Posted on: July 9, 2010 12:36 pm
Mock drafts are fun, but they're never a perfect science. This point was proven Friday when I mocked with 11 of my Twitter followers (follow me @daverichard).
We realized something was up when we saw Andre Johnson go first overall, then Jason Witten in Round 3 and Jets DST in Round 5. All of those picks -- reaches in every regard -- were taken by someone with the ID kalebJORDAN.
What could I do? Stop the draft? Start another? Kick him out of the draft room? The reality is that in every league, there's a "wild card," an owner who doesn't think like the rest of the world and his picks always make the other owners laugh or whine. So I thought it would be a good idea to let the draft play out with kalebJORDAN making his picks.
Suffice to say, I typed "LOL kalebJORDAN" in the chat window quite a bit. Here are the results of our mock draft complete with the rationale behind my picks:
1 kalebJORDAN Johnson, Andre (WR HOU)
2 MOE_UNIT Johnson, Chris (RB TEN)
3 Wu-Tang Forever Peterson, Adrian (RB MIN)
4 Dominators Jones-Drew, Maurice (RB JAC)
5 Whippers Rice, Ray (RB BAL)
6 Bucs Turner, Michael (RB ATL)
7 Multiples Manning, Peyton (QB IND)
8 G.O.W. Gore, Frank (RB SF)
9 Bears Rodgers, Aaron (QB GB)
10 Dave Richard Jackson, Steven (RB STL)
11 dstnbldwn Moss, Randy (WR NE)
12 Huevos Rancheros Brees, Drew (QB NO)
My pick: Steven Jackson
Jackson might not be the most popular first-round pick, but he's an every-down back. That's a rarity in and of itself. The Rams also have a fairly easy schedule and not much else on offense to take the workload away from Jackson. The only issue with picking Jackson this year is getting a good third rusher to put in his place when/if he gets hurt. Landing him 10th overall is pretty good value.
I also considered: Drew Brees, DeAngelo Williams
13 Huevos Rancheros Williams, DeAngelo (RB CAR)
14 dstnbldwn Wayne, Reggie (WR IND)
15 Dave Richard Jackson, DeSean (WR PHI)
16 bears Mendenhall, Rashard (RB PIT)
17 G.O.W. Schaub, Matt (QB HOU)
18 Multiples Mathews, Ryan (RB SD)
19 Bucs Marshall, Brandon (WR MIA)
20 Whippers Austin, Miles (WR DAL)
21 Dominators White, Roddy (WR ATL)
22 Wu-Tang Forever Johnson, Calvin (WR DET)
23 MOE_UNIT Grant, Ryan (RB GB)
24 kalebJORDAN Brady, Tom (QB NE)
My pick: DeSean Jackson
You know I'm super-high on D-Jax this year. I think he's going to be phenomenal in a pass-aggressive Eagles offense. Plus it's his third year and he's motivated to land a big contract. He's the perfect storm of Fantasy wideouts.
I also considered: No one. Jackson was my guy all the way.
25 kalebJORDAN Witten, Jason (TE DAL)
26 MOE_UNIT Romo, Tony (QB DAL)
27 Wu-Tang Forever Fitzgerald, Larry (WR ARI)
28 Dominators Greene, Shonn (RB NYJ)
29 Whippers Rivers, Philip (QB SD)
30 Bucs Rice, Sidney (WR MIN)
31 Multiples Smith, Steve (WR NYG)
32 G.O.W. Addai, Joseph (RB IND)
33 bears Moreno, Knowshon (RB DEN)
34 Dave Richard Colston, Marques (WR NO)
35 dstnbldwn Benson, Cedric (RB CIN)
36 Huevos Rancheros Jennings, Greg (WR GB)
My pick: Marques Colston
I looked to lock up two elite receivers, and with a couple of surprises earlier in the round (notably Witten and Rivers going early), Colston fell into my lap. Should be the most productive wideout in New Orleans by a mile.
I also considered: No one.
37 Huevos Rancheros Boldin, Anquan (WR BAL)
38 dstnbldwn Smith, Steve (WR CAR)
39 Dave Richard Charles, Jamaal (RB KC)
40 bears Ochocinco, Chad (WR CIN)
41 G.O.W. Gates, Antonio (TE SD)
42 Multiples McCoy, LeSean (RB PHI)
43 Bucs Thomas, Pierre (RB NO)
44 Whippers Davis, Vernon (TE SF)
45 Dominators Favre, Brett (QB MIN)
46 Wu-Tang Forever Wells, Beanie (RB ARI)
47 MOE_UNIT Clark, Dallas (TE IND)
48 kalebJORDAN Brown, Ronnie (RB MIA)
My pick: Jamaal Charles
I consider this pick a steal as Charles has 1,200-yard, seven-touchdown potential and a guy I've seen drafted as high as late Round 2. After analyzing Thomas Jones a bit more this week, I like Charles' chances to keep playing strong and getting a lot of work in 2010.
