READ THIS BEFORE YOU POST!!!!!!!!!

REMEMBER - A Maximum of 4 LOCKS per week!

and a Maximum of ONE LOCK PER DAY!

 

LOCK THREAD CONCEPT -

This thread has been created for all of us to share our expertise with everyone else to benefit the group.

THIS IS NOT A PICKING CONTEST!

PLEASE make special note of this!!! If you have an area of expertise - Pac-10, AFC East, Big East, NHL, etc. - please make some LOCK choices from your area of expertise when you have a game you are confident enough in to call it a "LOCK". The difference between a PICK and a LOCK is that a PICK is a game you like, a LOCK is a game that you KNOW. We are here to help each other win. If you are claiming your choice is a LOCK, and you really have NO true knowledge of that game, then you are just cheating us and posting your PICK just for attention and to see your name on the board.

RULES FOR POSTING -

I take it upon myself to donate my time and track everybody's LOCK every day, as long as you agree to do your part by doing a few simple things. I will not track your picks if you do not follow these rules. You are welcome to still post your PICK or card, but unless you do the things below, I won't be putting your LOCK on the spreadsheet.

- Post only 1 LOCK per day.  You may post a MAXIMUM of 4 LOCKS per week.  A week starts on Monday, and ends on Sunday.  Choose NCAA, NBA, NFL, or NHL.  You do not have to stay in one sport.  Spread them around if you like.

- No "buying" points.

- First half lines are OK.  No second half or quarter lines.  We want the LOCKS posted early enough so we can all benefit.  Time constraints make second half lines too tough to track.

- No other "line-manipulations: like teasers, etc.

- No parlays.


- No props (unless you give a site where we can check the line).

- No moneylines.

- Hockey and soccer plays need to be -129 or better.  No HUGE favorites for LOCKS.  If you have a -200 line or something, take the -1.5 goals if you feel like it is still a LOCK.

- Do not try to cheat on lines. We, as a group, are all over the lines and every time someone gives a stinky spread, it is always called out. If the line is off, the LOCK doesn't go into the spreadsheet.

And, the Most Important Rule!

You must give an original explanation as to why you KNOW this LOCK will win. And don't just "stat" us to death. Tell us about the game. And if you are going to try and fool us by cutting and pasting from another website, at least figure out how to remove all the HTML and other garbage. People on this thread are all over the internet and will find your plagiarism. I guarantee it. You can use Last 10, ATS, etc., numbers to support your argument, but stats from a gambling website are not an explanation. They are stats that any of us can get anywhere on the internet. Also, how about if you have actually SEEN the team play that you pick. I'd say that if you haven't seen a team play at least a few times, you can't really be an expert on said team.

Follow these rules and I will track every LOCK you post - FREE OF CHARGE!!!!!!

I will try to get CONSENSUS statistics out before the first tips each day around 3:40 PM, PST.  There is no guarantee, however.

Thank you for your understanding and your help in keeping this thread for the benefit of everybody, not just a place for you to blather out random picks and toot your own horn.

Good luck today and let's work together to win some cash!

-USC Holmey

Also, make sure you check the Blog page every day for the list of Top LOCKers and other stats.  Click on my username above my avatar to get to my Profile page and then from there you can always find the most recent blog post.

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Always Crtl+C long posts before you post them!  I learned that a long time ago.  Nothing I hate more than re-typing the same thing more than once!

LOCK Bayer Leverkusen/Bochum over 2.5....

Bayer last 5 games....3 - 1 / 3 - 0 / 4 - 2 / 3 - 2 / 2 - 2  

Bochum last 5 games... 0 - 0 / 2 - 2 / 2 - 1 / 3 - 2 / 1 - 5

as u can see both teams ted to score gaols and concede goals...

also playing Leverkusen -1...

this team has made me money for the last 5 weeks betting the over at 2.5....

Well, found another overnight/early line that I just cannot ignore for my LOCK:

LOCK = Arizona State/Washington over 141.5

Just like Thursday night, I cannot figure this total out.  Washington is the only team left in the Pac-10 that is what I call "stubbornly" up-tempo, meaning that they push the ball no matter what.  Winning, losing, whatever, they are going to push the ball.  Other teams like Cal, Stanford, and Washington State are 'up tempo', but all three can be forced into slower games.  Washington, however, will not be forced out of their game - by anybody.  I guess the assumption with this total is that ASU will try and slow the game down, which is exactly what everybody tries to do against Washington, but you just can't, especially on their floor, which is perhaps the most raucus arena in the Pac-10 this year.  So, you say ASU is going to slow down the game?  Well, ASU has scored 81, 88, & 70 points in their last 3 games, against WSU, Cal, and Stanford, all 3 of which do not push the ball nearly as hard as the Huskies do.  The WSU/ASU game went over 150 on Thursday, and anybody who knows the Pac-10 would say that a ASU/UW game would have a higher total than a ASU/WSU game every time, yet it is still at only 141.5.  This is just too easy to see that the losing team in this game will hit 70 easily, and both teams could get to 80, in my opinion.  Good luck.

