As a Patriots fan, this first stretch of games has been a bit troubling at times simply because it really seemed as though there were still a ton of questions that they had not yet answered-- is Tom Brady back? How is the defense going to play considering all the key losses? What's the run game going to look like? Etc., etc., etc... Right now, as a fan, I'm feeling pretty optimistic (1st in the AFC East, 5-2, a defense that looks improved over the last 2 seasons, and Brady, Moss, Welker, and the offense has shown flashes of dominance), but the schedule clearly gets more difficult from here on out, so I'm still taking it on a week-to-wee basis...
Tom Brady : Despite his struggles at times and some huge gaffs in the form of blatant missed throws, Brady has almost quietly put together a very solid resume through the first 7 games-- hitting nearly 2/3 of his pass attempts with 15 TDs and only 4 INT, and on pace for another 4,000 yard season. Based on the last couple of weeks, the doubt that Brady would return to form has subsided (at least in my opinion), but I still see him struggling with consistency a bit. Perhaps I've grown spoiled, but I need to see Tom put up a dominant performance agaisnt a real solid team (the Dolphins off the bye would be a perfect example) before I'm ready to stop worrying about him completely.
The Rest of the Offense: The loss of Fred Taylor hurts... still not sure if he's going to be back. Laurence Maroney came up big versus the Titans, but looked like he took a step backwards when the Buccaneers were focusing on stopping the run). The Patriots haven't exploited Randy Moss the way they did in 07, but Randy is still having a solid season (on pace for another 1k yards, 90+ cathes, and maybe double digit TDs). Wes Welker missed some time, but he is still clearly the engine that keeps the chains moving (on pace to be at/near the top in catches again). I've been dissappointed in the use of Kevin Faulk thus far-- all the guy does is make plays, so let's get him the ball some mroe!-- and the whoel run game in general doesn't seem like it's found any consistency. The o-line was never as good as they were billed to be a couple of years ago, but they are definitely playing solid and have done a real good job protecting Brady thus far, and I've been pretty satisfied by their performance (although they got called for way too many penalties versus the Bucs).
Defense: Still haven't seen much in the form of pass rushing, and this group is far from "dominant," but they have played above expecations as far as I am concerned, and there have been some real bright spots: I think the strong suit for the defense right now is the play from our safeties-- Brandon Meriweather is playing like a pro-bowler (and my opinion on him coming into this year was obvioulsy misguided), and Brandon McGowan has come on and made James Sanders and afterthought-- both guys always seem to be around the ball or able to make a tackle, and I'd love to see some more safety blitzes. Despite the loss of Richard Seymour, the line has played very solid, either in a 3 man or 4 man front, and Vince Wilfork continues to be dominant. The LB position has been okay, but clearly not the same as the days when both Bruschi and Vrabel were in their prime... but Tully Banta-Cain has been a nice surprise, as has Gary Guyton. Other than the fact that the LBs aren't really a "play making" group at this point, I think the weakest link is the CB spot-- they've played solid, and Darius Butler looks like he could be a really solid player in the future, but they seem to be giving up too many big plays for my liking, and I was hoping for a bit more out of Leigh Bodden (but he still has time to improve). Special Teams: Gostkowski is Gostkowski, and it doesn't appear that we are really missing the presence of Lonnie Paxton (though I hated to see him go). They've been okay on kick returns, and shoot me if you want for saying this... but I miss having Ellis Hobbs back there.
Rookies and FAs:Julian Edelman has been huge (hopefully he'll be back for a playoff run in Dec.), Darius Butler has played very well and looks to be working his way into a starting spot, Myron Pryor is contributing, and now that Brandon Tate has been cleared to play, I wouldn't be suprised to see him making some plays as well and hopefully challenge Sam Aiken for that 3rd WR spot. And then of course there is "Sea Bass," Sebastian Vollmer, who has outplayed expectations of being a "project" to really contributing and looing lie he's going to be a potential anchor of the line some day. For FAs, I think McGowan has been the surprise biggest addition, although Bodden and Springs have played solid for the most part. Disappointments for me are obviously the failed Joey Galloway experiment, as well as the fact that Ron Brace hasn't really worked his way into the rotation (and has been outplayed by fellow rookie Myron Pryor), and there was a lot of hype about Pat Chung being a real steal, but so far he's clearly still just a rookie learning the system and not able to really contribute. I wish Tyrone McKenzie had been able to stay healthy as well, but I suppose he'll be a nice addition next season.
