The 2012 Orioles Winter Thread

I don't think we are completely disagreeing as neither of us thinks he is a lost cause and I don't think anyone thinks he is a sure fire ML player. He needs a lot more time in Bowie and I am sure he will get it before things start geting shuffled around due injury and the needs of the big club and he goes to Norfolk at some point. HE is very young and still has a lot pf potential. But when he came in he was supposed to be on the fast track. Noth the Machado fast track, but fast. He is not on the fast track at all. He is on the normal track and if he keeps getting better he has a chance to play somewhere. Probably as a utility inf at this point, but somewhere.

Well I heard about this a couple weeks ago that we were investigating a trade with the Mets for Dickey. I really am not a big fan of getting 38 year old pitchers that sor of come out of nowhere to be cy young winners, but apparently it doesn't matter because the Blu Jays apperar close to trading for him now. I really thought he would end up with the Rangers, but the Mets are putting together a package that revovles around Arencibia or their top prospect. Travis d'Arnaud. After heir other hauls this off season it seems they have players to spare and knoe they need pitching help. I know we were in on the talks for him. I don't know what they were asking but DD is just not into trading away the prospects he is assembling, and we are not really deep anywhere except in the bull pen and with mediocre and unproven starting pitching.

It also seems that even though the Angels say otherwise, Trumbo is on the market. I like him as an everyday fielder, but if I was runnng things I would be making a run at Nick Swisher as another 25 HR guy that can play every day, or Bourn who would fill a meed for speed ans stolen bases. I just don't see how they can stand pat with McLouth unless they really think Reimold is going to be ready and effective. Routinely e don't make out move until just after the new year, and wiht the market as it is that may not be a bad strategy, but I think I would make my offer to one of these two guys soon. 

The minute a team states someone is on the market their value instantly drops, which is why teams dont make those declarations until they just cant fit that player in question into their team anymore. I'd be willing to bet with media coverage and everything in relation to sports, that anybody who knows R.A. Dickey and his story knows who was the guy that convinced him to become a knuckleballer and that was no other than Buck Showalter. Last year when the O's played the Mets, Dickey gave Buck a gift that was never disclosed because it was personal between the two guys. They have the ultimate amount of respect for each other.

Now knowing all of this and knowing that Dickey and his value will never be higher and the fact that he is at a very affordable rate, the time to move him is now for the Mets, they are clearly trying to rebuild and a 38 yr old knuckleballer isnt gonna help them on the team as much as the prospects they get in return for him. But what they are asking for is too rich for a lot of teams blood. Who doesnt want a young catcher or young short stop or pitching or an impact bat?

I personally believe and will probably be proved wrong but none the less believe that the Jays are trying to raise the price up on the O's, who seem like the best match for Dickey considering the moves on non moves they have made, the need for pitching or a starter and the connection with Showalter and Dickey. Look at the O's, they are basically the Rangers East. A fifth of their 25 man is former Rangers or at least it was last year. Dickey was a former Ranger himself.

I thought and continue to think Dickey would be perfect here, because with him and what he brings along with Chen and Tillman and Hammel, you have 4 completely different styles and that makes matching up during the season difficult and if the postseason is in the future it makes it that much more difficult.

But what are the O's willing to part away with and what are the Mets realistically gonna accept? I wouldn't be the least bit suprised to see the O's try and pull another team involved to give New York perhaps a catcher or something they like from another team, that simply doesnt make sense for that team to trade straight up with the Mets for Dickey.

I also think that the O's are waiting around to see what is left or what is available via trades after everybody noteable is scooped up on the free agent front. If the O's either over value the prospects they are willing to move or are unwilling to package all of them for a certain player, waiting (even though Im not a fan of) is a decent course to take that way they can get something better - later after the other teams have made their moves like the Dodgers, Angels and even the Braves.

Apparently it's almost final that R.A. Dickey is going to be traded to the Blue Jays. The Jays are going to trade top propsect catcher Travis d'Arnaud and other players are involved in the deal as well.

