SD is in a far stronger bargaining position than Toronto. Halladay has come out and made clear he will not resign after this year. Toronto is not going to be a contender in 2010 with Halladay, so they HAVE to move him or get nothing in return.
SD, on the other hand, is going nowhere fast and could trade Gonzalez, but the reality of him being the only draw they have means that they have to asking WAY too much in return. Boston's cupboard is bare, with no MLB-ready players on the horizon until 2011 at the earliest...IF they ever even pan out at all. Trading every prosepect they have left for Gonzalez would turn them into the Yankees of the last decade - no farm system and only the ability to bring in overpriced FAs. While NY could afford that option, Boston can not.
Beckett is gone after 2010, so getting Halladay would give you one year to win a 3rd title with this team before completing the youth movement and taking a slight step back in 2011 with Lester & Bucholz & and an older Halladay, with maybe Casey Kelly. But a 2010 rotation of Halladay, Lester, Beckett, Buchholz and my grandmother would be the early favorite for 2010 . The offense was spotty, but better once V-Mart came along. I think with that rotation you could squeeze another year out of Lowell and Papi and still afford to lose Bay and bring in a cheaper FA for affordable money.
Bay is a good player and a nice guy, but he had 2+ great months and 3+ horrible months. He is way to inconsistent, and strikes far too often. With Borass whispering in his ear he is asking for ridiculous money, and anyone signing him to 4-5 years at 15+ per year will be mocked like Boston for the horrible JD Drew contract. Bay will be 32 next season, and he isn't going to get better with age. Tying up long term resources in a (streaky) aging hitter is not a good long-term plan. Just look at how much the Drew, Lowell and Ortiz contracts hindered Boston's front office this past year. I hope they don't make the same mistake again.
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Trade for Halladay, not Gonzalez, and let Bay go
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Trade for Halladay, not Gonzalez, and let Bay go
I understand what you are saying and agree with your logic, but the problem is that even though Halladay is a year away from free agency, the Blue Jays aren't just going to give him away, and especially not to a division rival. He would cost the Sox Buchholz and essentially the rest of their farm system. The Phillies walked away from a deal because of Toronto's (Ricciardi is gone) insistence on getting Drabek and Happ in a deal. Buchholz would essentially replace Drabek, but we don't have a J.A. Happ on the roster or in the minors that we would trade. We would have to make up for that with some prospects such as Casey Kelly, Ryan Westmoreland, Lars Anderson, and Michael Bowden. They might even have to include Daniel Bard.
Is it worth it for a year of Halladay? If I knew we would win it all in 2010, I might say yes, but there is still no guarantee. For all of the money the Yankees spent, they still could have lost if the Angels didn't implode or if Charlie Manuel was a smarter manager. I would rather re-sign Beckett beyond this season and keep our farm system intact. We could then sign a lesser pitcher (Justin Duchscherer, Ben Sheets, or Rich Harden) to help fill out the pitching staff. Our offense was anemic at times and with Ortiz, Lowell, and Varitek's best day's behind them, and still waiting for Drew's to arrive (but never come), we need to address the offense for the present and future.
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Trade for Halladay, not Gonzalez, and let Bay go
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Trade for Halladay, not Gonzalez, and let Bay go
Whitestar while I like the idea of getting Roy Halladay the points Rokket makes are more realistic. Halladay is not so young either, he is 32 next summer and their is no guarantee the Red Sox would sign him to an extension so its a lot to gamble on for him in my opinion.
With Adrian Gonzalez he is still relatively cheap and is around 26/27 age wise so he would be around for a long time to come, long term trading for him is the better option in my opinion.
I was all for the Sox signing Ben Sheets last year before the injury so would welcome signing him again, or Rich Harden to compete for a spot in the rotation.
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Trade for Halladay, not Gonzalez, and let Bay go
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Trade for Halladay, not Gonzalez, and let Bay go
IMO....................we need hitting for more than pitching. Remember we lost and 18-3 starter for virtually the whole year. I do agree, I don't think Gonzalez is the answer having to give up to much for him, from nothing in the minors. We do need at LEAST one more solid bat, maybe two.
