Posted on: February 24, 2009 5:05 pm
 

Up to the second bubble watch

KEY:
Locks: Teams that are in the NCAA Tournament for sure, even without an auto bid
Should Be Ins: The next level down from lock status. These teams are pretty sure they are going dancing.
Bubble In/Out Projection: My up to the second projection from my latest bracket, telling you who is in/who is out

Total Locks: 21
Should Be Ins: 4
Total: 25

To figure out how many at large spots are available we will assume that the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, and Pac 10 will be won by one of the teams with a "lock status". Then we will add in Conference USA since Memphis hasn't lost a conference game in years. That takes seven of the at large bids we just projected and makes them automatic bids.

25-7=18
34-18=16

There are 16 spots at large spots available for bubble teams right now . I realize that I used 21 spots for bubble teams down below, but keep in mind that the SEC will probably be won by one of the five teams I listed, and that the Horizon & Socon will probably be won by Davidson & Butler.

ACC:
Locks:
4: Duke, Wake Forest, North Carolina, Clemson
Should Be Ins: 1: Florida State
Bubble In Projection: 3: Boston College, Maryland, Miami FL
Bubble Out Projection: 1: Virginia Tech

Atlantic 10:
Locks: 1: Xavier
Should Be Ins: 0
Bubble In Projection: 1: Dayton
Bubble Out Projection: 1: Temple

Big East:
Locks:
5: Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Louisville, Villanova
Should Be Ins: 2: West Virginia, Syracuse
Bubble In Projection: 0
Bubble Out Projection: 4: Providence, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Cincinnati

Big Ten:
Locks:
3: Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois
Should Be Ins: 0
Bubble In Projection: 4: Ohio State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Penn State
Bubble Out Projection: 1: Northwestern, Michigan

Big 12:
Locks:
3: Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri
Should Be Ins: 0
Bubble In Projection: 2: Texas, Oklahoma State
Bubble Out Projection: 5: Nebraska, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Baylor

Pac 10:
Locks:
3: Washington, UCLA, Arizona State
Should Be Ins: 0
Bubble In Projection: 2: Arizona, California
Bubble Out Projection: 1: USC

SEC:
Locks:
0
Should Be Ins: 1: LSU
Bubble In Projection: 4: Kentucky, Florida, South Carolina, Tennesseee
Bubble Out Projection: 0

Mountain West:
Locks:
0
Should Be Ins: 0
Bubble In Projection: 3: BYU , Utah, UNLV
Bubble Out Projection: 2: New Mexico, San Diego State

Others:
Locks:
2: Gonzaga, Memphis
Should Be Ins: 0
Bubble In Projection: 2: Butler, Davidson
Bubble Out Projection: 4: Utah State, VCU, Creighton, UAB

 

Category: NCAAB
Tags: Bubble Watch
 
Posted on: February 23, 2009 8:05 pm
 

Dantheman's Resume Formula

Before you read this I know it has some flaws. I am working out the kinks. In fact I am just playing around with Microsoft Excel right now while trying to create a formula I feel comfortable with to judge at large resumes. For this exercise I have selected the 62 teams I think are most likely leading candidates at large consideration. Beer has helped me out quite a bit with Excel so I certainly won't act like I know the program like the back of my hand. He does though and without him I couldn't have done this.

This formula rewards teams that win, have a high RPI, high SOS, good wins, and hurts teams with bad losses. Like I said I know this formula has a lot of flaws so don't expect perfection. Simply just tell me what you think.

Here's a few things I thought when I saw the results:

  • Based off of this my four #1 seeds are in fact the four teams with the best resumes in the entire country.
  • Utah State is #22. Hmmm seems like the only major flaw I see at this point.
  • Teams 34 and above are relatively in good shape (aside from the few flaws...Utah State for example) considering that probably about 8 teams on this list will get an auto bid.
  • Remember: The formula still has many kinks. I am just playing around although I do have most of the data I want included in the formula. I will continue tweaking it. Please just comment on your initial thoughts and whether you think its a cool idea or not.

Dantheman's Resume Formula:

1    Oklahoma
2    Pittsburgh
3    Connecticut
4    North Carolina
5    Duke
6    Michigan State
7    Villanova
8    Marquette
9    Louisville
10    Kansas
11    Clemson
12    Memphis
13    Wake Forest
14    Illinois
15    Xavier
16    Missouri
17    Arizona State
18    Purdue
19    California
20    Dayton
21    Florida State
22    Utah State
23    LSU
24    Butler
25    UNLV
26    Gonzaga
27    UCLA
28    Texas
29    Washington
30    Syracuse
31    Minnesota
32    Florida
33    Utah
34    Kentucky
35    Creighton
36    Penn State
37    Arizona
38    West Virginia
39    Ohio State
40    St. Mary's
41    Brigham Young
42    Boston College
43    Siena
44    South Carolina
45    Davidson
46    Maryland
47    Texas A&M
48    Tennessee
49    Kansas State
50    San Diego State
51    Michigan
52    Nebraska
53    Wisconsin
54    Oklahoma State
55    Cincinnati
56    Miami (Fla.)
57    Georgetown
58    Temple
59    UAB
60    Baylor
61    Southern California
62    Virginia Tech

BRACKETOLOGY: I released this earlier today and you can find it here .

