The 2012 Orioles Winter Thread

Amen to that! Always remember Pearl Harbor.

Hard for me to forget as it is also my father's birthday. 

Amen to that! Always remember Pearl Harbor.

So you want people in Texas to remember Pearl Harbor AND The Alamo?  I think you're asking too much from them. 

As a veteran I thank you. Though obviously I did not have to pay the ultimate price, I prefer to quote the great George S. Patton.

"People say how much honor there is to die for your country. Boys I am here to tell you the honor is not in dying for your country, it is making the other poor bastard die for his".

unfortunately on the "day that will live in infamy" those fine Americans never got that chance. It was a cowardly act that woke the sleeping giant and turned the war, and ultimately ended with those bastards being the recipients of the first nuclear bombs. Other than Hitler and that bunch of psychos, it couldn't have heppened to a more deserving bunch.

I would also like to take a moment and thank those who served and those serving.

On the Orioles home front, as usual, I'm prepared to update where the O's are (roster-wise) and who the players are that will/should/could be a factor this spring.

To date the O's have signed/acquired 19 players. They re-signed 3 of their own (OF Lew Ford, CA Chris Robinson and OF Nate McLouth).

They are waiting for 1 who has visa issues (OF Henry Urrutia the switch hitting Cuban defector).

There are 10 free agent new comers that include 17 year old switch hitting SS Pedro Flores of Alaska, OF Jason Pridie (Phillies), IF Alexi Casilla (Twins), RRP Daniel McCutchen (Pirates), LRP Dan Meyer (Indians), RRP Adam Russel (Angels), CA Allan de San Miguel (Twins), CA Jose Gil (Yankees), IF/OF Conor Jackson (White Sox) and 18 year old LSP Jan Novak of the Czech Republic.

There are 3 players that have come via trade. OF Trayvon Robinson (Mariners), 3B Danny Valencia (Red Sox) and IF Yaimico Navarro (Pirates).

There were also 2 players that were selected in the Rule V draft. LSP T.J. McFarland (Indians) was taken in the MLB draft and RRP Tom Boleska (Twins) was taken in the AAA draft.

Here's my take on the projected roster if no other players are added (unlikely I'm sure) and everyone returns healthy (also unlikely):

CA Matt Wieters, 2B Brian Roberts, 3B Manny Machado, SS J.J. Hardy, LF Nate McLouth, CF Adam Jones and RF Nick Markakis are givens. (You could argue LF, but Nate doesn't sign a contract with incentives based on 500 AB's if he isn't told that he will be the starter.) That leaves 1B/DH and Chris Davis owns one of those roster spots.

The bench will consist of 4 players. Backup CA Taylor Teagarden appears to be safe, as does IF Alexi Casilla and UT Wilson Betemit. The last spot will probably be for a reserve OF.

The O's have assembled plenty of depth here. The one starting spot at DH (if Davis is at 1B) could go to Nolan Reimold and the last bench spot to Trayvon Robinson. Both are out of options so that would make sense. Conor Jackson (FA), Danny Valencia (Traded For) and Steve Pearce (re-signed) were all signed to minor league contracts to bolster the team's depth. L.J. Hoes and Xavier Avery would also be options, and perhaps later in the season so will top prospects IF Jonathan Schoop and OF Glynn Davis.

If I had to make the call now, the 13 position players would be Wieters, Davis, Roberts, Machado, Hardy, McLouth, Jones, Markakis, Reimold, Robinson, Betemit, Casilla and Teagarden.

The pitching is much more complicated. DD and Buck have both indicated that the rotation will include Jason Hammel, Wei-Yin Chen, Chris Tillman and Miguel Gonzalez. There is never a mention who the 5th would be, but there are quite a few options even if the club does not sign a starter or trade for one this winter.

