Bettor's best friend (BBF): Thursday's wagering tips
The Crabtree effect
After Week 4, the San Francisco 49ers were 3-1 straight up, 4-0 against the spread and coming off a 35-0 win over St. Louis. They reached an agreement with rookie holdout receiver Michael Crabtree and appeared on their way. But since Crabtree has put on the uniform, the 49ers are 0-4 straight up and 1-2-1 ATS. San Francisco is giving three points to Chicago with a total of 43.
Ilya play?
Atlanta Thrashers forward Ilya Kovalchuk, who has played just eight games this season, did not travel with the team to New York and remains out with a foot injury. He leads the team with nine goals even though he has not played since Oct. 24. No line has been established.
Help on the way
The Washington Wizards may get back forwards Antawn Jamison and Mike Miller on Saturday, NBA.com reported. Jamison has missed the entire season with a partially dislocated shoulder and Miller suffered a sprained shoulder last week. The Wizards also are without injured point guards Randy Foye, Mike James are Javaris Vrittenton. They are just 2-6 straight up, 2-6 against the spread and 1-7 against the over.
The hot hand
Tampa Bay Lightning coach Rick Tocchet told the Tampa Tribune on Wednesday that he plans on riding the hot hand with his goaltenders. That would be Antero Niittymaki, who has a 1.61 GAA and .953 save percentage in his last three matches. Tampa Bay is -144 vs. Minnesota with a total of 5.5.
Flying high
The Philadelphia Flyers may get back center Daniel Briere and left wing James van Riemsdyk vs. the Ottawa Senators. Briere has been out with a quadriceps injury but practiced Tuesday and needs clearance from team physicians. Van Riemsdyk has a broken pinkie but also practiced Tuesday. The duo has combined for eight goals and 13 assists this season. The Flyers are -156 with a total of 5.5.
Backfield in motion
The Philadelphia Eagles will be without defensive back Joselio Hanson for four games after he was suspended by the NFL for testing positive for a banned substance. The Eagles already are without cornerback Ellis Hobbs for the season, and cornerback Asante Samuel (neck) and safety Quintin Demps (ankle) are questionable. Philadelphia is getting one point at San Diego with a total of 47.
Red-hot RedHawks?
Is Miami of Ohio making a late-season push for respectability? After losing their first eight games, the RedHawks beat Toledo and lost by two points to Temple. Miami has covered its last three games and is getting 17 points vs. Bowling Green, which it has beaten as an underdog the last three meetings.
Notable quotable
"There are a lot of tools in this offense that are available and I'm looking forward to him using those."
-- Cleveland Browns coach Eric Mangini, who reinserted Brady Quinn as his starting quarterback. The Browns have five offensive TDs and are 30th in scoring, 31st in total yards and 32nd in passing yards.
South Florida at Rutgers When: 7:45 PM ET, Thursday, November 12, 2009 Where: Rutgers Stadium, Piscataway, New Jersey Quick Hits
Overall Team Offense
* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are ranked 87 on offense, averaging 344.8 yards per game. The Scarlet Knights are averaging 146.4 yards rushing and 198.4 yards passing so far this season. * The South Florida Bulls are ranked 58 on offense, averaging 384.6 yards per game. The Bulls are averaging 179.1 yards rushing and 205.5 yards passing so far this season.
Home and Away
* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are 3-2 at home this season, 1-2 against conference opponents and 5-0 against non-conference opponents. * At home the Scarlet Knights are averaging 28.4 scoring, and holding teams to 18.6 points scored on defense. * The South Florida Bulls are 3-1 while on the road this season, 2-2 against conference opponents and 4-0 against non-conference opponents. * On the road, the Bulls are averaging 25.0 scoring, and holding teams to 20.2 points scored on defense
Ball State at Northern Illinois When: 6:00 PM ET, Thursday, November 12, 2009 Where: Huskie Stadium, DeKalb, Illinois Quick Hits
Overall Team Offense
* The Northern Illinois Huskies are ranked 72 on offense, averaging 364.7 yards per game. The Huskies are averaging 229.6 yards rushing and 135.1 yards passing so far this season. * The Ball State Cardinals are ranked 108 on offense, averaging 309.7 yards per game. The Cardinals are averaging 164.8 yards rushing and 144.9 yards passing so far this season.
