Tag:UNLV
Posted on: August 31, 2011 11:14 pm
 

Week 1 pix by JR -- the Real Expert rebounds

The new season is less than 24 hours away. How freaking awesome is that?

And how awesome is it that CBSSports.com's Experts are now picking against the spread?!

It's about time, right? I agreed with many of your past complaints. "Yea, you guys are real experts. It's real tough to pick Florida over Western Carolina State A&M.

I'm all for picking against the spread, but a wise player knows you can't play every single game. You have to pick your spots. Unfortunately, I didn't do too well at that, going 19-23-1 last season.

But let's not forget my Underdog moneyline strategy during the bowl season was a positive 112.8 units.

This season I'll play along -- here on the message board -- with the 2011 experts, which feature some fresh faces, including new Senior Writer Brett McMurphy -- an excellent addition to the CBSSports.com team.

It will be interesting to see how many of the six experts break .500. I'm going to say none ... not when it comes to picking every Top-25 game.

I will include my top plays each week. Could be one, could be more, could be none. You have to pick your spots and I plan to beat that ugly 19-23-1 showing from 2010.

So on to Week 1.
First team listed is my pick

THURSDAY
UNLV +35.5 at No. 11 Wisconsin -- look for backdoor cover while UW plays third-stringers
-- Top handicap play here: Over of 56 -- I'm going to ride UW overs until it kills me this season

No. 20 Mississippi State -27.5 at Memphis -- notice all the experts like the Bulldogs -- that means guaranteed Memphis cover, right?

FRIDAY
At Baylor +5.5 vs. No. 14 TCU -- wouldn't surprise me if Baylor wins
Youngstown State +34.5 at No. 17 Michigan State

SATURDAY
At No. 1 Oklahoma -24.5 vs. Tulsa
Kent State +36.5 vs. No. 2 Alabama
No. 4 LSU -2.5 vs. No. 3 Oregon (at Arlington) -- Rut roh, looks like I'm the only LSU backer here
No. 19 Georgia +3.5 vs. No. 5 Boise State (At Atlanta)
La.-Monroe +29.5 at No. 6 Florida State

San Jose State +28.5 at No. 7 Stanford
At No. 9 Oklahoma State -37.5 vs. La.-Lafayette
At No. 10 Nebraska -35.5 vs. Chattanooga
East Carolina +20.5 vs. No. 12 South Carolina (At Charlotte)
At No. 13 Virginia Tech -25.5 vs. Appalachian State

Missouri State +40.5 at No. 15 Arkansas
At No. 16 Notre Dame -10.5 vs. South Florida
At No. 18 Ohio State -33.5 vs. Akron
At No. 21 Missouri -16.5 vs. Miami (Ohio)
Florida Atlantic +34.5 at No. 22 Florida

Utah State +21.5 at No. 23 Auburn
Minnesota +21.5 at No. 25 USC

SUNDAY
At No. 8 Texas A&M -15.5 vs. SMU
Marshall +20.5 at No. 24 West Virginia

----------------

TOP HANDICAP PLAYS
Thursday: OVER 56 UNLV at No. 11 Wisconsin
Saturday: Middle Tennessee +17.5 at Purdue
Monday:  At Maryland +5.5 vs. Miami

Posted on: December 5, 2010 12:47 am
Edited on: December 5, 2010 12:50 am
 

JR, the Real Expert -- final pix tally

I went 8-3 in Week 14. Even though the Hawaii-UNLV game isn't over, I'm counting it as a win since Hawaii leads 31-7 at the half. Plus, all the experts picked Hawaii. If UNLV pulls off a miracle, I'll update the appropriate records.

My losses this week were Northern Illinois (to Miami of Ohio), Nebraska (to Oklahoma) and Florida State (to Virginia Tech). Congrats to the RedHawks on an thrilling victory and an amazing turnaround from last season's 1-11 showing.

Overall, I closed out the regular-season at 230-74.

So I failed to defend my title and even lost to Darst. Chip Patterson finished first at 236-68; Darst was second at 234-70. The rest of the Experts: Dodd 227-77, Jacobi 225-79 & Horowitz 222-82 -- Again, I will fix if Hawaii loses.

I didn't have any handicapping suggestions this past week, so I finished 19-23-1 there. My deepest apologies.

With Auburn and Oregon headed to the title game, I'd like to point out my Auburn comment from my Week 2 picks.

"No. 21 Auburn over Mississippi State (Tigers my sleeper of the year)"

It's one of the few positives I have from this past season. I was also the only expert to pick South Carolina over then-No. 1 Alabama in Week 6, but I should point out I was wrong when I picked USC to knock of then-No. 1 Oregon in Week 9.

