I have the #1 pick in my Dynasty League's Rookie Only Draft. Everyone in my League is counting on me drafting Knowshon Moreno, but I believe that Beanie Wells has the brightest future of this years crop of young RB's. Beanie is on a team that has the ability to keep the defense honest and open lanes for him. Plus, I believe he will be a better back inside the 20 than Tim Hightower. Knowshon will have to split carries & I do not think that Kyle Orton scares anyone (especially if Brandon Marshall gets traded). I rank the rookie RB's:
I am looking to pick-up Coffee as my second "Rookie" pickup. If Frank Gore gets hurt, I really like Coffee's chances. He fits that system.
I think Beanie produces more in the short-term (this year and next) than Knowshon. After that, all bets are off. Denver needs to reload, Arizona is primed for now. They offer more support for a Rookie runner.
I view Arizona as Indianapolis before they got Joseph Addai. The year that they drafted Jospeh Addai, they were able to milk the clock and run when they needed to. That lead to Mannings only Super Bowl Title. That formula may just work for Arizona this year.
One thing you need to look at is the type of offense they play in. With Wells in Arizona he will be with a pass first offense, that may limit his touches throughout the year. Also I have some injury concerns with wells, plus Hightower was the goal line back last year and I can't see that changing. Moreno should be the first pick in any fantasy football rookie draft if for no other reason he is a better receiver than Wells and also i believe will get more touches this year.
I have Chris Wells ahead of Knowshon Moreno too, but it's really close. It's not just about how big a piece of the offensive pie each gets, it's about how big that pie is. While Moreno seems to be the man amongst boys in the Denver backfield, the Broncos seem to be in complete chaos right now. With the subtraction of Jay Cutler - and probably Brandon Marshall - from their offense, I don't see anything that would keep an NFL defense from stacking the line against the run. The Broncos get to play in the defensively challenged AFC West, it's true, but the Cardinals play in the NFC West, which is just as defensively offensive.
I think that the upside on Beanie Wells is something like a Brandon Jacobs, including the injuries. While Wells has an injury history, he doesn't have a history of major injury - just lots of little dings. I expect a division of labor similar to what the Giants or the Panthers did last year because Wells and Tim Hightower have similar strengths and styles. Both will get goal line chances, it just depends on whose turn it is in the rotation when they're in the red zone. The worst case scenario - unless he (or Warner) gets seriously hurt or there are offensive line problems - is probably Derrick Ward or Jonathan Stewart type production.
Knowshon seems safer, but the Broncos offense isn't going to be as good so it is actually just as risky. They also have so many runners, Moreno is bound to lose some carries. True, he's virtually assured of being the lead back, and I'd expect about 60% of the work to go Moreno's way. On the downside, Denver has done basically nothing to address the defense from last year, and their offense just subtracted their QB and added a game manager in Kyle Orton. There may not be very many goal line opportunites for Moreno to take, as the Broncos constantly throw from behind. It also alarms me that Moreno was clearly outplayed by Javon Ringer in Georgia's bowl game, despite having an utterly superior team around him.
I guess, when it comes to close calls like this, all I can say is for you to trust your instincts. If you think Beanie is the better player then grab him. As a Buckeye fan, I sincerely hope you're right!
I agree with your list and have some comments too.
1. Beanie Wells-Probably the rookie with the best situation, will benefit from arizona great pass game, as will arizona pass game benefit from a good run game.
2. Knowshon Moreno-IMO, Probably will be the statistical leader this year, but he is team is on the down, probably not a lot of TDS
3. Shonn Greene-Heir apparent in NY, backup this year and starter next
4. LeSean McCoy-Heir apparent in Philly, back up this year with a few games stared due to westbrook injuries
5. Glenn Coffee-Makes a fine backup, but i dont think he is going to surpass Gore anytime soon barring injury.
i must say, i really like Beanie Wells chances...more so than knowshown moreno. devners situatino is just too uncertain, but beanie will be on a team that has soo many scary players that teams won't be playin the run against wells as much as they would the pass. hes gonna get a lot of holes.
next up after that is LeSean McCoy in my opinion....westy will be injured this year, and even if hes not, philly will use him less to make sure they dont risk injury. he will be a great ppr rb as well.
Donald Brown is a workhorse and he proved that last year at UCONN. I think that the Colts do not trust Joseph Addai with being the true feature back and will make a RBBC by week 3 or 4 (if Addai isn't hurt by then). I could see Brown's and Addai's numbers close or even equal by the end of the year.
I agree with Wells one and Moreno two. Then Brown, McCoy, Green and Coffee. Is there any other rookie RB after that worth drafting in a dynasty league?
I'm in a Dynasty League that can lock in our rookies for up to 6 years. Here's how I'm ranking my RB's at this time:
1. Knowshon Moreno - Broncos: He's going to be the man from the 1st snap, and the focal point of a Patriots style offense...I really like this set up. 2. Chris Wells - Cardinals: Will be splitting carries for at least the first 6 games in my opinion, in a passing offense. However, will still have a very good career, and you couldn't go wrong by drafting him 1st either. 3. Donald Brown - Colts: Will probably be taking 50% of the snaps by the end of this season in Indianapolis, and quite possibly taking over once Joseph Addai goes somewhere via free agency. 4. LeSean McCoy - Eagles: Drafted to replace Brian Westbrook...and that's a great place to be...in a year or two. 5. Shonn Green - Jets: How much could Thomas Jones have left in the tank? Will be splitting carries by the end of the season. 6. James Davis - Browns: How much could Jamal Lewis have left in the tank? Will be splitting carries by the end of the season. Didn't I say this already 7. Bernard Scott - Bengals: How long will Cedric Benson hold this kid off. He's fast, strong, good hands...watch out Longhorn boy. 8. Andre Brown - Giants: Will be last years Ahmad Bradshaw...should get some looks, and some cheap yards. He's probably 3 seasons away from being a true focal point. 9. Glenn Coffee - 49ers: A quality RB who is destined to be a career back up for Frank Gore unless an injury comes along.
I hope I was able to help. Stay on top of those OTA's, and leave no stone unturn...and you will be just fine
