Tag:East Carolina
Posted on: September 8, 2011 1:08 am
 

Week 2 pix by JR -- the Real Expert rebounds

I went 12-11 in Week 1. Picking against the line is going to be tough, but at least I went 2-0 in my top handicap plays.

Wisconsin-UNLV was an easy over. And Middle Tennessee covered against Purdue. Remember I called off the Maryland-Miami play because of the big line change.

Dennis Dodd leads the experts, by going 15-8 last week.

On to Week 2

THURSDAY
At No. 9 Oklahoma State -14.5 vs. Arizona

FRIDAY
No. 21 Missouri +7.5 at Arizona State

SATURDAY
At Penn State +9.5 vs. No. 3 Alabama
No. 6 Stanford -21.5 at Duke
Oregon State +21.5 at No. 8 Wisconsin (over on UW again)
Fresno State +28.5 at No. 10 Nebraska
East Carolina +19.5 at No. 11 Virginia Tech

At Georgia +3.5 vs. No. 12 South Carolina
Nevada +27.5 at No. 13 Oregon
New Mexico +36.5 vs. No. 14 Arkansas (At Little Rock)
Toledo +18.5 at No. 15 Ohio State
At Auburn +6.5 vs. No. 16 Mississippi State

Florida Atlantic +32.5 at No. 17 Michigan State
At No. 18 Florida -21.5 vs. UAB
Ball State +20.5 at No. 20 South Florida
At Air Force +1.5 vs. No. 25 TCU
Utah +9.5 at USC
At Michigan +4.5 vs. Notre Dame

--------------

TOP HANDICAP PLAYS
FRIDAY: No. 21 Missouri +7.5 at Arizona State
SATURDAY: OVER 56.5 Oregon State at No. 8 Wisconsin
SATURDAY: No. 6 Stanford -21 at Duke

BONUS: At Michigan +3.5 vs. Notre Dame
Note: Reason some lines are different is because the experts pull their lines early Wednesday, so to compare my picks with the experts I have to go by what line they're using.

--------------

WEEK 1 HANDICAPPING (2-0)
Over of 56 in Wisconsin 51, UNLV 17
Middle Tennessee State +17.5 in 27-24 loss at Purdue

Posted on: August 31, 2011 11:14 pm
 

Week 1 pix by JR -- the Real Expert rebounds

The new season is less than 24 hours away. How freaking awesome is that?

And how awesome is it that CBSSports.com's Experts are now picking against the spread?!

It's about time, right? I agreed with many of your past complaints. "Yea, you guys are real experts. It's real tough to pick Florida over Western Carolina State A&M.

I'm all for picking against the spread, but a wise player knows you can't play every single game. You have to pick your spots. Unfortunately, I didn't do too well at that, going 19-23-1 last season.

But let's not forget my Underdog moneyline strategy during the bowl season was a positive 112.8 units.

This season I'll play along -- here on the message board -- with the 2011 experts, which feature some fresh faces, including new Senior Writer Brett McMurphy -- an excellent addition to the CBSSports.com team.

It will be interesting to see how many of the six experts break .500. I'm going to say none ... not when it comes to picking every Top-25 game.

I will include my top plays each week. Could be one, could be more, could be none. You have to pick your spots and I plan to beat that ugly 19-23-1 showing from 2010.

So on to Week 1.
First team listed is my pick

THURSDAY
UNLV +35.5 at No. 11 Wisconsin -- look for backdoor cover while UW plays third-stringers
-- Top handicap play here: Over of 56 -- I'm going to ride UW overs until it kills me this season

No. 20 Mississippi State -27.5 at Memphis -- notice all the experts like the Bulldogs -- that means guaranteed Memphis cover, right?

