I hope I don't have to pay royalties to Nail for starting the thread today. Assuming the usuals suspects are back at the cave or cappers or where ever. My delema is it's Hollywood Jack's Birthday and I'll be damned if there was no gambling thread on this historic day.
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (+11, 40)
Line movement
The line opened at 11 and 10.5 at most books in favor of Baltimore and has stayed around that area. The total opened at 40 and has remained constant for the most part, with some dips to 39.5.
Weather
Temperatures should be in the upper 40s around kickoff with partly cloudy skies.
Injuries
Ravens defensive tackle Haloti Ngata (ankle) is questionable. Wide receiver Chansi Stuckey (calf), tight end Steve Heiden (knee) and cornerback Eric Wright (upper body) are questionable for the Browns.
Ravens nevermore in the first half
Baltimore has lost four of five games after a 3-0 start. The club’s slow starts are part of the reason for the slump.
The Ravens have not scored an offensive touchdown in the first half of their past four games. That translates to nine scoreless quarters and 25 fruitless possessions.
“I think it’s a combination of two things,” Baltimore wide receiver Derrick Mason said. “Mental errors and you’ve got to give credit to the other defense.”
Downward defense
The Ravens are trying to figure out how to fix their once-elite defense.
The offense needs to stay on the field to give the defense a break. In their past four defeats, the Ravens have allowed opponents to hold the ball for 143 minutes and 58 seconds compared to just 97:02.
A few more forced turnovers would be welcomed for Baltimore backers. The club has just one interception in its last five games. Baltimore did snare four picks in a 34-3 thrashing at home against the Browns earlier this year.
Cleveland’s quagmire
The bye week is supposed to be a time for rest, reflection, but the Cleveland Browns struggled to find any of that.
Browns general manager George Kokinis was fired on Nov. 2. The move followed a 30-6 loss to the Bears and Kokinis’ refusal to resign after being pressured by team owner Randy Learner. Kokinis had been on the job for less than a year.
To make internal matters worse, Mangini’s demanding practice regimen was criticized by running back Jamal Lewis, who claimed he has practiced in full pads this season more than any point in his NFL career.
“You can work as hard as you want. You can work all day, seven days a week all the way up to Sunday in practice. But at the same time, if you’re going to work like that, then maybe on Sunday you’re probably not going to get what you want out of your players,” Lewis said.
Quinn again
Mangini is going back to square one with opening day starter Brady Quinn.
Quinn was pulled at halftime of the Baltimore game earlier this season after throwing for just 34 yards and an interception. In 2.5 games this season, Quinn is 46-of-77 for 409 yards, one touchdown and two picks.
Mangini made the move due in part to Derek Anderson’s awful performance over the last five games and because Quinn was looking good in practice.
With Quinn as starting quarterback, the Browns are 0-3 ATS this season.
“I’m excited to play,” Quinn said. “I’m excited to be part of Monday night.”
Trends
Ravens are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games against a team with a losing record.
Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss.
Browns are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight home games.
Browns are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up loss.
Over is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings between these two teams.
Had the same idea as you buddy but was going to wait and give NAIL a phone call. I still will call NAIL sometime today to get this thread back to normal , in the meantime thank you starting things up. We need this thread.
BALTIMORE (4 - 4) at CLEVELAND (1 - 7) - 11/16/2009, 8:35 PM Top Trends for this game. BALTIMORE is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons. BALTIMORE is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons. BALTIMORE is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons. BALTIMORE is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. BALTIMORE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History BALTIMORE is 3-2 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons BALTIMORE is 3-2 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons 3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Baltimore (4-4, 5-3 ATS) at Cleveland (1-7, 3-5 ATS)
The Ravens travel to Cleveland Stadium looking to hand the hapless Browns a fourth straight loss in a battle between AFC North rivals.
Baltimore, which started the season 3-0 SU and ATS but is currently on a 1-4 SU (2-3 ATS) slide, is coming off last Sunday’s 17-7 loss at Cincinnati as a three-point road favorite. The Ravens’ vaunted defense ranks just 13th in the NFL, allowing 320.6 total yards per game, and it is 19th when defending the pass, allowing 225.8 ypg. Meanwhile the offense is 10th in the league, averaging 358.2 yards per contest and 11th in the passing game, netting 242.1 ypg through the air.
Cleveland, outscored 61-9 in its last two games, hasn’t been able to score more than 20 points in any game this season, scoring 14 points or less in four straight contests (7.25 ppg). Additionally, the Browns have produced a single field goal in two games and six points in three others, including a 30-6 loss in Chicago back on Nov. 1 before getting a bye last week. The Browns are dead last in the league in scoring offense (9.8 ppg), 31st in total offense (221.1 ypg) and dead last in passing offense (121.5 ypg).
With their offense stuck in a season-long funk, the Browns are making another QB switch this week, going back to original starter Brady Quinn in place of Derek Anderson. Quinn completed close to 60 percent of his throws in starting the first three games of the season but had just 409 yards, one TD and three INTs, with Cleveland tallying 29 total points while going 0-3 SU and ATS.