Looing ahead: THE NEXT FIVE GAMES ARE HUGE, AND WILL ANSWER ALL THE QUESTIONS AS TO WHAT THIS TEAM IS CAPABLE OF!
11/8: vs Dolphins 11/15: @ Colts 11/22: vs Jets 11/30: @ Saints 12/6: @ Dolphins
Obviously the two games that catch our attention is @ Colts and @ Saints, but the key games are the three division contests. The Dolphins may not make the playoffs, but they have shown that they are a tough well coached team that doesn't give up and is very familiar with the Patriots. If the Patriots want to control their own destiny as far as winning the division, they're probably going to need to win 2 of 3 versus the Jets and Dolphins (with the Jets being the key game). And if they want a shot at a first round bye in the playoffs (at this point, the Colts, Broncos, Steelers, and Bengals are also in the hunt), a win versus the Colts would be HUGE, but at the very least they're going to need to pick up a W versus the Saints.
Beyond those 5 games, the Pats finish out with the Panthers, Bills, Jaguars, and Texans, which at this point look like all winnable games... but if the Pats don't perform over the next 5 game stretch, those games could very easily go from "winnable," to "must win" scenarios.
THE NEXT FIVE GAMES ARE HUGE, AND WILL ANSWER ALL THE QUESTIONS AS TO WHAT THIS TEAM IS CAPABLE OF! Wow you stole my idea for a thread......
We will need to come out of this 4-1 at worse I feel. We must win the Miami Game at home and the Jet game as well. Those are must wins. We can't bwe 0-2 to the Jets or looking at 0-2 versus Miami. We could be the only team to stop the Colts from a perfect season as the schedule ahead for them is very week. And the Saints game will be a fun game. I was wondering about NFC loses for the pats recently last night, and when I looked back we are on a regular season 17-0 run against them. The last lose was Septembr 2005 to the Carolina Panthers. That is pretty impressive. This will have no bearing on playoffs or AFC won/loss playoff scenarios, so a fun game is in store. Who knows maybe we can end 2 teams unbeaten seasons.
Now on to players. Tom Brady had a couple unBrady like picks I felt yesterday, but I will write that off to the surroundings, new stadium, grass and all. Lots of guys slip sliding around. So, I will give him a pass on that and be happy with 9 TD's in 2 weeks
Runnning game - Laurence Maroney was back to unpredictable again yesterday. We will need a running game big time in this 5 game stretch as we are going up against some of the best offense's in the league, where ball control will be a must in keeping guys like Peyton Manning + Drew Brees on the sidelines. Lets hope Sammy Morris + Fred Taylor make it back sometime in this 5 game stretch.
Defense - Well, this has taken some time to get use to, but I finally get it. Speed...Speed...Speed. We are built for Speed. I was among the few who was ascratching my head at some of the defensive moves since the end of last year, but right now, I am amazed at how quickly we have transitioned this defense. We have gotten plenty younger and are playing a new style for the Pats. I like what I see and I think we will only get better.
I'm still waiting for the pass rush as you've mentioned and am pleasantly surprised by our CB play. This may be the strongest unit out there even over the defensive line. When Richard Seymour was traded I thought that may be a problem but they've held it together rather nicely but not dominate like in years past.
I think we beat the Dolphins at home post bye week but the Colt game will be huge because honestly they haven't played really anyone so far that could compete with them. Should be a good barometer for both teams.
Patriots will take 1 out of 2 from the Dolphins, beat the Jets (barely). I forsee a lose to the Colts and possibly the Saints. The Pats can't give up on defense and they certainly will need their running game and a healthy Randy Moss, Tom Brady and Wes Welker.
If you remember correctly, we were very lucky to come away with wins early in the season as the offense struggled mightily. The defense has essentially buoyed the team when it was down. Holding Buffalo from adding more points to give our offense a chance to get back in it and preventing Baltimore from scoring on a potential game-winning drive were huge! This really showed me what a slight margin of error there is in football games; one play can, and usually is, the difference between winning and losing a game.
I now feel with the resurgence of the offense, a weight has been lifted off of the inexperienced but very effective D, which will in turn only make them better. With the many 3-and-outs of the offense in games vs. the Jets and Broncos, the D was on the field for an overly substantial amount of time. The return of the Brady-led offense will only keep them rested and more effective in the coming weeks.
