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REMEMBER - A MAXIMUM OF 4 LOCKS PER WEEK!
AND A MAXIMUM OF ONE LOCK PER DAY!
LOCK THREAD CONCEPT -
This thread has been created for all of us to share our expertise with everyone else to benefit the group.
THIS IS NOT A PICKING CONTEST!
PLEASE make special note of this!!! If you have an area of expertise - Pac-10, AFC East, Big East, NHL, etc. - please make some LOCK choices from your area of expertise when you have a game you are confident enough in to call it a "LOCK". The difference between a PICK and a LOCK is that a PICK is a game you like, a LOCK is a game that you KNOW. We are here to help each other win. If you are claiming your choice is a LOCK, and you really have NO true knowledge of that game, then you are just cheating us and posting your PICK just for attention and to see your name on the board.
RULES FOR POSTING -
I take it upon myself to donate my time and track everybody's LOCK every day, as long as you agree to do your part by doing a few simple things. I will not track your picks if you do not follow these rules. You are welcome to still post your PICK or card, but unless you do the things below, I won't be putting your LOCK on the spreadsheet.
- Post only 1 LOCK per day. You may post a MAXIMUM of 4 LOCKS per week. A week starts on Monday, and ends on Sunday. Choose NCAA, NBA, NFL, or NHL. You do not have to stay in one sport. Spread them around if you like.
- No "buying" points.
- First half lines are OK. No second half or quarter lines. We want the LOCKS posted early enough so we can all benefit. Time constraints make second half lines too tough to track.
- No other "line-manipulations: like teasers, etc.
- No props.
- No moneylines.
- Hockey and soccer plays need to be -129 or better. No HUGE favorites for LOCKS. If you have a -200 line or something, take the -1.5 goals if you feel like it is still a LOCK.
- Do not try to cheat on lines. We, as a group, are all over the lines and every time someone gives a stinky spread, it is always called out. If the line is off, the LOCK doesn't go into the spreadsheet.
You must give an original explanation as to why you KNOW this LOCK will win. And don't just "stat" us to death. Tell us about the game. And if you are going to try and fool us by cutting and pasting from another website, at least figure out how to remove all the HTML and other garbage. People on this thread are all over the internet and will find your plagiarism. I guarantee it. You can use Last 10, ATS, etc., numbers to support your argument, but stats from a gambling website are not an explanation. They are stats that any of us can get anywhere on the internet. Also, how about if you have actually SEEN the team play that you pick. I'd say that if you haven't seen a team play at least a few times, you can't really be an expert on said team.
FOLLOW THESE RULES AND I WILL TRACK EVERY LOCK YOU POST - FREE OF CHARGE!!!!!!
I will try to get CONSENSUS statistics out before the first tips each day around 3:40 PM, PST. There is no guarantee, however.
Thank you for your understanding and your help in keeping this thread for the benefit of everybody, not just a place for you to blather out random picks and toot your own horn.
Good luck today and let's work together to win some cash!
-USC Holmey
SUNDAY early leans.
Indiana +16.5 strong play
v. tech +5.5
duke +8.5
purdue +6
Holmey,
I appreciate your work here. I can only speak for myself, but I am taking full advantage of our top-lockers!! I have very little-no capping ability of my own, but somehow up consistent units thanks to the talent who share their locks, leans, smiffs, dunks and dekes :) Thanks again all !! Dani
Hollmey thanks for your lock yesterday,next time don't cut it so close that had me on the edge lol.
Soccer card Swiss league starts at 7:30 am
Zuerich-1/2 -140
Young boys -1 1/2 +101 and over 3 -108
Rapid Vienna -128 and over 3 +115 Austria
Twente-Psv over 2 1/2 -108 Dutch
St Etienne-Nantes over 2 -125 France
Fiorentina -1 +114 Italy
Yo, props to Raven and Nail for delivering almost a perfect day for me yesterday! And most of all, USC Holmey for making this all possible. I do not want to forget about all the other great cappers on here as well! Let's keep this rolling and good luck Sunday! Good riddens T.O.!
Early morning "Beer Soccer Parlay": (this is mama so follow with caution)
Soccer - 557 Aalborg BK -175 for Game
Soccer - 807 Arsenal FC -240 for Game
Soccer - 1025 Bayer 04 Leverkusen -215 for Game
Soccer - 1112 AFC Ajax -250 for Game
Soccer - 1160 AC Milan -225 for Game
Soccer - 1757 BSC Young Boys -350 for Game
Hey USC Holmey,
Most days I'm at work and cannot catch all the locks of the days from many of the great cappers. Is there any easy way of viewing all the locks w/ out scanning through all 50 pages each day? Just wondering. Thanks man, keep up the good work. You da man, even if you are a USC fan! (I'm a Bruins fan) This thread is the best thing since sliced bread!