There are 19 pitchers on the Orioles 40 man roster and 12 will make the team. There are 8 starting options in addition to the 4 pitchers mentioned above. They are Jake Arrieta, Zach Britton, Dylan Bundy, Tommy Hunter, Steve Johnson, Brian Matusz, Troy Patton and Tsuyoshi Wada. That's 12 starting options. Two of them, Patton and Hunter, are probably going to remain part of the solid bullpen the O's employ.

The 7 other pitchers on the 40 man roster are strictly relievers at this point. They are Luis Ayala, Mike Belifore, Zach Clark, Jim Johnson, T.J. Mcfarland, Darren O'Day and Pedro Strop.

Here's my thinking:

The starters would be Hammel, Chen, Tillman, Gonzalez and Wada

The bullpen would employ Jim Johnson, Strop, O'Day, Hunter, Ayala, Patton and McFarland (as the 2nd lefty to start with).

That would leave the Norfolk rotation with Bundy, Arrieta, Britton, Steve Johnson and Matusz, with Richard Zagone as a 6th option and Sean Gleason as the closer. Also, Russel, McCutchen and Meyer will be available relievers with MLB experience.

The hitters available for callup will be Avery, Hoes, Pridie, Pearce, Ford Valencia, Connor, Sammie Starr and Ryan Flaherty. Maybe Schoop too.

So, as you can see, DD has put this organization on a very good course. Outside of replacing Mark Reynolds, he has already accomplished re-signing Nate ensuring that the OF defense remains stellar, signed speedy, switch hitters while upgrading the bench and have signed or re-signed players that will ensure the club's depth at critical positions.

If he can acquire another starting pitcher like Joe Saunders or better (who would replace Wada in my scenario since he's probably not going to be ready for the start of the season) and a middle of the lineup bat at DH or 1B (which would mean that one of Reimold, Betemit or Robinson would have to go), the 2013 version of the Orioles will be upgraded significantly. Especially when you factor in the returned health of Hammel, Roberts, Markakis, Reimold and Wada, the full time additions of McLouth and Machado, and that the prospect pipeline is now serving the parent club.

I am not sure why you continue for two years to tout Wada as a starter. He is not going to be ready to start the season. When and if he does ever get healthy he will not have the stamina to start. His contract is nothing so there is no pressure to force him into the rotation. You really need to find out if and when the guy can even start to throw before anyone counts on him at all. Again, the current prognosis is he will not be ready to star the season. And that is straight from the horses mouth and not the other end. LOL. If the season opened tomorrow then Hunter or Matusz are your 5th starter unless something miraculous happens with Britton or Arrieta. Of course that assumes they are all still here in March which is doubtful.


Pearce and Ford each have verbage in their contract that allows them to leave if not on the roster by a certain date. I am not sure what the date is for Ford but I think for Pearce its June 1st. I think Valencia will be on the team on opening day, but if not then he wil be shortly after. I also am not sure Reimold will be ready 100% and they like Robonson as an Oriole as opposed to a Tide. He will be given an opportunity to play his way onto this team, but of course he has to do that also. It seems likely to me that Betemit could start the season as the full time DH with Valencia and Robinson on this team.


As you say though a deal for a bonafide starter anywhere and the merry go round starts. I am still hoping that one of the guys thought to be too expensive, gets left out in the cold and we are able to get someone on a one year contract or an undermarket 2-3 year deal. I like Bourne. Not sure why because he has not been a star by any means. he just seems to be the type guy that would fit in with this team and OF. Lohse, Dempster, or Marcum would all look great in Orange and Black. Saunders would be in that mix too, but I really think he is not a full season guy any more. Lohse is going to be expensive and long term I think, but he would be a top two to go with Chen and Hammel to really give a huge 1-2-3 punch. If I were going to spend big on anyone it would be him I think.


