Tartans

Washington Nationals - Trade away Dmitri Young and/or Nick Johnson, Find trade partners for Chad Cordero and Jon Rauch, Pray for John Patterson’s health.

The Nats were one of my favorite off season stories to watch, since they finally appear to have a sense of direction. They acquired Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes in trades that could both potentially end up as steals for the Nationals. With Austin Keans and Wily Mo Pena, they actually will have a decent, young outfield in 2008. I fully expect Ryan Zimmerman to have a bounce-back year, if not a brake out year. A few more young prospects and the Nats may actually be in business. They must know that they have no shot in the immediate future, and I love that they've begun to create something that could bear fruit in a few years.

With that in mind, I'm surprised that no one is yet to offer something that convinced Jim Bowden to trade away both Chad Cordero and Jon Rauch. Those two are prime candidates to used as bait to acquire some B-level young pitching. I also do wonder what the team intends on doing once Nick Johnson returns. Neither he nor Dmitri Young are really capable of playing elsewhere, so I assume at least one of them will have to go.

I also think that one issue that is getting overlooked is the health status of John Patterson, who was clearly not right the past two seasons. But back in 2005, he looked to be “top-of-the-rotation” material, sporting a 3.13 ERA along with a 8.7 K/9 IP over 198 1/3 innings. It’s most likely asking far too much to think he can immediate return to those numbers following surgery on his pitching arm back in September, but a glimpse of that former self should give hope to the future of Nationals pitching.

The Nationals are finally beginning to rebuild. They still have a long way to go, but are heading in the right direction.

Philadelphia Phillies - RH Bat, Starter not named Adam Eaton. Relief Pitching

And I'm back in reality. The 2007 NL East Champs (it pains me to say that) should have no problems scoring runs in the coming season. They led the National League in runs scored (2nd in MLB) and the lineup remains largely intact. While there is no such thing as a sure thing, the big three of Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and (ahem) MVP Jimmy Rollins come close. And Pat Burrell will continue to be denied his just praise by the Phillies fan base. The only real change in the lineup comes in the form of Geoff Jenkins, who will most likely get the bulk of the time in RF, while Shane Victorino moves to Center to replace the departed Aaron Rowand. I was a bit surprised by the Jenkins deal, as I thought that the Phils were already loaded with hitters capable of hitting from the left side. Howard, Utley, Greg Dobbs, Rollins, Victorino, and now Jenkins are all either lefty or switch hitters, leaving only Carlos Ruiz and Pat Burrell hitting from the right side during most games. Jayson Werth should see some time in lieu of Jenkins against lefty pitching, but I do wonder if they should get an additional rightly capable of swinging the bat.

I do have to admire the Phillies for obtaining Brad Lidge from Houston on the cheap. This has of course allowed the team to move Brett Myers back into the rotation, and he and Cole Hamels should be a formidable duo atop the rotation. However, much like Atlanta, the rest of the rotation needs work. There are mixed feelings on Kyle Kendrick. So far in his brief MLB career, he hasn't induced nearly enough ground balls (1.55 GB/FB ratio) to make up for the fact that he strikes out far too few (3.8 K/9 IP. 3.8!!!) . His peripheral stats project him as someone who should have an ERA in the mid-to-high-fours. I do expect Jamie Moyer to be slightly better than he was in 2007, but this does assume that his magic anti-aging powder was not discontinued. Plus, Moyer had an ERA over 5 last year, so “slightly better” in this context doesn't have much weight. But compared to Adam Eaton, I'll take Kendrick and Moyer any day. Here’s a general rule of thumb: bringing an extreme fly ball pitcher into an extreme home run hitters’ park is generally a bad idea. Just think Philly fans, only two more years and $16.135 million to go! At this point, Chad Durbin would most likely be the safer option.
While I still have faith that Brad Lidge can be a fine closer, I do wonder about this team’s bullpen. Tom Gordon (can we stop calling him Flash now?) is no longer reliable, and they have no viable lefty option after J.C. Romero. Will someone step up?

New York Mets - A Quick Start, Ace Pitcher, Let Youth Develop

First let me start off by saying that again "Let the youth develop". Well, there wasn't much that the New York Mets needed to do. After all, this is the virtually same team that cruised into the postseason, and into the NLCS in 2006. In 2007 they maintained a seven game lead heading into mid-September over the Philadelphia Phillies, and went on to choke and make history in a negative way. Yes the Mets failed to hang onto their huge lead over the last three weeks of the 2007 season. For the third year in a row the 2008 Mets will be almost a carbon copy from the last two years.

