The 2012 Orioles Winter Thread

OTM, wasn't replying at you.  Was replying to this statement by skins:

 

This is not a prolonged argument, debat or whatever you want to call it, that I am going to have.

And I am not going to have it because of the statements like OTM has made. Not calling him out, many are guilty. Probably me as well so it just isn't worth the effort. It doesn't matter why you "feel" the way you do. It is all speculation. It doesn't matter if you have facts about the past here because it is all speculation about the future if you are dpending on players that have no ML past to draw on. Many that have an opinion about how things are or should be done, have no interest in considering anything else. On one thread they admit there are holes, on others they say there are not. They waffle about when or how to fill them or have their way but ar not intersted in any other way, or in having a fall back, that sitll has a good chance of allowing us to return to the playoffs, if their way does not work. I will summarize once mroe but as I said I am not intersted in spendign the next 2 months going back and forth about it. We can revisit it at the all star break and see if this way worked.

You see it really is not that complicated to me and therefor I see no reason to belabor it. We do have holes. I am not going to go back and pull up the production we did not have at second base for the last three years but it is gaping. There is no help on the way. Schoop is not the answer this season, and even if he eventually is, he is not ready now. The obvious answer is adding a veteran 2b on a one or two year deal. There is nothing wrong with "instant gratification". It is actually the best kind there is! If we had a top 10 prospect at AAA just waiting to get here it may be different but not much. You made the playoffs by all the stars aligning last season and a lot of luck. You do make some of your own luck and our bullpen performed great, but they too pitched over their heads. Well over in some cases, and I don't think you can or should depend on that again if you don't have to. If you don't have an every day starter at every position, you owe it to the team to get one. We are not yet in a position to carry guys that cannot contribute so they will be in AAA learning, not being blocked. At some point during the year, if you think they are good enough to start next year, you bring them up for injury or in Spetember. We had none of those guys last year, so you are still ayear away and should get the immediate answer for one or two years.


We are depending on not one but two starting pitchers that have never had success in the ML until short stint last year that did not even result in them winning 10 games in Tillman and Gonzalez that most seem to feel good about penciling in. The other two starters are Chen who I feel is at least solid if not very good, and Hammel who previously never had top of the rotation success either, and was hurt much of the year. He did learn anothr pitch between Colorado and here, and did not look lucky while throwing it. he looked like he had command of it and I think he will be fine. Yet we did nothing to help except get another guy that was hurt all of last year with serious injuries for a pitcher, a host of guys that have had every opportunity to excel as starters and have failed, and then a couple other guys that the best that you can really say is that they have not yet failed. Sooner or later you have Bundy. Gausman has not showed anything yet while receiving a baseball paycheck. I think he will make the team at some point but I have no reason to suspect he is suddenly going to be the answer. Some of these guys are young and will in fact become legit ML players, but not this year, and probably not next year. 

I feel better about LF only because Mclouth has been good, was injured, seems to have taken a long time to recover, but seemed to return to his pre injury skill set. at 100% healthy I don't think he is the guy that I would ultimately like to stick with, but for this year, had we done anything else, he would have been OK. He is actually the type player I would have hoped for at the other positions of need, if you feel there is a prospect that could be ready by next year.

We made the playoffs last year and everyone knows a lot of unusual things went our way that allowed that, as well as a couple guys having career years both on the field and on the mound, especially in the bull pen. A guy who was a head case in the past when closing suddenly breaks the team record? A couple guys come in from othe teams that were not bad but suddenly become unhittable most of the season as your primary 7th and 8th inning guys? A former closer that had been trash for you and all wanted gone, suddenly becomes a dependable hold guy in extra innings?

We had the opportunity to make up that grey area of how much we over achieved by simply shoring up some of the weaker positions. If you think they were not grey areas then so much the better as you just became the division champs with upgrading those spots. Byt the way if we were a lrgit 93 win team, then this absolutely would have been the year to spend on a start to put you over the top and into the WS. We weren't. And again stop with the extremes. I am not saying trade the farm or pay 150M. I am saying there were a lot of experenced legitimate veteran 2b. They were guys that would siginificantly upgrade and stabalize the position because it was so bad, while not being so good as to block someone if they emerged. There were starters out there that were every 5th day types. I understand some want an ace and I do too, but they are still out of our price range. Last year we had at least 20 times when we didn't even know who our starter was going to be for the 3rd game. Our most popular pitcher was TBA. It wasn't becaues we had so many great choices that we couldnt make up our minds. We got through it but we had a whole off season to make sure we didn't have to get through it again. And as we know most pitching prospects for whatever reason just do not make it. Simply a legit average 4th starter type that you can dpend on, and is not thatbig a deal to drop if you did suddenly become inundated wit 3 or 4 yougn guys waking up or forcing their way up. That is ho it is done. Guys should have to play their way up past average solid players. Those average solid players are trade bait once you no longer need them.