As for FA hitter we all know the suspects. I really like Freddie Sanchez but he is not coming here as long as Roberts has the naked pictures of somebodies wife that keeps him around here. I like Bourne, but I am warming up to Swisher as well. I think Swisher ends up in Seattle, but he would be an every day upgrade with a little power tio replace Reynolds. Ryan Ludwick is also someone of interest. I thought Youk was done utnil he got traded. THat Boston clubhouse really was a cancer. If he would play DH with spot duty at the corners I would snap him up as well. And of course there is the Morse/Laroche quinella over there. I am starting to think they both stay in DC, but LaRoch would be just what the doctor ordered, and Reynolds would be a distant memory.  

Well I still have an old thought that I cant shake. Whether its news or not that the Orioles talked to the Royals about Billy Butler again this year, that ship has probably sailed yet again this year. But I just still wonder about Jeff Francouer with them and how he fits. I believe they want to move him and while the O's brass is saying they like their depth in the outfield and like their team and blah, blah, blah. Frenchy has played 1b before and is a right handed stick that hits well at OPACY. He also hits well at Fenway and New York.

With having McLouth and Markakis who are left handed sticks and outfielder and the not knowing with Nolan Reimold, having a right handed bat that can hit lefties has to be an area of concern for the Orioles moving forward. I cant imagine KC wanting too much for Francouer and if the O's arent getting what they want in proposed deals, maybe they would be willing to move something else of less value to them for someone like Francouer.

Nothing sexy about that move but it could be another solid addition that snowballs in the right direction for them, like the McLouth signing of last year or the Hammel trade from last year.

People, me included, often say it, but doesn't everyone pretty much "hit well at OPACY" LOL. I see little value in Francouer, but he is a DD type signing if he thinks that he could be one of the 73 players that Buck shuffles in and out next season. There were about 20 guys last year I said the same thing about and proved why I am not a MLB GM. Problem is he would have to be tagged as someone that will be on the ML roster as he is just good enuogh that he is not going to split time in Norfolk and be a part time player like some of these other guys may have to do, including our own guys in Reimold, Robinson, Hoes, Avery, etc. We have to rememeber that even though some of these guys may be good fits, or good insurance for us, they have a choice in it to, and playing part time for a team that had it's first winning season in 15 years is not on their wish list.

The big question mark to me is whether or not Hoes or Avery can be ready to make this team. If so the whole dynamic changes becaue they would both bring serious speed to the lineup which is something sorely needed. I kind of doubt either one is ready, but Hoes played ata high level in Norfolk and Avery did it here for a few weeks until the word got out on him. If he has worked on it in the off season, stranger things have happened.

I am not sure why you continue for two years to tout Wada as a starter. He is not going to be ready to start the season. When and if he does ever get healthy he will not have the stamina to start. His contract is nothing so there is no pressure to force him into the rotation.

Skins, you don't have your facts right. Tsuyoshi Wada was the main international signing, not Wei-Yin Chen. In matter of fact, Wada was brought in as a starter and earned the 2nd most money ($4.07m) of any pitcher on the staff last season behind Jason Hammel ($4.75m). I wouldn't call that a "nothing contract." From what I'm reading, he'll be near ready at the beginning of the season and will contribute most of the year. My analysis is simply that he will make this team better by getting healthy and playing.

When you factor in Hammel's health, a full season of both Chris Tillman and Miguel Gonzalez, and the possibility of major contributions at some point from the club's elite pitching prospects Dylan Bundy and perhaps even Kevin Gausman, there are significant upgrades coming without making a deal of any type. Personally, I would love to see a front line pitcher inked. But quite frankly, a Joe Saunders type is not a significant upgrade but rather just another arm to throw into the competition. And unlike Jazz, I think a healthy Hammel and Gonzalez could be the innings eater that the staff covets.

 I like Bourne.

I agree. However, he's an expensive bonafide defensive player who would have no position unless Nick Markakis was moved to 1B (unlikely). Or he or Nate McLouth would become the DH. Then both Nolan Reimold and Wilson Betemit would not have a job.

I really like Freddie Sanchez but he is not coming here as long as Roberts has the naked pictures of somebodies wife that keeps him around here.

He sucks...not an upgrade over Alexi Casilla! At least Casilla brings defense and legitimate speed which has equated to a very high steal percentage.