The Ravens have won three in a row SU and ATS in this series, including a 34-3 blowout win back on Sept. 27, easily cashing as 13½-point favorites. Baltimore QB Joe Flacco threw for 342 yards in that game, and the Ravens’ defense picked off four passes, including one from Quinn in the first half and three from Anderson in the second half. Baltimore is just 1-4 ATS in its last four trips to Cleveland, and the home team is on an 8-3 ATS run in this rivalry.
Baltimore’s current 1-4 slump includes three straight road losses (1-2 ATS). Meanwhile, the Browns have lost all three home games (1-2 ATS).
The Ravens are on positive ATS runs of 20-8 overall, 12-5 against AFC teams, 9-4 on the road, 5-1 after a straight-up loss and 10-3 as a favorite, but they’re just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 as a road chalk. Cleveland is on nothing but negative ATS streaks, including 3-10-1 overall, 1-6-1 at home, 1-4-1 in November and 2-9-1 after a straight-up loss. The lone bright spot for the Browns: They went 2-1 SU and ATS in Monday Night Football last year, including a 35-14 rout of the undefeated Giants as a nine-point home underdog.
Baltimore has topped the total in six of nine November games, seven of nine against losing teams, 10 of 14 on the road (4-1 last five) and four straight Monday contests, however the Ravens have stayed under the total in four straight as a favorite and four of five against AFC teams. The Browns are on “under” streaks of 5-2 overall, 6-2-1 after an ATS loss, 5-2 against the AFC and 18-8-1 on grass.
The over is 4-1-1 in the last six clashes in this rivalry, and the over is 19-6-1 in Monday Night Football games dating back to last season (8-2 this year).
ATS ADVANTAGE: BALTIMORE and OVER
NBA
Portland (8-3 SU and ATS) at Atlanta (8-2 SU, 9-1 ATS)
Two of the hottest teams in the NBA square off inside Philips Arena as the Trailblazers conclude a five-game road trip with a battle against the Hawks.
Portland has rattled off six straight wins and spread-covers, including all four so far on this road trip. Most recently, the Blazers beat the Bobcats 80-74 on Saturday, cashing as a 2½-point favorite. Portland’s defense is allowing just 83.3 points per game on the road while limiting the opposition to 40 percent shooting from the field. Since a season-opening a 111-107 loss at Houston on Halloween, the Blazers have given up 97 points or fewer in nine straight games, holding six of those opponents to 84 points or less and three of the last four to less than 80 points.
Atlanta has won four in a row SU and ATS and crushed the Hornets 121-98 as a 12½-point home favorite Saturday. The Hawks are perfect at home this season at 4-0 SU and ATS, averaging 116.5 points a game while allowing just 99.
These squads met back on Nov. 3 in Portland with the Hawks getting the 97-91 upset win as seven-point underdogs. Atlanta has won two straight in this series, including a 98-80 win in March as a four-point home chalk. The visitor is on a 10-2 ATS run in this rivalry, with the Blazers going 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to Atlanta. Also, the underdog has cashed in eight of the last 10 meetings.
Portland comes into this one on several positive ATS streaks, including 24-9 overall, 5-0 on the road, 7-1 on Monday, 5-0 after a spread-cover and 6-1 on the road against teams with a winning home record. Meanwhile, the Hawks are on a plethora of positive ATS runs, including 9-1-1 overall, 18-7-2 at home, 12-3-1 against the Western Conference, 5-0-1 against Northwest Division teams and 3-0-2 on Monday.
The Blazers are on a number of “under” trends, including 12-3 overall, 16-5 on the road, 19-7 on the road against opponents with winning home records, 5-1 against Southeast Division teams and 5-2 against the Eastern Conference. Atlanta has topped the total in four of five against the Western Conference and five of six overall, but it also carries “under” streaks of 7-1 on Monday and 8-3 after getting a day off. Finally, in this matchup, the “over” has been the play in eight of the last 11 meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA
Dallas (7-3 SU and ATS) at Milwaukee (5-2 SU and ATS)
The Bucks look to win their fifth straight game when they welcome the Mavericks to the Bradley Center in Milwaukee.
Dallas comes in off Sunday’s 95-90 victory in Detroit, barely cashing as a 4½-point favorite. The Mavericks have won two of their first three on a four-game road trip (2-1 ATS), and they’re 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five overall. The SU winner has covered the spread in each of the Mavericks’ 10 games this season. Going back to last year, the winner has cashed in 24 of Dallas’ last 26 outings.
Milwaukee has won four straight (3-1 ATS), including all three on a current six-game homestand. Rookie Brandon Jennings scored 55 points on Saturday, including 29 in the third quarter, to lead the Bucks to a 129-125 win over Golden State. However, Milwaukee came up short as 7½-point home favorite, ending a 5-0 ATS run. The Bucks are averaging 108.8 ppg at home (47.5 percent shooting, tallying 102, 108 and 129 in the last three.
The home team has won five straight (3-2 ATS) and seven of the last eight (6-2 ATS) in this series. Last January at the Bradley Center, the Bucks crushed Dallas 133-99 as a one-point home ‘dog, but went to Dallas a month later and lost 116-96 as a 7½-point pup. Milwaukee is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings with the Mavericks, all as an underdog. Meanwhile, Dallas has failed to cover in nine straight games inside the Bradley Center.