It is not a matter of forfeiting the future to make the present better. You have given up nothing, and you have blocked noone because you didn't trade them and they aren't ready now. When you are a playoff team, however you got there, unless you had a team of aging veterans giving their last hurrah or you lost a lot in FA, neither of which is the case here, there is no reason to take a step back. The positons that required improving were obiovious. I was happy with the moves made last year because they were all we had available to us and DD made the right ones. We were in a different place this year with having made the playoffs. We were a legit landing place for players who wanted to win. If we regress we fall back into the catagory of being a last resort. The guys we got last year were available for a reason, If they could duplicate that performance they would not have been. They all had talent as if you don't you never make it this far, they just are not the answer as regular roster players.

We should have a AAA team full of guys that were great prospects but after they came in the league and had their short period of success, regressed once the league got used to them. They could have some success again, but most simply were just AAAA players. They will be fine to bring up for 2 weeks for a minor injury and were fine moves to strengthen the team. But we still have the every day problems. Being the team best able to adapt to injury for a few weeks is a good thing to be, but it means nothing if your every day team lacks what it needs. One or possibly two of them probably does resurrect a ML career, but which one?

We're not ready and should not ever be ready to go out and buy a superstar at each position and I have never said that. I simply said that I would like them to go out and find one solid every day player to man a position that was not solid the previous season or seasons. That doesnt sound like a bad strategy does it? You always have weaknesses, you cannot have gaping holes. The reason you must do that, and that you cannot wait or take years off is that the solid positions are not getting more solid or better at the same time while you wait. They are getting worse and older. The time when they become the weak spots may not be this year, but when it comes, you will still be waiting for those other positions to materialize from a group of almost was players. Even if one or two of them turn out, you have new positions of need and never catch up. That is what FA is for, to allow you to catch up and get to a stable place from which to build or wait for those young players. JJ and Markakis are not getting better and we are lucky if they stay the same for a couple more years. Then we will have two more positions to fill. And this completely forgets about major injury to a good starting player.

As I have respectfully said over and over I understand the points others are trying to make about the state of this team. I simply disagree without emotion or the need to feel right or win an argumant or debate. We have plenty of depth. DD seems adept at that. Every day performers we have needs and I just wanted them to fill one of them. Just one. You lost 20+ HR and potentially much more. After Reynolds no longer had to agonize over his play in the field is when his bat came around. He ha not seen his best year at the plate yet and is still young and scary. His OBP was not bad but you do also lose the 170-200 SO, so if you fill his spot with someone that you feel does more for you than that then who is it and how do you think it effects the end result based on what the other player did last year? 

The Reynolds loss was needless and Davis is not a proven fielder. In years past he has been adaquit, but the jury is still out on him as an every day defensive fielder in my opinion. He has 261 games at 1b in 5 years. In that time he has 10 errors, but 4 of them were last season in only 38 games. I have not really said anything about 1b. He is the natural progression and this is why we made a move to get him so I also would not have spent on a 1b this year, but what about a regular everyday DH? We couldnt find a single player in all of FA that can fill the position of hitter better than who we had? Who is the young player being blockled there? It's hard enough for a guy to sit the bench all game and just get up to swing a bat 4 times and be good, to only be able to do it half the time or less because you have to platoon is even harder. We couldn't find one guy to send out and hit every day no matter who is pitching? A one year contract? Ibanez, Haffner, Abreu, even Thome or Damon? All available and all cheap. 


OK. Thats all. You either agree or do not and you have your reasons and I respect that. But it is a waste fo time to go over it over and over again. I hope I am dead wrong. I really hope Jackson and Robinson are the ones to resurrect their careers nd I hope that Casilla can hit leadoff and be a table setter while playing an above average 2b because someone needs to. IF he can't then we are back to the rule 5 Flaherty who I do not think was worth holding the rster spot last year. Time will tell.        

One other small thing about Davis. When considering his fielding, consider who was throwing him the ball and the infields he played with. When do you think you will have more problems at 1b, with Micheal Young or Betemit/Machado/Reymolds/Flahe
rty throwing you the ball? Reynolds was able to make the acrobatic play. Davis is not that defender. His stats before he came here can lead you otherwise as his numbers looked great in limited time in the field, but he needs to be able to do more for us or we will al be calling for him to be back to the outfield by Memorial Day, or at a minumum be the master excuse makers for Machado and his arm. Again he deserves a chance. It is his natural position, he was brought here as the 1b of the future, and the future is now. But I wouldn't expect too much from him defensively. Remember 1b is a position where .992 puts you last among regular 1b in the AL but that was Prince Fielder so you kind of accept the 11 errors. LOL

Sorry Jazz, I thought that it was directed at me.

And again stop with the extremes. I am not saying trade the farm or pay 150M. I am saying there were a lot of experenced legitimate veteran 2b.

Skins, you play both sides, neither well nor consistent. At least now you have a debatable topic or two.