I think it’s highly important that the Mets get off to a strong start. If they falter early on, the NY media will be absolutely relentless. Of course, the only way they can really silence doubters would be if they could build a lead going into September and maintain it this time around. But a good April will spare the team from having to read about “the collapse” to the point where they have to swear off reading anything for all of eternity.
Additionally, sometime before Opening Day, the Mets, Yankees, Red Sox and Twins need to piss or get off the can when it comes to Johan Santana. Despite Pedro Martinez’s successful return towards the end of last season, the Mets still lack someone they can call their ace. Oliver Perez took a couple steps forward in 2007 but he’s still a box of chocolates. John Maine also showed improvement, but he must continue to limit walks and home runs. Neither of them can yet be considered as more than mid-rotation arms with some room to grow. Pedro should no longer be considered an “ace pitcher” since we have no idea if he can sustain himself over 100+ innings, let alone 200. IF the Mets end up with Santana, this will allow the team to potentially put Orlando Hernandez in the bullpen, which in my mind would be ideal as it allows the Mets to not rely on Jorge Sosa to do much of anything.
Lastly, this isn't necessarily something they need in 2008, but for the sake of 2009 and beyond, I'd like to see the Mets have a better organizational philosophy when it comes to managing their younger players. As a franchise, the Mets have historically rushed their prospects to the big leagues and 2007 was no exception. Carlos Gomez has the talent to be sure, but had no business playing on a team that needed to win every game possible to make the playoffs. Both Mike Pelfrey and Phil Humber were not considered “Major League ready” when they made their respective debuts either.
Of course, this is a total moot point if Johan Santana becomes a Met. Last I heard, the Twins were actually asking the Mets to include the entire minor league system! Lets Go Mets.

Florida Marlins - The Ability to Stop the Arbitration Clock, pitching, pitching, third baseman, pitching, and to either get a new stadium or relocate.
We knew going into the off season that the Florida Marlins had to do something. Two of their most recognizable players, Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, were approaching arbitration and were going to get mighty expensive. But they surprised everyone by trading both of these guys away in the same deal.
But the clock now starts again for the Marlins and herein lies a potential problem. Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla, Jeremy Hermida, Mike Jacobs, Scott Olson, Cody Ross, and Josh Willingham have all completed their second year of MLB-service. Players can become arbitration eligible after three.
Problem.
Another interesting subplot to the current Marlins team is how far their pitching has fallen over the past year. Dontrelle Willis was supposed to be a superstar. Never happened - at least not in Florida. Josh Johnson was supposed to be his trusty sidekick. He’s out the entire year most likely, following Tommy John surgery. Scott Olsen was supposed to be the great accompaniment to Willis and Johnson who would also get into fights with Miguel Cabrera. Instead, Olsen was the guy with a 5.81 ERA who would also get into fights with Sergio Mitre. And Anibal Sanchez was Mr. Perfect Game. He spent most of the year in the minors. It really wasn't that long ago that the young Marlins staff looked like the future of MLB.
Another thing they need to get sorted is their third base situation. Alfredo Amezega, Jose Castillo, and Jorge Cantu look to battle it out for the starting gig in spring training.
It’s not all bleak, however. The Marlins did get two top shelf prospects from Detroit in that Cabrera-Willis deal. Both Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller will get the chance to prove themselves at some point in 2008.
Okay now on to the stadium issue. Since the Florida Marlins inception in April 1993, the team has played at Dolphin Stadium. The team has now been trying for nearly a decade to have a new ballpark constructed. Several plans have been developed, and negotiations with the City of Miami continued to fell through. In 2005 the Marlins started to explore the possibility of relocating. Their lease at Dolphin Stadium ends after the 2010 season.
The latest news has the Marlins and the city of Miami on the verge a new proposal, which Miami-Dade County Commission voted in favor for one of two deal. Finalization of these proposals will be decided this month. If thing don't fall through yet again the team will be renamed the Miami Marlins and open in April 2011.

Atlanta Braves - Healthy Mike Hampton, Healthy Mike Gonzalez, RH hitter off the bench, Hope that Andrew Jones’ defensive value was highly overstated.