Home and Away
* The Northern Illinois Huskies are 4-1 at home this season, 4-1 against conference opponents and 2-2 against non-conference opponents. * At home the Huskies are averaging 37.4 scoring, and holding teams to 12.0 points scored on defense. * The Ball State Cardinals are 1-3 while on the road this season, 1-4 against conference opponents and 0-4 against non-conference opponents. * On the road, the Cardinals are averaging 23.8 scoring, and holding teams to 32.2 points scored on defense.
Bowling Green at Miami (Ohio) When: 6:00 PM ET, Thursday, November 12, 2009 Where: Fred Yager Stadium, Oxford, Ohio Quick Hits
Overall Team Offense
* The Miami (Ohio) Redhawks are ranked 88 on offense, averaging 344.6 yards per game. The Redhawks are averaging 71.8 yards rushing and 272.8 yards passing so far this season. * The Bowling Green Falcons are ranked 47 on offense, averaging 401.4 yards per game. The Falcons are averaging 63.2 yards rushing and 338.2 yards passing so far this season.
Home and Away
* The Miami (Ohio) Redhawks are 1-2 at home this season, 1-5 against conference opponents and 0-4 against non-conference opponents. * At home the Redhawks are averaging 22.0 scoring, and holding teams to 29.3 points scored on defense. * The Bowling Green Falcons are 3-2 while on the road this season, 3-2 against conference opponents and 1-3 against non-conference opponents. * On the road, the Falcons are averaging 25.4 scoring, and holding teams to 25.0 points scored on defense.
For some reason the Under 44 (buy hook) in the Bears/49ers game sticks out to me.. I remember these thursday night games to usually be close games if my memory serves me correctly. There is also 88% of the money on the over according to scores.com. I don't think we'll see the bears from last week, they should come ready to play. Haven't made any moves yet, want to see what the board is thinking first
Great job last night gang overall.. Nail..As I ALWAYS HAVE..Thanks for all that you and Raven Guru do for this board and for many's pockets! I sent a friend request on facebook..I am the guy with the girl in the UK headband from the BLuegrass State....Let's LOAD UP ALL DAY LONG!!!!!!!!!
This is just another case of the Thursday night home team getting another W. I love this game in particular though. Rutgers always seems to get there game going at a high level at the end of the season. Last season Rutgers went to USF as an 8 point dog (right around this time) and won by over 30! Schiano is one of the best motivators in College fball, and he will most definitely have his team ready tonight. USF is a talented squad but they don't scare me in this spot. I will say they did look very good last game. B.J. Daniels had probably the best game of his career. But let us not forget he's a young and very raw quarterback that has shown that he can make some very poor decisions at times. For him to put up another performance like that(on the road in Primetime) would definitely go against the odds. He will have to play very well just for USF to be in this game, because Rutgers will definitely be getting their points. Rutgers QB Tom Savage has been playing solid. Hell the whole team has been solid. I'll take Savage at home against Daniels on the road. USF won't be as efficient as Rutgers is on offense, Rutgers takes this one at home on a Thursday night by 10+.
Final Score: Rutgers 31-20
Bonus play - Over 45
USF let up 41 points to Pitt on the road a few weeks back, and I really do see Rutgers putting up a ton of points on them too. USF has gone over in it's last 4 games, Rutgers went over in it's last game, and was right on the number the 2 games before that. I don't usually play my own over/unders but if I were to do it, this would most definitely be a spot to do so.
Goodluck with your plays everyone, and I definitely have a few more games that I am absolutely loving for the weekend. See you all then!
i just wanted to say great great job to everyone in here. havent had alot of time to post lately but definitely have tailed big time. THis is nails time of year with cbb and combined with all the nba action this is when most of u guys shine. This should be a huge 4 days starting tonight with a 9 game nhl card, college football, college basketball, and nba and continuing tomorrow with a huge college basketball schedule. look forward to a big weekend of winning guys. as nail said keep up the great work.