FRIDAY
At Baylor +5.5 vs. No. 14 TCU -- wouldn't surprise me if Baylor wins
Youngstown State +34.5 at No. 17 Michigan State

SATURDAY
At No. 1 Oklahoma -24.5 vs. Tulsa
Kent State +36.5 vs. No. 2 Alabama
No. 4 LSU -2.5 vs. No. 3 Oregon (at Arlington) -- Rut roh, looks like I'm the only LSU backer here
No. 19 Georgia +3.5 vs. No. 5 Boise State (At Atlanta)
La.-Monroe +29.5 at No. 6 Florida State

San Jose State +28.5 at No. 7 Stanford
At No. 9 Oklahoma State -37.5 vs. La.-Lafayette
At No. 10 Nebraska -35.5 vs. Chattanooga
East Carolina +20.5 vs. No. 12 South Carolina (At Charlotte)
At No. 13 Virginia Tech -25.5 vs. Appalachian State

Missouri State +40.5 at No. 15 Arkansas
At No. 16 Notre Dame -10.5 vs. South Florida
At No. 18 Ohio State -33.5 vs. Akron
At No. 21 Missouri -16.5 vs. Miami (Ohio)
Florida Atlantic +34.5 at No. 22 Florida

Utah State +21.5 at No. 23 Auburn
Minnesota +21.5 at No. 25 USC

SUNDAY
At No. 8 Texas A&M -15.5 vs. SMU
Marshall +20.5 at No. 24 West Virginia

----------------

TOP HANDICAP PLAYS
Thursday: OVER 56 UNLV at No. 11 Wisconsin
Saturday: Middle Tennessee +17.5 at Purdue
Monday:  At Maryland +5.5 vs. Miami

Posted on: January 11, 2011 10:39 am
 

Bowl pix by JR wrapup

Great finish to the college football season last night.

Again, I'd like to point out my comment from my Week 2 picks on Sept. 9:
"No. 21 Auburn over Mississippi State (Tigers my sleeper of the year)"

And of course -- well not really, based on my season record -- I picked Auburn to win last night. Dodd was the only expert to do so (maybe all the experts except for Chip Patterson should be replaced next season).

I was completely wrong on the high-score prediction. I had a feeling it would be low scoring heading into the game, but much easier to say after the fact. Hope no one got burnt on playing the over.

FINAL Expert Picks standings
Bowls: Patterson 22-13, Jacobi 19-16, Darst 18-17, me 18-17, Dodd 18-17 & Horowitz 17-18
Overall: Patterson 258-81, Darst 252-87, me 248-91, Dodd 245-94, Jacobi 244-95 & Horowitz 239-100

Underdog moneyline strategy
Had you followed this theory, you would have been ahead 112.8 units. And to think it started out 0-5.

Remember I said not to play any games of this theory after Dec. 31 (No underdogs won outright after this date). But if you want to know the final tally for all the bowls, here you go:

Underdog moneyline strategy
0-1/-10: New Mexico: BYU wins as FAV vs. UTEP (+320)
0-2/-10/Total -20: Humanitarian: Northern Illinois wins as FAV vs. Fresno State (+111)
0-3/-10/Total -30: New Orleans: Troy wins as FAV vs. Ohio (+110)
0-4/-10/Total -40: Beef O’Brady’s: Louisville wins as FAV vs. So. Miss (+120)
0-5/-10/Total -50: Poinsettia: San Diego St. wins as FAV vs. Navy (+130)
DNP: Las Vegas Bowl: Boise State wins as FAV vs. Utah (+550)
1-5/+31/Total -19: Hawaii: Tulsa (+310) wins as DOG vs. Hawaii
DNP:  Little Caesars: FIU opened as DOG, wins as FAV vs. Toledo
1-6/-10/Total -29: Independence: Air Force wins as FAV vs. Ga. Tech (+125)
2-6/+13/Total -16: Champs Sports: N.C. State (+130) wins as DOG vs. West Virginia
3-6/+13/Total -3: Insight: Iowa (+130) wins as DOG vs. Missouri
3-7/-10/Total -13: Military: Maryland wins as FAV vs. East Carolina (+270)
DNP: Texas: Illinois opens as DOG, wins as FAV vs. Baylor
3-8/-10/Total -23: Alamo: Oklahoma State wins as FAV vs. Arizona (+170)
4-8/+25/Total: +2: Armed Forces: Army (+250) wins as DOG vs. SMU
5-8/+10.3/Total +12.3: Pinstripe: Syracuse (+103) wins as DOG vs. Kansas State
DNP: Music City: North Carolina wins as PICK vs. Tennessee
6-8/+39/Total +51.3: Holiday: Washington (+390) wins as DOG vs. Nebraska
7-8/+17/Total +68.3: Meineke Car Care: South Florida (+170) wins as DOG vs. Clemson
8-8/+11.5/Total +79.8: Sun: Notre Dame (+115) wins as DOG vs. Miami
9-8/+21/Total +100.8: Liberty: UCF (+210) wins as DOG vs. Georgia
10-8/+12/Total +112.8: Chick-Fil-A: FSU (+120) wins as DOG vs. South Carolina
-----------------------------------
-----------------------------------
-------------------------------