All this means is that the AL East should be VERY competitive and close to even this year. Looking forward to a great year of baseball! 

Once again, it shows how easily teams are trading their top prospects for instant help. Sure, Dickey has had an amazing last two seasons, but he's 38 years old. You got to wonder how much he has left in him, and trading d'Arnaud with some other prospects for a 38 year old pitcher might not look so good in the future.

Well I don't think you can really say they traded away their prospect recklessly if they are getting back the Cy Young award winning pitcher. I agree about him being 38 being a concern, but he is a knuckleball pitcher so the wear and tear on his arm is minimal. I mean you can blay catch with your kid until you are pretty old and the knuckleball has about the same impact on your shoulder and elbow. LOL. I haven't really decided how I feel about this but it certainly does show a committment to win now by the Jays. The guiys that boo hoo'ed about the trade just might be pretty happy they did. They have always been able to jack the ball now if they can pitch a little who knows up there. I think it ws a big wake up call for them this year when even we started putting sweeps and winning streaks on them.

I don't know how good this Travis d'Arnaud kis is, but he ws a 2007 draft pick. Thats a long time to be in the minors if you are that great, but it is who the Mets want. He must be pretty promising though, because this is the second time he has been traded for a Cy Young winner. The last time it was from Philly in the Halladay trade. Pretty cool.

You suck even worse as you proigress, and that has bee the pattern thusfar with Schoop.

And I totally disagree that you hitting should necessarily go down as you progress unless you are just wearing out bad pitching in the power numbers. In fact good batting average hitters should get even better, or at least more consistant as the pitchers get better and are expected to be around the plate much more, and hitters get not just more at bats, but more at bats against similar talent to what they should see in the majors

Which one is it?

Guys in the minors hit for more power as they develop. This is because when they start in the minors they haven't reached their full strength. A player reaches his peak physical strength at about 28. Simply put, a 20 year old isn't going to hit for as much power as a 23 year old.

Guess who Baseball America thinks is the best power hitter in our system? That's right, Jonathan Schoop. Here's a link: http://www.baseballamerica.com/toda
y/prospects/rankings/organization-t
op-10-prospects/2013/2614258.html .

From the good folks at minor league ball:

3) [Jonathan Schoop], INF, Grade B: He's been pushed, but I like him better than the raw numbers and I think he will develop into a very solid regular infielder with good pop. Pronounced "Scope" like the mouthwash.

Normally when a guy is described as having good pop, it means they think he's a power hitter. In the real world, Schoop is expected to have a lot of power and struggle with average.

Ok, this is getting boring. Let's just agree that we both think he could flame out. I think that if he was called up to the majors today, he'd be successful as a utility infielder playing solely against lefties. That's his floor. I suspect he'd have a long career in that role but it would obviously be limited. We both agree that until he can start hitting righties that he'll never reach his ceiling. But I think he's progressing very well and could be a star. If the team is as low on him as you indicate, he probably will be in Bowie and I suspect he'll crush it and be in Norfolk by July with a possible September callup.

As for the Dickey trade you have to remember that Dickey is a knuckleballer. He should be able to pitch until he's 45. Trading a guy like D'Arnaud for him is a no-brainer. Unlike Toronto, we don't have the minor league talent to trade but I would have traded Bundy for him. Getting Dickey is huge for Toronto and makes them World Series contenders.

[http://www.baseballamerica.com/toda
y/prospects/rankings/organization-t
op-10-prospects/2013/2614258.html]

That didn't work. Here's the link to where Baseball America talks about Schoop.

As good as everyone claims R.A. Dickey has been over the past three seasons (and he one hit/shut out the O's on his way to a 20 win season), its strictly been a National League thing. His record against the American league is not that good. In matter of fact, a 5.40+ ERA (versus a 2.95 in the NL). Add in the age factor of 38, regardless of what he throws, and trading a top 3 organiztional prospect is unwise long term.