I also considered: Pierre Thomas, Beanie Wells
49 kalebJORDAN Jets (DST NYJ)
50 MOE_UNIT Bowe, Dwayne (WR KC)
51 Wu-Tang Forever Ward, Hines (WR PIT)
52 Dominators Jackson, Vincent (WR SD)
53 Whippers Welker, Wes (WR NE)
54 Bucs Driver, Donald (WR GB)
55 Multiples Best, Jahvid (RB DET)
56 G.O.W. Harvin, Percy (WR MIN)
57 bears Sims-Walker, Mike (WR JAC)
58 Dave Richard Celek, Brent (TE PHI)
59 dstnbldwn Portis, Clinton (RB WAS)
60 Huevos Rancheros Finley, Jermichael (TE GB)
My pick: Brent Celek
This pick was based on the needs of the two guys drafting after me. I didn't have a huge desire for any of the quarterbacks left, the running backs left all looked the same and the receivers were good but neither of the owners picking after me really needed one. Celek would fill a void in my lineup and I wouldn't have to sweat getting a tight end later. Maybe a smidge of a reach, but I was confident he wouldn't come back to me for my next pick.
I also considered: Jonathan Stewart
61 Huevos Rancheros Stewart, Jonathan (RB CAR)
62 dstnbldwn Jacobs, Brandon (RB NYG)
63 Dave Richard Garcon, Pierre (WR IND)
64 bears Floyd, Malcom (WR SD)
65 G.O.W. Nicks, Hakeem (WR NYG)
66 Multiples Wallace, Mike (WR PIT)
67 Bucs Manning, Eli (QB NYG)
68 Whippers Forte, Matt (RB CHI)
69 Dominators Mason, Derrick (WR BAL)
70 Wu-Tang Forever Jones, Felix (RB DAL)
71 MOE_UNIT Crabtree, Michael (WR SF)
72 kalebJORDAN Flacco, Joe (QB BAL)
My pick: Pierre Garcon
My plan worked and the receiver I wanted the most fell into my lap. Garcon should go about here in drafts, and because I think he'll play a lot this season, my expectations are high. Best of all, he's my No. 3 receiver, so I don't have to rely on him a lot if things happen that change his Fantasy value.
I also considered: Michael Crabtree, Joe Flacco
73 kalebJORDAN Cowboys (DST DAL)
74 MOE_UNIT Williams, Cadillac (RB TB)
75 Wu-Tang Forever Kolb, Kevin (QB PHI)
76 Dominators Gonzalez, Tony (TE ATL)
77 Whippers Vikings (DST MIN)
78 Bucs Daniels, Owen (TE HOU)
79 Multiples Aromashodu, Devin (WR CHI)
80 G.O.W. Breaston, Steve (WR ARI)
81 bears Shiancoe, Visanthe (TE MIN)
82 Dave Richard Cutler, Jay (QB CHI)
83 dstnbldwn Ryan, Matt (QB ATL)
84 Huevos Rancheros Barber, Marion (RB DAL)
My pick: Jay Cutler
Awesome value, and another reason why waiting on a quarterback isn't such a bad idea. Cutler's arm mixed with Mike Martz's playbook should result in some epic passing stats. That might include a lot of interceptions, but I'll take the bad with the good in this case. I probably would not have gone this route had I not drafted Steven Jackson in Round 1.
I also considered: No one. I was going Cutler all the way.
85 Huevos Rancheros Maclin, Jeremy (WR PHI)
86 dstnbldwn Bush, Reggie (RB NO)
87 Dave Richard Collie, Austin (WR IND)
88 bears Meachem, Robert (WR NO)
89 G.O.W. Packers (DST GB)
90 Multiples Hardesty, Montario (RB CLE)
91 Bucs Ravens (DST BAL)
92 Whippers Moss, Santana (WR WAS)
93 Dominators Hartley, Garrett (K NO)
94 Wu-Tang Forever Bush, Michael (RB OAK)
95 MOE_UNIT 49ers (DST SF)
96 kalebJORDAN Holmes, Santonio (WR NYJ)
My pick: Austin Collie
I love him. If you've been listening to me or reading me this offseason you'd know this. I think he's going to be awesome, and with the receiver pool drying up faster than LeBron James jersey sales in Ohio, I had to take one more guy. Now I could platoon either of the Colts' receivers opposite Reggie Wayne all season long. And, Anthony Gonzalez can't possibly play in place of both of them, so I am completely locked in with a capable Colts wideout who won't see double coverage. Sweet!
I also considered: No one. Jeremy Maclin went two picks ahead, making my choice easier.