In regards to 2B, how does anyone here know that Brian Roberts won't perform at a high level all season? He's a $10m player who HAS to play. The team does not have a budget for two multi-million dollar second baseman in case the first one is unable to perform (for whatever reason). There wasn't one decent 2B option out there that would have been cost efficient outside of the one that DD signed in Alexi Casilla. And with Ryan Flaherty still available too, there is NO reason to consider 2B a hole at this point. Not every team has a Brandon Phillips or Robinson Cano. Casilla, if nothing else is a great glove with exceptional speed and an average bat. Also, you must not be up to date on baseball scouting reports, because Jonathan Schoop is a legitimate prospect ranked as the 3rd top 2B prospect behind Gyorko and Wong. He'll debut sometime this season and could be the answer as early as 2014. If not, we will actually have a hole to fill.

As far as SP goes, again, who would have been an upgrade? Edwin Jackson (at that price) or Zack Greinke (at the LA price). Or Dan Haren (no, he's got injury concerns)? Joe Saunders at 2 years and $15mm? Kyle Lohse on a three year deal? You spout off as if the front office didn't want or try to do anything, but offer no solutions. In addition, the O's top two prospects are SP's who will make an appearance in the ML this season. And, there's a wildcard too in Tsuyoshi Wada. All of that has to be taken into consideration before bringing in another arm. So, if its not a top of the rotation type pitcher, why bother unless the price and risk is worth it?

So, if you're not talking extremes, there is no one that fits your description. I like Kelly Johnson. We have already have a player just like him on the roster in Flaherty. Casey Kotchman? The O's have a similiar player already in Ishikawa. Maicer Izturis signed for 3 years and $10mm with the Blue Jays. That's a joke. Rayburn, Fontenot, Keppinger? No upgrades there.

I also read that you're okay with Nate McLouth because he is past his injury concerns, but you're not okay with Jair Jurrjens because you are not sure if he's past his.

Sometimes you have to take a chance that a player is past those injuries. And quite frankly, outside of signing a supersatar player, I think DD has done a remarkable job of bringing in players that have all the tools needed, and just need a chance to prove their health. Nate McLouth, Conor Jackson, Jurrjens and the like were all low risk, high reward type of acquisitions.

And IMO (that's where the debate comes in), those three along with Casilla and Travis Ishikawa are exactly what this team needed. Trayvon Robinson too. The worst case scenario if they are healthy is that they represent quality depth. That infamous "deep depth" that the Baltimore franchise hasn't had in more than a dozen seasons. Its that depth that proved to be one the key components in Baltimore's improbable postseason berth. The first postseason appearance this century.

I have never played both sides of anything. I have been consistant about what I wanted and several times said exactly who and what I think we should have gone after. Except Bournem none of them were star players. If anything I have been resolute. I nfact on some of these issues for years much less this off season. Don't know if it was when you were on hiatus or what, but I have never played both sides.


I never wanted Pujols or Hamilton or Fielder or anyof those break the bank guys. they don't win championships. Championships are won by teams that are solid at every position. We have not been solid at 2b for years because we refuse to believe the Roberts is done as I have been saying for those years. HE was terrible even when playing last year. Since getting off the juice he has lost at least 20 lbs of muscle and can barely hit the ball out of the infield. It was sad to see him try. He was owed a lot of money and we have to pay it no matter what. There is no reason to pay and have no talent at that position. Flaherty is included in that. He should never have seen a major league stadium last season. He was an unprotected AA player from the Cubs. THE CUBS! He was a waste of a roster space that should have been used on multiple players that needed to come up. I don't care for rule 5 players usually anyway, and he is an example of why. Can he turn into something? Sure. Will he ever be more than a utitlity player. Maybe but I don't see it. Schoop was nto shopped, but he was also not enough to get trades done when included this off season. He was not called up to get any goods experience last September becxause he was not good enough but now his arrival in Baltimore is immenent? When he comes up and shows he can play in Norfolk then maybe we can talks about him being some kind of answer but it isn't this year. We need a player this year.


Getting these hurt and one year wonder players is not a bad idea. Once every few years you will get rewarded, but they can't be plan A. And I didn't say I was OK with McLouth. What I said or meant was, if we had signed him because we were taking care of another position, that I am fine with him as a place holder until we get around to fixing that position. I meant that he is a veteran that has been good before, got hurt and has bee nback from injury long enough to get strong and prove that he can still play. He was very cheap so if one of the what if players does come through, it isn't a big deal to sit or trade him. That is the type player I want everywhere that was a weakness. A solid player first, then some guys that could have comebacks or suddenly get it after being down for a few years after their good rookie season. I do have hope for Jackson as his injury was actually an illness and mostly strength related. 

As for paying players. I am sorry that you do not agree with the goign market rate for players, but the guys you mention did not get overpaid. Yes I would LOVE to have Izturiz for 10M for 3 years. I would have loved to have had Lopez or Johnson as well. When some combinaton of Roberts, Hardy, AMchado and Casilla go down with injuries, a quality super sub like him is going to look like a bargain. You don't think they were upgrades. I don't agree. I think they were all upgrades over what we had, which is now also gone with good riddance in the Andino departure. 


As for what the FO did or did not do, I have a very good idea. There is a big diference between inquiring about a player and having Jon HEyman report it as interest, and actually negotiating or making firm offers. We asked about a lot of guys. Guess what they weren't giving away many of them so we didn't get any. If our depth i all that awesome how come nobody wanted any of them. Machado and Bundy were nto even in any discussions that I saw. I beleive id Gausman had been available a deal or tow could have been made. Schoop, Avery, Hoes, Pearce, Britton, Jake, Matusz or anyone else was not enough to make a deal. Lets just say they didn't try very hard for many guys.