And even though he throws a knuckleball, he is throwing it with more velocity than anyone else has ever done. So, no one really knows how that will pan out over a longer period of time. I like him. I'd trade for him. I would not overvalue him since he's had only 2 winning seasons and pitches to barely a .500 record however. I'm certainly not giving up Gausman, Bundy or Machado.

I still think the Orioles are still enamored with free agents Adam LaRoche and Nick Swisher. And, I still wonder if they could convince the Marlins to trade Giancarlo Stanton or the Rockies to trade Carlos Gonzalez. It would take a haul but both players are young and controllable for years. Then again, Kendrys Morales. a switch hitting power 1B/DH may be more of a reasonable trade possibility. He easily could slot behind Adam Jones and give him some lineup protection. Morales is a good glove at 1B too.

The other option would be to sign Michael Bourn (another gold glover who along with McLouth, Jones and Kakes could rotate into the DH spot)) and go the defense, speed and OBP route. The team was loaded with power last season and only lost 23 homeruns when Mark Reynolds took his power bat to Cleveland. A middle of the lineup consisting of Jones, Chris Davis, Matt Wieters and J.J. Hardy (4-7) is still powerfully productive. If the top three in the batting order were Bourn, McLouth and Markakis the OBP would be improved and open up more RBI opportunities for Adam and Chris. In addition, Brian Roberts could hit in the 9th spot and add more speed and versatility to the lineup as it turns over. And Manny Machado in the 8th spot will continue to grow as a hitter and eventually force Buck to move him up somewhere.

If the O's can't trade for a top of the rotation type, I'd like to see them sign Brett Myers or Edwin Jackson. Both are at least .500 pitchers who can pitch a ton of innings. Myers can also slide to the back of the bullpen. I kind of wanted lefty John Lannan as an option for either the rotation or bullpen but he signed with the Phillies. But no matter what the O's do with their pitching, they do have some help on the way in Bundy, Gausman and Wada.

I don't know how good this Travis d'Arnaud kis is, but he ws a 2007 draft pick. Thats a long time to be in the minors if you are that great, but it is who the Mets want.


1st rd pick (#37) by the Phillies in 2007 out of H.S.  Will be 24 y.o on Feb 10.

Last year was the #17 rated prospect in all of baseball by Baseball America. 

Last two season in the minors:


181 GP  37 HR  130 RBI  .322 BA  .375 OBP  .569 SLG  .945 OPS 

Only played in 67 games last year b/c of injury but still hit 13 HR  52 RBI  .333/.380/.595/.975

The only flaw I see in his hitting is he doesn't take a lot of walks and K's 3 times than he walks.  LAst year 19 BB with 59 K's.  The year before 33 BB's with 100 K's in 114 AB's.  Many times a player like that doesn't hit for as high of an ave or OBP as they do in the monors unless they can make adjustments at the ML level.  But, he has power AND he's a very good defensive catcher.                  

The year before 33 BB's with 100 K's in 114 AB's

I am not looking it up but 100k's in 114 At bats? 

 I think that if he was called up to the majors today, he'd be successful as a utility infielder playing solely against lefties

I think if he got called up today he would not be any kind of fielder as he has been barely servicable at only one position, 2b. And he would hit under .220 from either side of the plate as his average has steadily declined to .245 at each level he has played.


Again not saying he can't learn to be better, but he will have to do something well at some level, preferably Norfolk at some point before anyone should ever think of him doing anything in the ML. He is still young so he has a few years to pan out, but so far not so much, and with him not being someone DD brought in, he probably has a shorter leash than some other guys that are his guys.      

Can't see the O's getting Bourne.  I also agree about Trumbo.  Good power.  Good BA.  Very poor OBP.  

I think the O's should offer Machado in a package for Stanton.  Machado is from Miami.  The Marlins will need some attraction to draw fans, even it's only Machado's family & friends (LOL).  But, as someone pointed out to me before, I just don't think like Jeffrey Loria.  Thank god for that!

If LaRoche doesn't go back to the Nats, then I see him going to the Rangers.  I still like Swisher, although he tends to fade after the AS break.  But he has power for both sides AND he's a very good OBP player. 