As of right now, this Patriots team is a very solid mix of veteran leadership and young talent. Meriweather is filling Rodney's shoes very nicely. Mayo will continue to improve as an already incredible and intelligent player. If the Pats can string together some consistent offensive perfomances from here on out, everything will fall into place.
The coming weeks will tell all. While they may not beat the remainder of the schedule to the degree of the Titans/Bucs, maintaining that offensive effectiveness, big play explosiveness and defensive turnovers will be key throughout the second half of the season. If they maintain this confidence, this will work.
We have an all-too familiar rival in the Colts coming up and a Saints team playing out of their minds, both being road games. Wow. If we can get a W in at least one of these, we'll be fine. Win them both and we suddenly return to familiar territory; being the team to beat in the AFC. This is hardly impossible; with Belichick at the helm they are never out of a game. This will be fun!!
I agree with everyone else about the Patriots needing to get the running game going. Versus the Buccaneers, it seemed like they were really making an effort to stop the run-- even BJGE wasn't able to plow ahead for more than a couple of yards at a time. I'm not counting on Fred Taylor being back anytime too soon (there were conflicting reports as to the severity of his ankle surgery... but the good news is that the Pats didn't put him on IR... yet).
As someone else pointed out, having a solid running game so the Pats can play ball controll offense against some of the high-powered teams will be key (both to keep Manning, Brees, etc. off the field, but also to give their D a rest). If the RBs as a group can average 4+ yds/carry (as they did last season), I think they should be okay (assuming the run plays are incorporated into the play-calling properly... which is another concern I still have).
As for the next 5 game stretch, truthfully I think the Patriots could go 2-3, and still have a legitimate shot at the AFC East Title (assuming all 3 losses don't come to the Dolphins and Jets), but they would definitely need some help. At the same time, if they were to go 2-3 and still make the playoffs, would they really be a SB contender? No. My hope is that they can at worst go 3-2, with one of those wins being against the Colts or Saints. I'm hesitant to say it, but I do think this team has a real chance to go 4-1 (and perhaps 5-0), so long as guys like Matt Light and Sammy Morris can get healthy and the defense doesn't sustain any major injuries.
Looking at the Colts, for example, yes, they are 6-0 and deserve credit-- they are clearly playing at an elite level, as should be expected. But look at who they have beaten: Jaguars (14-12), Dolphins (27-23), Cardinals (31-10), Seahawks (34-17), Titans (31-9), Rams (42-6). Those teams have a combined record of 11-26, with the only 2 teams with non-losing records being the Jaguars (3-3), and Cardinals (4-2).
To be fair, it is worth noting that the Patriots 5 wins are versus teams with a combined record of 10-22. But the point is that I don't think Indy has proven that they are as big and bad as people think they are. They are a beatable team. So while my first thought when looking at Indy was "Oh no, they're going to walk all over us," I'm honestly think they're both playing at about the same level... in which case, wouldn't you have to tip your cap to Belichick over a rookie HC?
The other thing I realized when looking at schedules and standings is just how good the Dolphins really are. They nearly beat the Colts, and pushed the Saints around the field for much of the game yesterday. I've said before in another thread, I don't see the Dolphins making the playoffs, but they almost scare more more than the Saints and Colts at this point.
The other thing I realized when looking at schedules and standings is just how good the Dolphins really are.They are one tough physical team Beers. I watched the game the other day and was suprised as to just how hard hitting it was. The problem is at QB...Henne didn;t seem ready and they are relying on the "Wildcat" way too much. I have to give credit to the Saints coaching staff. Rarly have I ever seen a better job of adjusting at halftime as their defense did. Once they made the adjustments in the second half, Miami was stuck. I think ths Pats made the adjustments last year, but not during game 1 it took till they played again.
...wouldn't you have to tip your cap to Belichick over a rookie HC? Usually, yes. but this is a rookie HC with Peyton Manning and homefield advantage (as usual). Manning is not known as the second best QB for naught.
By the way, how many times does the golden child need homefield advantage? I'm probably wrong, but it seems like they play every year in Indy
Prior to 2002 they played a game at each since they were divisional rivals. Since then, discounting playoff games for the obvious reasons, the Patriots have hosted Indy 3 times and played @Indy 3 times.
Indy hosted in 2003, New England hosted in 2004, 2005, and 2006, and Indy hosted in 2007 and 2008.
This will break the tie in Indy's favor, and yes, it will be 3 consecutive trips to Indy for us, but it was 3 consecutive home games before that.