I just still wonder about Jeff Francouer

Stop wondering, he sucks too. Reimold and Robinson are better alternatives.

The big question mark to me is whether or not Hoes or Avery can be ready to make this team.

They will never be big league players. Certainly not starters. Avery can't hit and Hoes can't field and may not be able to hit at this level either. Both are fast but can't steal. With Robinson, McLouth, Roberts and Casilla, the O's have plenty of speed on the roster without those two. They are AAA fodder at best. The only legitimate OF coming up may be Glynn Davis. Avery and Hoes are not worth roster spots on any MLB roster.

Whether its news or not that the Orioles talked to the Royals about Billy Butler again this year, that ship has probably sailed yet again this year.

Butler is a good player and I'd love to have him. But he's not worth the haul KC wants in return. I think that ship has sailed and sunk! And, as I've mentioned before, Butler sits during inter-league play. Buck was versatility.

If the team does trades for a middle of the lineup bat, something has to give. The new player would either take the 1B spot or DH spot with Chris Davis getting the other. That would leave only two spots for three players (Betemit, Robinson and Reimold). I would think that one of those three would likely be in the trade package.

Nick Swisher should have been an option. Kevin Youkilis too. Both are AL East battled tested and bring with them high OBP numbers. I'm not sure why O's fans are so against him playing in Baltimore. I'm not sure if DD heard the cries or had an issue with Swisher himself. Youk is a tough ballplayer who plays hard. He plays a good 1B and would be a better option at 3B if Manny Machado slumps badly (Davis to 1B).

The cost of getting a top tier hitter will be steep. One trade scenario that I read about on the many sites I frequent, was the O's attempt to get Justin Upton from the Diamondbacks. The cost was Tillman, Matusz, Strop, and Schoop. DD hung up on them. You have to believe that the Royals wanted a similar package for Butler too. I would prefer Mark Reynolds at $7.5m or so if that's what he truly is looking to make over losing that many players. With the market out of control, Reynolds at 2 years $18.0m is a bargain. Unless the organization will add a third year to Adam LaRoche's contract request and steals him from the Nationals, Reynolds may be the best option available. Better than Michael Morse if LaRoche re-signs with Washington.

Anyway, there is little doubt that DD is far from finished tweaking this roster or adding a significant piece. And like many of you, I'm kind of frustrated. DD, however, has made very sound decisions since he arrived. Not only in player personnel, but in scouting and coaching personnel, and in all phases of baseball operations throughout the organization. Accordingly, patience is probably a virtue.

If for some reason there are no more acquisitions made, I still think the 2013 team is already ahead of the 2012 team.

Funny how you mention Francouer sucks but yet when you compare him to Reynolds, he has actually WON a gold glove and his numbers arent that far off from Reynolds in a bigger ball park playing in 81 games out of the year.

Last year Frenchy hit .235 with a .287 obp and .378 slg. He had 26 2b, 16 hrs, 49 rbis, struck out 119 times and gidp 14 times

Reynolds hit .221 with an obp .335 and .429 slg pct. He had 26 2b, 23 hrs, 69 rbis, struck out 159 times and gidp 19 times.

Yet you think playing Reynolds 11 million to retain him makes more sense than paying 7.5 M for the last year of Frenchys contract.

In 2011 Frenchy hit .285 with a .329 obp and .476 slg. He had 47 2b, 20 hrs, 87 rbis, struck out 123 times and gidp 17 times

Compared to Reynolds who

hit .221 with an obp of .323 and a .483 slg. He had 27 2b, 37 hrs, 86 rbis, struck out 196 times and gidp 11 times.