8:20 PM CHICAGO vs. SAN FRANCISCO The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games Chicago is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road San Francisco is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago
Game 107-108: Bowling Green at Miami (OH) Dunkel Ratings: Bowling Green 77.869; Miami (OH) 75.786 Dunkel Line: Bowling Green by 2; 52 Vegas Line: Bowling Green by 3 1/2; 55 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Miami (OH) (+3 1/2); Under
Game 109-110: Ball State at Northern Illinois Dunkel Ratings: Ball State 67.994; Northern Illinois 87.841 Dunkel Line: Northern Illinois by 20; 49 Vegas Line: Northern Illinois by 17; 46 Dunkel Pick: Northern Illinois (-17); Over
Game 111-112: South Florida at Rutgers Dunkel Ratings: South Florida 91.900; Rutgers 93.044 Dunkel Line: Rutgers by 1; 43 Vegas Line: South Florida by 1; 45 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Rutgers (+1); Under
After some preseason hype predicting that Rutgers might have a chance to contend for the Big East title, most people wrote this team off after they were smoked at home to open the season, losing to Cincinnati 47-15. Yet, while the Scarlet Knights are mathematically out of the Big East title race, they still sit a very respectable 6-2 and with one more win will be eligible for a bowl game, their fifth postseason appearance in a row. That’s a pretty incredible statement for Rutgers football considering when that streak began it had been 27 years since the Scarlet Knights had made a bowl game.
The question this Thursday night is will that win come against South Florida or will coach Greg Schiano have to wait for that chance when they face Syracuse and Louisville this year?
The Bulls and Scarlet Knights have played some great games in recent years but Rutgers owns the bragging rights as of now with three straight wins after losing their first meeting 45-31 in 2005.
The story this season Rutgers has been their turnover margin. The Scarlet Knights have an incredibly low seven turnovers in their eight games and coupled with the fact that this team has forced 25 turnovers, they now have the team the best turnover margin in the country.
That efficiency can’t be understated and you can certainly bet it has won Rutgers a couple games, especially since they have been breaking in a true freshman quarterback on offense. Tom Savage hasn’t been spectacular since taking over the starting gig for Schiano but obviously he hasn’t made too many mistakes either and has done a good job of getting the ball to his playmakers.
At the top of that list is senior WR Tim Brown who is averaging a stellar 21.9 yards per catch, and has five touchdowns on the year. Add a steady ground game featuring Joe Martinek, Jourdan Brooks, and the heir apparent to Ray Rice - freshman De'Antwan Williams and you basically have a pretty good idea of the Scarlet Knights on offense.
On defense, Rutgers has been susceptible to the pass but has been solid against the run, averaging just 3.3 yards per carry through eight games.
That ability to stop the run will be tested against a South Florida offense with a quarterback that looks an awful bit like a very talented running back at times. QB B.J. Daniels took over starting role after All-Big East QB Matt Grothe tore up his knee in the third game of the season against Charleston Southern. Most fans of the Bulls thought that was the end of the season for USF but here they are with a chance for their first 10-win season in school history. In just 12 years of having a program, South Florida has had three years with at least nine wins, but has never reached double digits.
Daniels has proved to be every bit the multi-dimensional threat that Grothe was. Just ask West Virginia who he torched for three touchdown passes while going over 100 yards rushing. Daniels and RB Moise Plancher will given Schiano’s defense plenty to think about this Thursday. Look for the South Florida QB to also call WR Carlton Mitchell’s number early and often as well. The junior has 29 catches for 542 yards this season, including five receptions that covered at least 50 yards.
On defense, the Bulls are led by DE George Selvie who gets a ton of attention from the press as well as from opposing offensive coordinators. That attention has caused constant double teaming which has limited Selvie’s individual stats but allowed other playmakers on defense such as DE Jason Pierre-Paul to flourish. The junior college transfer has two sacks, five hurries and 9.5 tackles for loss and has returned an interception for a touchdown.
Both Rutgers and South Florida are an even 3-3 against the spread this season.
Ball State (1-8, 1-4 Mid American) at Northern Illinois (6-3, 4-1 Mid American)
After getting their first win of the season on Oct. 24 against lowly Eastern Michigan, Ball State turned around and went right back to losing in heartbreaking fashion. The 20-17 loss to Ohio marked the sixth time in eight losses that the final margin of defeat was 10 points or less. The Cardinals only really has one woodshed beating and that was a 24 point thumping at Auburn – certainly understandable.