Peace out!
nice mama... always bring a chuckle :)
$$$maker: No strenghts on those soccer pix?
LOCK me up for Denver/Sac over 212
Facts: Denver averages 102.5 on offense and gives up 100, whereas Sac averages 99 and gives up 108.5.
Neither team played on Saturday so legs will not be an issue. Both teams lack of defense and wild offense will cause a lot of turnovers and fastbreak opportunities and both can shoot freethrows as I expect there to be a decent amount of trips to the charity stripe. Dating all the way back to the beginning of December of 08, following a SU loss and a days rest Denver comes out firing. I think all but twice they have managed to go well into triple digits following a SU loss and the heartbreaker @ Utah will give them extra motivation to come out dropping bombs. They are going to be so juiced to score at will after the lockdown they saw in Utah, they are not going to care that Sac gets theirs. And Sac can sure put up points, they have several games going well into triple digits (although they still manage to lose most of them) they can run it up. I would also lean Dever, but they have a way of letting teams get back into it after they take leads and Sac with their new players are working out the kinks so I expect them to play hard for the full game and might get a backdoor cover so a side is a no play for me. I figure about 170 combined FG attempts and around 13 of 30 will be 3's.. As long as these teams shoot around 42% it'll clear the total. (both teams shoot average 45% and give up 45%) GL
As I expect this to be popular with the public, if you agree, grab it at 212 while you can. (112-105 Denver)
LOCK: Boston Celtics - 3 1/2
Last lock of the week, i am 0-3 on locks this week so feel free to fade away. The point guard position is the key difference in this game, Rajon Rondo should destroy Rafer Alston and the Celtics defense in the end will prevail over a much weaker Orlando without Jameer Nelson. Paul Pierce is playing out of his mind and should have another big game while Ray ray has the purest stroke in the game. lock it up boys.
also playing:
(NBA)
Utah -5.5
Denver -7 and OVER 212
will also play Duke +8 1/2 IF and ONLY IF Ty Lawson does not play.
gl all $$$$
Congrats to Raven for his 4-1 day! Also to Holmey for his no doubt lock also! Nail it seems like every Saturday you are hovering around 50 percent. Too many dam games but I like your idea from last night about about betting your best 1 game and best 2nd half plays! That 1 comment when u asked Bowlstar "You were with my wife?" had me in tears! Great commentary and positive vibes make this thread enjoyable to read! GL everybody!
Not a Lock but a strong pick Duke +8.5!
We all know UNC hates playing defense and they are 7-14 ATS there last 21, 5-10 ATS in ACC play, and 2-5 in ACC home games! Lawson is questionable with a toe injury and is less then 100 percent who scored a game high 25 last time these 2 played back in Durham! Duke has won 2 of 3 in UNC so why can't they keep it close? Gl and always remember I am MUSH!
Nail/Holmey/kyprogrc/Shock-N-Yall..
.That's the way to make some lockdown plays my friend..Forgot who it was last night who found the MOST HIDDEN GEM OF THE DAY..PORTLAND-10 over Pepperdine. I think sometimes we focus to much on the bigger schools when they are so many games out there that gets overlooked such as this one last night. Played Holmey & Nails plays HARD which made up for my $hitty day to make it a profitable day. And if we can all say that we had a profitable day at the end..Then I NEVER COMPLAIN! Holmey, I know you get this often, but without you there is no site..Nail, starting to heat up my friend along with Holmey...And that equals out too.....POOR BOOKIES! Best of luck today my friends!
LUV21
My Lock pick is:
Let me start off by saying I totally subscribe to Holmeys theory that you "lock" what you know, and that less lock picks are MORE. My lock pick follows, because I know Duke, and I would stare anybody here in the face and tell them I know Duke better than you do. I said Duke would cover vs. VT, and Maryland, they did. I said they would lose on their home court to NC, and on the road to Wakand they did. I said they would win the rubber match vs. Wake, they did. I guaranteed a win vs. FS, but also said they would not cover vs. FS. I was right. I am a huge fan of their team, and I am 2-1 now on Duke locks (my only blemish coming when Duke won by 9 vs. St.Johns but did not cover the 11 point spread, as they only hit 2 of 8 free throws down the stretch, very un-Dukelike. They took the foot off the pedal on that one, but that's betting.)