 I guess we have to disagree about what is a nothign contract for a starting pitcher. 4 million is squat. The average salary in MLB was 3,2M. Starting pitcher average was around 6. $ is nothing and easily affordable for a good releiver. The same people that think he should start are the same ones that think Koji was a starter. HE wasn't and neither is Wada. My facts are spot on. You can like it or not. Unless he shocked the heck out of them in ST, he was never penciled in as a starter option, and now that he has been hurt for a year and still not near being ready to pitch, there is even less chance he ever starts. eh simply will not be strong enough this year, his last as an Oriole, to throw more than 50 or 60 rffective pitches, if he eve npitches at all. Face it. We got taken for an 8M dollar ride so he could get better surgery. A I said I don't know what you think you know or why you think you know it, but this is just the way it is. You don't believe it and so there is no use to keep disussing it I guess, so you will just have to wait it out and see for yourself.


As for Sanchez,  Iguess if you just say everybody sucks then you will be right enough to think you know what you are talkign about. Sanchez does not suck. He will be 35 however and coming off an injury season, but he did hit for average and I want guys that can get on base. As we have said 70% of this tem has decent HR power, but we have way too many one run HR. I don't mind Casillla as a backup. I just don't see how you can't bring in some 2b and see who might be able to still play. He would be cheap and if he shows he isn't coming back strong then you cut him. I would give several 2b a look. I liked Keppinger too. I would even bring in Kelly Johnson. all the FA 2b available are over 30 except Lopez who I also would like to see. He is verstile as well so he would be a much better super utility guy than Andino at the least, and start at 2b if needed.


 I did not see that package of players for Upton or Butler, but if in fact that ws what they wanted for either guy. They would be here if I was making the decision. Agree about Reynolds. Some think he is only going to get around 4M a year. I believe he will not take a pay cut from last years 7.5 and he shouldn't. I said 3 years 25, but 2 and 18 is right there and I would be fine with it. Given the choice and the chance though LaRoche is the guy. I never really liked Youk but I now really believe that Boston clubhouse ruined a lot of guys and he may be one of them. He would be fine for 2 years as well. It took me a while to warm up to maybe going after Swisher but there was a lot of talk early so I tried to warm up to it and now I think he may be the best guy for the job.


Times have changed and you used to have to move fast and big to get who you wanted, especially if you need them and people knew it, but not so much now. As OTM says patience is a virtue and yeah you will lose out on a few guys that are very good, but by waiting you will probably gt equal value for much less money and who knows, maybe even get two.  Iam still looking for the international player of the year to be signed as I know DD has many irons in the fire on that front. I also think we are better by getting haelthy and more experienced, but I also do not think we were a 93 win team last year. I think we need to get much better to equal that win total. Too much went right that usually doesn't to believe it last season. We won't win 13 extra inning games in a row and we wont win 1 run games at as high a clip. And we wont bring in 2nd rate players that come in and give us two or three really great weeks like we did several times last year. Probably those guys that we brought back will revert to what they were that got them off their last team. i hope not, but thats how I feel. We need to upgrade with known talent in at least two positions to feel like we made gains. At least thats what I think.       

Why does Baltimore not believe in Acquiring a true leadoff hitter?


To me B Rob is one of the best in the game but you can't rely on him  to be healthy for 50 games let alone 120+.


Markakis isn't bad because he takes pitches and is patient and is a good contact hitter but that then leaves the void in the 2nd or 3rd hole.



Casilla to me is a 7,8,9 guy and everyone else to me is either not quick enough to want to be that high in the order or isn't patient enough.


I think that is the key to gets this teams bats going....When B Rob came back last yera althoughit was for like 3 weeks, the whole lineup seemed energized every game and even more so when he would have those 8/9 pitch at bats.


A true Ace and a true Leadoff man to me is this teams downfall at the moment.


I wish there was a injury disable button we could press.


Roberts
Hardy
Markakis
Jones
Davis
Wieters (Davis and Wieters to me would be interchangable)
Reimold 
Machado (Same with Machado and Riemold)
Casilla/Robinson          

Would be scary.
      


  

A I said I don't know what you think you know or why you think you know it, but this is just the way it is. You don't believe it and so there is no use to keep disussing it I guess, so you will just have to wait it out and see for yourself.