With their recent acquisition of Mark Kotsay to patrol centerfield, the Atlanta starting lineup appears to be set. We can quibble with the top of the order a bit, as we're not quite sure how Yunel Escobar will perform in his first full year, but aside from that, it’s a more than solid crew. Chipper Jones had a very underrated 2007 campaign, Mark Teixeira gets his first fulls season in the National League, and Matt Diaz turned some heads as well, especially against lefties. Despite the absence of Andrew Jones - let’s face it, Jones wasn't that much of an offensive asset in 2007 anyhow - the Braves offense looks strong enough to duplicate their success from last year, when they scored 810 runs (3rd in NL). They could use another right-handed bat off the bench (no, Omar Infante doesn't count), however, as Scott Thorman, Brandon Jones, and Josh Anderson all bat from the left side.

However, Mark Kotsay himself will never be able to replace Andrew Jones, especially with the glove. And it’s the all-important preventing of runs that may pose to be a problem for the Atlanta Braves in 2008. Their top-two starters, John Smoltz and Tim Hudson have the ability to match up with pretty much anyone aside from the Arizona duo. After them, however, it’s completely a crap shoot. By the end of 2007, Tom Glavine had nothing to rely on aside from his famous change up, and even that was losing effectiveness since his fastball had dipped to the low 80s. I'm also not sold on Chuck James yet either, as his rather successful year was largely due to the defense behind him. The ultimate wild card, however, is the status of Mike Hampton. The far-too-often-injured lefty had yet another set back in his continued recovery from elbow surgery after straining a hamstring on a rehab assignment down in Mexico in November. The Braves did, however, have the foresight to gain some solid pitching depth, as Jair Jurrjens remains a viable option.

The Atlanta bullpen has some questions as well. I think Rafael Soriano will do just fine in the closer role, but who will bridge the gap? Can Peter Moylan duplicate his surprisingly effective (1.80 ERA over 90 IP) 2007 campaign? How effective will Mike Gonzalez be following Tommy John surgery and how soon can he return?

Moving forward, I'm interested in seeing how much of an impact Andrew Jones had on the Atlanta pitching staff. It’s been over a decade since the Braves had this to worry about, and although Kotsay has been a capable defender in the past, his recent back surgery and age (32) could affect the pitching quite a bit. Smoltz, Glavine, and James are all fly ball pitchers, and are the most likely to miss a top flight center fielder they could rely on.

There are two reasons why trading for Johan Santana is a terrible baseball move and an equally terrible business move.

The first is that Santana has only one year remaining on his contract. Why in the world would a baseball team give up many many years of cost controlled future talent for someone that they could simply wait one more season and then sign as a free agent?
The only possible reason for doing so would be if a team believed it wouldn't be able to compete with Boston and the New Yorks in the free agent market. In order to trade for Santana, his suitor would have to sign him for around 7 years and $150 million or Santana would void the trade. If a team can afford to trade for Santana, they can afford to bid for him in the free agent market.
The reality for all of his suitors, teams are left with weighing the idea of trading bunches of future and current talent for one extra year of a very good pitcher in decline. (I'll get to that in a minute.)
The second reason is that Johan Santana is 29 years old and in decline. Santana is a fantastic pitcher, and it’s possible that last season was an aberration, but considering the amount of money needed to sign him and the amount of players necessary to complete a trade, it would be a huge and potentially very costly gamble to bet on Santana. The smartest move is to assume a wait and see approach, and so far, all of Santana’s suitors have taken that approach.
He's not in decline you say! What makes the Santana issue confusing to some is that even in his worst season as a starting pitcher, Santana was very good. However, only an extremely foolish General Manager would overlook the direction Santana’s career took last season. Santana lost more games then he ever has in his career, but more importantly he posted his highest era, walked more batters per 9 innings, posted his lowest strike out to walk ratio, and allowed opposing batters to hit for their highest batting average, highest OBP, and higherest SLP against him since he become a full time starter in 2004. He also allowed only 3 less hits than his career high despite pitching 14 less innings and he allowed significantly more home runs.
Despite all of this, Santana is still very good. The numbers, however, act as a huge red flag in the eyes of general managers. Trading prospects for proven talent is often a good idea but the amount of young talent that must be sent away and the amount of money needed to sign Santana makes the proposition of a trade happening a truly unlikely one. Despite the urging of fans.