97 kalebJORDAN Bryant, Dez (WR DAL)
98 MOE_UNIT Tomlinson, LaDainian (RB NYJ)
99 Wu-Tang Forever Forsett, Justin (RB SEA)
100 Dominators Eagles (DST PHI)
101 Whippers Akers, David (K PHI)
102 Bucs Longwell, Ryan (K MIN)
103 Multiples Tate, Ben (RB HOU)
104 G.O.W. Crosby, Mason (K GB)
105 bears Spiller, C.J. (RB BUF)
106 Dave Richard Palmer, Carson (QB CIN)
107 dstnbldwn Miller, Zach (TE OAK)
108 Huevos Rancheros Steelers (DST PIT)
My pick: Carson Palmer
Nothing is promised with Cutler like it is (figuratively) with Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning or Drew Brees, so I needed a backup. I loved getting Palmer here because he has No. 1 quarterback potential. I'm fortunate he lasted this long, though I suppose I might have been able to wait one more round. In retrospect, I could have done better getting Thomas Jones here to back up Charles and then get Palmer.
I also considered: Thomas Jones
109 Huevos Rancheros Jones, Thomas (RB KC)
110 dstnbldwn Gostkowski, Stephen (K NE)
111 Dave Richard Bradshaw, Ahmad (RB NYG)
112 bears Slaton, Steve (RB HOU)
113 G.O.W. Hightower, Tim (RB ARI)
114 Multiples Houshmandzadeh, T.J. (WR SEA)
115 Bucs Jackson, Fred (RB BUF)
116 Whippers Gonzalez, Anthony (WR IND)
117 Dominators Taylor, Chester (RB CHI)
118 Wu-Tang Forever Berrian, Bernard (WR MIN)
119 MOE_UNIT Cotchery, Jerricho (WR NYJ)
120 kalebJORDAN Cooley, Chris (TE WAS)
My pick: Ahmad Bradshaw
Let the backup running back talent build begin! Bradshaw is on my short list of breakout candidates and felt that he was a good choice here. I also would have been happy with the other rushers available at this point, and they went right after Bradshaw did.
I also considered: Tim Hightower, Fred Jackson, Steve Slaton, Chester Taylor
121 kalebJORDAN McFadden, Darren (RB OAK)
122 MOE_UNIT Bironas, Rob (K TEN)
123 Wu-Tang Forever Carlson, John (TE SEA)
124 Dominators Maroney, Laurence (RB NE)
125 Whippers Harrison, Jerome (RB CLE)
126 Bucs McGahee, Willis (RB BAL)
127 Multiples McCluster, Dexter (WR KC)
128 G.O.W. Williams, Ricky (RB MIA)
129 bears Williams, Roy E. (WR DAL)
130 Dave Richard Brown, Donald (RB IND)
131 dstnbldwn Bears (DST CHI)
132 Huevos Rancheros Knox, Johnny (WR CHI)
My pick: Donald Brown
Another pick, another backup rusher. Simple as that.
I also considered: Dexter McCluster (snaked three picks before me -- blast!), Larry Johnson
133 Huevos Rancheros McNabb, Donovan (QB WAS)
134 dstnbldwn Smith, Kevin (RB DET)
135 Dave Richard Johnson, Larry (RB WAS)
136 bears Saints (DST NO)
137 G.O.W. Evans, Lee (WR BUF)
138 Multiples Winslow, Kellen (TE TB)
139 Bucs Smith, Alex (QB SF)
140 Whippers Sproles, Darren (RB SD)
141 Dominators Chambers, Chris (WR KC)
142 Wu-Tang Forever Henne, Chad (QB MIA)
143 MOE_UNIT Britt, Kenny (WR TEN)
144 kalebJORDAN Westbrook, Brian (RB PHI)
My pick: Larry Johnson
Effectively my 12th-round pick in every league. I think he could be a dynamo this season with the Redskins, even if he's just a part-time player. He seemingly is a lock for the final roster.
I also considered: No one. I was locked in here.
145 kalebJORDAN Hester, Devin (WR CHI)
146 MOE_UNIT Cassel, Matt (QB KC)
147 Wu-Tang Forever Chargers (DST SD)
148 Dominators Washington, Nate (WR TEN)
149 Whippers Bryant, Antonio (WR CIN)
150 Bucs Burleson, Nate (WR DET)
151 Multiples Giants (DST NYG)
152 G.O.W. Edwards, Braylon (WR NYJ)
153 bears Sanchez, Mark (QB NYJ)
154 Dave Richard Dolphins (DST MIA)
155 dstnbldwn Stafford, Matthew (QB DET)
156 Huevos Rancheros Thomas, Demaryius (WR DEN)
My pick: Dolphins DST
I needed a DST.
I also considered: Titans DST, Lawrence Tynes
157 Huevos Rancheros Kaeding, Nate (K SD)
158 dstnbldwn Roethlisberger, Ben (QB PIT)
159 Dave Richard Tynes, Lawrence (K NYG)
160 bears Vinatieri, Adam (K IND)
161 G.O.W. Jones, Julius (RB SEA)
162 Multiples Reed, Jeff (K PIT)
163 Bucs Walter, Kevin (WR HOU)
164 Whippers Bell, Mike (RB PHI)
165 Dominators Ward, Derrick (RB TB)
166 Wu-Tang Forever Rackers, Neil (K HOU)
167 MOE_UNIT Manningham, Mario (WR NYG)
168 kalebJORDAN Carpenter, Dan (K MIA)
My pick: Lawrence Tynes
I needed a kicker.
