Steve & Steve's Patriots Dolphins Matchups

Steve played 14 seasons for the Patriots as an ILB and was voted to the Pro-Bowl 3 times. He retired with 1776 career tackles (a nice number for someone associated with anything Patriots!) He averaged 10.2 tackles a game for his entire career. He led the team in tackles in 8 of his 14 seasons. He was also voted as the starting ILB for the Patriots 50^th Anniversary Team.

 Steve has graciously agreed to give us some of his expertise as he’s taking this season off from his normal television spot on the Patriots pre-game and Patriots 5^th Quarter post game show. Steve is a great addition to the team here and we welcome him for the football season.

 Patriots Running Game-

Consistency remains elusive for the Patriots running game by committee. After a big game against the woeful Titans, they went against an even worse run defense of the Buccaneers and had a lot of trouble getting untracked. Miami overall is solid against the run, their front seven is big, physical and work well together to stop the run.

 To run on this defense, they will have to pass effectively to loosen them up and search for gaps. The Dolphins average giving up only 92.4 yards per game and Laurence Maroney, Kevin Faulk and Ben Jarvus Green-Ellis will find it tough going all day. The Patriots average 115 yards per game on the ground and will have to find ways to keep the defense from teeing off with its pass rush by mixing it up.

Patriots Passing Game-

Here is the obvious advantage for New England, the Dolphins corners are young and can be had if, and the definitive word is if Tom Brady is given time to throw. Last week against the Jets, Miami in the second half wasn’t able to generate much of a pass rush and Mark Sanchez was able to pass for over 200 yards.

 If the Patriots offensive line is able to give Brady that kind of time, then the Patriots WRs, Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Brandon Tate, Sam Aiken and TE Ben Watson will eat them alive. With CB Will Allen lost for the season, Sean Smith and Vontae Davis are young and are improving every week but left on an island against Moss and Welker, they will struggle as badly as they did against the Colts and Saints, who possess similar passing attacks.

 Jason Taylor will be key here, can Sebastian Vollmer with help contain him? Taylor has sacked his good pal Tom Brady more than anybody else in the NFL. Joey Porter had a huge game last year in Foxboro. Bottom line here is, if Brady gets time to throw consistently, then the Dolphins are in trouble because their offense isn’t designed to strike quickly.

 One key member for the Pats may be Watson, last season in Miami, the Fins tried to cover Moss singularly and the results were disastrous. Moss had 8 recpts for 125 yards and 3 TDs. With the young guys at corner, it’s doubtful they do that again. With Moss and Welker possibly doubled, it may free Watson on a LB down the seam. There are few if any LBs that can run with him and could present big plays down the seam of the Dolphins zones. If the Patriots pick on one particular corner, it may be Smith. The Pats come into this game averaging 291 yards per game passing and have finally seemed to find their rhythm between Brady, Moss and Welker. Miami has averaged giving up 236 yards per game. This is the big advantage for New England.

Dolphins Running Game-

This is the key to the game, if the Dolphins (153.4 yds per game) can run the ball effectively, it will take time off the clock and keep Brady and the Pats offense off the field. Last season they gashed the Patriots defense, who were woefully unprepared for the Wildcat when first unleashed. The Patriots come in giving up 109.4 yards per game on the ground and will have to bring their “A” game to slow up the power running of the Fish.

 Of course it all starts with Vince Wilfork, if he can penetrate the OL and get the tandem of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams running laterally, it will allow the Pats LBs of Jerod Mayo, Gary Guyton and Adalius Thomas to make plays. Otherwise the Fins will run by T Jake Long and make life miserable for the Pats. Another key will be the absence of Jarvis Green, who had surgery for a torn meniscus this week and is expected to miss 2-4 weeks. With him out it will affect their run defense and their pass rush. Mike Wright will have to step up and play well. Ron Brace may be activated and get some reps.

 Miami will get their yards running the football, they have arguably the best tandem of running backs in the league. The key will be once they reach the red-zone. If the Patriots can stall them in the red-zone and force them to try for FGs, it will go a long way in determining who wins or loses.

Dolphins Passing Game-

The Dolphins have an average passing game at best, the WR core group of Ted Ginn, Greg Camarillo, Brian Hartline and TE Anthony Fasano have all struggled at times especially holding on to the ball. Chad Henne has played fairly well but hasn’t been asked to do too much. The Fins average only 152 yards per game thru the air.