Category: NCAAB
Posted on: February 23, 2009 12:46 pm
 

Monday AND Tuesday Picks!

At Beer's request I am combining tonight's picks with tomorrow night's picks:

Monday & Tuesdya Picks:

13-Pittsburgh over Providence
12-New Mexico over TCU
11-Jacksonville over Stetson
10-Louisville over Georgetown
9-Florida State over Boston College
8-Texas A&M over Nebraska
7-Florida over LSU
6-Northern Iowa over Illinois State
5-VMI over Liberty
4-Oklahoma over Kansas
3-Penn State over Ohio State
2-Brigham Young over San Diego State
1-Murray State over Tennessee-Martin

Category: NCAAB
Tags: Picks
 
Posted on: February 22, 2009 11:09 am
 

Sunday Picks: 10 great games

Beer has already posted these on his blog as well. I don't think he will care if you pick them here or there.

10-Belmont over Mercer
9-Northwestern over Minnesota
8-Illinois over Ohio State
7-Duke over Wake Forest
6-La Salle over Duquesne
5-Maine over Albany
4-Seton Hall over St. Johns
3-Wisconsin over Michigan State
2-Syracuse over Villanova
1-Arizona over Arizona State

Category: NCAAB
Tags: Picks
 
Posted on: February 22, 2009 12:56 am
Edited on: February 22, 2009 1:19 am
 

CBB Nightly: Ten Thoughts from Saturday

10 Thoughts From Saturday:

1) I'm tired of harping on this but I feel as if nobody is listening to me. Tennessee has been given the benefit of the doubt all season long. After their second loss to Kentucky on Saturday I think it's about time any recognition we were giving the Volunteers should be ended. At this point Tennessee is only the FOURTH best team in the SEC East and is struggling to win games against the easiest conference foes (Auburn, Mississippi). Joe Lunardi is one of big backers of Tennessee, keeping them as at least a 7 seed all season no matter how many losses they received. It will  be interesting to see where Lunardi has the Vols after another loss.

2) I began my "pre-Saturday thoughts blog" with a statement about bubble teams needing to show they really want to go to the NCAA Tournament. Maryland answered that call by knocking off North Carolina by coming from 16 down in the second half. The Tar Heels, as I've stated countless times, are the nation's best team in my opinion. Therefore beating North Carolina opens by eyes. Keep in mind that this is the same Maryland team that has lost to Clemson by 29, Duke by 41, Georgetown by 27, and Gonzaga by 22. That shows how crazy this world of college basketball is.

3) Blake Griffin left Saturday night's game with rival Texas just thirteen minutes into the game, leaving the Longhorns with the perfect oppurtunity to snatch a big win.  Beating Oklahoma without Griffin makes the win look less important on paper but it saved Texas' season. Griffin showed his important to the Sooners in this one, who lost their second game this year.

4) Bracketbuster Saturday taught us quite a few things. First of all Stephen Curry has struggled in big games this season (check my previous blog), probably due to the defensive attention focused on him and the lack of a secondary scorer. Saint Marys knocked off Utah State, another team that will likely need to win its conference tournament to get a NCAA Tournament bid. The Gaels may not be done with at large berth contention just yet, especially if Patty Mills comes back healthy. Creighton keeps winning its way towards a potential at large berth as well.

5) Virginia Tech has officially done everything possible to play itself out of a NCAA Tournament bid. On Saturday the Hokies lost their third straight ACC game, this one to ACC. Miami (FL) finally got a big win by knocking off Boston College. I think the Hurricanes can safely say they are back in serious discussion for an at large bid.

6) Everyone has been writing off UNLV & New Mexico but both won big games on Saturday. The Rebels knocked off BYU while the Lobos dominated San Diego State.

7) LSU keeps winning and dominating the SEC West. I've already harped on Tennessee's resume (see #1) but I think it's about time to recognize the Tigers a little bit more. Their SOS is absolutely terrible but wins are wins and at this point LSU is looking like the SEC's best team. Before the season I had them in my preseason bracketology and was laughed at on a LSU message board by a couple of fans that said it was ridiculous to think that their basketball team would even be decent this year. Guess who got the last laugh?

