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SJ10689's WEEK 11 PREDICTIONS/NEW STUFF ADDED Sports News
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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SJ10689's WEEK 11 PREDICTIONS/NEW STUFF ADDED


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- SJ10689's WEEK 11 PREDICTIONS/NEW STUFF ADDED
Reputation:98
Level:Superstar
Since:Mar 10, 2008
November 22, 2009 10:22 am

Click here to go to my "Guess the NFL Football Scores!" blog.

Week 11 Predictions:

Away team listed above, home team listed below.

Network coverage dependant upon region. Blackout restrictions may apply.

(ALL TIMES ET)

DON'T FORGET!!!

The NFL Injuries Report: http://www.nfl.com/injuries
The NFL Inactives Report*: http://www.nfl.com/inactives

* The NFL Inactives Report is posted IMMEDIATELY before game time. Make sure to check The NFL Inactives Report IMMEDIATELY before your lineup deadlines in fantasy football leagues, to make sure your players aren't listed amongst the inactives!

Predictions stats:

Week 1:   12/16     (75.0%)
Week 2:   10/16     (62.5%)
Week 3:   13/16     (81.3%)
Week 4:   11/14     (78.6%)
Week 5:   10/14     (71.4%)
Week 6:     9/14     (64.3%)
Week 7:   11/13     (84.6%)
Week 8:     9/13     (69.2%)
Week 9:     8/13     (61.5%)
Week 10: 10/15     (66.6%)
Week 11:   0/1(16)
TOTAL:  103/145 (71.0%)*

* Includes week 11's TNF game

How am I driving?

1) SJ:                         103/144 (71.5%)
2) Shannon Sharpe: 98/144 (68.1%)
3) Dan Marino:           97/144 (67.4%)
4) Bill Cowher:           96/144 (66.7%)
5) Pete Prisco:           87/144 (60.4%)
6) Boomer Esiason: 86/144 (59.7%)

-----------------------------------

Thu 11/19, 8:20 PM

17 (24)

26 (17)

(lost)

Network: NFL Network (DIRECTV: 212)

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Sun 11/22, 1:00 PM

31 <--

24

Network: CBS (DIRECTV: 704)

The Ravens lost pass rusher Terrell Suggs ... the Ravens D/ST might get reduced to ashes.

-----------------------------------

13

27 <--

Network: FOX (DIRECTV: 708)

Clinton Portis is out... it's no wonder that the Redskins will be in for a long day. A very long day.

-----------------------------------

16

24 <--

Network: CBS (DIRECTV: 705)

Start the Lions D/ST over the Ravens D/ST!? You betcha. I certainly like the direction the Lions' offense is taking, at least for the future.

-----------------------------------

17

29 <--

Network: FOX (DIRECTV: 709)

The 49ers 29th ranked pass defense should come as relief for the depleted Packers ' O-line. This could get interesting, since they can at least defend the rush effectively. I see a BIG day for Mason Crosby . Like, 15 field goal points BIG. (5 FGs)

-----------------------------------

13

34 <--

Network: CBS (DIRECTV: 706)

Holy crap, another major Bills defeat. Not a surprise. Literally, they will get "run down" to the "ground". You know what I mean. Maurice Jones-Drew with 200 yards? Why shouldn't that happen? He is easily this week's Chris Johnson . Don't even get me started with "running" down the clock... ugh, it will be uggg-LY!

-----------------------------------

27 <--

16

Network: CBS (DIRECTV: 707)

Unless Rashard Mendenhall gets hurt, or gets a smiting from the gods of football, there's no way he disappoints! Last week was lackluster, but he's BACK! (Say "rush hard" three times fast. 'Nuff said.)

-----------------------------------

19

30 <--

Network: FOX (DIRECTV: 710)

If Matt Hasselbeck 's game didn't seem so lethargic, I'd be inclined to give the Seahawks a few additional points. And the Seahawks can't rush this time around, either - the injury to Julius Jones didn't help. Start Justin Forsett at your own risk.

-----------------------------------

23

27 <--

Network: FOX (DIRECTV: 711)

Sleeper of the week: Jason Snelling (can... he... prove it!?)