Bay needs to stay along with Alex Gonzalez at short or possibly Marco Scutaro. Sign or trade for another bat that can give us a couple of decent years, steady years. Not a marque player that will break the bank. I think Papi will have a somewhat more consistent year next year hitting about the same homers as well as driving in the same runs. Lowell's hip will feel that much better, for one last year. BTW..........I don't believe Boras is Bay's agent.
Theo has mentioned there might not be any significant moves at all next year, meaning he will wait until the Papi and Lowell money comes off the books. I look for him to bottom feed, which is his MO. Third place I feel we will end in 2010, in the AL East.
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Trade for Halladay, not Gonzalez, and let Bay go
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Trade for Halladay, not Gonzalez, and let Bay go
Whitestar very interesting post but I agree with Rocketmn. Hallday would cost us buckholz and more so your anaylsis of halladay and buckholz and company is off. The smart play is to re-sign beckett and keep buckholz to pitch or as part of another deal.
That being said the sox should still attempt to get halladay. Toronto is not stupid. they are not simply going to let him walk. they will take teh best deal available just like the Mets did for santana. if that deal included buckholz but did not banrupt the farm I would do it in a second for two reasons. first, halladay is a great pitcher and buckholz looks great but is yet to prove himself. he may be great but will he dominate like hallday? don't think so. second, and this is the more important reason, you MUST keep halladay from the Yankees. if we get him before he hits the open market we are not only getting better ourselves but we are preventing the competion from improving. that is huge. that is a "double" win. that is not a personal statement about how I feel about the Yankees. it is simple "business". you get stronger AND prevent your opponent from getting stronger.
if however, halladay goes elsewhere I am happy re-signing becket and keeping buckholz.
as for Bay, I am with you. bay will be worse than drew if we sign him long term. he is streaky and doesn't strike "fear" (just my opinion) in the hearts of other teams. solid player but not that huge stick we are lacking.
real question is if he isn't who is?
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Trade for Halladay, not Gonzalez, and let Bay go
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Trade for Halladay, not Gonzalez, and let Bay go
In response to dbldwn I believe that its all going to come down to money in regards to who we grab; also I believe that if we are " looking for a stick that will strike fear" then the BoSox should really look into getting Holliday to play left rather than Bay. As for a SP I think that we should go after Lackey who is a free agent rather than Halladay who is going to cost us prospects which there are not any that I would want to give up for Halladay who we may have for 1 year and then hes going to test FA market--he has already made that clear. Lackey will cost $$$ but we still will be able keep our prospects. If we are gonna give up prospects for any player I believe that we should to do it for 1B Gonzalez from the Padres; he is young talented and we could lock him up for years--move Youk to 3B and Gonz play 1B. The only player worth alot of prospects would be Mauer, and I think the Twins would be asking way too much for him and they are gonna throw boats of cash at him and use his hometown to get him to stay..from what I have read he would be looking at Texiera money..but again we could lock him up for many years.
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Trade for Halladay, not Gonzalez, and let Bay go
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Trade for Halladay, not Gonzalez, and let Bay go
I may be wrong about this, but doesn't Halladay have a full no-trade clause? I remember there being talk about that in the discussions before the deadline this season. If he does, then my hope would be that he can force Toronto to trade him where he wants to go. If he makes it clear he will only OK a trade to one or two teams, then Toronto has to lower their demands to get anything for him before he walks. I think Boston was on the short list of teams he was willing to go to this past year, so they would probably be again this time around. Does anyone know the specifics of his contract? I don't know whether full no-trade clauses only apply to in-season trades or anything like that...
As for his age...yes, the mileage on his arm scared me at the deadline, since he was just coming back from surgery at the time. But he was his usual self down the stretch, and I think he is just physically different. I think he is going to be able to pitch longer than most guys do simply because he won the genetic lottery. So I am less worried about locking him up for 3-4 years than I would be about any hitter of the same age or Beckett, given the injuries and performance decline we have seen in him since 2007. Plus the RS offseason program for pitchers is the best in baseball, and that has to be a plus for us when he is thinking about where he wants to go...
