Tag:Wildcats
Posted on: November 14, 2008 1:27 pm
Edited on: November 14, 2008 9:46 pm
 

Final thoughts on the upcoming Big East season

Now that every team has been previewed, it's time for me to collect my thoughts. This league is probably one of the toughest in history to predict, but I'm going to take a shot at it. First I'll arrange the teams by tiers, then I'll project the finish, and finally I'll have some thoughts on how the conference teams will do in the preseason tournaments. I had about 80% of this finished when my browser crashed before, so this is more hurried and probably has dropped in quality; apologies for that.

I believe that the nine-team-in projection is not at all far-fetched, and that as many as 12 might see some postseason play or other. It will all depend on nonconference performance and the new conference tourney format. I'm excited for the first Big East games tonight, starting at 7 PM, and can't wait for the season in general. Now, on to business...


Tiers of Teams

Stratifying the league even this way is difficult. There are four preseason title contenders, and I agree that they're the most likely winners, but I doubt they finish 1-4. The next groups of teams are hard to separate, with a lot of teams bearing hugely talented rosters and similar weak spots. Regardless, I think I have come up with a reasonable, though admittedly subjective, set of crieteria for differentiating what we've got. (Each tier is listed alphabetically)

Tier One:

Connecticut, Louisville

These teams have the best combination of talent, balance, and depth to be the clear-cut favorites. They aren't the only two who could win the league, but I'd be surprised if either finished outside the top 4.

Tier Two:

Notre Dame, Pittsburgh

These teams have a ton of returning talent, but lack either the balance (Pitt) or the depth (ND) to be favored over the above teams. The next group of teams could easily displace either of these, but I'd be surprised if either finished lower than sixth.

Tier Three:

Marquette, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia

Between tiers three and four is in my opinion the toughest place to draw a line. The distinction I drew is that these four teams I believe have the biggest chance to sneak into the top four, and would surprise me the most to finish out of the top half of the league.

Tier Four:

Georgetown, Providence

I believe one of these two teams will be left out of the Big Dance, and neither looks to me to have the talent to sneak into the top 4. Either one could surpass some of the teams in tier three, though, if things break the right way.

Tier Five:

Cincinnati, Rutgers, Seton Hall

These are the teams between NCAA rosters and terrible. I don't believe any is capable of squeezing into the top half of the league, but the one who puts together the best resume will probably land in the NIT. I think any of these could be competitive in some other conferences out there.

Tier Six:

DePaul, South Florida, St. John's

This is the dead weight. A 13th place finish would be a major victory for any of these three teams. I hate to be that harsh, but there's just no comparison between these rosters and most others in the Big East.



Projected Final Standings:

I'm not kidding when I say how hard this is. So before you flame me, homers, for having your team too low, remember that I've probably considered every legitimate argument your team has and decided that the others' have slightly more weight. Finishing tenth in this conference is not an insult...that team will be a very good one whether it's my pick or not. So before you say there's "no way" it could be your team, really consider the competition. I believe anyone but my top five could actually end up in the ten spot. OK, no more hedging, here's my order.

  1. Louisville (NCAA) They're my pick thanks to an easier schedule than the Huskies
  2. Connecticut (NCAA) They have the most talent, but a very rough road.
  3. Pittsburgh (NCAA) I pick them here largely because they get my next two teams at the Peterson Events Center, where they don't lose many games.
  4. Syracuse (NCAA) Someone will oust one of the "top four" and my pick is the Orange. I choose them because I believe they have the best combination of returning scorers and new talent from my "tier three" teams.
  5. Notre Dame (NCAA) I choose them to be bumped from the top four because I believe they are the least set up for the long haul. Their talent makes them capable of beating any team, but its concentration in two or three players makes them vulnerable.
  6. Villanova (NCAA) Experience wins my vote among some hard to separate squads.
  7. West Virginia (NCAA) The Mountaineers return more talent than most realize, and have an excellent recruiting class. They will have the best defense of several BE teams relying on forwards and no center up front.
  8. Marquette (NCAA) I hate to pick a team with this much talent this low, but teams 1-7 are that good.
  9. Providence (NCAA) They have the schedule to make something of a run, and more talent than you think.
  10. Georgetown (NIT) There. I did it. The Hoyas are reloading and I think it costs them. If they prove me wrong (higher than 8th place) I'll eat my crow.
  11. Seton Hall (NIT) I throw them up here largely because of Cincinnati's injuries, but also recognizing that here are some good pieces in place here.
  12. Cincinnati (CBI) They were going to be my surprise NCAA pick until they lost three players. Watch out for this team in 2009-2010
  13. Rutgers (none) They have enough players I like to keep them out of the bottom three.
  14. St. John's (none) Down at this level, experience is king, and they have grown together as a team and are well-coached.
  15. DePaul (none) I give them a slight edge over the Bulls.
  16. South Florida (none) I could really see a 1-17 conference record here, with a home win over DePaul.
So there it is. Teams 8 and 9, whether they are my picks or not, had better 1) excel in the ooc and 2) not flame out in the BE tournament. If that happens it will get the top 12 a chance to play in a postseason tournament. Of course, teams 9-12 had better win those opening round games, too...