And, oh yeah - I say the Giants finally get their long-awaited victory. I've been right in my predictions on them 8 out of 9 times as a Giants fan, even through the losses! Have some faith in my unbiased approach.

-----------------------------------

27 <--

20

Network: FOX (DIRECTV: 712)

Bust of the Week: Robert Meachem (Swing vote?)

(Major possible upset alert!)

I'm seeing improvement in the Buccaneers ' game - take it from somebody who called them bust of the year! I see a comeback, and you might not know him yet, but enter... FS Tanard Jackson ! The Bucs might give the Saints bit of trouble and Drew Brees might actually sweat a little. I know, it sounds insane. But hey, if the Rams can be the team that actually gets closest to ruining the Saints' undefeated season, why can't the Bucs have a legitimate chance? The Saints are on "rush hour".

Where's Sedrick Ellis , Darren Sharper and Jabari Greer for the Saints, when you need 'em? The heat is simmering and the fans will be crazy! (Sharper's status is listed as "Probable" as of now, so let's see what happens.)

-----------------------------------

Sun 11/22, 4:05 PM

38 <--

16

Network: FOX (DIRECTV: 713)

Start of the Week: Kurt Warner

If you need to choose blowout game of the week, this one could be it! It's high time for Tim Hightower ... and Beanie Wells .

And, of course, Kurt Warner will pass and pass and pass against his former team, no doubt - Kurt won't get all emotional and stuff with memories of the "Greatest Show on Turf", believe me. That's old news, anyway. That tough resolve and speculation of special treatment (if any) somehow makes Warner my Start of the Week. I'm also compensating for my bash of him in week 8 as "Sit of the Week", which came true two times over.

-----------------------------------

Sun 11/22, 4:15 PM

23 <--

21 (2-pt. conversion?)

Network: CBS (DIRECTV: 714)

I don't know, but something about this matchup makes me feel... uneasy. Barf bag day in the high altitudes of Invesco Field at Mile High makes a whole lotta sense. It should be damned close.

-----------------------------------

16

24 <--

Network: CBS (DIRECTV: 715)

Thomas Jones is a hit or miss proposition here... I'm leaning towards "miss" this time. (97 total yds, 1 TD - whatever that's worth in fantasy, but it is underwhelming compared to recent performances)

Oh, and Mark Sanchez has been exposed! Week 2 is old news... time for a market correction.

-----------------------------------

23 <--

10

Network: CBS (DIRECTV: 716)

No CedBen ? No problem.

-----------------------------------

Sun 11/22, 8:20 PM

30 <--

19

Network: NBC (DIRECTV: local NBC channel)

Sit of the Week: Jay Cutler (the madness continues...)

-----------------------------------

Mon 11/23, 8:30 PM

30

34 <--

Network: ESPN (DIRECTV: 206)

If you think I'm copying and pasting the week 2 scores between these two and deducting 1 point from the Titans , you'd be wrong. But that would be an interesting assumption, nonetheless. One rule to follow, though: You don't mess with Texas... or Chris Johnson!

-----------------------------------

BYES:

[X]

Laughing

-----------------------------------

SJ Power Rankings:

Updated: Saturday, November 21 (Yes, including this week's TNF game)

NOTES (before you start sending hate mail):

1. One good week does not a good football team make! Always remember that!
2. The rankings are based on statistics, team records, TDs scored/allowed and recent trends. Don't hate me for so-called "flaws" in my rankings - hate the numbers. If you disagree with the ranking(s), it's OK to post your thoughts constructively ; I'll give you my unbiased feedback.
3. The movement in the rankings are momentum-based! A streak of wins or losses can create dramatic movements in the rankings, depending on the team's placement in the rankings.