Would I have paid Lohse and signed him to 3 years? Yes. Would I have offered Bourne 5/75? Yes though I don't think that would hav done it early from what I saw. Less may do it now. Would I have signed Izturiz to 3M a year. Yes. Would I have signed Kelly Johnson? Yes. But anyone that has played regularly at 2b and had some good years woudl have been fine. Theriot, Hudson, Scutaro. Would I have sighned Swisher? Probably not, but thats because he had question marks to me, but if we had it would have bee na quality signing. There were several other OF including Bourne that I wanted more.


Again is there any problem signing a whole bunch of guys to cheap contracts and then seeing what they have in ST and maybe catch lightning in a bottle? Of course not and that would be great is it happens. you simply can't gamble you season on those guys and that is what we have done. Again I really don't see the outrage that I wanted to upgrade one position in the off season with somoene other than a cripple or a flash in the pan. One starting pitcher that we think we could hand the ball to every 5th day while we wait to see if Jurgens, or even Hammel is going to be healthy. One 2b while we wait to see if a guy that the Twins didn't want can be a good player here or a guy that hasnt been able to play for two weeks straight in the last three years can find the fountain of youth. One Hitter at any position that could either be an effective leadoff hitter or hit 4th or 5th every day, even if he didn't won a glove, instead of some of the guys we have who shouldn't own one anyway. Not all of them. Just one.   

The question really is what the Os were trying to get for Schoop. The Os don't have many secondary pieces and Schoop isn't enough to be enough to get a guy like Butler by himself. Now if the Os were offering Tillman and Schoop for guys and they couldn't find anything good then that's a problem.

Gausman has shown he's ready to be in HiA this year. He was decent in limited time there albeit with a home run problem. He could move through the system quickly but the thing about him and Bundy is that we moved a lot of our young pitching through the minors quickly. Most of them dominated in AAA. But none of them were ready for the majors. Unless they're necessary to compete this year then I don't want to see them in the majors before 2014. Let them fully develop in the minors first. Make them learn how to use all their pitches.

Just because Schoop is the third best second base prospect in the minors doesn't mean he's ready for 2013. I'm a huge fan and think he can be a rich man's Dan Uggla. I also think he could flop in AAA. He very well may start in AA this year and probably isn't an option until 2014. And it would be unfortunate if he did poorly in AAA but it isn't impossible because he can't really hit righties yet. I'd start him in AAA this year but I don't think he'll be ready for the majors until a few months into 2014. The thing is that he's very talented but he's very raw. I think that as he gains experience he'll be able to use his talent. I think he'll learn to hit righties and do better against offspeed pitching. There are no guarantees though and he needs time to learn. Unlike Machado, Schoop isn't good enough to rush.

As for the guys we do have at second Roberts is the only one with any major league success and he hasn't been good for awhile. Flaherty is not a comparable to Kelly Johnson because Johnson has done something in the majors. Flaherty has failed miserably. Maybe Flaherty will be ready for the bigs by the all star break but he's not proven. At least Casilla has major league experience but he hasn't been good or been anything other than a utility guy. Guys like Keppinger, Izturis and Johnson are at least better utility players than Casilla. They could be starting in 2013 and on the bench in 2014.

McLouth has had one good half season. Betemit can only hit righties. Reimold hasn't stayed healthy. Gonzo and Tillman have only had one good season. Britton hasn't even done that. Plenty of holes. Perhaps there are pieces on the roster who could fill them but there is nothing filled with certainty. I expect Kakes to have at least a decent season. I wouldn't be shocked if a number of our other guys regress.

But if you're in discovery mode because you don't think you're in a position to compete for a world series then it makes sense to not go after any of these guys. With the exception of Swisher there was no really cheap option and he'd cost a pick. If you want to wait one more year to see what you have and then go after free agents then fine. Certainly there are plenty of outfielders who will be FAs next year.

There's a huge difference between a hole and a possible hole. Would you rather sign and play Scott Rolen at 3B rather than give Manny Machado a shot? Afterall, Machado has only two months ML ball to his credit and Rolen a lifetime. Rolen is certainly the better option, right? Does that make Manny one of "those holes" since he hasn't played even a year of ML ball?

Are you sure you'd rather have Kyle Lohse and Joe Saunders in the rotation (at about a $50mm commitment) even if it means bumping Chris Tillman, Miguel Gonzalez or both from the rotation? Its true that Tillman and Gonzales have had only one good season a piece, but Lohse, who reinvented himself in his 30's, has only had three. Saunders has had no really great years. Are you willing to impede the growth process of the young arms for that? Are you sure that its even an upgrade? Isn't Dylan Bundy the ace in waiting? Every single scout and writer believes he'll be in the rotation by June, so is there realy a hole there? Jason Hammel filled it admirably last season when healthy.