The Big East in preseason tournaments

Connecticut - Paradise Jam
They get an opening round matchup with La Salle that should be an easy win. Anything short of winning this tournament would be something of a failure, but Miami, San Diego, and Wisconsin are all very dangerous. I'd most like to see the SD - UCONN matchup in the final. I'll say UCONN wins it, but it won't be easy.

Georgetown - Old Spice Classic
There' a very winnable opening round game against Wichita State, followed by a matchup with Siena or Tennessee. That second round game could be tough for the Hoyas to win. I think they face Tennessee (though Siena could surprise some folks) and lose. That would put them in the 3rd/5th place game with either Gonzaga or Michigan State, both games I think they would lose. With its 5th place finish, I think we will learn that Georgetown isn't a top 25 team just yet.

Notre Dame - Maui Invitational
OK, I have said that I think Indiana could stun Notre Dame in this opening round game for a number of reasons. Understand that that only means I give them about a 10% chance. Notre Dame should win that game. If they avoid that crazy upset, I believe they will defeat Texas and face UNC in the title game. Anything could happen there with Hansbrough out, or even with him playing 80%. This is an opportunity for the Big East to really flex a muscle early.

Pittsburgh - Legends Classic
This almost doesn't deserve mention, but it is a preseason tournament...Pittsburgh first hosts Akron and Indiana (PA) (Fairleigh Dickinson, though in the tournament, doesn't count as part of the tournament in tonight's game @ Pitt). If Pitt loses either of those...OK, let's not think about that, but even if they do they meet Texas Tech in the semifinal and then either Mississippi State or Washinton State in the final. If Pittsburgh doesn't win the thing it will be a major failure.

Providence - Anaheim Classic
This is to me one of the more intriguing preseason tournaments, as it is loaded with teams trying to sneak into the national discussion but no clear powerhouses. There will be no easy games for the Friars, but I'm going to say they knock off Baylor, Arizona State, and Wake Forest consecutively to take home the title and secure one heck of an ooc resume. I realize I'm out on a limb, but Providence is better than the attention they're getting, and I look for them to prove it in a big way.

Seton Hall - Puerto Rico Season Tip Off
The Pirates will be without transfer Robert Mitchell for this tournament, and because of that I think they lose to USC with little contest. I do think they can win the loser's bracket and capture fourth place, though, with Chattanooga and Missouri as the likely opponents.

St. John's - NIT Season Tip Off
Cornell is a better team than St. John's, so I will say the Red storm likely go home early. However, if they pull that upset, the next round against Boston College or Loyola (MD) is easier. Again, I expect one-and-done, but if they win the first they might just win two. I see very little chance of further advance than that.

Syracuse - CBE Classic
This is the same format as the Legends Classic but less of a joke. Syracuse has all but assured wins in LeMoyne and Richmond to get things going, followed by a tough smeifinal against Florida. I say that Syracuse gets it done, beating Florida and then the defending champs. I think Florida will be the tougher of the two games, but this is the Orange's Chance to say "we're here."



Roundup: So, I see four preseason tournament champions (Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Providence, and Syracuse), one runner-up (Notre Dame) and two top half finishes (Georgetown, Seton Hall) for the Big East. The lone one-and-done I suspect will be St. John's. 

Note tournaments that I couldn't find brackets for include: West Virginia and DePaul in the Las Vegas Invitational, Cincinnati in the Global Sports Classic, Villanova in the Philly Classic, Marquette in the Chicago Invitational Challenge, and South Florida in the San Juan Shootout.  Of those, the most important game I'm aware of is a WV-Kentucky matchup, which I'll go ahead and pick the Mountaineers to win.


So, there you have it, my complete opinion on Big East basketball '08-'09. Thanks to everyone who took the time to bother reading all this the last few weeks; I hope you enjoyed reading it as much as I did putting it together. Let me know what you think, even if you think I'm an idiot, because I want to hear it! Also, check out the Second Annual year-long Big East thread for constant discussion of all relevant Big East topics. Go Big East!
Posted on: November 12, 2008 9:03 pm
 

Big East Preview 15, Villanova Wildcats

Villanova is one of many Big East teams garnering a lot of preseason attention.  Returning the top seven (and nine of the top ten) scorers from a Sweet Sixteen team will do that.  Of course, the critics say 'Nova benefited from a weak slate of opponents (until Kansas), a sentiment with at least a small measure of credibilty.  A lot of experienced, battle-tested talent will go a long way, though, so good things are very possible for this team.  They expect to make some noise in the conference and in the postseason.  How loud will it be?
2007-2008
Results:

