The 2012 Orioles Winter Thread

So the questin is where do the extra 10-12 wins come from when our fluke 1 run win record comes back to reality?

What makes them Fluke wins?


Is it because our bullpen was one of the better managed pens in the league? Because they were always fresh...For the most part is young and got strong fresh arms while getting good rest inbetween most appearences. Is it because our team never quit and played every inning of all those games like they were fighting for the playoffs? Last years O's came out with something to prove and IMO, they did just that by making the last Wildcard spot and beating out what was one of the favorites from the AL, even though I'll admit we caught them at the perfect time. They were really struggling. At the sametime it was a one game playoff on the road against a very dangerous team...Now IDK about you, but I don't see a team that came out and played with that much heart and passion just falling over the next year.    

Who imporoves that much?

How about all of the young arms we've been waiting on....I'm not saying all of them are all of a sudden going to be great but we only need about 2 of them to be consistent starters. And by that I mean eat up an average of 5 2/3 or even 6 full innings then relying on the bullpen to match up and bring in JJ in the 9th. Why can't JJ remain a top 5 closer?

   How much do you really expect Machado to improve both defensivelyu and offensively?

What exactly does he need to improve on?


I mean the guy hit 7 HRs, 24 R, 26 RBI, .262 AVG in 51 games.....


Adam Jones played all 162 games, JJ Hardy played 158, Andino played 126....


Let's Say Machado starts all year at third and plays 140+ games...


If you took his 51 games and his numbers he would be around....20+ HRs, 80+ RBIs, 80+ Rs......Now I think his AVG should be .270+ but if he could contribute those numbers I'd take a .260 AVg from him....And guess what?....We just found our Mark Reynolds replacement....And I'm even willing to bet Machado wouldn't strike out as much with runners on base or in scoring position.     

 

Again nobody said it was a terrible team. it's just not a playoff team.

Any baseball fan would disagree with you....Because not only were they not only were they a playoff team (and well deserving of it) they were a very tough team that alot of teams I'm sure didn't want on their schedule come the later months of last season.

And next year there is still nobody to step up and help us to take the next step

Isn't this what we said last year? Because we took that next step last year. I mean yeah, we got Hammel, but nobody thought he was going to be the ACE on a playoff team and he still missed damn there half the season. We got Reynolds, did anyone really expect him to come in and hit 40+ HRs? No, because I remember everyone being down on him from his strikeouts....Did anyone expect Davis to contribute in the capacity he did?


No one other than Roberts and MAYBE Markakis should be "declining", so there is no reason for you to thnk any of our players can't duplicate last season. And like you said, if we can get Riemold back and healthy for an entire season, it's only going to help.  

That is why you fix one position a year. You dont skip a year hoping especially when you have only one top 100 prospect in the field.

Are you familiar with the phrase "addition by subtraction" because that's exactly what happened with the releasing of Mark Reynolds...Granted Chris Davis strikes out alot too, but he also hit more HRs, more RBIs, and hit for a higher AVG. We just need someone to teach him how to field 1B.



I agree with the last poster in the fact that the more I read your posts, you seem like more of a pessimist than a realist.  it sounds like you just don't want to have high expectations and be let down if they don't happen to make it.


And I believe everyone hear knows we should have beat the Yankees in the ALDS....Yankees played like crap but so did the O's...I Like to think the lights just got too bright for them...IDK what the Yanks excuse was...Too old?   If that's the case, what did they do to improve? They lost Swisher who is a very clutch player for them...Arod is a year old and slower....Jeter and Mariano are on their last legs....Boston is a mess and Toronto went all in on players that are essentially what you just called the O's, Castoffs....So what really makes you think we can't compete and make the playoffs or even win the division?
   


   
           
   
 
   


   
      


  

It's like you're saying it was primarily luck or something and four of those guys were playing at a high level before their injuries.

No you are the only one saying that anyone has said that, because you dont want to understand what we are writing, And thats ok. Go ahead and think you are that 93 win team. In fact by your account if those guys dont ge hurt, we must have been 100 win team at least. With Reynolds addition by subtraction, who knows maybe 105? You still have not addressed anything that has been asked. The fact is that we broke an all time major league record. It is such a record because it is nearly imposssiple to do for thousands of reasons. Again not done by the greatet teams of all time. Let that sink in.

