Trade Matt Holliday

Not happening.  I've been seeing this idea thrown around and floating on various sites, and we should air it out here.  Who thinks the Cards could be better off trading Matt Holliday?  How could we better?  Trade Holliday for who?  How much money do you think the Cards would really save?

Matt Holliday is one of the best left fielders in the majors.  He is a solid threat at the number 4, or even 5, spot.  His numbers are good.  He would certainly be batting around the clean-up position on any major league roster.  The only real blemish this year was he got a little banged up.  I think it's a bunch of crap he wasn't more of a factor in the WS and that he wasn't available in Game 7.  But maybe that'll give one star Cardinal a little hunger for an opportunity to get back to the series.

There's two things to remember from Holliday this season:
1.  He was back in the line-up days after being cut open with that appendectomy. (meaning he's a competitor and he'll do his damnedest to earn his contract)
2.  He gunned down Mike Napoli in Game 3 like a pimp!

Until we get a conclusive 'yes' or 'no' on Albert, we are on hold, as far as offense.  We are further hamstrung from making other big decisions until Waino actually has a few Spring Training outings.  

If Albert leaves, we'll need to ADD offense, not subtract it.  

Presumably, Waino is recovering nicely, but we don't really know with certainty. 

I am not a Holliday hater by any stretch or think he should be shipped off immediately.  That being said he obviiously wasn't what we paid 16 million for this year.  It's not often that a 16 million dollar outfielder sits out Game 7 of the World Series and fans are pleased about it.  We were very fortunate to have Allen Craig to replace Holliday.  I believe Holliday COULD be one of the best left fielders in the game as we have seen in the past but he wasn't this season.  As for him gunning down Napoli...it was a nice throw but Nap is not known for his speed.  All in all, I don't see a trade involving Holliday in the near future and while we are trying to re-sign Albert.

No shot here.

Sure A.Craig had a great post season but he'll eventually take over for Lance after next season assuming Lance is gone.  12million a year for Berkman is a stretch but if he perfoms close to what he did this past season its worth it.

Jon Jay is still a project, if he can correct that hurky jerky swing of his he'll be just fine.  We haven't gotten production out of CF for a few years now but if he bats .280/15/60 for a year that is good enough. 

Can't trade Matt; In today's baseball market 16million a year from someone that will hit 25hrs and drive in 100 when healthy is certainly worth it. 

I'm a big Matt Holliday fan, If Allen Craig was big league ready I'd support it more but I'm sure he'll replace Berkman in 2013

That being said he obviiously wasn't what we paid 16 million for this year.

What did you want for 16 million?  Did you look at his stats?  He missed about 40 games and still had 83 Runs, 75 RBI's, and 22 HR's.  His slash line was .296/.388/.525.  That's not elite, but it's real good.  


Berkman had a phenomenal year.  He played 21 more games and only had 7 more runs, 9 more HR's, and 18 more RBI's.  Considering he had an apendectomy, a torn ligament in his hand, a quad injury, and a back injury.  Despite all of those injuries, we still got 3/4 of a season from him, and solid production.  I think Holliday, for those sub-elite hitters, has been about the best deal.  Take a look at a few of the other contracts... Crawford is making 14.8 million, and will be making almost $21 million next year.  I'd take Holliday.  JD Drew made 14 million this year as well.  Jason Werth made 10.5 this year, in 2013 he'll be making 16.5 million, and 2014 he'll be making almost 21 million.  I'd take Holliday over Werth.  Josh Hamilton will be making 15 million next year, which is a deal, but it's also part of the contract he signed that bought out his arbitration years.  Beltran made 20 million this year, Etheir in an arbitration deal was making just shy of 10 million, Rios was making 12.5 million, and Soriano was making 19 million this year.  An injured Holliday was still more valuable.  Of all the OFers who aren't still working in arbitration deals/or extension buy outs, I'd take the Holliday deal over just about all of them. 

2013?  If we don't ink Albert soon, Craig takes over in right for Berkman in 2012, with Lance moving to 1st.  I was hoping that the 'high' of winning a championship would have helped Albert and management bridge their differences and maybe split the difference.  Obviously, that didn't happen.  I don't have a crystal ball, but management already was signing guys before the season ended, as if to acknowledge that Albert might not be back.

If we see even a mid level signing now, say in the $4 or $5 million range, almost certainly Albert is gone.

As far as Jay goes, I think you have to give him another year.  Yeah, maybe he's one of those 'one and done' kind of guys.  The vast majority of big league players are.  But Jay showed me just enough to warrant another extended look.  I'm sure management feels the same way or they wouldn't have dealt Rasmus.  they would have looked like complete and utter fools had Jay tanked in the 2nd half of 2011 (as he did in 2010), but of course he faded only a bit.