I should also let you know that I spent the last 2 days capping this and doing background research. If I stick my gonads out to tell you it's a lock pick, I want to sleep at night and be as true in my own mind as I can be. Know too, that whatever I tell you now, I back up by putting my own money where my mouth is. I am betting on this pick. The St.John's game made me ill, I swear. BUT, don't just take my word for it. Remember, we are betting on the balance of probabilities here. There are no absolutes, whether it's Raven, Nail, whoever. So check out what I say and make up your own minds if you agree. All I can do is steer the boat. Whether you stay on is up to you. Me? I am on ship, and will stay there. I wont tell you this a "Lifetime Lock", but I will tell you this is my "Lock" pick and I feel its a strong one.
This matchup is timeless. Let's look at Duke. They take a 5 game winning streak into NC for this one. Duke likes to push the ball up the floor and capitalize on fast break opportunities. The problem is, North Carolina likes to do this too, and, along with Michigan State, they play this style aswell as anybody in the country. The main reason this game is a bad matchup for Duke is that NC plays this style of game better than Duke does. Up front, I have to give the edge to NC. They have a little more athleticism and depth, even though I love Henderson and Singler for Duke. Duke is a year away from making noise, and NC is a final four team. Duke is an elite 8 team, at best. It pains me to say that, but it is what it is.
Coach K for Duke has went to 5 forwards and with swingman Elliott Williams they have not lost. BUT, if you watch (and if you do watch today I ask you guys to watch closely to see this for yourselves), Elliott Williams can only go to his left, not his right, when cutting. If I see that, bet your bottom dollar NC sees it too on tape.
Another important factor to consider, on the injury front, is that Lance Thomas of Duke left the Florida State game just 3 minutes into it, with what is suspected to be a high ankle sprain. It's serious, and he won't play for the Dukies in this one. He's a key spare for Duke. His absence for them will be a loss. Backup center Zoubek also reportedly suffered a broken nose in the last Florida State game, so his contributions have to have an asterisk next to them. He's limited athletically too, so even if he was 100% who cares? And I say that AS a Duke fan! NC has better depth than Duke does, so these injuries are a significant problem for Duke. Nolan Smith for Duke might play after his concussion, but, even if does, consider that he is talented, but raw. Hes prone to force things and play a little out of control, and is not a good scorer yet (unlike JJ Reddick, where if you even looked at that guy the wrong way a 3 was going up your a$$.) Because of this, even if he plays, I don't think his impact will be much on the game. In terms of Guard play, you give this one to NC, as Ellington and Lawson for NC are more athletic than what Duke can put on the floor.
Consider also that Duke was only 6-20 from 3 point range versus Virginia Tech. In conference games, Duke is shotting 33.7 % from 3 point range, down from 37% last year. This is significant, because, in my mind, the only way Duke can stay in this game, given they are giving up a lot athletically and in talent to NC, is if they go lights out from 3 point range. But this is not the Duke team of featuring guards Duhon-Reddick. Its Paulus, who is scrappy but limited, and Smith, who is green. Scheyer is just a guy. Duke is good from 3 point range, but not GREAT. The numbers bear that out and I dont need to regurgitate them here. You can see those for yourselves. For Duke to win, they would need to be great from 3 point range.
There is a lot at stake here. BUT, unlike, say, last Wins$$day, where bets were made on the assumption that "hey, this team needs to win this game, therefore they will", and we then we watched teams like BC, Kansas, Kentucky lose to teams they should beat, this game will be exempt from that kind of "will they be going for it, or coasting" kind of thought. Dont get me wrong, like I said, a lot is at stake here. If Duke wins, a 1 seed in the tourney is very possible. But it's also senior night at NC. The main reason I say this game is exempt from uncertainty is that NC vs. Duke IS college basketball. The rivalry DEMANDS full effort, and no coasting. They hate each other and will play accordingly, even IF they have nothing to play for. Both teams will play hard, to win, BECAUSE it is NC-vs. Duke. For that reason, I like this play. Hatred is a powerful thing and a great motivator.
The last meeting between these teams was a 101-87 NC win at Cameron. Anyone who saw that game knows Duke played as well as they could, especially in the first half where they were lights out, in front of a home crowd, and still lost by 14, 101-87.
In terms of NC's home wins, it is impressive. Since Jan-21, they have bested: 94-70 win vs. Clemson.; 108-91 vs. Maryland, 76-61 vs. Virginia; 89-80 vs. NC State and 104-74 vs. Georgia Tech (average win by 19 points). last meeting in 08 between these teams, in North Carolina, was an 89-78 Duke win. Do you really think NC will put up 78 in this one? I don't. This might be the most explosive team in all of college ball, and, their defensive deficiencies aside, I think they can turn it on for one game vs. their arch rivals to bring home the bacon.
I predict NC 98, Duke 84. This game will turn in the 2nd half in NC's favour. Bank it.
Da Moose