The Mavericks are 7-2 ATS in their last nine overall, but otherwise are on pointspread slides of 3-5 against the Eastern Conference, 10-24-1 against Central Division teams, 1-4 on the second night of a back-to-back, 0-4 on Monday and 2-5 on the road against teams with a winning home record. Meanwhile, Milwaukee is on ATS surges of 5-1 overall, 5-1 at home, 4-1 after getting a day off, 11-3 against Southwest Division teams and 7-2 on Monday.
Dallas has stayed under the total in 16 of 21 when playing the second night of a back-to-back and eight of 10 Monday games. The Bucks are on “under” runs of 6-2-1 overall and 5-1 on Monday, but they’ve topped the total in four of five against the Western Conference and 21 of 31 against Southwest Division teams.
Finally, the “over” is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings between these squads (3-0 last three) and 6-2 in the last eight in Milwaukee.
Blue Armadillo,you're not stepping on anyones toes ,any info is appreciated.I don't know what happened yesterday and I'm not ready to go through 30 pages of bs, but to let a great thing crash again because of the same person or should I say idiot again( this person also sent me plenty of pms that I just ignored and wished that everone else had done the same) is a crying shame. This thread was money for a lot of people here, that gave info in every way they could on all sports events.I 'm sure a couple of people will be happy because they think their thread will get more traffic but everyone loses on this one. NAIL THANKS AGAIN FOR ALL YOU DID!
Considering NO ONE is going to take Cleveland, could that constitute anyone whatsoever making any valid points as to doing this?
They just suck so bad and that's the thing. But I am considering maybe making a play on them.
Does this 10 point line remind anyone of that Monday nighter a few seasons ago when the Bills played Dallas at home as a 10 pt. dog?
The Bills were atrocious but almost beat Dallas until Nick Folk saved the day with something like a 55 yard FG with hardly any time left.
It is crazy how you remember certain things.
If you guys had a bad day yesterday, this will not make you feel as bad. You think my friend woke up with a headache this morning with this parlay he had?
$500 parlay on Niagara CBB (covered other night) over in Phi/SD (covered) and NE money line. He said he figured he would take the ML because if they covered the 2.5 they'd most likely win.
As you see, play it safe. $3300 bones (estimate) was lost because of that and the poor guy owes the 500 (about 3800 swing) because Belicheck is an arrogant douche. You go on 4th and 2 against the Lions or Browns. You don't go for a 4th and 2 against a great offense when they are at home and a top 3 QB of all time is at the helm.
They deserved to lose after that. A great coach who made a mistake, no one's perfect.
Balls thank you sir. Yeah I know the 'hoodie' gets a pass on most of his decisions but that one last night is just out thinking himself and not giving his team the best chance to win. Further more, a lesson learned from his mentor Parcels, you can't turn the ball over on the road and expect to win. Pats should have been up by 2 more scores, they had a pick and fumble in the end zone. Which only further proves Raven had that game PEGGED. Thanks again RG! I parlayed Pats +3 and TT over 24. HUGE!!
There is one team in the NFL that I wont bet any more system plays on this year and it is Cleveland, There has been 3 line plays with this team and they all have lost............Today there is another line play as of Now but I suggest if you can take Balt down to a -10 do it now I just bought it to a 10 on bookmaker and my other site has Balt -12...............BOL
College basketball play for tomorrow. Nail Kentucky -21 against Miami Ohio.
Kentucky welcomes back highly touted recruit John Wall to Rupp Arena tomorrow night after serving his two game suspension. This Kentucky team, though young, is loaded and should only get better as the year goes on. This game is a complete mismatch. Miami has no answer for the quickness and athletism from the guards of Kentucky, as this was the biggest question mark for the Redhawks coming into this year. Miami is traveling to Kentucky coming off an 11 point loss to Towson! Most predicted Miami to finish midpack in the MAC trying to replace last years player of the year Micheal Bramos. Kentuckys second team could compete for a MAC title. The depth, home court, and just plain talent difference will be more than enough for Kentucky to win huge tomorrow night and cover this number.
Good morning all. (Sorry guys that game is tonight, this is a repost from last night.)
College basketball play for today. Nail Kentucky -21 against Miami Ohio.
Kentucky welcomes back highly touted recruit John Wall to Rupp Arena tomorrow night after serving his two game suspension. This Kentucky team, though young, is loaded and should only get better as the year goes on. This game is a complete mismatch. Miami has no answer for the quickness and athletism from the guards of Kentucky, as this was the biggest question mark for the Redhawks coming into this year. Miami is traveling to Kentucky coming off an 11 point loss to Towson! Most predicted Miami to finish midpack in the MAC trying to replace last years player of the year Micheal Bramos. Kentuckys second team could compete for a MAC title. The depth, home court, and just plain talent difference will be more than enough for Kentucky to win huge tomorrow night and cover this number.
Rain- I thought wall was sitting out 2 games?? has he already sat those out? If so, then yes Kentucky should lay the wood...they will score into the 90's i would think