I also picked against Auburn, when ranked No. 2, vs. Georgia in Week 11 and vs. Alabama in Week 13.

As for Oregon, I picked the Ducks to lose to Tennessee in Week 2 and to USC in Week 9 ... so I was obviously wrong there.

But what a fun season it has been.

For the bowl season, I'm going to track an underdog moneyline strategy, which I've done in my blog before.

It's simple. Play all the dogs on the moneyline before the Jan. 1 games. In the past, this usually comes out ahead, not by much, but enough to make the bowl season fun … especially if you hit a +400 or better win-outright dog.

To whatever loyal fans I have, thanks for your time & I hope you enjoyed my picks – even if you were only looking to "go the other way."
JR

Posted on: December 3, 2010 12:56 pm
 

Week 14 pix by JR -- the Real Expert

I went 16-7 in Week 13. My losses were Alabama (over Auburn), Boise State (over Nevada), Penn State (over Michigan State), BYU (over Utah), Iowa (over Minnesota), Mississippi (over Mississippi State) and Pitt (over West Virginia).

My overall record is now 222-71, and I actually picked up a game on Chip Patterson, but still trail him in the overall standings by three games.

Overall standings for the Experts: Chip 226-57, Darst 224-69, me 222-71, Dodd 218-75, Jacobi 217-76 & Horowitz 213-80. With a week to go before the bowl season, it doesn’t look like I’ll successfully defend my title. But we’ll see.

On to Week 14

FRIDAY
MAC Championship: Northern Illinois over Miami of Ohio

SATURDAY
No. 1 Oregon over Oregon State
SEC Championship: No. 2 Auburn 41, No. 18 South Carolina 30
No. 9 Boise State over Utah State
Big 12 Championship: No. 13 Nebraska 38, No. 10 Oklahoma 37
ACC Championship: No. 24 Florida State 23, No. 12 Virginia Tech 21

No. 14 Nevada over Louisiana Tech
No. 23 West Virginia over Rutgers
No. 25 Hawaii over UNLV

C-USA Championship: Central Florida over SMU
Connecticut over South Florida

WEEK 13 HANDICAPPING (3-4)
(Sorry, no suggestions this week)

Wins: Over 43½ (closed at 44½) in TCU 66, New Mexico 17; Over 57½ (closed at 58½) in Wisconsin 70, Northwestern 23; Over 53½ (closed at 54½) in Indiana 34, Purdue 31

Losses: Taking Alabama -4½ in Auburn 28, Alabama 27; Over of 47½ in Texas 24, Texas A&M 17 (closed at 48); Over of 54½ (closed at 57½) in Arkansas 31, LSU 23; Taking Penn State +1½ in Michigan State 28, PSU 22

That makes me 19-23-1 on the year.

Posted on: October 26, 2010 2:45 pm
 

Week 9 picks by JR -- the Real Expert

Boy, did last Saturday's Northwestern-Michigan State game irk me. I really thought the 'Cats would win and upset the No. 8 Spartans. NU fumbled at the 1 in the first quarter and blew a 17-0 lead. MSU took its first lead on a TD with 2:00 left.

But how about another top team (Oklahoma) going down. None of the so-called experts picked Mizzou … nor did they/we pick the Badgers to win in Iowa City.

For Week 8, I went 17-5, losing on OU, NU, Iowa, West Virginia (to Syracuse) and Texas (to Iowa State -- how did this possibly happen?).

I'm 145-39 on the season, remaining one game back of Chip Patterson, who also went 17-5. I passed J. Darin Darst, who went 15-7, and Dennis Dodd, who crashed & burned at 12-10.

Overall standings: Chip 146-38; me 145-39, Darst 144-40, Dodd & Adam Jacobi 141-43 & Jay Horowitz 133-51 … And they kicked me out?!?!?!