10-9/-10/+92.8: TicketCity: Texas Tech wins as FAV vs. Northwestern (+250)
10-10/-10/+82.8: Outback: Florida wins as FAV vs. Penn State (+210)
10-11/-10/+72.8: Capital One: Alabama wins as FAV vs. Michigan State (+250)
10-12/-10/+62.8: Gator: Mississippi State wins as FAV vs. Michigan (+145)
10-13/-10/+52.8: Rose: TCU wins as FAV vs. Wisconsin (+130)
10-14/-10/+42.8: Fiesta: Oklahoma wins as FAV vs. Connecticut (+520)
10-15/-10/+32.8: Orange: Stanford wins as FAV vs. Virginia Tech (+155)
10-16/-10/+22.8: Sugar: Ohio State wins as FAV vs. Arkansas (+130)
DNP: Go Daddy.com: Miami (Oh) opens as FAV, wins as DOG vs. Middle Tennessee State
10-17/-10/+12.8: Cotton: LSU wins as FAV vs. Texas A&M (+110)
10-18/-10/+2.8: BBVA Compass: Pittsburgh wins as FAV vs. Kentucky (+165)
10-19/-10/-7.2: Fight Hunger: Nevada wins as FAV vs. Boston College (+250)
DNP: Title game: Auburn opens as FAV, wins as PICK vs. Oregon

Thanks to those who often checked in. I was stunned to see each weekly blog received over 1,000 views and the Bowls pix blog received over 17,000 views. Maybe some of you were checking in to see who not to bet on, but I hoped some of the information helped.

Enjoy the offseason -- and feel free to check out CBSSports.com's baseball coverage through the year as that is my primary job here.

JR

Category: NCAAF
Tags: Air Force, Alabama, Alamo Bowl, Arizona, Arkansas, Armed Forces Bowl, Army, Auburn, Bama, Baylor, BBVA Compass Bowl, BCS Championship Game, BCS Title Game, Beef O’Brady’s Bowl, Boise State, Boston College, bowl predictions, bowl season, Brigham Young, BYU, Capital One Bowl, Central Florida, Champs Sports Bowl, Chick-fil-A Bowl, Clemson, College football, college football handicapping, college football picks, Connecticut, Cotton Bowl, Eagle Bank Bowl, East Carolina, expert picks, Fiesta Bowl, Fight Hunger Bowl, FIU, Florida, Florida International, Florida State, Fresno State, FSU, Ga. Tech, Gator Bowl, Georgia, Georgia Tech, GoDaddy.com Bowl, Hawaii, Hawaii Bowl, Holiday Bowl, Humanitarian Bowl, Illinois, Independence Bowl, Insight Bowl, Iowa, K-State, Kansas State, Kentucky, Liberty Bowl, Little Caesars Pizza Bowl, Louisiana State, Louisville, LSU, Maaco Bowl, Maryland, Meineke Car Care Bowl, Miami, Miami of Ohio, Michigan, Michigan State, Middle Tennessee State, Military Bowl, Mississippi State, Missouri, money line, moneyline, MSU, Music City Bowl, Navy, NC State, NCAA football, NCAA football picks, NCAA handicapping, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico Bowl, New Orleans Bowl, NIU, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Northern Illinois, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio, Ohio State, OK State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Orange Bowl, Oregon, OSU, Outback Bowl, Penn State, Pinstripe Bowl, Pittsburgh, Poinsettia Bowl, Rose Bowl, San Diego State, SMU, South Carolina, South Florida, Southern Methodist, Southern Miss, Southern Mississippi, St. Petersburg Bowl, Stanford, Sugar Bowl, Sun Bowl, Syracuse, TCU, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Texas Bowl, Texas Christian, Texas Tech, Texas-El Paso, TicketCity Bowl, Toledo, Top 25, Troy, Tulsa, UCF, UConn, UNC, underdogs, upsets, USF, Utah, UTEP, Va. Tech, Virginia Tech, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin
 
Posted on: December 17, 2010 10:48 pm
Edited on: December 17, 2010 11:05 pm
 

Bowl pix by JR -- the Real Expert

Are you ready for the Bowl Season? First kickoff is less than 16 hours away.