I also considered: Nate Kaeding
Posted on: April 22, 2010 3:23 pm
Earlier this week I posted my annual 20-minute mock draft , but on Thursday afternoon, just hours before the NFL draft kicked off, Jamey Eisenberg and I did an impromptu mock on Twitter, complete with guest picker Jermichael Finley of the Packers, and loads of comments from the Twitter world.
Here are the results along with the initials of who drafted whom:
1. STL: QB Sam Bradford (DR)
2. DET: DT Ndamukong Suh (JE)
3. TB: DT Gerald McCoy (DR)
4. WAS: OT Trent Williams (JE)
5. KC: OT Russell Okung (DR)
6. SEA: FS Eric Berry (JE)
7. CLE: QB Jimmy Clausen (DR)
8. OAK: OT Brian Bulaga (JE)
9. BUF: DT Dan Williams (DR)
10. JAC: DE Derrick Morgan (JE)
11. DEN: LB Rolando McClain (DR)
12. MIA: FS Earl Thomas (JE)
13. SF: RB C.J. Spiller (DR)
14. SEA: OT Anthony Davis (JE)
15. NYG: LB Brandon Graham (DR)
16. TEN: DE Jason Pierre-Paul (JE)
17. SF: DL Jared Odrick (DR)
18. PIT: C Maurkice Pouncey (JE)
19. ATL: CB Joe Haden (DR)
20. HOU: CB Kyle Wilson (JE)
21. CIN: OG Mike Iupati (DR)
22. NE: WR Dez Bryant (JE)
23. GB: LB Sergio Kindle (Jermichael Finley)
24. PHI: FS Taylor Mays (JE)
25. BAL: WR Demaryius Thomas (DR)
26. ARI: LB Sean Witherspoon (JE)
27. DAL: OT Charles Brown (DR)
28. SD: RB Ryan Mathews (JE)
29. NYJ: DE Everson Griffen (DR)
30. MIN: QB Tim Tebow (JE)
31. IND: LB Jerry Hughes (DR)
32. NO: OT Rodger Saffold (JE)
Who drafted the best? Me? Jamey? Jermichael? Let us know on Twitter (twitter.com/daverichard ; twitter.com/jameyeisenberg ; twitter.com/jermichaelf88 ) or just post here on CBSSports.com.
Posted on: April 20, 2010 12:21 pm
When it comes to mock drafts, I'm a novice. In 2005 I was the only guy who had Aaron Rodgers going to the 49ers No. 1 overall. Last year I had Brian Orakpo going to the Jaguars at No. 8 overall.
What did I know? Only that they'd be better players than the guys those teams actually drafted (so far anyway).
I've had my fair share of bombs, too. Brian Robiskie to the Giants at 29th overall last year , for one. Limas Sweed to Dallas at 22nd overall in 2008 for another . Check out my previous mocks if you want a good laugh.
But keep in mind that I don't have big boards or inside sources for a pretend draft, and keep in mind that I put myself on a timer: 20 minutes to make 32 picks. Why 20 minutes? Well, because the boss told me so, mainly. But really, how much time do people need to do this?
One more note: I draft as if I am the GM of the team picking, not as a writer showing favoritism nor picking players who I think the real GM will take. So, because of that, my mocks are entertaining but worthless. Just like almost everyone else's mocks.
Wind up the clock. Here we go:
1. St. Louis: Sam Bradford, QB
Best possible quarterback, major upside. Fills need with a quality talent. Get a WR for him in Round 2.
2. Detroit: Ndamukong Suh, DT
Jim Schwartz gets his newest version of Albert Haynesworth, Lions D-line becomes formidable.
3. Tampa Bay: Gerald McCoy, DT
Need meets talent.
4. Washington: Russell Okung, OT
Difference between him and Trent Williams? Okung seems most prepared to play left side.
5. Kansas City: Trent Williams, OT
Not that the Chiefs won't try Williams on that left side.
6. Seattle: Brian Bulaga, OT
They desperately need help up front.
7. Cleveland: Jimmy Clausen, QB
They're not going into the season with Delhomme and Wallace as their only QBs.
8. Oakland: Eric Berry, FS
Even the Raiders can't fumble this one. But if Clausen is there come Thursday ...
9. Buffalo: Anthony Davis, OT
Absolute nightmare situation for Buffalo. Clausen, Bulaga, Williams their primary targets in the draft. Defense seems fairly set as it is. I hate this pick like poison but can't pull the trigger on Spiller here.