On to Week 9
TUESDAY
No. 2 Boise State over Louisiana Tech

THURSDAY
No. 16 Florida State 33, North Carolina State 27

SATURDAY
No. 24 USC 48, No. 1 Oregon 44
No. 3 Auburn over Mississippi
No. 4 TCU over UNLV
No. 18 Iowa 30, No. 5 Michigan State 20
No. 14 Nebraska 44, No. 7 Missouri 30 (Play the over of 55)

No. 8 Utah over Air Force
No. 10 Ohio State over Minnesota
No. 11 Oklahoma over Colorado
No. 13 Stanford over Washington
No. 15 Arizona over UCLA

No. 17 South Carolina over Tennessee
No. 19 Arkansas over Vanderbilt
No. 20 Oklahoma State over Kansas State
No. 22 Miami over Virginia
No. 23 Mississippi State over Kentucky
Texas over No. 25 Baylor

Georgia over Florida (Who would have thought neither would be ranked at this point?)
Central Florida over East Carolina
Texas A&M over Texas

WEEK 8 HANDICAPPING (4-0)
I suggested lay the points in Ohio State 49, Purdue 0 (closed at 24)
 & overs in
Michigan State 35, Northwestern 27 (closed at 51.5)
Stanford 38, Washington State 28 (closed at 64.5)
Nebraska 51, Oklahoma State 41 (closed at 58.5)

I only like one play for the upcoming week (the over in Nebraska-MIzzou). If anything else hits me before Saturday, I'll post below.

Interesting facts: The Longhorns were laying 21, making the Cyclones a nice +975. The Mountaineers were favored by 14 against the Orange.

Posted on: September 30, 2010 2:48 am
 

Week 5 pix by JR -- the Real Expert

Went 21-3 last week, bringing me to 82-16 overall.
That ties me with J. Darin Darst and leaves me three back of the so-called Expert Picks leader Dennis Dodd (85-13).

On to Week 5

THURSDAY
Oklahoma State over Texas A&M

SATURDAY
No. 1 Alabama 28, No. 7 Florida 20
No. 2 Ohio State over Illinois
No. 3 Boise State over – more like quadruple over – New Mexico State
No. 4 Oregon 33, No. 9 Stanford 30 (Possible Game of the Year)
No. 5 TCU over Colorado State

No. 8 Oklahoma 38, No. 21 Texas 28 (Over of 45 looks nice)
No. 10 Auburn over La.-Monroe
No. 24 Michigan State 31, over No. 11 Wisconsin 30 (Like the over of 52)
No. 12 LSU over Tennessee
No. 16 Miami over Clemson (Will ‘Canes burn me again?)

No. 17 Iowa 29, No. 22 Penn State 18
No. 18 USC over Washington
No. 19 Michigan over Indiana (Expect a lot of points. I love the over of 65.5)
No. 23 N.C. State over Virginia Tech (Take the 4 points)
No. 25 Nevada over UNLV

Boston College over Notre Dame (Take the 3 points)
Air Force over Navy

WEEK 4 RECAP (21-3)
Lost on Pitt (boy, do they stink), Texas (I just can’t read UCLA) & Ga. Tech (N.C. State looked pretty good).

Posted on: September 9, 2010 12:44 pm
Edited on: September 16, 2010 1:12 am
 

Week 2 pix by JR -- the Real Expert

I went 22-3 in the first week, losing on Va. Tech, UConn & Fresno.
Ready for Week 2? There are some big games this week.

THURSDAY
No. 21 Auburn over Mississippi State (Tigers my sleeper of the year)

FRIDAY
No. 23 West Virginia over Marshall

SATURDAY
No. 1 Alabama 20, No. 18 Penn State 17
No. 2 Ohio State 34, No. 12 Miami 6
No. 4 TCU over Tennessee Tech (the start of the Frogs’ easy season-long schedule)
No. 5 Texas over Wyoming
No. 6 Nebraska over Idaho

Tennessee over No. 7 Oregon (Notice all the so-called experts like the Ducks)
No. 8 Florida over South Florida
No. 9 Iowa over Iowa State
No. 10 Oklahoma 30, No. 17 Florida State 23
No. 11 Wisconsin over San Jose State

No. 13 Virginia Tech over James Madison (Uggh. At least the Hokies are playing. Boise State taking week off. LAME!)No. 14 Arkansas over La.-Monroe
No. 15 Georgia Tech over Kansas (Jayhawks embarrassed itself last week in 6-3 loss to North Dakota State)
No. 16 USC over Virginia
No. 19 LSU over Vandy (take the 10 points)

No. 20 Utah over UNLV
No. 24 South Carolina 27, over No. 22 Georgia 24 (OT wouldn’t shock me)
UCLA over No. 25 Stanford

Michigan 34, Notre Dame 27
Army over Hawaii
Air Force over BYU

WEEK 1 RECAP (22-3)
Lost one ranked game (Va. Tech) and failed on UConn at Michigan (which resembles a top 20 team, again) Fresno vs. Cincy.

In handicapping suggestions, I was wrong on Ohio State & the under in TCU-Oregon State.

Was correct on taking points in Arkansas State-Auburn and on small hunch of Beavers covering against Horned Frogs.

 
 
 
 
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