Woodshed number two could be on the way this Thursday when the Cards face Northern Illinois. The Huskies obliterated Eastern Michigan last week 50-6 and will undoubtedly be looking for another knockout this week. The key for the Huskies will be RB Chad Spann who for the second consecutive week was named the MAC West Division Offensive Player of the Week. Spann has rushed for at least 100 yards for three straight games and has 16 touchdowns on the season. If Ball State can’t slow him down, this one could get ugly quick.
Ball State is 4-4 against the spread while Northern Illinois is 5-3 ATS in 2009.
Bowling Green (4-5, 3-2 Mid American) at Miami (Ohio) (1-9, 1-5 Mid American)
This is shaping up to be quite a matchup of quarterbacks. Despite a lost season at 1-9, Miami (OH) has to be thrilled with the progress of QB Zac Dysert. The freshman passed for 426 yards last week in rallying the RedHawks from an 18-point deficit in the fourth quarter against Temple. The Redhawks eventually lost on a last-second field goal but the team looks they have found the next Ben Roethlisberger.
Dysert has thrown for 1,118 yards in the past three games which explains why the Miami (OH) offense has scored 63 points in this last two games after averaging just 11.6 points over their first eight.
But let’s not forget about Bowling Green’s offense and QB Tyler Sheehan. The Falcons signal caller is averaging 332.2 yards per game while throwing 16 touchdowns. Lots of those scores were to WR Freddie Barnes who leads the nation with 107 catches for 1,176 yards and has 11 total touchdowns.
FREE PLAY
Lots of history between these intrastate rivals but lately it’s been all Miami (OH) as the RedHawks are 9-1 in the last 10 meetings, including three straight wins, against Bowling Green.
That said, clearly the Falcons have had a the better season and considering the fact that the team desperately needs this win to finish over .500 and become bowl eligible, I see Bowling Green getting the job done.
A high scoring affair ends with the visitor winning by a touchdown.
PREDICTION: Bowling Green 34 – Miami (OH) 27
Bowling Green is 4-5 against the spread this season while Miami (Ohio) is just one better at 5-5 ATS
I took a quick glance at these CFB games tonight and I think everybody should take note of 2 things:
1. Watch the weather in NJ, there is a chance of rain.
2. Ball St.'s QB broke his thumb and his replacement has thrown for a TOTAL of 79 over the past two games. He only attempted 19 passes in that span (8-19-79), which means they have been running the ball. Well, now they have to go up against the #1 rush defense in the conference.
Leaning towards Lakers -7.5, last road game was last Wed and theyve been home for a week... Suns coming off a 5 game road streak then won at home late last night. Lakers last game was Sunday
Well rested Lakers team vs a Suns team that played a late game last night...
Just worried that Lakers get up and let Suns back door which seems to be a pattern this season with Lakers letting Artest just paly terrible down the stretch to blow covers
I was ready to go pretty heavy on NIU today (which usually means 1Q, 1H, G bets) after last weeks blowout, but now I may back it off a bit with the info below and with llama's post, I think the under is the play
Ball St @ NIU SERIES HISTORY Ball State leads series 20-14-2 (the Cardinals won 45-14 at home last season) SCOUTING THE OFFENSE Ball State has been unable to threaten opponents by throwing the ball since QB Kelly Page suffered a broken thumb Oct. 15. The Cardinals have done a good job in the run game since then, but they are trying to become more balanced with a tough slate of November games looming against the top three teams in the Mid-American Conference West. SCOUTING THE DEFENSE The Cardinals have made a good reversal in defending the run after being battered on the ground early in the season. Ball State gave up an average of 216.8 yards per game on the ground in its first four games. In five games since then, opponents are averaging only 110.0 yards per game. Last 5 opponents: Ohio, E. Mich, Bowl Green, Temple, Toledo QUOTE TO NOTE "This is going to be smashmouth football. Coach Kill (Northern Illinois coach Jerry Kill) isn't going to run a lot of schemes and do a lot of different stuff. He's going to line up and have his boys come at us to see who's going to play the hardest and the longest." -- Ball State DE Brandon Crawford on the challenge of stopping Northern Illinois' running game when they play Nov. 12.
Morning board! Had a nice day yesterday 9-1, 7-1 in soccer and topped it off with CMU ,CMU team tot over and went with Cutter on the over of that game.Nail don't worry about your start, I know rain will be coming.Played a good part of my winnings on Ravens play of the year.Lets get them Guru.