10. Jacksonville: Earl Thomas, FS/CB
So long, Reggie Nelson.
11. Denver: Rolando McClain, LB
Run-stuffing inside linebacker.
12. Miami: Sergio Kindle, LB
The Dolphins might find a D-tackle later -- they won't find a pass rusher like this later.
13. San Francisco: C.J. Spiller, RB
49ers win big: They get a Top-10 talent to slide to them and they nab him ahead of the Seahawks, who reportedly covet him. Bad for Fantasy because of sharing scenario with Gore, obviously.
14. Seattle: Derrick Morgan, DE
Pass rush in Seattle is super weak.
15. New York Giants: Dan Williams, DT
Giants need to invest in a defensive tackle for the future of their pass rush.
16. Tennessee: Jason Pierre-Paul, DE
Like the Seahawks, the Titans need a pass rush developer. I really like Pierre-Paul's long-term potential.
17. San Francisco: Jared Odrick, DT
Excellent 3-4 defensive lineman.
18. Pittsburgh: Maurkice Pouncey, C
Running short on time ...
19. Atlanta: Brandon Graham, LB
20. Houston: Kyle Wilson, CB
21. Cincinnati: Mike Iupati, G
22. New England: Joe Haden, CB
Had to comment here. Haden will be a solid corner but doubts about his speed/ability pushed him down. He's too good for the Patriots to pass on and Belichick should do a good job working with him.
23. Green Bay: Taylor Mays, S
24. Philadelphia: Devin McCourty, CB
25. Baltimore: Dez Bryant, WR
26. Arizona: Sean Lee, LB
27. Dallas: Charles Brown, OT
28. San Diego: Brian Price, DT
29. New York Jets: Carlos Dunlap, DE
30. Minnesota: Terrence Cody, DT
I personally think Cody will be a phenomenal NFL player.
31. Indianapolis: Vladimir Ducasse, OT
32. New Orleans: Tim Tebow, QB
I'm not sure if Tebow will be a Saint when this is all said and done, but a team out there will sneak into Round 1 to get him. The Saints do have a need for a backup/developmental quarterback, and giving Sean Payton a player he can be creative with could only make things in New Orleans more interesting.
Posted on: April 13, 2010 10:55 am
Santonio Holmes' off-field decisions made the Steelers' front office decision on what to do with him easier to make. With a year left on his contract, the team simply decided to punt on him and give him to the Jets for a fifth-round pick. He's one less headache for the franchise to worry about.
But Fantasy owners have a headache of their own as this was one of the rare trades where only a handful of players have a better outlook than before the deal. In a nutshell, this deal (along with his four-game suspension which was a precursor to the deal) crippled Santonio Holmes' Fantasy expectations and also threw a bunch of question marks into the status of other Steelers and Jets, including Ben Roethlisberger.
Holmes might be happy for a fresh start with the Jets, but his numbers aren't expected to be anywhere near as good as they were last year. Conside this: Last season the Steelers threw the ball 536 times with Holmes targeted 138 times. That's essentially a rate of one out of every four passes thrown his way (Hines Ward had the same rate by the way). The closest Jet to receive that kind of attention was Jerricho Cotchery with 115 of the measly 393 pass attempts they had. One would argue that the Jets will pass more in 2010 considering their beefed up receiving corps, but team officials have said as recently as Holmes' introductory press conference that the "ground-and-pound" approach will stick. Besides, even if the Jets do throw, say, 75 more times than last season, Holmes will still have to share the ball with Cotchery, Braylon Edwards and tight end Dustin Keller.
And he'll have zero catches between Weeks 1 through 4, plus no catches during his bye week. Suddenly, Fantasy owners are without Holmes for five weeks. If your Fantasy regular season is 13 weeks long, you're drafting a benchwarmer for 38% of the year. Taking all this into account, Holmes is not going to be a popular pick in drafts.
But when he is active he'll help the Jets' passing game quite a bit. After all, he is someone defenses must account for (Rex Ryan learned that the hard way in his years defending against Holmes while with the Ravens). That means deeper play for opposing safeties and good opportunities for tight end Dustin Keller. He came on strong for the Jets last postseason with 12 catches for 181 yards and three touchdowns, displaying some of the potential owners have clamored for over the last two summers. He's going to be a sleeper -- again -- in 2010.
The rest of the Jets' receivers don't gain much. Cotchery holds steady as a low-end No. 3/top-end No. 4 choice if only because he's established chemistry and timing with Sanchez, and he has the best hands on the team but doesn't score much. Braylon Edwards takes a big hit as we figure Holmes will replace him in many situations. And for good reason: Edwards finished '09 with 51 catches of 108 targets -- he caught less than half of the passes thrown his way. How reliable can he be? That question was answered when the Jets acquired Holmes.