Even though I failed to defend my regular-season title among the experts, I look to bounce back with my bowl picks … but I have always struggled this time of year. You never know what team will show up; if a team is so bummed it's not playing in a bigger bowl (See Alabama) and isn't as focused as it should be.

But below, I'm making my picks anyway. More importantly, I'd like to point out my underdog moneyline strategy, which I will keep an updated scorecard for on the comment part of this blog.

The idea: Play the moneyline on the underdog for every bowl through Dec. 30. In the picks below, I list the moneyline in parentheses from scoresandodds.com.

Ex: BYU over UTEP (+320) means, even though I'm picking BYU to win to help my standings vs. the experts, I'm suggesting to play UTEP at +320 to win outright. I will keep records for my picks and the underdog moneylines for all the games. But I don't like the underdog moneylines after Dec. 30.

Some games won't have a +moneyline next to it, because there isn't one if the game is virtually a pick 'em.

Before getting to my winners below, a quick reminder of the Expert Picks regular-season standings: Chip Patterson 236-68, Darst 234-70, me 230-74, Dodd 2227-77, Jacobi 225-79 & Horowitz 222-82.

HANDICAPPING
As for my regular-season suggestions, I finished 19-23-1. I know, not good, but we'll get three of them back on Day 1 as I like the lines on all three games (UTEP +11½, Northern Illinois -1½ & Ohio +2).

There are a total of seven games I like. Add Central Florida +6½, Michigan State +9½, TCU-Wisconsin over of 58½ and Kentucky +3½.

If there are any more that pop up, I'll post on the comment board of this blog.

Good luck and have a happy holiday & bowl season.

THE WINNERS
SATURDAY, DEC. 18
New Mexico:  BYU over UTEP (+320) – Take the 11½ points
Humanitarian: Northern Illinois over Fresno State (+114) – Lay the 1½ 
New Orleans: Ohio (+110) over Troy – Take the 2 points

TUESDAY, DEC. 21
Beef O'Brady's:  Southern Mississippi (+120) over Louisville

WEDNESDAY, DEC. 22
Maaco: Boise State over Utah (+485) 

THURSDAY, DEC. 23
Poinsettia: San Diego State over Navy (+165)

FRIDAY, DEC. 24
Hawaii: Hawaii over Tulsa (+305)

SUNDAY, DEC. 26
Little Caesars: Florida International (+108) over Toledo

MONDAY, DEC. 27
Independence: Air Force over Georgia Tech (+125)

TUESDAY, DEC. 28
Champs Sports: West Virginia over North Carolina State (+125)
Insight: Missouri over Iowa (+108)

WEDNESDAY, DEC. 29
Military: East Carolina (+240) over Maryland
Texas: Baylor over Illinois (+110)
Alamo: Arizona (+175) over Oklahoma State

THURSDAY, DEC. 30
Armed Forces: SMU over Army (+250)
Pinstripe: Kansas State over Syracuse
Music City: Tennessee (+110) over North Carolina
Holiday: Nebraska over Washington (+400)

FRIDAY, DEC. 31
Meineke Car Care: Clemson over South Florida (+170)
Sun: Notre Dame (+125) over Miami
Liberty: Georgia over Central Florida (+210) – Take the 6½ points
Chick-Fil-A: South Carolina over Florida State (+135)

SATURDAY, JAN. 1, 2011
TicketCity: Texas Tech over Northwestern (+300)
Outback: Florida over Penn State (+250)
Capital One: Alabama over Michigan State (+310) – Take the 9½ points
Gator: Mississippi State over Michigan (+170)
Rose: Wisconsin 36 (+120), TCU 28 – Play the over of 58½
Fiesta: Oklahoma 42, Connecticut 13 (+475)