I'm much more informed than you think Skins because I read and research everything. Getting alot of other opinions and takes on situations eliminates the tunnel vision of being on one site with the same opinions and views. I will be right 10 times more than wrong, count on it! And, I can see talent and the lack of talent (for this level) better than most. I haven't missed on many. I love this game and am very passionate about it. I'm also very in tune with it because I'm still part of the game albeit in a different capacity (FHSAA umpire).

Here's a sample of a recent synopsis of a Buck Showalter quote:

If Wei-Yin Chen, Jason Hammel, Miguel Gonzalez and Chris Tillman are set as starters and Jim Johnson, Luis Ayala, Pedro Strop, Darren O’Day, Troy Patton and Brian Matusz are in the bullpen, perhaps two spots are up for grabs. Showalter raved about Wada’s progress, and if he’s ready, he’ll get a spot. Jake Arrieta, Zach Britton, Tommy Hunter, Steve Johnson and McFarland will contend for the other.

He's referring to the SP and last bullpen opening. That's what I referred to. Wada is absolutely in the O's plans in April and from my sources, there is a good feeling he'll be ready or near ready for the start of the season.

As for Sanchez,  I guess if you just say everybody sucks then you will be right enough to think you know what you are talkign about. Sanchez does not suck.

I don't say everybody sucks. Freddy Sanchez, at this stage in his career, certainly does. Sanchez has no power, no speed and is 35 years old this month. He is no more than average defensively now too. Who would he replace? Alexi Casilla is faster, younger and a better defender who can also play SS and 3B. Sanchez has no versatility. He hasn't played anywhere except DH and 2B since 2007. Freddie is not an upgrade over anyone! And if you look at his inflated years that give him some lifetime hitting credibility, you have to think "juiced up" too.

Funny how you mention Francouer sucks but yet when you compare him to Reynolds, he has actually WON a gold glove and his numbers arent that far off from Reynolds in a bigger ball park playing in 81 games out of the year.

I don't dislike Jeff Francoeur. And he really doesn't suck. But he's played for 4 teams in 8 years because he can't put back to back seasons together. He's not a 1B/3B and his numbers aren't good enought to be a DH. He won't supplant Nick Markakis in right field either. Comparing him to Mark Reynolds makes no sense. Its not apples to apples. Reynolds is what the the Orioles need (1B/3B/DH), Francouer (OF) is not. That is why Mark has a market and Jeff isn't worth half of what Reynolds is worth.

Given the choice and the chance though LaRoche is the guy. I never really liked Youk but I now really believe that Boston clubhouse ruined a lot of guys and he may be one of them. He would be fine for 2 years as well. It took me a while to warm up to maybe going after Swisher but there was a lot of talk early so I tried to warm up to it and now I think he may be the best guy for the job.

You see, we can agree even when the two of us are in the minority. I would have taken Kevin Youkilis (1B) and Nick Swisher (LF) over Nate McLouth and Mark Reynolds. And I really like Mark and Nate. But Swish and Youk are really good hitters with great OBP numbers. Chris Davis, Adam Jones, Matt Wieters and J.J. Hardy would benefit greatly with the two of them in the lineup.

Why does Baltimore not believe in Acquiring a true leadoff hitter?

I now what you mean but I'm not sure a prototypical leadoff hitter is accurate anymore. Its more team specific. If Nick Markakis or Nate McLouth energize and jump start the team, then they fit the description. If you want a speedy guy with a high OBP, then the younger version of Brian Roberts was your guy. Leadoff guys today are more Rickey Henderson types. Speed, power and OBP. Small ball has taken a back seat to long ball. In addition, the O's are not built to advance runners and sacrifice (although they seem to have addressed that issue this winter). They are built more for slugfests. I will agree that a little more small ball and a little less long ball would bring a better balance and give the team another way to win. Especially in the playoffs when you see the opposing team's best pitchers or anytime when the team collectively goes into a power slump.