As I said, we're on hold.  If albert is gone, I think they make an atempt to sign a middle infielder with some pop.  Then, they can use Schumaker as both the backup CFer and a backup infielder.  He'd have to concede a little pay, I think, but I would guess he would do that to stay here.

this isn't even a conversation.  it is a non-versation. 
1. Matt Holliday is an elite player in todays game.
2. despite being injured on and off he still had a very good season
3. there has not been one single rumor or rumbling from any source linking holliday to any trade this off-season.

Just because a guy had a rough world series (because he had a messed up hand) is no reason to start speculating something that isnt going to happen (and shouldnt). 

give it a rest, there are actual important things going on with this team... this isnt one of them

  Did you look at his stats?  He missed about 40 games

Yes I did.  They look a lot like Colby Rasmus' stats from 2010.  Glad we weren't paying him 16 million then.  For the record I was for shipping Rasmus but not Holliday at this point.  There is no denying he had an injury plagued season.  Not what we planned for when we signed him for 16 million.  That was the point I was making. Also, I try not to put our player contracts up against deals other teams agreed to in what definitely wasn't their finest hour (Crawford, Werth, Drew etc.)

Yes I did.  They look a lot like Colby Rasmus' stats from 2010.

Not really.  Colby played 20 more games in 2010 than Holliday played this year.  In 20 more games he mustered one more HR than Holliday, 2 more runs, and 9 less RBIs.  Also his slash line was quite a bit worse than Holliday's.  Despite the inujry plagued season, he still came awfully close to being worth every penny of the 17 million (I don't know why 16 million is the number that's getting thrown out there).  

Also, I try not to put our player contracts up against deals other teams agreed to in what definitely wasn't their finest hour (Crawford, Werth, Drew etc.)

Then how do you compare if he's been worth the money?  You can't compare him to guys still in their rookie contracts or in years of arbitration since they haven't had a chance to force a teams hand into paying full price, so if you're going to say whether he's been worth the money, you have to find guys who play a similar position and were signed for the same ballpark figures.  Without having a logical/relaistic comparison you have absolutely zero basis to say that he hasn't been worth the money we've paid him.


He's clearly been better than Rasmus (this season was still better than any season Rasmus has put up so far), but money wise, you can't compare the two b/c Rasmus is still on his rookie contract (he's up for his first year of arbitration this offseason).  That's just a completely worthless comparison considering Rasmus couldn't have signed for more.  You're not going to sign anyone who's decent for the same as a rookie contract (which is somewhere around 400,000/year).  If that's your litmus test, then just about every rookie starter in baseball is better off for us than Holliday... or just about anyone who's past their arbitration years.  

 

Not really.  

Actually they are...Rasmus with more games played, more runs, rbis, and sb. Holliday with a better slash line...which has a tendency to be overrated.  Remember Rasmus did that from the 2 spot and not hitting behind Pujols.

Then how do you compare if he's been worth the money?

How does one determine whether he has been worth the money?... I think is what you are asking...By production vs. what the Cardinals are paying him.

 you have to find guys who play a similar position and were signed for the same ballpark figures.

Found one, Berkman.  So compared to Berkman, Holliday underproduced by a huge margin. 

He's clearly been better than Rasmus 

Never argued that fact...just stated the Cardinals didn't sign Holliday for the line he put up this year...guaranteed.

 

money wise, you can't compare the two b/c Rasmus is still on his rookie contract (he's up for his first year of arbitration this offseason).  

I never compared them moneywise...you asked if I had seen his stats, I said yes they look like Rasmus 2010 season.

 17 million (I don't know why 16 million is the number that's getting thrown out there).  

If you want to get particular he is only getting over 15 million a year because 1.4 or 1.6 million (what he will be paid a year 2020-2029) is deferred through 2029.

Remember Rasmus did that from the 2 spot and not hitting behind Pujols.

That means he should have A LOT more runs.

 Holliday with a better slash line...which has a tendency to be overrated.

I've never heard anyone state that the slash line is overrated.  You'll be hard pressed to find legitimate baseball guys say that the slash line is overrated.  They'll tell you runs, RBI's, or, on it's own, average is overrated.


By production vs. what the Cardinals are paying him.

 

on it's own, average is overrated.

That is what I meant when referring to the slash line...I will be waiting for your verification of being a legitimate "baseball guy" since you are the authority figure on the subject.

That means he should have A LOT more runs.

...if he didn't strike out 148 times, I guess.  Wow did Holliday have roughly the same numbers as a guy who struck out 148 times?