MONDAY, JAN. 3
Orange: Stanford 38, Virginia Tech 30 (+140)

TUESDAY, JAN. 4
Sugar: Ohio State 31, Arkansas 24 (+145)

THURSDAY, JAN. 6
Go Daddy.com: Miami of Ohio over Middle Tennessee State

FRIDAY, JAN. 7
Cotton: LSU over Texas A&M (+101)

SATURDAY, JAN. 8
BBVA Compass: Kentucky (+145) over Pittsburgh – Take the 3½ points

SUNDAY, JAN. 9
Fight Hunger: Nevada over Boston College (+310)

MONDAY, JAN. 10
BCS title game: Auburn 43, Oregon 38 (+135)

Category: NCAAF
Tags: Air Force, Alabama, Alamo Bowl, Arizona, Arkansas, Armed Forces Bowl, Army, Auburn, Bama, Baylor, BBVA Compass Bowl, BCS Championship Game, BCS Title Game, Beef O’Brady’s Bowl, Boise State, Boston College, bowl predictions, bowl season, Brigham Young, BYU, Capital One Bowl, Central Florida, Champs Sports Bowl, Chick-fil-A Bowl, Clemson, College football, college football handicapping, college football picks, Connecticut, Cotton Bowl, Eagle Bank Bowl, East Carolina, expert picks, Fiesta Bowl, Fight Hunger Bowl, FIU, Florida, Florida International, Florida State, Fresno State, FSU, Ga. Tech, Gator Bowl, Georgia, Georgia Tech, GoDaddy.com Bowl, Hawaii, Hawaii Bowl, Holiday Bowl, Humanitarian Bowl, Illinois, Independence Bowl, Insight Bowl, Iowa, K-State, Kansas State, Kentucky, Liberty Bowl, Little Caesars Pizza Bowl, Louisiana State, Louisville, LSU, Maaco Bowl, Maryland, Meineke Car Care Bowl, Miami, Miami of Ohio, Michigan, Michigan State, Middle Tennessee State, Military Bowl, Mississippi State, Missouri, money line, moneyline, MSU, Music City Bowl, Navy, NC State, NCAA football, NCAA football picks, NCAA handicapping, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico Bowl, New Orleans Bowl, NIU, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Northern Illinois, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio, Ohio State, OK State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Orange Bowl, Oregon, OSU, Outback Bowl, Penn State, Pinstripe Bowl, Pittsburgh, Poinsettia Bowl, Rose Bowl, San Diego State, SMU, South Carolina, South Florida, Southern Methodist, Southern Miss, Southern Mississippi, St. Petersburg Bowl, Stanford, Sugar Bowl, Sun Bowl, Syracuse, TCU, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Texas Bowl, Texas Christian, Texas Tech, Texas-El Paso, TicketCity Bowl, Toledo, Top 25, Troy, Tulsa, UCF, UConn, UNC, underdogs, upsets, USF, Utah, UTEP, Va. Tech, Virginia Tech, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin
 
Posted on: October 26, 2010 2:45 pm
 

Week 9 picks by JR -- the Real Expert

Boy, did last Saturday's Northwestern-Michigan State game irk me. I really thought the 'Cats would win and upset the No. 8 Spartans. NU fumbled at the 1 in the first quarter and blew a 17-0 lead. MSU took its first lead on a TD with 2:00 left.

But how about another top team (Oklahoma) going down. None of the so-called experts picked Mizzou … nor did they/we pick the Badgers to win in Iowa City.

For Week 8, I went 17-5, losing on OU, NU, Iowa, West Virginia (to Syracuse) and Texas (to Iowa State -- how did this possibly happen?).

I'm 145-39 on the season, remaining one game back of Chip Patterson, who also went 17-5. I passed J. Darin Darst, who went 15-7, and Dennis Dodd, who crashed & burned at 12-10.

Overall standings: Chip 146-38; me 145-39, Darst 144-40, Dodd & Adam Jacobi 141-43 & Jay Horowitz 133-51 … And they kicked me out?!?!?!