At 2B, Brian Roberts represents more than 10% of the 2013 payroll. In hindsight, a really poor investment. However, from a business perspective, you have to go with B-Rob as long as you can. If he fails to compete or stay healthy, it will enable the team to look elsewhere next season if Jonathan Schoop does not progress and the in house players don't impress. But 2B is not a hole as we speak. Roberts has been a great option all of his career and until he proves otherwise (and like most you skeptics I don't think he will) is not a hole until next year when his contract expires. Then, if the alternate options are less than appealing, the team can spend big money and get Robinson Cano or Aaron Hill. But until a hole actually exists at 2B, there is no hole and the organization certainly isn't going to tie up anymore salary at that position.

In LF, the Orioles actually have alot of options. If Nate McLouth continues to spark the team and play great defense, he could be the guy for another 5 years. Nolan Reimold, if healthy, is a fan favorite who has shown flashes of what he can do offensively. Switch hitter Trayvon Robinson is only 25, owns a .355 minor league OBP and is another speedster. He is actually very similiar to Nate McLouth. Then there is Henry Urrutia, who may very well be the starting LF next season if he gets his visa problems worked out. If none of these guys are the answer, then Michael Morse and Carlos Gomez are free agent options next season. CarGo is the only 2014 free agent outfielder under 30 years old. But as of now, LF is not a hole. Like 2B and the rotation, it could be if nothing works out.

My guess is that everyone will know more as spring training progresses. Someone will play well and get recognized and rewarded, and someone will severely disappoint. Its the nature of things. For those of us who have played for organized teams (of any sport) we know there is no substitute for talent. But too often we get caught up in "upgrading" without allowing the young talented guys that are already onboard, the chance to be that upgrade. But to allow that maturation to take place, the team must have solid back-up options available in case of failure. And, that's exactly what DD and the Baltimore Orioles franchise has done with its "deep depth."

So, there are no visible holes on this O's team that have been exposed yet. I'm not saying there won't be, but until there actually is one, there are none. I am certainly a believer in being proactive and I think DD has done his due dilligence. This O's team is loaded with quality depth in case the young, maturing players hit some bumps in the road. It should be an interesting spring.

My mistake. We are fine. our 93 wins were completely legitimate, deserved and earned based on the talent and coaching of our onfield product, and since 93 wins will get you into the playoffs every year we really needed to do nothing. We did however improve by subtraction as well as getting back Brian Roberts and signing some players that were hurt or failed elsewhere that will almost certainly have big comeback, if not career years, so 100 win season here we come!!

I cannot copy and paste for some reason on this server, at this client, and i am not going to type it in, but when I get home I will post the good and the bad of the teams scouting report on Schoop. Just to give you a preview, it says several times potential vs performance. The way I see it, performance is what you keep, and potential is what you trade. I am not advocating trading him as he is the only potential we even have at that position, but he also has not shown that he should be considered the starter in waiting. DD loves the international guys so he probably will and should get every opportunity in 2014 or 2015.

I have the same problem with copying and pasting.

I wouldn't want Lohse and Saunders. I would want Lohse or Saunders. Basically, one of the two and not both. Honestly, I would just as soon have Dempster, McCarthy, Marcum, Baker or Feldman then Lohse and at least as much as Saunders. Preferably a one year deal is what I'd want but I could live with a two year deal. Lohse would take at least three which is why I'm not sure I'd want him. Dempster wasn't going to happen but the other guys were possibilities.

Arrieta, Britton and Tillman each dominated AAA before coming to the majors. Matusz dominated AA before making it to the majors. They all performed well in the minors and each one was rushed. It didn't work out well even though they pitched so well. I'd like Bundy and Gausman to get enough time to develop that they don't have to rush. Maybe they'd be able to join the club in June but I'd rather let them have another year in the minors and then figure it out in 2014. Why rush them?

The team couldn't have known Brian Roberts would get hurt this badly. That's a chance you take with older players. Thing is that he hasn't done much the past few years. That's why the team has Casilla in the utility role... except that he's never played a full season. Casilla is a utility player. Perhaps Flaherty will have a good few months in the minors and be ready to play in the bigs. But you can't tell me that guys like Keppinger, Izturis and Johnson wouldn't be better options. The thing about Keppinger and Izturis is that they're utility players. If Schoop is able to come to the majors then you use these guys as subs which should be their role.

Machado is a top ten prospect. He's been rushed and it would be good to have another option at third but he's done well in the majors. Our other guys in the minors (aside from Bundy and Gausman) aren't nearly as good and our question marks in the majors all have flaws.

In LF we have a lot of options but nothing that really stands out. McLouth did well for us last year but we had poor production from that position because he joined the team so late in the season. Before then, we had to suffer through guys like Chavez, Avery and Pearce. If McLouth played 120 games then we probably take the division.

You're right. It will be an interesting Spring. We'll know more as the season progresses. Someone from the group of Britton, Arrieta, Johnson, Jurrjens, Matusz will doubtless step up and seize the fifth spot. One of Avery, Hoes, Urrutia (if he's here), Robinson, Valencia, etc will grab a reserve spot. Machado will compete for a shot to be in the majors (but if he does poorly in Spring Training I wonder where he'll end up). As the season starts there will be plenty of competition. If starters struggle they may well be pulled because we've got lots of options.

