play and each of these will have greater of lesser value than someone else. some value experience more than youth - the Steve Nash and Jason Kidd are the best group as oppossed to the Chris Paul, Baron Davis, Deron Williams crowd. then there are PG's on great teams that seem to benefit more from the team than they contribute - Tony Parker, some would put Steve Nash here as well and Chauncey Billups of the Pistons.

Bottom line, we have a large pool of very talented point guards, each seems to bring his own flavor to the mix.... which to me means that each team with develop a unique style and not all guards will thrive in all the styles. We know guys like Nash and Davis LOVE the run and gun, but guys like Parker and Paul can run, and can play out of a set with the same effectiveness. Jason Kidd - love the guy, but guards should not necessarily be a leading rebounder on your team... theirs a guy who needs a team in front of him... he would look fantastic in a Maverick's uniform!!! Another thought.... as with any debate, imagine what the team would be without the player... could you imagine how pathetic the Nets would be without Kidd?? or the Hawks without Johnson? we have all seen the Suns while Nash rests his back... and even the Raptors have no answer when Jose is out. But what about the Hornets without Paul? Would the fall off be as great? I suspect it would be at least as far... the Warriors without Davis struggle at best. And look at the stability that Derek Fisher has brought the Lakers in perhaps the least talked about signing in the past couple years... what a catch he was for them and we see Kobe realize he doesn't need to run the show and they have responded as a team.

So what will it take to win a championship? how critical is guard play? well, last year we saw Tony Parker light up the Caveliers from the guard spot as they had no real answer for his play. We have watched Dwayne Wade light up the finals a couple years ago and lead the Heat to the promised land... he is not playing well despite his numbers as he has no one on that team he can work with ... sort of like Kobe .. having to do it all himself.. great numbers on a lousy team!! Look how the Timberwolves struggle without thier man Randy Foye... hard to watch... but they have enough to beat a sleeping Suns team..... go figure...

Let's not forget about the up-and-comers like Acie Law,  Mike Conley and Juan Carlos Navarro with the Grizzlies, Taurean Green, and of course, Rajon Rondo with the Celtics... all with bright futures, some needing a lot of work, others in a groove at this point... the future will of course bring us more young guards to watch excel at their craft.

thanks for stopping by and please feel free to leave your thoughts

Welcome to my world of ball.

What a season we have had so far!! We have two teams roll through the East with ease and 4 teams in the West that could be a threat to win it all.

In the East we have watched the Pistons and the Celtics roll over teams from both conferences, yet lose a few games they should not. The Wizards without Agent Zero have discovered DEFENSE works and have shut down the Celtics 2 games in a row. We have seen the Pistons lose to the Knicks. No comment necessary on that one I hope...

In the West we have a great race developing as the top 8 delight in beating each other up!! Watching the Kings hang around the Mavericks and win at the buzzer was fun to watch as they scrapped their way into a lead, lost it, but fought back to win... Well done. I guess in the West the saying "any given night" holds true. The Spurs have not woken up yet and when they do, they will be tough to beat again. The Suns and the Warriors are still convinced that offense will be enough... but we all know better.

Watching the young talent like Dwight Howard explode onto the scene has been great, the future looks good as the association morphs into a league with athletic big men not afraid to bang inside, but willing to step out and be a threat facing the hoop as well.

I hope this blog catches the interest of many who love basketball and facilitates discussion about issues and observations on our great sport.

Have a great day!

WELL DONE CBS!!