8) Congratulations to Oregon, which won its first Pac 10 game on Saturday by beating Stanford. Two other things stick out in the Pac 10 after Saturday. UCLA continues to struggle after losing to Washington State and Oregon State has now won seven conference games after going winless in Pac 10 play last season.

9) My new bracketology will be out either tomorrow afternoon or tomorrow night. I apologize for not getting it out after today's games but there's a lot of changes to be made.

10) A few other winners that deserve getting a shout out: Washington, Florida, Siena, and Gonzaga.

Posted on: February 21, 2009 7:50 pm
 

Big Shot Stephen Curry losing his touch?

First of all I am one of Stephen Curry's biggest supporters. I'm not even a Davidson fan but his game is fun to watch and he's a great scorer. At points this season I've said that he should be player of the year (although now I am deciding between Oklahoma's Blake Griffin and North Carolina's Ty Lawson).

Davidson has went out and played big games this season. The Wildcats have played Oklahoma, West Virginia, North Carolina State, Purdue, Duke, and Butler. The Wildcats are only 2-4 in those games against quality competition. It's easy to figure out why. Curry, the guy who seemingly single handedly launched Davidson from an afterthought into a perennial Final Four team last season, has struggled in big games.

In those six games Curry is 57 of 160 (36%) from the field. From the three point line he is only 19 of 78 (24%) in those same games. It's incredible how a guy with as much talent as Curry can get shut down by a tremendous defensive effort.

Davidson is one of the better mid major teams in the country, but they probably need to win the Socon Tournament to get into the NCAA Tournament.

Curry in Davidson's BIG SIX Games:
Points Per Game:
29.5
Shots Per Game:
26.6
Field Goals: 57 of 160
Field Goal Percentage: 36%
Three Pointers: 19 of 78
Three Point Percentage: 24%

Curry almost took as many shots in each game as he scored points (29.5 to 26.6). If Davidson wants to make a long run in the NCAA Tournament this year then the Wildcats might want to get their star player going.

Category: NCAAB
Posted on: February 21, 2009 12:32 am
Edited on: February 21, 2009 10:52 am
 

Dantheman's Pre-Saturday Thoughts

Well guys I've had a very long night. I won't jump into details but I was already pretty down and upset, and this tripled it by about 100. So what do I do when I'm upset and down in the dumps? Talk college basketball to ease my mind.

Here's some pre-Saturday thoughts:

1) I'm posing a question to all bubble teams and it goes something like this: What does making the NCAA Tournament mean to you? At this point we haven't really seen any heart from Florida, Virginia Tech, and UNLV. All three are bubble teams that keep killing their NCAA chances by losing to teams they shouldn't. On Saturday both the Hokies and Rebels have big games that could make or break their at large hopes. Florida has to avoid going to sleep against a Vanderbilt team they've already mopped the floor on once. Is there any way we can see some heart from some bubble teams for once? Anyone have an objection to that? I am still waiting for a bubble team not named Arizona to make a run to the Big Dance. Who wants it? Anyone? I feel like I am yelling out for an answer but all I get is an echo of my own voice. Maybe on Saturday a bubble team will make a big move.

2) Who's the bubble team with the best chance to make that big move? I think its Georgetown. The Hoyas play a Marquette team that really isn't as battle tested as the rest of the Big East powers. Georgetown is really due a big win, but they have to take advantage and win this one to have any at large hopes. The Hoyas are as talented as any NCAA Tournament team that will be that is seeded from 6-16 but they haven't won the games to get there. If they win tomorrow they will be 6-8 in Big East play and probably in most bracketologies (like mine).

3) Will the real Tennessee Volunteers please stand up? I'm ready to see Bruce Pearl's squad play like they actually need to win a game instead of playing like their games are meaningless. On Saturday they take on Kentucky, who is in need a serious morale boost that only a win like one over the Vols can supply. Last time Kentucky played Tennessee Jodie Meeks basically won the game by himself in Knoxville. The key words there are in Knoxville. That means this game is played in Lexington. I have the over/under for Meeks points set at 29.5. What does everyone think? I will go under. Tennessee won't let him beat them again.

4) Bracketbusters will be absolutely everywhere on Saturday. If you don't catch a bracketbuster game tomorrow then you might as well just not be a college basketball fan. Butler-Davidson is the key game but there are many more important ones. Kind of like Illinois State-Niagara and VCU-Nevada. Want to know how good I am at picking bracketbusters? Well I am 0-2 on them and in my picks challenge I lost 41 points tonight since I lost both. I learned a very valuable lesson. In bracketbusters (and in most college basketball) playing at home is key. I already knew that of course, but I must've temporarily forgot it about 3 CT today. Thanks a lot brain.

5) By the way how about the over/under for Stephen Curry's points at 18.5. Why so low? Mainly because we're not even sure how many minutes he is going to play coming off of his ankle injury.