1.  Indianapolis Colts (9-0), Prev: 2 (+1)

2. New Orleans Saints (9-0), Prev: 1 (-1)

3. New England Patriots (6-3), Prev: 3 (+0)

4. Minnesota Vikings (8-1), Prev: 4 (+0)

5. Cincinnati Bengals (7-2), Prev: 7 (+2)

T-6. Dallas Cowboys (6-3), Prev: 5 (-1) / Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3), Prev: 6 (+0)

8. Baltimore Ravens (5-4), Prev: 10 (+2)

9. Arizona Cardinals (6-3), Prev: 12 (+3)

10. San Diego Chargers (6-3), Prev: T-13 (+3)

11. Philadelphia Eagles (5-4), Prev: 8 (-3)

12. Green Bay Packers (5-4), Prev: T-13 (+1)

13. Denver Broncos (6-3), Prev: 9 (-4)

14. Atlanta Falcons (5-4), Prev: 11 (-3)

15. Houston Texans (5-4), Prev: 16 (+1)

16. New York Giants (5-4), Prev: 17 (+1)

17. New York Jets (4-5), Prev: 15 (-2)

18. Miami Dolphins (5-5), Prev: 19 (+1)

19. San Francisco 49ers (4-5), Prev: 18 (-1)

20. Seattle Seahawks (3-6), Prev: 20 (+0)

21. Chicago Bears (4-5), Prev: 21 (+0)

22. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-4), Prev: 23 (+1)

23. Carolina Panthers (4-6), Prev: 22 (-1)

24. Tennessee Titans (3-6), Prev: 27 (+3)

25. Washington Redskins (3-6), Prev: 24 (-1)

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-8), Prev: 26 (+0)

27. Buffalo Bills (3-6), Prev: 25 (-2)

28. Kansas City Chiefs (2-7), Prev: 28 (+0)

29. Detroit Lions (1-8), Prev: 29 (+0)

30. Oakland Raiders (2-7), Prev: 30 (+0)

31. St. Louis Rams (1-8), Prev: 32 (+1)

32. Cleveland Browns (1-8), Prev: 31 (-1)

-----------------------------------

The Guru and Expert Advice:

Have questions, comments, concerns or suggestions regarding the guru and/or expert advice? Want to find out how this whole system works? Then follow the links below - Mike Levine's "The Fantasy Product Blog" is THE place to get your voice heard and THE place to get the inside scoop into the confines of CBSSports.com fantasy!

1) Who is the Guru?
http://mike-levine.blogs.cbssports.

com/mcc/blogs/entry/12969017/172178

96


2) More Thoughts on Predictive Content
http://mike-levine.blogs.cbssports.

com/mcc/blogs/entry/12969017/179183

32


3) Preview Page Questions
http://mike-levine.blogs.cbssports.

com/mcc/blogs/entry/12969017/181303

44


Mike Levine's "The Fantasy Product Blog": http://mike-levine.blogs.cbssports.

com/mcc/blogs/view/12969017

-----------------------------------

SJ Mailbag:

I will respond to important questions and post them here!

1.

Oh, speaking about predictions.  They're really just your opinions, right?  Because we all know a prediction is fortelling with precision of calculation through set facts and not potentials. Opinions based on facts and examples, but with a fixed serving of randomness. Just not too much so as to rock the boat completely, Prisco-style. Some of that randomness is merely a caricature of facts and examples, and can take them to varying extremes at times. But that only happens when I intuitively "feel" strongly about them. So "opinions based on facts, examples, probabilities and randomness" suits best, concisely and precisely, in the best way I can describe it. If they were just my opinions and nothing else, that leaves out research - that's not good. That would make my work pointless. I'd be out of this particular job (not that there's money involved). At least you mentioned the calculations through set facts part, though when you said "not potentials", that is technically true, but you left out the factor of randomness and probability part to clarify, which plays a role when the games are played out. Nothing's predetermined; no such thing as a sure thing - I'm just saying this for emphasis.

2.

I love the moxie, SJ... but is 71.5% actually good?

Believe it or not, 71.5% (now 71.0%) actually is pretty good! The average CBS users average 59.4% (or about 86/144). The research has definitely helped me to do better, no doubt! To compare (excluding this week's TNF game), Dan Marino is 97/144 (67.4%), Bill Cowher is 96/144 (66.7%), Boomer Esiason is 86/144 (59.7%), Shannon Sharpe is 98/144 (68.1%) and Pete Prisco is 87/144 (60.4%). Quite shocking to me, personally, is that I never sunk below 61.5%* in any week of my predictions this year! Looking at all the numbers, I have continuously remained highly competitive! I have verified that my predictions stats are correct, though if anyone should prove them erroneous, I'll adjust them accordingly.