I am not going to continue this line of threads because it is a waste of time. We concede all your points, yet you continue that ours don't mean anything. No problem, you are entitled to drink the koolaid until we lose that 68th game. You believe we earned every win, and noone disagrees with you. Individually we earned every win. Collectively we will not win, earned or otherwise, 80% of our close games. We will have just as many injuries as last year and likely more because we didn't get rid of any of the injured players, meaning some of them will not ever recover to their pre injury level, players previously injured are more likely to be injured again. In fact many of last years injuries were to players that were previously injured. The young players you continue to want to give time to will once again play to the inconsistant level thay have been. You want ot point to "every team" do it with thsi as well. Every team has young players that just didn't make it. The good teams simply do not depend on them to carry them to the playoffs. They ge someone that can play that position adequitley if the injured or young player fails. We not only do that but also stash a rule 5 player in a spot that needs to be used for a real player.


Noone has slighted anyone for last year. Whatever player was on the field, known or unknown, good or bad, did what he did which resulted in a great season. They all deserve congratulations. However the unconventional ways and players that were involved cannot repeat their play. If they could they would not have been available for nothing. The exceptions are McLouth and Oday who were already recovered from injury and had time to slowly play themselves back into effective shape and health somewhere else. We picked them up after they showed they were fully recovered. Patton could have been on that list, finally pitching well two years after TJ surgery, but he got hurt again. See above about previously injured players. 

I don't think McLouth is the right guy, but for the price he could have been perfect if it made salary room to sign another player. He does have the potential to return to a high level though and it was a goof fall back. He is an above average OF defensively and is a good baserunner. I hope he is better offensively than he has ever been but again you can't count on career years. I think its more important for your infield to be better defensiviely and you can afford a bigger hitting, less skilled OF because they handle so many less plays. Maybe thats just me though. 


And to date noone but me is concerned that this is the year Bucks team ALWAYS regress. Thats ok but if you look at his other teams, there was no reason to think they would regress to a point that the manager had to be fired either, but it happened EVERY time. How do you ignore that kind of trend? Nothing different has been done here. The team overacheived last year and had momentum. instead of building on it by filling the weak psitions, Buck per his histiry has dpended upon these players who he had last year, to get better than their already overacheiving level of last year, and it is highly unlikely to happen. I don't know why. I don't know if Bucks message gets stale after awhile. All I know is it happened every time, and here we are. It isn't a definitive reason that we must do worse, but it is just one more thing in the pile.


Any of us skeptical that this team can repeat last years success as is, want badly to be wrong. If we can win without spending money on a couple guys then that would be great, but what you are going to get, even what more you might get, out of thse guys cannot be as impactful as taking a weak position and making it a strong one. In other words since we didn't replace anyone, take each position a the end of last year and give the position a grade. On opening day do the same thing. I assume there are one or two positions that you would givea low grade to at the end of the year. Then replace the lowest grade with a B and see what this years team looks like instead of whatever we field with the same or injured players from last year. Do the same with the pitchers. Replace one starter with a #3 pitcher. Same with the batting order. If you replace the leadoff guy then move everyone down one spot and so on. If you are honest. In both cases you will see that the overall product improves by replacing that one D position with a B. That is how good teams are constructed over time. Where the player comes from can be the question. If you think we have anyone ready to be that guy on opening day or a month into the season, well good luck.


No more long posts about this for me unless somone can come up with something not based on hopes and dreams. My position is here and though of course anythign can happen, it is the logical rule as things go. For the life of me I can't understand anyone feeling this team would not have been better by taking one, just one, of the weaker positions and replacing them with a solid player or hitter in the case of DH. One ineffective player dropped or optioned for a better more consistant player instead of hoping for a guy that has never done it before in his life, or that may not be able to repeat a couple months or in some cases a couple weeks of success one time. TIme will tell and I hope you are right. Truly I do.   


            

you are entitled to drink the koolaid until we lose that 68th game


And lets just predict it right now. When that happens there will be a miriad of excuses why, but the reason will be that when we had the chance to improve our team, we did not. We waited and hoped. When a guy like Hardy gets hurt and all we have is shuffling players and putting in Valencia because Casilla is already playing for a yet again injured Roberts, we will wonder why Izturz or Lopez or Keppinger are not on this team. I will know why. You will be confused and mark it up to bad luck and wait for Schoop or Flaherty, or Avery, etc for another season. When its Markakis or Jones and we shuffle Davis to the OF and force Betemit or Navaro to play 1b and suck, and some yet unkown player into DH, some will wonder why we dont havea Swisher or Bourn or Ibanez. I will know why and you will stand behind you convictions. You are correct. Players get hurt and there are bad breaks. Where is tha plan when that heppens?


Congrats on yesterdays win! I know its only ST but as logn as you are keeping score you might as well win!     