Runnning game - Laurence Maroney was back to unpredictable again yesterday. We will need a running game big time in this 5 game stretch as we are going up against some of the best offense's in the league, where ball control will be a must in keeping guys like Peyton Manning + Drew Brees on the sidelines. Lets hope Sammy Morris + Fred Taylor make it back sometime in this 5 game stretch. You are so right Knox! The run game is one of my main concerns right now. While Laurence Maroney seems to always be hesitate at the line of scrimmage, and likes to tip toe here, and tip toe there, I want single him out just yet. The Pats run offense has been far from impressive to me lately, especially in the last game against the Buccaneers. Was there even a run game? I was not impressed at all. This Pats offense will need to start blocking a whole lot better, or the Pats run game will continue to be somewhat stagnant.
Defense to me is showing alot of intensity and I like the speed out of this group so far. All games going forward will be a battle for this Patriots team, and they will need to be at their best to win the remainder of the games on their schedule, but it is possible.
Good to see you, and tell Pin hello for me, and let her know she's not the only one suffering in our FF league. I think her record is the same as mine. ugg
Good to see you, and tell Pin hello for me, and let her know she's not the only one suffering in our FF league. I think her record is the same as mine. ugg Hey Red Pin says hey and hope's all is well with you. Her FFB frustrations are at a fever pitch (lol)
The Colts can be had, look at the way the 49ers played them yesterday, a good sound running game and a defense like I had not seen before. They were waiting till after Peyton locked in his play at the line of scrimmage and then they adjusted. So he did his signal calling as usual, walked up under center and then SF. jumped to their defense. It really seemed to mess him up all day. Leave it to Mike Singeltary...It was nice to watch.
I think Guyton has been indispensible in keeping the D together in the absence of Mayo (including against some good offenses in ATL and BAL). I like the D going forward, but the IND and NO games will really tell us how much they have improved. If they can keep both of those teams to under 30 I think the Pats can win both games.
BUT
What really concerns me is the offense. Brady, who has never been as good against teams with good cover CBs and can afford to throw the kitchen sink at him on the blitz (DEN, BAL, MIA, IND lately), has been exposed several times this year because his accuracy is off just enough as he recovers from the injury that even teams with modest cover ability have been blitzing the bejeezus out of Brady with success. When the quick passes are off-target, the offense is 3-and-out. And when Welker has not been there, the offense has stagnated. With all the other weapons, that should not be happening. Brady uses Welker like his Binky, and when he is not there Brady looks confused and average, which scares the bejeezes out of me.
You look at the offenses of IND and NO and they remind you of that old ESPN catchphrase "you can't stop them, you can only hope to contain them." You can keep them down for a while, but they will eventually roar back. I look at the NE this year (and even going back to the SB against the Giants) and I see an offense that if you take them out of what they want to do, they are unable to adjust and beat you in another way. They remind me (and I have said this before) of the Colts in the early 2000s. It will be the offense that gets us as far as we will go this season. The defense will hold up its end of the deal.
We will need to come out of this 4-1 at worse I feel
I will disagree with this assessment. I say 3-2 and the Patriots are still fine. That would leave them at 8-4 heading to soft part of the schedule. 12-4 should be expected. Denver will come back to earth but they hold the tie breaker and I dont think the Pats will catch Indy for top record so I figure they'll be playing a wild card team in the 1st round.
I still cant believe they made that Seymour trade. Belichek drives me insane sometimes. Especially right before the season starts. Just stupid.
Offense I think is coming around. Welker being out killed Bradys rythym and he is his go to guy.
I agree. I have IND 14-2 and DEN at 12-4 as the top 2 seeds (DEN over NE by H2H tiebreaker), NE 12-4 as the 3 and then either PIT/CIN as the 4 at 11-5 (one being the division champ and the other the top WC based on obscure tiebreakers), with the last WC spot coming down to 10-6 MIA or BAL, which should finish 11-5 but is so inconsistent that I see a bad L along the way, making the last spot a tiebreaker decision between MIA and BAL at 10-6.
I see NE over MIA in Foxboro and PIT over CIN in Cincinnatti
Then IND over PIT in Indianapolis and NE over DEN in Denver as a huge underdog, which will piss them off.
And finally, NE over IND in Indianapolis with their 87 starters currently out back from injury.
Then NE vs. NO for the SB, which I can't call until after there upcoming game. If it is a close game in Nov, NE wins in Feb, but if NO wins big, confidence on their side will go a long way in determining the rematch.