On to Week 9
TUESDAY
No. 2 Boise State over Louisiana Tech

THURSDAY
No. 16 Florida State 33, North Carolina State 27

SATURDAY
No. 24 USC 48, No. 1 Oregon 44
No. 3 Auburn over Mississippi
No. 4 TCU over UNLV
No. 18 Iowa 30, No. 5 Michigan State 20
No. 14 Nebraska 44, No. 7 Missouri 30 (Play the over of 55)

No. 8 Utah over Air Force
No. 10 Ohio State over Minnesota
No. 11 Oklahoma over Colorado
No. 13 Stanford over Washington
No. 15 Arizona over UCLA

No. 17 South Carolina over Tennessee
No. 19 Arkansas over Vanderbilt
No. 20 Oklahoma State over Kansas State
No. 22 Miami over Virginia
No. 23 Mississippi State over Kentucky
Texas over No. 25 Baylor

Georgia over Florida (Who would have thought neither would be ranked at this point?)
Central Florida over East Carolina
Texas A&M over Texas

WEEK 8 HANDICAPPING (4-0)
I suggested lay the points in Ohio State 49, Purdue 0 (closed at 24)
 & overs in
Michigan State 35, Northwestern 27 (closed at 51.5)
Stanford 38, Washington State 28 (closed at 64.5)
Nebraska 51, Oklahoma State 41 (closed at 58.5)

I only like one play for the upcoming week (the over in Nebraska-MIzzou). If anything else hits me before Saturday, I'll post below.

Interesting facts: The Longhorns were laying 21, making the Cyclones a nice +975. The Mountaineers were favored by 14 against the Orange.

Posted on: October 14, 2010 6:37 pm
 

Week 7 pix by JR -- the Real Expert

Yep, I picked South Carolina last week. I was off on the score – I said 20-17 – but I still nailed it when calling for the No. 1 team in the country to go down.

None of the so-called experts had South Carolina winning. This must be why they kicked me, the defending champion, out of their club. They were sick and tired of me embarrassing them every week. Did Dennis Dodd really pick Kansas State last week? KSU lost to Nebraska 48-13. Ouch!

Stick to reporting Dennis. Avoid the predictions, will ya?

However, I did drop the ball on Arizona (to Oregon State), Florida (to LSU), Miami (to FSU), Michigan (to MSU) and my upset call of Texas A&M (to Arkansas).

So I went 17-5 in Week 6, making me 114-24 on the year. That leave me in second all alone, one game back of Facts & Rumors blogger Chip Patterson, who had an impressive 18-4 showing, beating me on my A&M pick with Arkansas and my Michigan pick with MSU.

Now to Week 7

THURSDAY
No. 25 West Virginia over South Florida

SATURDAY
No. 1 Ohio State 33, No. 18 Wisconsin 16
No. 3 Boise State over San Jose State
No. 4 TCU over BYU (play the over of 48.5)
No. 5 Nebraska 31, Texas 17
No. 6 Oklahoma over Iowa State

No. 7 Auburn 28, No. 12 Arkansas 27
No. 8 Alabama over Mississippi
No. 9 LSU over McNeese State (this is just wrong, playing a team like this in October)
No. 10 South Carolina over Kentucky
No. 11 Utah over Wyoming

No. 13 Michigan State over Illinois
No. 15 Iowa over Michigan (I like the over of 53.5)
No. 15 Florida State over Boston College
No. 17 Arizona over Washington State
No. 19 Nevada over Hawaii (a small play on the under of 74)

Texas Tech over No. 20 Oklahoma State
Texas A&M over No. 21 Missouri
No. 22  Florida over Mississippi State (lay the 7.5)
No. 23 Air Force over San Diego State
Washington over No. 24 Oregon State

N.C. State over East Carolina
Syracuse over Pittsburgh
USC over Cal

MORE HANDICAPPING
I like (just a little) Minnesota-Purdue over of 51

WEEK 6 RECAP (17-5)
Losses mentioned in lead-in graphs, but for handicapping purposes, I went 1-0, suggesting to take the 22 points in Minnesota-Wisconsin. That puts me on a six-game win streak!!!!

 
 
 
 
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