.. and you call that realism and not pessimism? I hear everything you're saying. You're saying we will be no good this season because we didn't satisfy your need to make a signing and we apparently have no one to back up injured players even though we did just fine last season. You keep using words like "fluke" which means you think what we saw wasn't real and won't happen again even though it's pretty much the same bunch of guys that just got done doing it last year. JJ probably won't save 50 games again, but maybe some of those one run wins will be 2 or 3 run wins instead. You lean on the one run record so much as if we could win no other way than if we were to get those "flukey" wins. Did you even watch the games last year? You talk like it's virtually impossible for us to win 90 games again even though, as someone else said, I believe you and others here (as well as critics and non-believers) were saying the same kinds of things last year. You didn't flat out say "we got lucky", but your words dance around this on a constant basis lately or you're implying that all of our guys will decline even though we have many players in or before their prime. All our guys will decline, no one will play the same as last season, it was all just a fluke and say hello to a .500 or worse record. That's what you're saying, I'm not reading what I want to read, they are your words. That is pessimism.

It's the same as you pretty much putting Toronto in the post-season already. Maybe they will, but it's no guarantee. Of course the Rays will be in it, they always are and they know how to keep things going without spending money. Does anyone really think the Yankees or Red Sox have a better team than we do this season overall? The Yankees limped into the post-season through sheer will and the O's were a team learning how to win who obviously had enough jitters in the post-season to match the shortcomings of the Yankees. We were better than they were last season, we were better than every team in the AL East last season. The Rays are the biggest threat, but what did they do? They lost Upton and Shields and signed Kelly Johnson and Luke Scott? It doesn't matter what they do because they know how to win and that allows them to compete every year no matter what. Why is it assumed we can't do the same thing and probably won't?

How do the Yankees win with a bad team? They did last season and they do that because they know how to win and we played exactly the same way though with a better team overall, but we had a few offensive players who were inconsistent or underperforming such as Hardy and Reynolds constantly leaving runners on and Weiters struggling offensively with the BA. Reynolds is gone which is one less hole and even the production out of our 2B carosel was more consistent and productive than he was.

Too many conclusions are being jumped to and the heroic effort we saw out of this club last season is being minimized because it was a "fluke" and almost all our players will decline or regress. This is how our critics talk and that's a fact and that's why I have a hard time accepting what I'm reading. Maybe you're right, maybe I'm right, we don't know. That's why you play the games. Those guys new to Toronto will have to prove they can play on that turf without hurting themselves and prove that they can play together.

At any rate, just listening to the beginning of the O's broadcast on WBAL, it seems Jurrjens will start today against the Jays.

I mean, we did something that hasn't been done in 100 years last season right? Why is our one-run and extra inning records "flukes" and not accomplishments? It's just how you word things that sounds pessimistic and apparently I am not the only one who sees this.

I'd rather see one of our current players get hurt and find a replacement than signing a Bourn for 50 Mil just to be a backup? If we signed a Bourn he would be starting, he wwouldn't be filling in for a injured Markakis or Jones....We would still shuffle players to meet the needs....Just like last year...


We Lost two starting OFs in Reimold and Markakis and didn't have a Bourn or Stubbs or whoever else to step in....


If the Giants can do it with the roster they have, the O's should be able to...Granted they have a slightly wekaer division and a little better of a starting rotation but the p's can get it done.     

Jake

As I said I am not going to keep going back and forth, but new poster with more inuendo so once more to the breach. You simply dont understand what you are writing and thats ok. You want to win an argument and I am really not interested in that. I try to respectfully explain the big picture and the likely way things will play out on a big level, based on how almost every successful team has to build. You can always find the exception, and that is what our season was, the exception. The rule is what happens after if you don't take advantage of your good fortune. It's like if your car won't start and you spray a little starter fluid in the carburator and it kicks over and starts and you drive to work. You were fortunate that it started, but if you leave it that way it will happen again and sooner or later it will not start or you will run out of starter fluid. It seldom heals itself and the longer you wait the bigger chance something else breaks and you have two work arounds. You might be able to still make it run, but why would you if you know what to fix?

If you think losing Reynolds was addition by subtraction you should be happy and I am happy for you. It wasn't in any way except payroll. It's not Davis you replace him with. Davis was already in the lineup. Its whoever was not in the lineup that this year will be, and there is noone cpmparable. In fact there is not even anyone that was good enough to do it last year so why do you think they will be this year? Even if you did compare him to Davis is was one year, in every other full time year Reynolds numbers were better, and Davis has not shown he can play anywere near the defense that Reynolds did. Since we are using one year numbers - 38 games at 1b - 5 errors. Most starting 1b dont have 5 all year.