But if you look at the Nats, Cardinals, Blue Jays, Tigers and Yankees you don't see much of interest. The rotations are set(Tigers have a competition for the fifth starter). The lineups are mostly set(Yankees aren't sure who is playing catcher). They know how things are going to work. That's because they're trying to win a world series and they can't afford to have a questionable piece in a spot. They've got guys they think can succeed.

5. [Jonathan Schoop], 21, Orioles
Where       played in 2012: Double-A
Minor-league stats:.245 BA, 14       HR, .710 OPS, 50 BBs, 103 Ks   

      Schoop's top prospect status is still rooted more in projection than production, so he's entering the put-up-or-shut-up stage of his career at age 21. Or maybe he still has another year or two to go. Considering the Orioles just gave him a full season at Double-A, though, you have to admit they seem pretty anxious to get him to the big leagues. Second base is their greatest area of need, after all. And Schoop has the potential to provide something few second basemen can: legitimate home run power. But again, it's rooted more in projection than production. Mechanical flaws and poor pitch recognition have prevented him from tapping into it so far. Chances are if he's able to correct those shortcomings -- which he may never do -- it won't happen quickly enough for him to make a Fantasy impact in 2013. A late-season call-up wouldn't be unreasonable even with another so-so performance, but is that enough incentive for you to stash Schoop outside of long-term keeper leagues? Probably not

I read several other reports but this one pretty much summarizes them. some are more optimisitc about his power, and some didn't give him as much credit for fielding. He does not rate in the top 100 prospects in baseball. This could be because there are only a couple 2b that do. Again I am not ready to throw the baby out with the bath water, but he also is not a can't miss kid that we are or should be just waiting on.


Odawg apparently you have not read OTM's last few posts. There are no problems and its ok to not have major league starters. We have deep depth coming out or butts. At least one of the teams you mention cannot make the playoffs because we are improved over our 93 wins last year, and a team with 93 wins would have never not missed the playoffs under the current rules. Sit back and enjoy the ride baby!

I am going to make a prediction, which I seldom do. i do not think Schoop comes up this year though with how they brought up manny you never know. I do think he will get a chance in 2014 if he is still here, at SS. My gut tells me that Hardy will either be dealt or hurt by then, and Manny will turn into a real deal 3b and stay there. And we still wont have a 2b, So sayeth great and powerful..... oops thats what I think anyway.

Incidentally the team list that I most recently saw has him listed under the "instructional" column so my guess is that wherever our best coach is to teach him whatever he needs to do mechanically and such, that is where he will go. In other words if he doesn't go to Norfolk it doesnt necessarily mean he is not closer to coming up to Baltimore in a pinch. But not soon. And certainly not soon enough that we should not have gotten a better plan be. I mean we probably won't need opne with Roberts comng back healthy and all but....

 would have never not missed the playoffs

How bad was that? "would have never missed the playoffs under the current wild card rules....   

That's a bit of a bearish report but given that it's from a Fantasy site it makes sense. I agree that I probably wouldn't want to stash him in a fantasy league. Prospect sites are more friendly because he's a promising prospect who may be more than a year away.

The problem I have with many of these reports is that they don't give him enough credit for holding his own in AA while being one of the youngest players. They don't give him credit for having a strong second half in a league that he had no business starting the season in. They don't give him credit for the fact that pitchers stopped throwing him strikes at the end of the season because they were afraid he'd knock them out of the park. Sure, his status may be rooted more in projection than production but it's not like he's done nothing. He showed good pitch recognition at the end of the season... but certainly you need more than one good month. Still, it's a good sign.

I understand that he's not a top 100 guy at this point because people like to see prospects dominate the league that they're in. And certainly he's a very risky prospect. But I'm in love with that potential.

Most second baseman don't make it on the top hundred list because they usually aren't the best hitters and if you're a good fielder than you're probably playing shortstop. They'll switch you over in the majors if you need to move. I don't think Schoop stays at short in the majors though. He has to be at either 2B or 3B. I'd like to have him at 3B and Machado at SS because guys get injured at 2B frequently but if you have the hole at 2B then....

Of course, if Roberts comes back and plays well then there won't be a spot for Schoop in the majors. And with Casilla and Flaherty ahead of him he probably has time. Not to mention we'd probably sign another minor league guy if we had to call up Flaherty.

In regards to 2B, how does anyone here know that Brian Roberts won't perform at a high level all season? He's a $10m player who HAS to play. The team does not have a budget for two multi-million dollar second baseman in case the first one is unable to perform (for whatever reason).

I do.  After basically 3 years on the shelf and going into his mid 30s, that's two HUGE strikes against you.  He's 35, not 25.  It takes a lot of work, a lot of conditioning, and a lot of effort just to maintain your physical abilities to play at a high level when you get there....and multiply that several times over for someone in his mid 30s who has not been able to work out strenuously enough most of the time to work his way back to an MLB caliber athlete.  Remember this guy couldn't even RUN for huge blocks of time, could only hit the ball off a tee, no game speed action certainly.  He was done in 2011 and was beyond done when his scarecrow form made a brief appearance before yet another injury last season.