I wouldn't be surprised if Orioles offseason moves are stalled a bit waiting on the Nationals to sign or not sign Adam LaRoche. I have read where DD and Buck both like Michael Morse because of his versatility (LF/RF/1B). But I wouldn't be surprised if LaRoche is in play too. The O's have coveted him for a while.

You seem to really overvalue a guy like Reynolds OTM. And he will be in the same boat that Frenchy is in being on 4 teams in 8 years if lasts that long. Talk about a guy that cant put together back to back seasons, look no further than Reynolds. Unless of course you like the 200 strike out variety a year player. Have you read that a team asked Reynolds if he would play in the outfield for them?

Maybe they dont need Francouer but I dont see the trade for Robinson as anything more than the trade for Jai Miller last year. Its depth and more than likely just a tire kick and a  send off to Norfolk if he can pass through waivers like Miller did last year. The O's will chose one of the Valencio or Casilla or whatever the hell their names are but not both, unless Roberts cant make it to opening day.

Im not sure that the O's want McLouth to play every day or play when a lefty is on the mound. Thats where my Frenchy speach comes into play. But he has also played 1b before. Regardless what they want to do with Chris Davis, it would be nice to have a better option than Betemit AND they seem to have let the ship sail on Reynolds and God Bless them for that.

As I said we will have to agree to disagree on Wada. I don't need a lot of sources or a lot of reasearch. I depend on the right source from the horses mouth. If I don't hear it with my own ears, or see it on something official from one person to another within the organization, I don't believe it. I have no reason to not want Wada to pitch, start, and be great. I want that as much as evryone, it just isn't likely and certainly is not to be counted on. Of course things can change, and someone can change their mind with performance, but Wada's health has not changed. We simply didn't know how fragile his arm was until he got here and threw some. Now we know. He doesn't have 80 pitches at once in his arm. That is what I am told, and as far as being ready for April, currently noone is expecting him to throw a single ST live game, and currently he is not even soft tossing, so how anyone you know can predict otherwise I don't really know, unless you have a direct line to Dr Yocum. That I don't have.

Time will tell, but he only signed a 2 year deal so time is running out on him. A few guys come back from this during their first year back, but most do not fully recover for several years if at all. It is a crap shoot at the very best and then he will take a seat beside Patton. He could be a miracle healer I guess but he hasn't shown that so far, or maybe Dr Yocum, who is great, did an extra especially good job, but all things being normal, anything other than extended ST for a few months and the rest of the year in the bullpen if he is able to pitch effectively, is about the most that can be reasonably expected.

Devil I don't think you can overvalue what Reynolds did at 1b in the second half of last year. He didn't make those plays, and save those errors by accident. He has found his position. He doesn't have to throw much, and his reaction time learned from 3b makes receiving throws, even bad ones, seem like they are in slow motion from all the way across the diamond, so he has time to move and dive and stretch or whatever to make the play. His SO have gone down and even if he does SO 200 times, if his numbers go back to his career numbers and the numbers he had the last half of the year, then yes I am still ok with it as I always have been at 7-9M, especially in light of his walks. He is not going to be a 3 or 4 hitter and I am ok with that. He can be the best 7 hitter in baseball. Actually it wouldn't have bothered me if they exercised his 11M option. It was only one year and it was only a couple million more than he is going to get anyway. Until he signs somewhere else he is still an option, but he did move so I don't think he thinks so.

Robinson is depth, and it is similar to the Miller trade, but they hoped for more out of him, and they do Robinson. DD has picked right a lot more than he picked wrong. They are looking for someone and will keep getting these potential guys until they find him. They like Robinson more than they liked Miller. They were actually excited to get him, so they see something there. He had a great rookie year and maybe they see why he went downhill after, or maybe everyone just figured him out after they got some film on him. I don't know but there was more buzz about thim than most guys that have been brought in for depth.