Gonzalez is not for sale, but, for the right package, Dexter Fowler is.  Would love to see Fowler in an O's uniform. 

Kendrys Morales can probably be had a lot cheaper than Trumbo, but still won't come cheap.  If not for the injury thing, I would rather have Morales. 

It seems as though the Tigers are now ready to trade Rick Porcello.  I could see him being another Rick Peterson reclamation project.  I like odawg's trade of J.J. and JJ for Porcello, Castellenos, and I believe they would also trade Brennan Boesch if the O's threw in somebody like Avery.  That would/could open the door for Arrieta or Matusz or Hunter to try their hand at closing where they might just be dominant.  It would also give the O's thier 3B of the future (or maybe even this year) while having Machado play his real position. Boesch plays 1B and both corner OF's and kills RH pitching so he would be perfect in the LH DH spot in a platoon with neither Reimold or maybe Connor Jackson (who btw plays 1B, 3B, and both corner OF).  Of course thi is probably a pipe dream, but it's good to dream every now and then.            

I'm pretty sure that should be 100 K's in 114 GP. 

If the Orioles could fleece the Tigers for Castellanos in a deal that involves one of or both of the JJ's they'd be silly not to. He's very possibly the best 3B prospect at the moment and would make for another nice young piece to pencil in for the next 5/6 years. I was really high on Boesch going into last year but he had a really really disappointing season. Not sure i'd really want him anymore. Porcello won't ever be anything more then a "decent" #5 pitcher to be honest. Figure out a way to land Castellanos and another piece and pull that trigger though! Stanton seems lazy to me so i'd prefer to stay away from him. I'd prefer Trumbo but Morales or Butler would also be very very appealing.


~Jeff 

The Tigers don't have many prospects because they don't draft aggressively and trade most of their guys with talent. Given that they're not trading Rondon who they'll overvalue anyway (they need relievers). They have Castellanos who is a good prospect.

Aside from that, they have Avisail Garcia. At the moment, he profiles as an outfielder who could hit .300 in the majors with decent power. He could be a guy with 20 steals and 20 home runs. Thing is, he doesn't have good plate discipline so he'll need to hit well in order to have value.

Then they have Casey Crosby and Andy Oliver. Two guys with good tools and bad control.

They have a few guys with promise in the lower minors but they're very young and don't have outstanding potential. There are also a few guys who are decent but not very interesting. Good to have but not worth trading much.

If you're trading one of the JJs, then you really have to get either Castellanos or Garcia. Like us, the Tigers are low on pieces to trade for anyone decent (unless they deal guys from their major league roster). If you want to make a trade with them looking at guys like Porcello or Boesch make sense. But I don't think it makes sense to trade our closer for Porcello, Crosby and Oliver. All three are very high-risk and high-reward. If one pans out then we probably win the trade but it's likely they all fail.

I'm actually a little bit concerned about the lack of movement by this team so far.  I'm not saying to go out and make a move just to keep in the news.  But with the rest of the AL east, but it just seems that Bos, Tor, and NY are making big moves to stay competitive, and we just sit and sign minor league players with a spring training invite.

Maybe Buck is the wild card in this, and can work with lesser talent to stay competitive, but I cant help but be a little frusterated with this offseason.  Maybe the dominos start to fall with Greinke and Hamilton being signed..................but so far, not impressed.

I will be disappointed if we do not end up with one player that is a significatn upgrade over someone we ended or started the season with last year, but I also know that this team and GM has a history of letting the dust settle to let the market set itself and they don't overpay for whatever risk they are taking. That usually does nto happen until after Christmas when the unsigned guys start to get a bit nervous, or a team is itchy to trade a guy and hasn't been able to pull the trigger. I am going to wait until about the 2nd week of January before worrying about it. That is when the over priced guys all of a sudden start being reasonably priced for less years.


I am still hoping for a few guys that I think would make us instant contenders and they are still out there. Particularly Lohse, Swisher, LaRoche. One would be fine, two would be great and three would have me talking titles.