6) Anyone got a big upset on the agenda for tomorrow? Like I stated earlier, I picked Georgetown to knock off Marquette but there's another upset I like that I didn't pick. I had to play this one on the safe side, but I do think Auburn can knock off LSU in Baton Rouge. Very quietly the Tigers (AU) have been sneaking themselves up the SEC West ladder. All of a sudden they are in second and in prime position to knock off very untested LSU.

7) New Mexico is another team getting absolutely zero respect. Sure, the Lobos aren't beating good teams but they are in the middle of the logjam that is known as the Mountain West conference. Their loss to BYU really hurt their at large chances, but winining out in the regular season may still be enough to get them into the field as an at large. Why do I say the Lobos are getting no respect? ESPN's weekly bubble watch was published today and New Mexico, widely known as a contender for an at large, was not even listed.

8) Who is the best team nobody knows about? At this point I'd have to say it's UAB. The Blazers are playing very good basketball right now with their depleted roster. More than likely UAB will have to knock off Memphis in a week to get into the NCAA Tournament. I'm not sure of the exact rules and procedures for selecting bracketbuster teams (although I should, shame on me) but I think it's very weird that the Blazers were not picked to play in one. Maybe Conference USA isn't considered a bracketbuster conference, but I'd think it would be. If UAB makes the Sweet Sixteen this year I doubt more than 5% of the country has that picked. I'd consider that a bracketbuster.

9) Blake Griffin and Oklahoma have not been tested on the road this season, which is something I continue to harp on. Is going to Austin the ultimate road test? Heck no, but at least it's something. I can't wait to see how the Sooners handle the pressure of playing their biggest rival on the national stage tomorrow night.

10) I don't think anyone caught my joke on Luke Harangody in Wednesday night's ten thoughts but I considered it funny anyways. If Harangody wants to play in the NCAA Tournament then the Irish have to start their climb right now. A loss tomorrow sends them to the Big East Tournament in serach of a Big East title, with anything less meaning a NIT bid.

Now I will get back to my bad night. Not only did what I mentioned earlier create a terrible night, but so did my -41 score in today's college basketball picks. I guess that's the great thing about life though isn't it? Wake up and try again tomorrow. I'm out guys.

-Daniel Evans
OnlineSportsFanatic.com

Posted on: February 20, 2009 3:50 pm
Edited on: February 20, 2009 5:03 pm
 

Friday & Saturday Picks Plus A Complete Breakdown

Remember to check out Beer's blog as we try to find our National Picks champion!

Friday & Saturday's Picks
22-Florida over Vanderbilt
21-Oklahoma over Texas
20-VCU over Nevada
19-Illinois State over Niagara
18-Washington over USC
17-Louisville over Cincinnati
16-Notre Dame over Providence
15-Miami FL over Boston College
14-Tennessee over Kentucky
13-North Carolina State over Virginia
12-Oklahoma State over Baylor
11-Davidson over Butler
10-Georgetown over Marquette
9-New Mexico over San Diego State
8-Siena over Northern Iowa
7-Boise State over Portland State
6-LSU over Auburn
5-Florida State over Virginia Tech
4-UNLV over BYU
3-Creighton over George Mason
2-Utah State over Saint Marys
1-Buffalo over Vermont

Most Important Bubble Game: UNLV at BYU
The loser could very well be out of the field when my new bracket is released Saturday night. The Rebels really need a big win to end their current slide.

Most Important Bubble Game II: Butler at Davidson
A few weeks ago this appeared to be just a game for NCAA Tournament seeding. Since then Stephen Curry hurt his ankle and Butler is playing as young as they really are. I wrote a full preview for this game here.

Team with the Most Pressure to succeed: Virginia Tech
The Hokies have two straight inexcusable losses and can't lose at home against Florida State. Other candidates include Florida (can't afford another bad loss), UNLV (time to get going), Notre Dame (a loss away from being eliminated from bubble contention), and Georgetown.

Team with the best chance to improve it's resume: Georgetown
A win for the Hoyas would get them back to 6-8 in Big East play, give them a win over a top 10 team, and improve their already impressive computer numbers. They'd be back in my bracketology with a win.

Upset I wanted to pick: Auburn over LSU
I actually had it on here but changed it. LSU is energized after their comeback to beat Arkansas on Wednesday, and although Auburn is playing well I have to pick the better team at home.

Upset I did Pick: Georgetown over Marquette
Book it! Actually pick Marquette. The Eagles have gotten a lot of breaks in the Big East this year (as has every team towards the top of the standings) while Georgetown hasn't had a whole lot of things go its way. Maybe that changes for two hours Saturday.

Category: NCAAB
Tags: Picks
 
 
 
 
 
The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com