I stated that the only way Reynolds is worth nine million is if its over two years. Frankly, I don't think there's any question that the Orioles would be happy to take him at that price. I stated later in the post that I think he'd get two and ten. Here's the thing, guys like Reynolds are normally signed to short term contracts. If he wants two years, he'll need to give a small discount. That's why I think he can get a deal for one and six (perhaps a bit more with a club option) or two and ten. It's true that the one year deal has a larger annual value but it doesn't have the security of the two year deal. If he wants the two year deal, he'll have to give a discount.

From the good folks at MLBTR:

The Indians have reached an agreement with Mark Reynolds on a one-year contract worth $6MM, says Brittany Ghiroli of MLB.com (via Twitter) after Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com first reported that a deal was imminent (on Twitter). With Reynolds manning first base, the Indians will turn to Lonnie Chisenhall as their starter at the hot corner, which may eliminate any possibility of Kevin Youkilis heading to Cleveland, writes Heyman (Twitter link).

Exactly what I said he'd go for if he agreed to sign a one year deal. Obviously, if he signed a two year deal it would have been for a smaller yearly average value. Not quite one year and eight million.

With the O's letting Reynolds leave and no longer going after LaRoache, it seems as though they will be content with Davis playing 1B and Benemit being the DH. I don't mind that positioning, just so long as Benemit never sees the field.

One guy I really hope the O's try bringing back is Saunders. Loved his pitching for us and we know he wants to play here since his hometown is right by here. 

Wow, Rays just pulled off a huge deal, trading starters James Shields and Wade Davis to the Royals for Wil Myers, the top hitting prospect in baseball, and a couple other prospects.

Big move by the Rays that takes away their great combo in Price/Shields. Obviously the front office wanted to fill the void left by Upton and went and got Myers. From what I've seen and read on him, he seems to be the real deal and will be one of the better hitters in baseball in the next couple years.

But then again, its only POSSIBLE Myers can do this and they're trading one of their great pitchers in Shields (even if he has fallen off a bit). Davis was a decent pitcher as well, so the Royals did good by making their rotation a whole lot better.

As for the Rays, their rotation will look like Price, Hellickson, Moore, Cobb and Archer. That starting 5 looks a lot a better to hit off of for the Orioles, so we'll see if this Rays' move will work out or not. 

From what I've seen and read on him, he seems to be the real deal and will be one of the better hitters in baseball in the next couple years.

From what I have heard, he might be another Billy Butler...all hit, no field.  Not that this is a bad thing, especially for an offensive deficient team like the Rays were last year, but if Myers ends up being a DH, they will still need to find a replacement for Upton in the OF.  


so we'll see if this Rays' move will work out or not.

Doesn't it always?  

I suspect what you heard is that his CATCHING defense is erratic. Indeed, he was moved from catcher to outfield because his offense was way ahead of his defense and the Royals didn't want his defense holding him back. It's also true it's questionable if he has enough range to play center field. However he has a very strong arm (due to all of that catching) and is expected to be an above average right fielder. He definitely isn't expected to be a DH at this point in time.

It's a good trade for the Rays because they really can't afford to keep Shields and Price but I'm not so sure it's as great of a deal as people think it is. People really overvalue prospects and that's probably a bad idea. Losing Shields and Davis hurts their pitching depth and Myers isn't a sure thing. If he turns into Longoria then this is a steal but what are the chances of that? If he turns into an above average guy (.260/.340/.480) then that's good but may not be worth a stud pitcher. I think the question is whether they can turn Mike Montgomery around. He was considered the best of the Royals pitching prospects at one point and then fell off a cliff. If they can fix him then he can be a stud starter and make up for losing Shields. In that case, you figure that Odorizzi makes up for losing Davis and then they get that other prospect and Myers for pretty much nothing.

The Royals system has graduated most of its top prospects. Without very many top hundred guys they sort of had to trade Myers. Perhaps they could have built a deal around Starling and Odorizzi but I'm skeptical and they definitely wouldn't have gotten Davis in that case. 

They did what they had to do.