I would even say at this point if Roberts shows up miraculously at his 2009 form he's gonna miss 50 games with a drug suspension.  I put those chances at less than 1%.  Most likely you get a somewhat beefier scarecrow who puts up Andino numbers and will get hurt - playing less than half a season.  The team has $3-$5M to put up on a legitimate 2nd baseman.  No not everyone has a Cano or Phillips, but is it too much to ask for at least an average player?  Like a guy who fields in the middle of the pack and hits .260 with 10-15 HR and doesn't strike out 170 times?

If Flaharty is so desirable, why is he not popping up at TradeRumors because other teams are trying to pry him off our hands? 

Roberts (and Markakis) were classic examples where the team "bought high."  Neither has performed to their contract, or even close.  Not nearly as badly as Brady Anderson or Belle did in the late 90s but definitely not worth it.  I was surprised when they locked up Jones last year, I was sure they'd be scared off another 10 years of making moves like that again.

They have a wonderful precedent of holding onto players until the very bitter end...Melvin Mora anyone?  I would have rather had them cut Roberts, eat the $10M and clear the way for a legitimate every day player to land here.

And IMO (that's where the debate comes in), those three along with Casilla and Travis Ishikawa are exactly what this team needed. Trayvon Robinson too. The worst case scenario if they are healthy is that they represent quality depth. That infamous "deep depth" that the Baltimore franchise hasn't had in more than a dozen seasons. Its that depth that proved to be one the key components in Baltimore's improbable postseason berth. The first postseason appearance this century.

There's a difference between deep depth and lukewarm bodies.  Deep depth is having an actual ML caliber starter and more than one waiting in the wings who every other team is drooling over, like the Orioles' pitching staff and system in the 70s.  Like having Lee May at 1B and Eddie Murray at AAA.  NOT having an AAAA player at the ML level who was a castoff from another team backed up by other castoffs, perennial prospects who could only produce in the minors, and 27 year old guys who have been career minor leaguers.  2012 was a result of great team chemistry, a bullpen that played WAY over its head, and getting some breaks to fall their way for once.

In addition, the O's top two prospects are SP's who will make an appearance in the ML this season. And, there's a wildcard too in Tsuyoshi Wada. All of that has to be taken into consideration before bringing in another arm. So, if its not a top of the rotation type pitcher, why bother unless the price and risk is worth it?

Bundy - with 1.2 innings of service to his name - yes, is a prospect with a good chance.  Wada was injured all last year and some reports still have him starting the season on the shelf.  See Roberts argument above, plus the guy still has not pitched in this country.  Who are the other prospects again?  Same old list of the perennial prospects?

You made the playoffs by all the stars aligning last season and a lot of luck. You do make some of your own luck and our bullpen performed great, but they too pitched over their heads. Well over in some cases, and I don't think you can or should depend on that again if you don't have to. If you don't have an every day starter at every position, you owe it to the team to get one. 

Thank you, its better than retyping something like that myself.

We're not ready and should not ever be ready to go out and buy a superstar at each position and I have never said that. I simply said that I would like them to go out and find one solid every day player to man a position that was not solid the previous season or seasons. That doesnt sound like a bad strategy does it? You always have weaknesses, you cannot have gaping holes.

I'd be OK with an ace, but really, the team goes into this season (again) with holes on the staff and at 2 or 3 positions in the field.  Not a recipe for a 93 win team.

I was fine with losing Reynolds because I assumed that the team was going to go out and get an upgrade.  That's what being competitive is all about.  They have not done so.  While Davis may fill the hole there, moving him over opens a hole at DH.  You cannot fill a hole like that with AAAA players who can't play a full season healthy (Reimold) or partially skilled players who were castoffs (Betemit). 

Just to review
C - filled with an all star.  1B - Good hitter, questionable fielder.  2B - giant hole.  SS - filled with a good player.  3B - filled with a superstar who I'd be willing to be patient with if he struggles BUT this team is not good enough to work around that.  LF - not sold on the starter penciled in, I consider it a partial hole.  CF - filled with all star.  RF - filled with a good to very good player.  DH - hole.  Starting pitching - we have 2 guys who can be #2-#3 starters and one or two guys who have showed they could fill in the back end.  No rotation leader and no one who can give you 200 innings.  Bullpen - solid although asking a lot for them to repeat what they did last year.  Management and team chamistry - very good.  Mix together in a pot, bake for 6 months, you have a 78 win cake.

It takes a lot of work, a lot of conditioning, and a lot of effort just to maintain your physical abilities to play at a high level when you get there....and multiply that several times over for someone in his mid 30s who has not been able to work out strenuously enough most of the time to work his way back to an MLB caliber athlete. 