Now typically when a quarterback has a receiving corps as strong as this, expectations are sky-high. But that's not the case for Sanchez. Again, the Jets intend to run the ball a ton in 2010, much as they did last season. Not having the opportunity to throw the ball means not having the opportunity to post good Fantasy totals. Even if we gave quality projections to Holmes, Cotchery, Edwards and Keller based on their recent play, Sanchez would still only total around 18 touchdowns or so. He's worth taking late just in case he does end up owning his fair share of 250-yard, multi-touchdown games but there are obviously safer Fantasy quarterbacks out there.
Meanwhile, the Steelers have a hole in their starting lineup. Replacing Santonio Holmes is not as easy as plugging in Mike Wallace and calling it a day. Wallace had great success last season as a mismatch deep-ball threat as 14 of his 39 catches were good for at least 20 yards. He practically averaged 20 yards per catch, too. Putting him in as a starting split end will mean more receptions but almost certainly a reeled-in receiving average. Simply put: Wallace should see more targets and catches, but not necessarily better yardage and touchdowns.
And if Wallace replaces Holmes, who replaces Wallace? That's almost a bigger question for the Steelers since Wallace really stretched defenses last season and made it easy for Ben Roethlisberger to accumulate his gaudy totals. On-staff candidates include Antwaan Randle El, Arnaz Battle and third-year receiver Limas Sweed. All have drawbacks, however: Randle El and Battle are old and without a great statistical track record and Sweed hasn't gotten up to speed on the NFL game thus far. None of these guys can be trusted in Fantasy outside of being a late-round flier in a deep draft.
Many Fantasy owners expect Hines Ward to be unaffected. We're not so sure. Ward's best seasons came when he played opposite either Plaxico Burress or Holmes. Getting a quality split end to take some pressure off of him has been a key to his success. Wallace will still draw coverage, but until he proves he's explosive, Ward could struggle. He's also not getting any younger and really is a high-reception target with potential for a good amount of touchdowns. He's a No. 2 Fantasy receiver.
So if Wallace's stats are in for a decline, and if Ward's stats could be capped and if replacements in the offense aren't appealing, does this mean a reversal of fortune for Ben Roethlisberger? We say yes. Obviously without a player he targeted often and trusted all over the field, Roethlisberger is going to have to lean on others, and that could put a hammerlock on his chances to have another big season. He'll need to cultivate another receiver to give him a fearsome foursome in the passing game, or else he'll be good enough to start, not good enough to consider a second-tier Fantasy quarterback like he was in '09. Throw in a possible team-mandated suspension for his off-field problems and he's effectively the Santonio Holmes of Fantasy quarterbacks, albeit without as big of a drop-off.
Is there anyone in Pittsburgh who benefits from the trade? One guy is tight end Heath Miller -- provided that the Steelers do not draft another receiver or get good play from one of the aforementioned "replacement receivers." Miller really stepped up last season as an easy target for Roethlisberger, especially with Holmes and Wallace stretching defenses. He should continue to put up nice numbers, and with Holmes gone, his role in the red zone might increase.
But it's Rashard Mendenhall who stands to get the most out of the deal. As Jamey Eisenberg pointed out in one of our recent Fantasy Football podcasts , the Steelers have done their best when they run the ball effectively. Mendenhall himself ran extremely well last season in spite of the fact that the Steelers leaned on their pass attack. Again, if the team doesn't pick up another receiver, Mendenhall should see more touches as offensive coordinator Bruce Arians utilizes him and takes some pressure off of Roethlisberger and the rest of the offense. That will almost certainly be the case if Big Ben misses games with a suspension.
What remains to be seen is how this trade impacts other trades involving receivers leading up to the draft. Brandon Marshall especially sticks out as a player who seems to be on a crash course with the transactions report, and like Holmes, Marshall is a free-agent-to-be with a history of off-field problems. Will this trade create a market for Marshall now that Holmes was taken for a fifth-round pick? Is Marshall worth a second? A third? Granted, we think Marshall will do well no matter where he plays because he's a tremendous talent (a big difference between him and Holmes), but we might be surprised again if he goes on the move this offseason.
Posted on: March 30, 2010 5:02 pm
Edited on: March 30, 2010 5:05 pm
I was in Orlando last week for the NFL Annual Meeting, and while there was much hubbub over the league's passing of the playoff OT rule, another change might impact Fantasy owners much more.
The league added 'defenseless players' among those who cannot be hit without penalty. Not just quarterbacks or kickers or punters, but any player in the act of making a catch but is not in a position to make a football move.
If you've played or watched football, or even played or watched Madden , you've seen a receiver jump for a ball and get jacked before he comes down with it. Here's a well-known example of such a play: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j9RfJwSkMU8
That is now illegal, and not just with leading with a helmet. A forearm, a shoulder and any part of the helmet can't touch a defenseless player. So by my interpretation of this new rule, tackling anyone who catches a ball while in the air will cost you.