And I just remembered who I left out the first time: Halladay, Lester, Beckett, Buchholz, Matsuzaka. They would have a hard time not winning 105 games in 2010 with that rotation, even in the AL East. Dice-K showed me something in flashes when he came back late. There were times when he looked like he was pitching the way they asked him to from the start - pounding the strike zone aggressively and not being afraid to pitch to contact. If he learns from the success he had doing that, then he could be a very good pitcher next year. Imagine a 19-game winning 5th starter!
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Trade for Halladay, not Gonzalez, and let Bay go
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Trade for Halladay, not Gonzalez, and let Bay go
Whitestar normally I would agree with going after a top pitcher and the only way I like this is if the Red Sox go to the Mariners and offer a lot for Felix Hernandez or the Royals for Zack Greinke. This is because both are young, look like they could dominate for years and will be with the Red Sox for years if they trade for them. With both of them the Red Sox have shown interest previously, they tried to get Greinke last offseason and Hernandez at the trade deadline.
That all being said I think the Sox need hitting more than pitching, the offensive side of things looked damn right awful at times so bigger bats are needed in my eyes, Matt Holliday by free agency and Adrian Gonzalez by trade and the Red Sox are loaded with bats through the order.
I think they need another pitcher so whether they could trade for one such as Jonathan Papelbon for Carlos Zambrano from the Cubs was a rumour I have heard and think is a good deal for both sides in my opinion or sign Justin Duchscherer or Rich Harden or Ben Sheets any would be welcome but I like that trade idea as Billy Wagner and Daniel Bard share the closer role and shouldn't hurt the bullpen to much by doing so.
I don't see much happening in reality maybe one or two moves but nothing big, I fear this offseason will be like last year quiet for the Red Sox and the closest competition gets better.
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Trade for Halladay, not Gonzalez, and let Bay go
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Trade for Halladay, not Gonzalez, and let Bay go
The Sox are high on Aroldis Chapman and interested in Harden. If they can land both of them, they would have enough pitching depth to move Buccholz & Lars as the main pieces of a package for Adrian Gonzalez. I have read they are also interested in Scutaro.
CF - Ellsbury 2B - Pedroia 1B - Gonzalez 3B - Youk LF - Bay C - V-Mart DH - Ortiz RF - Drew SS - Scutaro
P - Beckett P - Lester P - Dice-K P - Chapman P - Harden/Wakefield
That is a pretty deep lineup and rotation. If they can find an effective LH reliever to take Wagner's spot in the pen, this would be a significant improvement to a team that won 95 games.
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Trade for Halladay, not Gonzalez, and let Bay go
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Trade for Halladay, not Gonzalez, and let Bay go
Everything I have read about Chapman recently centers on his maturity level. Many do not believe that he is ready to pitch in the majors despite a "102 mph" fastball. That is my first concern. My second is that does anybody really know anything about this kid? Remember that Hideki Irabu was the Japanese Roger Clemens? Or that Jose Contreras was also highly touted? Or the "gyroball" that Dice-K supposedly threw?
My point is that we shouldn't get all giddy and throw tons of money at this kid when he is clearly a mystery. This is not a college kid that the scouts were able to watch on a game by game basis and get to interview. He comes with as more risk than he does upside.
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Trade for Halladay, not Gonzalez, and let Bay go
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Trade for Halladay, not Gonzalez, and let Bay go
Whitestar normally I would agree with going after a top pitcher and the only way I like this is if the Red Sox go to the Mariners and offer a lot for Felix Hernandez or the Royals for Zack Greinke. I couldn't agree more. This is the way you want to go if you are going to mortgage your farm system. Though I doubt either would be available (Seattle wants to keep Felix, and I think Greinke signed an extension with KC), these are the types of moves that Theo should try to make. That is why a guy like Gonzalez makes sense. He is cheap over the next 2 seasons ($4.5mm in 2010; $5.5mm in 2011), and that would give us the chance to lock him up longer like we did with Pedroia, Youkilis and Lester. Giving up prospects in a deal like that makes more sense for the long term.