My 2nd LOCK of the week is on the PITT PANTHERS-4.5 OVER SETON HALL.

The Panthers limp into this contest having dropped 4 of 5 games and honestly are looking like the team that was predicted to finish mid lower pack in the Big East. Jamie Dixon has challenged his squad to regain the intensity and grit that rocketed them up the polls early in the season. Pitt starts a crucial homestand in which they play their next 4 of 5 games at home.  Seton Hall enters this contest on the third leg of 3 game road trip in which they dropped the first 2.  Look for an inspired purposeful effort by the Panthers that is keyed by the defense stopping Hazell and contolling the boards.  Pitt is very tough at home only losing once and this line presents great line value as a couple weeks ago Pitt would have been a double digit favorite.  All of this adds up to a comfortable win for PITT - 4.5 and I am LOCKING it up.


PITT-4.5

I'm on board with you alfy for the over Bayern game. I could only get over 2.5 @ -222 I hope it was worth the extra juice.

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im getting it at -196 for a 2.5 over/under....still  hit it hard alf?

Kentucky Wildcats -12.... LOCK #1 (LFYT)

UK goes into Baton Rouge tomorrow looking to extend its winning streak to 3 after losing to South Carolina a week and a half ago. These kids and coaches know that they have to step up their defense and take care of the basketball if they wanna win the rest of the season and in March and early April. Uk leads the SEC in scoring and LSU is last in scoring. LSU will probably try and slow down UK, but I think UKs guards are too good to be shut out of fast break points like they were last week against Vandy. UK saw how LSU hung around against Tennessee on Thurs nite and will do everything possible to not let that happen. Cats will get out to early lead, prolly let LSU make a mini run and then finally close a team out and win by 15-20. At least i hope they can win by that margin.
good luck gang

Lets lock this up right now, liking several college games tomorrow but 2 in particular look really nice:

LOCK#1- GONZAGA+4.5.....This Zags team is a good all around team with solid guard play from Bouldin and Gray, and good post play from Harris and Sacre.  They are a disciplined team and that will be where they have a huge advantage over the free-wheeling Memphis Tigers.  No doubt Memphis has some talent but they don't play well as a team so far this year and against Gonzaga that will get them beat outright.  The wrong team is favored here as the road visiting Zags will win this game outright so grab the generous 4.5 points and watch Gonzaga force Memphis into bad shot after bad shot while running their offense efficiently like they have been almost all year.  Take Gonzaga+4.5 for today's first lock and a small play on the money line too.

I will post my second LOCK in the morning, but I will let everyone know it is a 12:00 tip and it may surprise some.

Here are some early leans for the rest of the day:

Wichita St-13

So Ill/N. Iowa Under 120

Min/PSU Under 133

UNLV-1 

Teaser plays on Saturday, Kentucky -7 and College of Charleston -4.5, LOCK it up!  Especially on Charleston!!!!!

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Way under 59 pages, no soccer or bowling to talk about!!!!  LOL

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LOCK--Kansas St. -4.5

Like I said on my last post I am a Big 12 guy.  I actually feel strongly about 2 Big 12 games tomorrow but I feel most strongly about this one.  Kansas St. has quality wins over Texas, Baylor, and Texas A&M, and they certainly gave Kansas everything they could handle.  Iowa St. on the other hand is not a good team.  They got trounced by 21 earlier in the week against Baylor.  The stats are as follows: 

Kansas St--13-3 ATS
Iowa St.-- 8-10 ATS

Don't even let the fact that Iowa St is at home fool you:

Iowa St. Home Games -- 5-5 ATS
Kansas St. On the Road -- 6-1 ATS


In my opinion 4.5 is just too small a number.  Kansas St. should win by 10 or 15.

The other "lean" that I have is Nebraska +22 against Kansas.  No writeup for this one.  Yes Kansas is at home but in my opinion 22 pts is way too many for a conference game and Kansas is worn out from 2 consecutive tough games against Colorado and Kansas St.  They'll win but probably by 12 or so.