I said that out of first hand knowledge, not out of my @.  I was a Division I college athlete (track).  Not a great one, but D1 level, and it took a lot of work to get to that point.  After 1-1.5 years of injuries (where I could still work out) I have worked out 5-6 days a week for 1-2 hours/day, I have diligently stayed in shape, I have put work in on PT, did strength work that I didn't do before, and gained self discipline that I didn't have before.  I did not spend 2 or 3 years on a couch with my head spinning from concussions.  At almost 38 I am 2 years or so older than Roberts, where does that leave me?  I am now a top local age group athlete but NOWHERE near the performance I put up as a Division I athlete.  Putting in 4x the work as I did before might give me a hope of hitting a lifetime bests (which weren't all that great originally).  Putting in 4x the work for Roberts than he did before - NOT POSSIBLE as a pro.  Pro athletes are in rarified air for conditioning, and the combination of supreme natural talent and very hard work.  If you go from pro to couch for 2-3 years you just can't magically resummon your pro performance, especially at age 35.

No amount of natural talent overcomes not being able to work at it and get back to a high level...ask my friends who were once much better than I was (one of whom was borderline national talent).  You really get one chance at an ultra-high performance peak and once there you must be able to put in the work...even more work than before... to stay there.  And once past your late 20s you are sliding down a slippery slope.  Roberts hasn't been able to do the work.  Look at Tiger Woods. Able to maintain it for an admirable length of time, then he lost maybe a year, he's not what he was before, and he's 37....he may be the best talent in his sport of all time.  The fact that the guy can still win pro tournaments here and there is amazing.  But he's not Tiger Woods 2000 or 2005. 

Missing a couple weeks for an injury for a pro before returning to a top level?  Great.  Maybe they could even use the rest.  A full season, with all the available resources that a pro has at their disposal?  Questionable, and more unusual than usual, like Adrian Peterson unusual.  3 seasons?  And at age 35 with the obvious loss of mass and conditioning he showed last summer?  I'm sorry....and I really liked Roberts who was my favorite player on the team until Jones came along....you're asking for a miracle.  Or for the drug testers to turn their heads the other way.

If it wasn't for Roberts being the only thing this franchise had after Ripken retired, there is little doubt in my mind that they would have just released him and took the hit on his contract much like they did with Jay Gibbons. I feel they really want him around for this ride, but what he can contribute probably wont be as much on the field as in the clubhouse and supplying some of the younger players who have speed with any kind of heads up on how to get a lead and take advantage of distracting the pitcher and so on.

As far as the pitching goes, I wonder if DD way of thinking didnt finally line up with the way Angelos has always been. Where they dont want to invest in a pitcher long term. Normally its been 2 or 3 year deals with Angelos and the pitchers and with DD he has only gone a max of 3 years in Chen. And with Chen he was young and a much cheaper option than anything they could have got in the states because he was an unknown.

Investing draft picks in young pitchers and having the arbitration process buys them time and allows them to flip those pitchers when they are in the last year of their contracts, whether its the arbitration process or other. That could very well be the formula for many years to come. Other teams have practiced that like the A's and Rays and have had great success. The only real difference in what the O's are doing in a very short sample size is that they have invested more money in the bullpen, which they always really have.

Ok.  I'm not as much of a homer as OTM (just look at the very 1st post on this thread...sheesh) nor am I on the opposite end like skins seems to be.  I'm ore of a "let's wait and see" type of guy. 

I see some talent on the O's.  BUT, I also see a lot of IF's.  

Manny Machado has incredible talent.  Will he be able to learn to throw the ball to 1B, either from 3B or SS, more accutrately?
Chris Davis showed last year he is very talented and can compete at the ML level.  Will he be able to improve his OBP, hitting LHP, as well as his fielding?
Nick Markakis has been the face of the franchise for a few years.  Can he stay healthy this year?
Matt Wietersa is the best defensive catcher in the AL (and right behind Molina and Posey in MLB).  Will this be the year he becomes "Mauer with Power" or is he just a .250 - .260 hitter?
Jason Hammel proved that once he got out of Colorado he could become a top of the rotation pitcher.  Will his knoee hold up for an entire season?
Wei Yin-Chen proved he can pitch in the ML's.  Will he be able to compensate for the hitters adjusting to him or will he be like many of the Asian pitchers who follow a good 1st year with an average 2nd year and go downhill from there?
JJ Hardy = Exdcellent defensive SS + power hitter.  Will he be able to raise his average back up to at .260 - .270 as well as his OBP?
Chris Tillman seemed to put it all together at the end of the year.  Can he continue?
Miguel Gonzalexz showed why he was a highly regared prospect at one time.  Is he a one-year wonder?
The bullpen was insanely efficient last year.  Can they do it again?
Will the real Nate McLouth please stand up?
Can Nolan Reimold actually amke it past the 1st month of the year?
Are Brian Matusz, Zach Britton, and Jake Arrieta bullpen bound, or even possible DFA's, or can they put it together like Tillman did last year?
As a p/t player, Alexi Casilla was around a .260/.330/.700 hitter.  When pressed into f/t duty last year he becasme Cesar Izturis like .241/.282/.603.  Will the real Alexi Casilla please stand up?
Who platoons with Wilson Betemit?


Inquiring minds want to know.

This is why I love baseball.