* 61.5% in week 9 (8/13)


I know that BTS (Beat the Spread) does measure true prediction prowess and I have not measured my BTS stats, but the backtracking for me is simply too much work, especially checking for errors in my stat-keeping and stuff. I'll probably do that next year, though.

P.S.: By the way, if Shannon Sharpe is ranked 837/45907 overall (98th percentile) with 98/144 (68.1%), that easily would put me at or close to the TOP 1 PERCENT! Never mind the non-participants, or like me, those who didn't play the fantasy pick 'em game the whole season - that's still damned good!


-END-

Well, that's all for now. Just realize that 71% is fantastic, considering all the twists and turns football has taken this season! And, if you're going to criticize me for my picks, (1) do it BEFORE the game and (2) back up your argument with some facts, at least so that your opinion is respected.
 
- SJ10689's WEEK 11 PREDICTIONS/NEW STUFF ADDED
Reputation:97
Level:Superstar
Since:Sep 30, 2009
November 23, 2009 2:48 pm

Since you and All-Yahoo have the same picks (they picked Carolina, too), you're both 12-3 so far this week.

Maybe All-Yahoos is a high standard? Let's see if you get more separation in Week 12.

 
- SJ10689's WEEK 11 PREDICTIONS/NEW STUFF ADDED
Reputation:98
Level:Superstar
Since:Mar 10, 2008
November 23, 2009 11:16 pm

Since you and All-Yahoo have the same picks (they picked Carolina, too), you're both 12-3 so far this week.

Maybe All-Yahoos is a high standard? Let's see if you get more separation in Week 12.
Yeah, it has been an AWESOME week! But, even with the upsets against the Bengals and Steelers, I still feel that this week was waaay too easy! I need more of a challenge (like Patriots-Saints next week), and I desire the competition! I say to the football gods "bring it on!"

I'm going for 13/16 (81.3%)! But 12/16 (75.0%) is still not too shabby. Let's see how the battle of Houston vs. the team formerly of Houston pans out... My prediction on them so far seems to be doing well. Even though I picked the Texans to win, I'm actually rooting for the Titans! Vince Young has earned a tremendous amount of respect from me tonight, and I really do hope he can prove the "bust" label wrong! He is playing about as fundamentally sound as he possibly could, with emphasis on "fundamentally". Go for V ictorY !
 
- SJ10689's WEEK 11 PREDICTIONS/NEW STUFF ADDED
Reputation:97
Level:Superstar
Since:Sep 30, 2009
November 24, 2009 1:41 am

What I liked most from Young was the way he was listening to the coach on the sidelines. Seems his head's on straight.
 
- SJ10689's WEEK 11 PREDICTIONS/NEW STUFF ADDED
Reputation:98
Level:Superstar
Since:Mar 10, 2008
November 25, 2009 3:36 am

What I liked most from Young was the way he was listening to the coach on the sidelines. Seems his head's on straight. Not only that, but what interested me the most was how many people complained that when Vince Young was on the sidelines while Kerry Collins was still the starting QB, that Young was supposedly too busy listening to songs on his iPod and not listening to or observing any aspects of the game. Perhaps it's better that he didn't, as Kerry Collins' play would have set a bad example. Of course, I'm being somewhat sarcastic with that one.

Whether suicidal or masochistic (or perhaps both), or not, I'm glad that Vince Young got over his problems. His mother didn't help at all when she publicly addressed the media, saying that Vince Young was "hurting inside and out". Speculation had it that Vince Young might have run away (or at least tried to), but who knows.

In any case, I wish him all the best - I'm optimistic that a new era will dawn brightly upon Nashville, Tennessee surrounding that big football stadium alongside the Cumberland River, and Vince Young / Chris Johnson will lead the way. Their defense is returning to form too, though even some experts are skeptical of that - they'll see results soon enough.

The Titans should finish strong this year, despite no playoff run.