20-12 Overall, 9-9 Big East (8th)
Eliminated 2nd Round of Big East tournament (Georgetown)
Lost in Sweet Sixteen to eventual champion Kansas

Roster:

Dwayne Anderson        G/F
Shane Clark                     F
Jason Colenda               G
Dante Cunningham       F
Casiem Drummond      C
Corey Fisher                   G
Malcolm Grant                G
Andrew Ott                       F
Antonio Pena                  F
Reggie Redding            G
Scottie Reynolds           G
Corey Stokes                 G
Frank Tchuisi                 F
2008-2009
Departures:

Grant, Ott

Simply put, those losses don't matter.  At all.  5.6 ppg goes to Miami (Grant) and 0.8 ppg goes to Penn State (Ott).  The result is an intact roster from a very successful team.

Arrivals:

Russell Wooten        not an arrival per se, he has been on the roster but not played for two years.  I have to assume he's a non-scholarship player who won't be a factor.

Taylor King             F  (transfer from Duke)  He's sitting out the '08-'09 campaign, so this mention is just to note he's taking a roster spot.  He could be a big part of the next team, though, that will feature a very solid freshman class, or so it appears.

Maurice Sutton     F/C

He's the freshman class by himself, which I suppose makes since with only two players leaving.  25th ranked at his Center, he adds something where the Wildcats need it most.  If he could be the presence up front Drummond never was, it will do wonders.

The Schedule:

Nonconference Games
:      Albany, Fordham, Niagra, Monmouth, Towson, Pennsylvania, Houston Baptist, Texas, Saint Joseph's, La Salle, Navy, Temple

We probably won't know a lot about Villanova after this slate, unless they beat Texas.  Sure, Temple and Niagra are dangerous teams, but the Wildcats should win those games.  If they lose to Texas, well Texas is a top ten team.  There isn't a lot of room to build a great resume on that schedule, so they'll have to do better than 9-9 in the Big East to be a tournament lock.

Two Time Opponents:     Marquette, Providence, Syracuse

None of the heavyweights, but none of the cake walk teams either.  4-2, or even 5-1, is achievable in these games.

Remaining Roadies:     Seton Hall, Connecticut, South Florida, West Virginia, DePaul, Notre Dame

Home Games:      Louisville, St. John's, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Rutgers, Georgetown

This is in my opinion a very favorable Big East schedule overall.  They avoid home and homes with any of the big four...and split the four games two home, two away.  They have enough easy teams on the road (Seton Hall, USF, DePaul) that a good home record will assure them an over .500 and top half finish in the conference.
The Outlook

Best Case Scenario:
     Victoria Zdrok attends all the home games, and travels with the team, inspiring a competitive spirit.  The Coreys (Fisher and Stokes) help out by contributing about 10 ppg apiece alongside Reynolds.  Cunningham and Clark hold down the frontcourt, and the rotation of Drummond and newcome Sutton at center give Villanova the presence in the paint, offensively and defensively, that they lacked last year. That cumulative effect gets them the upset over Texas and a perfect ooc mark.  They win 5 in the home and home series, adding three or four more road wins.  At home, they win 4 or 5 more, for a record in the range of 12-6 to 14-4, with the high end enough to finish in the top 4 and get a double bye into the Big East tournament.  A good showing there gets them Regionally protected in the NCAA tournament, and an Elite Eight is in sight.

Worst Case Scenario:
     Zdrok instead goes to all the Georgetown games, having contracted late-developing Hoya lust.  There isn't quite enough improvement from the guards behind Reynolds to ramp up the scoring.  Drummond and Sutton struggle to compete inside, and consequently the Wildcats  have trouble against teams with solid frontcourts.  They get stunned by Niagra and Temple, also losing the big game to Texas.  They do manage to beat a few very good teams in the Big East, but wind up finishing ninth or tenth and missing the big dance.  They do well in the little dance, though, for some minor redemption.

My Take:
    Poorly placed Victoria Zdrok jokes aside...I mentioned above that nine of the top ten scorers return, including the top seven.  However, only the top three of those really produced a lot of points.  Clark, Pena, Anderson, and Stokes will have to cumulatively pick up ten points or so for Villanova to take the next step (I think they can do so, but it is an open question for now).  They, like many teams in the conference, have the talent for an NCAA tournament and will be a tough out if they get there.  Defense is what I believe will make or break 'Nova.  If Drummond and Sutton can be effective under their own basket, and Clark and Cunningham pick it up a little as well, they could be a force.  If not, they could be in for some long evenings against the stronger inside teams in the league.  That's a large part of the reason I see a huge range of possibilities for Villanova.  I won't be surprised if they sneak into the top four of the Big East, especially with their relatively favorable schedule, but I also won't be surprised if they finish ninth.  Until some games are played, the middle of this league is very hard to separate, so don't take that as an insult to the team.  The ninth place team in the Big East will be a pretty good squad.
Category: NCAAB
 
 
 
 
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