I would much rather spend some money on free agents to fill the holes than trade away our prospects for Roy Halladay for one season, AND still give him a boatload of money to re-sign. One thing you have to look at is that after 2010, the contracts of Lowell ($12mm), Ortiz ($12.5mm), and Lugo ($9mm) drop off the books. Theo can take the stance to increase payroll this off-season while trying hard to win next year, knowing that he will get $33.5mm of payroll relief in 2011.
Ideally, the Sox trade for Gonzalez, sign Bay or Holliday, and then sign a pitcher (Duchscherer, Harden, or Sheets). We would be like the Yankees, but until MLB and the other owners put a stop to their spending it may be the only way we can compete.
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Trade for Halladay, not Gonzalez, and let Bay go
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Trade for Halladay, not Gonzalez, and let Bay go
The things I have read about this kid is that he is at least 2 or 3 years away from the majors. We still don't need pitching, although if something decent comes along Theo (the bottom feeder) Epstein should take a look at. We need solid hitters, Bay and at least one other. I'm sure Theo has something up his sleeve.
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Trade for Halladay, not Gonzalez, and let Bay go
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Trade for Halladay, not Gonzalez, and let Bay go
I think Whitestar makes some excellent points in the post. I do like Roy Halladay. Rumour has it that Ricciardi turned down an offer of Buchholz, Bard, Bowden, and a couple of other pitchers. If true, they won't be making such a generous offer to Ricciardi's successor for Roy Halladay. They would have to attempt to sign him before the deal is made and I think Halladay may use his no trade clause to secure a long term deal. Not sure Halladay is coming here.
I'm not sure Adrian Gonzalez is coming either, but its worth a short. I think the Padres have this guy for 2 more years at most and unless they feel he'll take a home town San Diego discount, he probably won't stay, all indications are that he doesn't want to lose and SD won't be winning for awhile. The Red Sox don't have much to offer on the offensive side of the ledger though. They could offer Casey Kotchman, one more year before he's a FA, Jeremy Hermidia and maybe Lars Anderson plus one pitcher .. .might be tempting for San Diego, but more likely they decline that.
As for Jason Bay, this is a really tough call. Yes, David Ortiz and Mike Lowell are aging overpaid stars, but for Lowell it boils down to injuries and for Papi, it may be at least partially his weight. Jason Bay has never been injury prone and appears to be in good shape. Yes, he had some big droughts this year, but all power hitters do. I lean towards bring him back but its not my money being put out there. If they don't get him, there better be a plan bigger than Hermidia.
Id like to see the sox make a run at Adrian Gonzalez or Felix Hernandez. If either move is made, and we will only have the prospects to make one of the trades, Halladay wont be coming to Boston. Of the 2, I like Gonzalez more, but I dont think you can go wrong either way. It will take nearly all of the Red Sox farm system to make one of these trades happen, but IMO it is worth it. How many highly touted prospects never pan out? In Gonzalez and Hernandez you have young, premier players that have already proven their worth. The Lars Andersons, Bowdens and even Buckholzs' of the world are exciting players with a lot of talent but it remains to be seen how they will play on the mainstage. I feel that going for the proven player in this situation is a wise move.
I would also like to see the Red Sox resign Josh Beckett.
I hope they can work out a deal with Alex Gonzalez even after they declined his option.
I think Harden is worth a look, and for the right contract, maybe 1yr, 6-8 mil with club option for additional years, I think it is a gamble worth taking
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Trade for Halladay, not Gonzalez, and let Bay go
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Trade for Halladay, not Gonzalez, and let Bay go
There are many factors that the Red Sox have to deal with before they make any deal.
One...they made Jason Bay a perfunctionary offer....$60M for 4 years. They really don't want to go 5. Word is that they are willing to go to $17.5M but will drag it out. Problem here is that the Yankees will not resign Matsui and want Bay. It appears that they will offer him 5 years for $90M. That leaves the Red Sox out. If this happens, then it's look at Matt Holliday and deal with SCott Borasshole****. This won't fly of Borasshole**** sticks with the 7 years/$160-$180M sillyputty demand.
Two - Felix Hernandez. The road has been prepared and the Mariners want Bowen, Bucholz and Bard. It's early and the they're pricey but will come down. Me thinks to get this done, it will cost the Red Sox Bucholz and Lars Anderson.