 This week, they may attempt to open things up with some shots down the field, perhaps catching the Patriots overplaying the run especially in 2^nd and 3^rd downs with a short way to go. The other Wildcard in the Wildcat is Pat White. He hasn’t thrown much so far this year, could this be the week he throws some passes? Possibly, one thing is for sure the Fish will not be shy about pulling out the stops for this game.

 A big pleasant surprise this season for the Patriots has been the play of the revamped secondary. Brandon Merriweather and Brandon McGowan have solidified the middle of the field and the corners of Leigh Bodden, Darius Butler and Jonathan Wilhite have played very well. Pat Chung may see some significant time in support of the running game. The Patriots defense comes in allowing only 176.3 yards per game via the pass.

Special Teams-

The Dolphins’ Ted Ginn had a day for the ages last Sunday against the Jets. On a day where the offense gained only 104 yards, Ginn had a kickoff return for 100 yards. Not to be undone, he had another for 101, completely turning the game around winning a game they otherwise wouldn’t have had a chance at.

 His returns will get plenty of attention this week in the Patriots film room. Stopping him from a big return will be key. Brandon Tate and Wes Welker have done a good job for the Patriots in recent games on kick and punt returns. As Tate becomes more comfortable out there after missing all of pre-season, he should assert himself as a dangerous kick returner.

 The Pats should have an advantage in the kicking game with Stephen Gostkowski over Dan Carpenter. Neither team has shined in coverage so far this year.

X Factors-

The Dolphins have pulled themselves off the carpet after a disastrous 0-3 start. With a win this week, they put themselves right back into the thick of the division’s race. They would be tied with the Jets at 4-4 and having beat the Jets twice would own the tie-breaker. They would be only a game behind the Patriots and more importantly would go to 4-0 in division play another huge tie-breaker in the long run. They’ve proven themselves resilient and tough and come into this game confident and ready for 60 minutes. Head coach Tony Sparano was quoted last Sunday after the Jets game as saying the “Division goes back thru us”.

Rest assured, that quote was posted on the New England bulletin board this week prominently by Bill Belichick. He is a master of providing that extra spark of emotion for his team every week. The trash talk that permeated the game last week has been conspicuously absent this week. Sparano has said he doesn’t like it and Belichick always acts like his opponent has a defense like the ’76 Steelers and an offense like the ’99 Rams whomever the Patriots play.

 But both teams are well aware at what is at stake this week. A Patriots victory will put them two games up on the Jets and three on the Dolphins. Expect a hard-hitting tough divisional game where both teams know each other well.

Summary-

SB-This one will go into the fourth quarter as these teams go at each other. I think the key to a Patriots victory will be giving Tom Brady time to throw. If he gets time to survey the field like sanchize did last week, Moss and Welker will find gaps against those young corners. Watson may be the dark horse candidate to again have some big plays for the offense.

Defensively, they must stay at home and fill the gaps, if they over-pursue in the running game, Brown and Williams will cut back and get huge chunks of yardage. They will use McGowan in support of the running game and single up the Fin’s WRs and dare Henne to throw.

SN-This is a game that the Patriots should win unless they beat themselves. The Dolphins will have to bring a lot of pressure by Jason Taylor and Porter or Brady will pick that young secondary apart. The Patriots will also have to guard against giving up the big play on Special Teams that lost the Jets the game last week.

The Key to the game as I see it is the Patriots ability to stop the run. The Dolphins are excellent at running the football and the Patriots have not been great at stopping the run so far this season. But they’ve had two weeks to prepare for this and Bill Belichick is great at taking away at what you do best and forcing you to do something else. If the Patriots can force the game into Henne’s hands, the young QB isn’t ready to take the reins of a game yet, plus the fact that their recievers aren’t a top group and the Pats should be in good shape. The matchups on offense should give the Pats a good edge here.

 A tough game ultimately decided by Brady and Co.  Both SB and SN agree on the same score Patriots 31-20

So the second half of the season finally begins, to quote Monty Python, lets… Get On With It!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l1YmS_VDvMY

We will bring the post-game wrap and analysis on Monday, until then It is what it is...