That's going to hurt defenders who would react naturally and take down anyone near the ball. It's also going to result in game planning to take advantage of the rule so that hits like these over the middle are either completed or penalized: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4RcIJ2rLMUQ
Translation: More completions, more receptions, more stats. It might even be enough for one of the elite quarterbacks to make a Brees-like run at taking down Dan Marino's single-season yardage mark.
We already had a record amount of 4,000-yard passers last year. More 5,000-yard passers, anyone?
Posted on: March 5, 2010 4:59 pm
Edited on: March 5, 2010 5:05 pm
NFL fans are already wondering how the first day of free agency is impacting Fantasy Football. I'm glad to offer some thoughts, one topic at a time:
1. Brandon Marshall visiting Seattle. This is potentially the biggest news of the day as it would mean a quality, sure-fire No. 1 receiver changing addresses. Marshall is a restricted free agent who can sign an offer sheet with the Seahawks but would cost the team its No. 6 overall pick if the Broncos don't match.
That said, the Broncos are probably begging the Seahawks to sign him to an offer sheet.
The prospect of Marshall in Seattle is good, not great. I don't think he'll be quite as effective as he was in Denver. Fine, he'd still have a pretty good schedule in the NFC West (including a game at Denver), but quarterback issues, offensive line issues and people taking coverage away from him would all hinder his output. I'd still consider him a No. 1 WR, but I wouldn't be over the moon about it.
Domino effect: T.J. Houshmandzadeh, all Broncos receivers and passers would struggle.
And now on to things that HAVE happened instead of speculation ...
2. Chester Taylor signs with the Bears. This is great for the Bears, bad for the Vikings and knife-in-the-eye brutal for Fantasy owners. By virtue of this signing, we've lost another potential 15-to-20-touch running back out of the player pool.
Matt Forte might not have been your favorite choice for a No. 2 Fantasy rusher this summer but at least he had upside to work a lot and accumulate a ton of yardage and maybe more than four touchdowns. That's out the window now -- the assumption is that Taylor will compete with Forte for the starting job but ultimately share the ball with him. Under that guise, it would be a shock to see either running back land more than 15 touches in a game but instead hover around 10 per game.
And then there's the Martz factor: Already potentially hurting Forte's value, the mere presence of pass-happy offensive coordinator Mike Martz scares me further. Martz was phenomenal with Marshall Faulk in St. Louis but couldn't muster the same kind of stats out of Kevin Jones in Detroit, then ran Frank Gore into mediocrity with the 49ers -- Gore had his worst year as a starter under Martz. Don't be shocked if there's a game or two this season where Forte and Taylor combine for 15 touches.
I'll watch the backs in training camp and the preseason, but the biggest truth of all is that they've very much alike. Good size, great hands, able to block, no breakaway speed. It's going to be a mess. Taylor's Fantasy stock improves -- he's a legit No. 3 Fantasy RB, but so is Forte.
Domino effect: Vikings need a backup rusher for Adrian Peterson; if they don't add one, Peterson could be a beast -- as in, bigger than normal.
3. Nate Burleson signs with Detroit. If you take the financial aspect out of the deal, I like it a lot. I've been a Burleson fan for a while but strictly as him being a contributor, not a leading receiver. He's getting paid pretty well, but that doesn't matter in Fantasy.
What does matter is his presence across from Calvin Johnson in a high-powered Lions offense. On paper I like it a lot -- but I can't consider Burleson as anything more than a low-end No. 3 Fantasy WR. Could he get 900 yards and seven touchdowns? Yeah, and that would be great. But I think 700 yards and four touchdowns is more realistic.
Domino effect: Matthew Stafford has a real shot at 3,500 yards and 20 touchdowns. That would be great for him. Also, the Lions' run game could lose work with the passing game enhanced, but they're thin there anyway with Kevin Smith banged up.
4. More Bears: Julius Peppers signs. Again, I don't like the money involved, but I do think it's a good move for the Chicago defense. Their biggest problem last season was a consistent pass rush. They've got it now, and it should be ferocious because even if you double-team Peppers, you still have to deal with Alex Brown coming from the other side and Tommie Harris from up the middle. And Brian Urlacher blitzing. And so on. The Bears might be the best 4-3 scheme defense in the NFL in 2010. Peppers should also pressure opposing quarterbacks which typically results in interceptions. The biggest key to the Bears DST might be Devin Hester, who is believed to be returning kickoffs again. If that happens, and if he re-dedicates himself, then the unit could be Top 10 once again. That's where I have them ranked now.
Domino effect: Panthers DST is toast.
5. Jake Delhomme cut in Carolina. Matt Moore takes over, and he's OK as a No. 2 Fantasy QB but it's clear that the Panthers are heading in a youth movement direction. Not going to be pretty for them, and not going to be pretty for Steve Smith. He's a fine No. 2 WR but it's clear that this team will run the ball a ton in 2010. Good news for DeAngelo Williams (if he survives the offseason) and Jonathan Stewart (if he can stay healthy.