Three - Adrian Gonzalez. With a former Red Sox Ass't GM taking over in San Diego and new ownership, me thinks this will get expensive, but Theo loves Gonzalez and will overpay. Theo's MO is to jump too hard for guys he likes like Renteria and Lugo. Bard and couple of minor leaguers. There is the possibility of Josh Beckett being dealt in this deal. The Sox know he isn't going to resign n Boston and don't want him going away without something in return.
Four - Hanley Ramirez. Florida can't sign him to along term contract and will have to deal him. They can't even afford to go to arbitratin with him. The real possible situation here is that the Marlins take Papelbon as part of the deal and send him to Philadelphia. The Phillies biggest weakness is a closer and the guy to hold down the eighth They have a strong minor league and would deal some prospects for Papelbon. Lowrie would be ncluded here too.
Anyone with a half a brain knows that all of this can't get done. The reality of any of it is a stretch at best, but from here I'd bet on Gonzalez or Hernandez being the prime deal and a few minor pick ups here and there.
I look at the Red Sox and see a team that had $20M to work with when Manny left and didn't do anything with the cash. Bay cst them about $8M whch still gave them $12M to play with. Now they get Lugo's $9M, Variteks $5M, Bay's $8M. What will they do with $34M to spend???
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Trade for Halladay, not Gonzalez, and let Bay go
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Trade for Halladay, not Gonzalez, and let Bay go
When it comes to the Sox; sometimes the value get overemphasized. They are very scared to give Jason Bay a fifth year, thinking that he'll be 37 in his last year and they'll be paying for a non productive player. But lost in all this is that they should get 3-4 more very productive years out of him. If you look at all the deals (Beckett, Pedroia, Youk,), they never want to give a guy more than 3 or 4 years. But the flip side of a long term deal is that if the market goes crazy between now and the end of the deal, its possible that you get a guy for a good value at the end of his contract As is, they are going to have lots of guys becoming free agents around 2012 and 2013, so they better hope they have some good prospects ready by then. Borasss and Bay's agent are definitely fighting it out to declare whether Matt Holliday or Jason Bay is better! Usually the better free agent will sign first and the next guy will get a little less. If not for his tenure in Oakland, the higher paid player would be Holliday. But I think AL teams are wary of him. Bay will probably sign first I think and then Borass will have 101 reason why Holliday is better and will try to get 1-2 million more per year for him. If Bay ends up in pinstripes and the Sox don't make a splash by working a trade for either Adrian Gonzalez or Roy Halladay; some fans here will start to get disgruntled with ownership; (especially if they get outbid by small money) You can't tell me that this team is losing money with the payroll slowly creeping lower every year. My thought is that that both John Henry and Theo want payroll around 100 million per year. I think Larry Lucchino was more aggressive when it came to spending $$ but he has less say now.
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Trade for Halladay, not Gonzalez, and let Bay go
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Trade for Halladay, not Gonzalez, and let Bay go
To me this is a great thread. Lots of good discussions.
However, does anything discussed here make the sox better than if they simply traded for Hanley Rameriz? Doesn't that solve the most problems with the least number of moves?
i know people will say that it will never happen but everyone has their price. if we are going to overpay for anyone shouldn't it be this guy?
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Trade for Halladay, not Gonzalez, and let Bay go
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Trade for Halladay, not Gonzalez, and let Bay go
I would say that going for Hanley Ramirez would be a solution to the hitting needs of the Red Sox and solve the SS issues but would it realistically happen? I would say no, there is no talk of the Marlins even considering trading him. I think the Sox tried this last year but got shot down.
I think the discussions the thread has had about possible moves has been good and for the most part all moves would improve the team, all the pitchers mentioned would improve the rotation massively so from that perspective yes, as for the Adrian Gonzalez, Matt Holliday talk I think they both improve the team perhaps being the key pieces that move the Sox along side with the Yankees and possible division favourites.
I would love to get Hanley Ramirez though.
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Trade for Halladay, not Gonzalez, and let Bay go
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Trade for Halladay, not Gonzalez, and let Bay go