As I stated earlier, I don't think Holliday should, or will, be moved.

That means he should have A LOT more runs.

And Holliday should have A LOT more rbis and A LOT higher slash line.
Holliday had a down year compared to his career averages...due to injuries, being banged up and still playing or whatever.  Every Cardinal fan I know was glad to have Berkman behind Pujols and Craig in left when it mattered in the World Series.  Personally, before he got hurt being picked off third base, I was tired of him striking out swinging at breaking balls in the dirt in 3/4 of his at bats.  That being said, I know his most productive years occured at Coors field but I hope we see something close in a season where he plays
145+ games for us...that is why he makes so much more than the Allen Craigs of the baseball world.

By production vs. what the Cardinals are paying him.

Accidentally hit post on my last one.  


I'd think you have to compare what he's earned by what the rest of the league that are in roughly the same tier as Holliday are earning.  If you look around the league, Holliday's production is in line with what he's been making.

 

So compared to Berkman, Holliday underproduced by a huge margin.

Agreed.  That's pretty much an anomoly though.  He had a terrible season last year, and I think a lot of teams thought his body was failing.  If that's the basis for a contract, then pretty much everyone past arbitration isn't earning their pay, and if that's what you believe, then why pick on Holliday?  

just stated the Cardinals didn't sign Holliday for the line he put up this year...guaranteed.

They didn't sign him to get an apendectomy, tear a tendon in his finger/hand, pull a quad and injure his back, but outside of being hurt, I think that line is about what they expected.  You'd think he'd be over .300, but other than that, it's fairly in line with his career.  He actually had his best OPS+ of his career.  With Pujols not getting on base this year and nearly the clip we're used to, obviously Holliday's RBI totals are going to be down.

 If you want to get particular he is only getting over 15 million a year because 1.4 or 1.6 million (what he will be paid a year 2020-2029) is deferred through 2029.

Right, he signed for 120 million over 7 years, which comes out to just over 17 million a season (the deferred amounts are from season to season.  Although we're nitpicking, regardless).

That is what I meant when referring to the slash line...I will be waiting for your verification of being a legitimate "baseball guy" since you are the authority figure on the subject.

Never said I was.  I've read guys like Bill James, Eric Karabell, Tom Verducci etc. (both true SABR numbers guys and great day to day writers/analysts).  Runs and RBI's are too reliant on the rest of your lineup.  HR's alone only tell you that the guy has power.  Looking at Average by itself you'd take a .333 hitter over a .295 hitter, but if the .333 hitter only hit singles, and struck out every time he wasn't getting a hit, he'd have a .333 OBP.  If the .295 hitter leads the league in XBH, and walks twice as much as he K's, his OBP may be .400+.  That's how the slash line works.  It's AVG/OBP/SLG.  It's pretty much the best way to judge a players talents quickly (it's not foolproof, but as a quick analysis, it's the best).  

As I stated earlier, I don't think Holliday should, or will, be moved. 

Not arguing that at all, just saying that 2010 Colby Rasmus didn't put up as good of numbers as 2011 Matt Holliday despite playing an extra 20 games.

 

2010 Colby Rasmus didn't put up as good of numbers as 2011 Matt Holliday despite playing an extra 20 games.

 2010 Rasmus- .276/23/66rbi, 85 R, 12 SB, .361obp, .498 slg, .859 ops, 28-2b,  3-3b.

2011 Holliday-  .296/22/75rbi  83 R, 2 SB,   .388obp, .541 slg, .929 ops  16-2b,  2-3b

Not sure where you see a glaring difference.  Especially when Holliday hit BEHIND the best hitter in baseball, until late in the WS.

He actually had his best OPS+ of his career.  

You might double check that one. And he also struck out as many times as he did last year when he played 34 more games.

 The lesson to be learned from the Holliday experience is that is insane to overpay a player on a multi year contract.  And at the time,(2009), it looked like Holliday was not going to be overpaid that much.

I don't know what the bare minimum Albert would expect, in terms of contract length or $/year.  But what if the team that signs him to a 9-year deal is having this conversation 4 years into the contract?  2 years into the contract?  Do you really want to be that team?

We don't really know what will happen with the economy.  We could get deflation, inflation, hyper infaltion.  The way to protect your club is to sign relatively short contracts, which is what we have seen from Cardinal brass in recent signings.

In the case of Holliday, I think we'll be o.k.  He would appear to have several good years left, before he drops significantly in output.

I hope you are right. When he plays (healthy), he is worth it.  I hope that this is his worst year goes as far as health is concerned and I'm certain he does too.