Domino effect: Jake Delhomme continues to be Fantasy repellent. Many are already pinning him to a backup role with the Saints.
For other Fantasy news from Friday, click here
Posted on: February 8, 2010 11:49 am
Edited on: February 8, 2010 11:54 am
Continuing with my annual tradition, I am ringing in the start of the new NFL season with a prediction for the upcoming Super Bowl. And, as you'll read, it's pretty unscientific.
Here are my rules: I can make as many changes as I'd like UNTIL kickoff of the first game of the 2010 season. I'm locked in at that point. Anytime I make a change, I'll let you know (either via the blog or Twitter or ESP).
Last year, I had Vikings vs. Patriots through much of the summer until I went through my annual ritual of predicting every game before the start of the season, at which point I determined the Chargers would be the better pick and I made the buzzer-beating switch. Not that it made any difference, though I *did* pick the Saints and Colts to win their respective divisions.
But Super Bowl XLIV is old news. It's time to look ahead.
NFC prediction: Packers
NFC contenders: Cowboys, Eagles, Vikings, Saints
Why the Packers? I think they're built to be competitive on both sides of the ball NOW. Continuity is strong on both sides of the ball. And they're relatively healthy right now. Draft needs are minimal. Schedule isn't that bad, especially considering their division. I think they had a shot to go this year if not for some meltdowns at Arizona in the playoffs.
AFC prediction: Titans
AFC contenders: Patriots, Jets, Ravens, Steelers, Bengals, Texans, Colts, Chargers
Why the Titans? They've got their fundamentals down pat. By that I mean they have a strong O-line, a strong D-line and they can use both very well. Coaching is great. Pass rush is an issue there but I'm assuming they address it this offseason. Running game should be phenomenal and a full offseason of Vince Young working on his game and finding ways to take advantage of Chris Johnson in his backfield should go a long way. You can laugh at the pick and laugh at Young all you want, but he's led them to the playoffs already in his short career and came close to getting them back there in 2009.
I will say this: The Titans pick was a difficult one to make. I really like the Ravens if they boost their receivers and defensive backs, and you can't rule out the old guard of the AFC either -- the Colts, Patriots, Chargers and Steelers.
Don't be shocked if the pick changes between now and when the Saints host either the Vikings or Steelers in the first game of the 2010 season this September.
Posted on: February 5, 2010 8:35 am
Let's begin with an assessment that many people who I've spoken with this week agree on: Tomlinson simply is not the same running back that he once was. Can he still digest a playbook, catch a pass, set a block and find the end zone? No doubt. Can he run? Not with as much consistency as he could as little as three years ago. Does he still have breakaway speed? If he does, he hasn't shown it lately. The overriding belief is that Tomlinson can still be an effective back, but not for nearly the amount of work he'd like. He is -- at best -- a tandem-situation running back.
So, who could use a split-time rusher with a wealth of experience? Lots of teams, but you can be sure that Tomlinson won't chase dollar Bills like Terrell Owens did last year and sign with a team with little chance of making the postseason. Tomlinson, like most other players, wants a championship. He'll want to play somewhere where that can happen.
With those parameters in place, here are some candidates for Tomlinson upon his release from San Diego (in alphabetical order):
Houston: They're on the brink of competing for at least a wild card berth, and they'd have to win every game possible just to have a shot at breaking the Colts' hammerlock at the top of the division (beating them sure would help). Tomlinson has the skill set to be successful in Houston, and he's a Texas native to boot.
New England: Bill Belichick loves veterans looking for a final shot at glory, and there's no doubt that he has profound respect for Tomlinson. Whether or not he has respect for Tomlinson's skills is another story altogether, not to mention having the space amid a crowded running back corps for him.
Philadelphia: If Brian Westbrook is headed the way of Isaac Bruce and Kurt Warner, then Tomlinson would be a neat one-year insurance policy in case LeSean McCoy can't pick up the slack. True, this would be a nightmare for Fantasy owners who are waiting for McCoy to pop in 2010 but the Eagles weren't shy about using three backs last season and could easily do it again. Like in Houston, Tomlinson has the right skill set for the Eagles.
Pittsburgh: Tomlinson wouldn't have much of a chance to start with the Steelers, but being a 10-carry-per-game guy behind Rashard Mendenhall would be a nice fit for him. He'd be a heck of an upgrade over Willie Parker.
There are other spots too -- Cleveland, Detroit, Seattle -- that could be interested in Tomlinson, but they're not playoff contenders.
And there's one last place where L.T. could be wanted -- maybe -- and that's San Diego. Norv Turner was mum on the L.T. topic with me when I asked him about it last week, but Tomlinson is the one saying he'll refuse a pay cut. It's not a case of the team saying "get outta here." If Tomlinson did an about face and accepted an, ahem, salary correction, then he'd probably get a chance to stay and maybe even get 250 touches. And last I checked, the Chargers were a playoff contender.
Seems like a great fit to me.