That brings us to Manny and remember I have said numerous times I expect him to grow in to a really good player, just not this year. We fawned over him because he held up very well for a rookie, but he was not that good. He was a quantum leap better than what was there before him so he looked better, and we all wanted him to be great so we noticed the good and blew off the bad. He simply wasnt that good last year in his rookie games and I don't expect a quantum leap from a guy that didnt even get a chance to play 3b at AAA or any AAA at all. Its not a slight of him but how much do you expect of him? How much did Wieters and Jones improve year to year early on?  Its a valid question since you did nothing to upgrade the position and have no backup plan except Danny Valencia. Machado had 5 errors in his short time there and Reynolds saved at least that many with not just good, but spectacular stops at 1b. If he gets those errors his fielding % is lower than Reynolds, but not Betemit, his other back up by the way. The question is does he improve enough to make up for the 10-12 wins we got in close games last year that we do not get this year. Some will say yes. I don't.


On that point we were 29-6 in one run games last year I believe and it was the best in history. We were also far above average in 2 run games, and we were 16-2 in extra innings. The 10-12 wins I mention is likely conservative after giving benefit of doubt to a very effective bullpen. Not the best bullpen in history though, and the results say they were. That is known as over acheiving and not likely repeated. We have all given credit to them but look at some of the guys that had to come up big in those extra inning games and you will also see that it was highly unlikely. The fact that it has never been done in the history of the game should be enough, but I guess its not. Kevin Gregg pitched in every extra inning game. Usually multiple innings. not good enough to chance in regulation, but came through in every extra ining game. Chris Davis your outfielder pitches not one but two innings. He pitches better than the other teams position player reliever. Pitchers that sucked too bad to start suddenly are effective in the pen. Guy sitting at the end of the bench whose names we can no longe even remember. Guys we cut and traded away. Strop who began to show his wildness at the end of the year prompting them to replace him with ODay as the set up man, pitches like an all star for 4 months, a guy who we all thought did not have the head to be a reliever, saves 50+ games. He does not do it 1-2-3 most of the time, but he does it.

All these things and many more are things you are fortunate to get and many of them are things you had to overcome. They did, and are to be commended, but if you can help it you dont go into the next year needing to overcome the same weaknesses do you? There will be new, unknown obstacles to overcome this year so if you don't solve last years then you have even more. You have to fix what is weak, not wait until it breaks, and then only patch what is broken to get by, and then leave the patch there. You repair the patch permanently or at least try to. We didn't.  


You are certainly entitled to your opionons, and you should hope and dream. I do too. You shouldn't probably say saomeone elses opinion about it is wrong. It is just an opinion. One based on experience, study, probability, logic. etc, but just my opinion. I have no crystal ball so I don't know that one of these young guys will not suddenly become Bryce Harper or Mike Trout. I don't know that Arrieta or Matusz or Britton wil not suddenly be able to pitch consistantly, I do not know that Brian Roberts will not suddenly play like the 2009 player and not the scarecrow we saw last year for a couple weeks before they mercifully shut him down. I don't know if Reimold will play a whole season for the first time and show everyone why we have waited so logn for him. It's why they play the games. But the likelihood is that not enough of this happens to help as much as just going out and getting an already good player. Just one. Not to mention you diodnt have to get rid of these guys. you could still wait and test them and use them if they somehow do over come and come through. Whi is good enough that it would be consedered blocking them if we had a good playr in front of them? I ask again why that would not have been a good idea instead of doing nothing and simply hoping and pinning your season on it? 

We have what we have so we must hope and dream that is is good enough and we all will. I will not be as disappointed as you are when it doesnt happen. I will be just a happy if it does. Again noone is saying this team regresses back to 65 wins. What we ar saying is that we could have made just one or two moves and legitimately been that 90 win team again. We did nothign to make up for the likely dropoff from the unlikely things that went our way last year. They are unrepeatable. Better play was possible. Now we root root rot for what we have because we have no choice and we are fans.  

Sess I dont care how you see it. I would think yo would know that. You put words in my mouth to try to make your points more solid, but I didnt say them. Never said they were no ood. In fact said just the opposite. They just are not as good as their record was last year. Quite simple. Use whatever word you like.  Fluke, luck, chance, fate, whatever you like. The team overacheived and were on the right side of the score more than is normal. More than anyone on history without having the best players in history. Not sure how else you want to characterize it. It is not repeatable. Or certainly should not be ex[ected to be repeated. With the same players, playing the same way, you will be disappointed becaue the results cannot be the same. Again quite simple. If you don't beleive it, prepare to be amazed and disappointed.


I have nto put Totonto anywhere except to say they significantly upgraded their team and we did not. Their talent level is higher than ours. It just is and there is no disputing it. they may not win this year. it may take them a year to jell but again that s why you add every year. One guy can likely blend in to the team. A bunch of guys might take awhile to play together, but they are great players and eventually they will if they don't get hurt. Again you read things in that are not said. The probablility is that the Rays who are always competitive and have Longoria back all year, and the Blue Jays that added a lot of talent to an already talented team, will win. Check the odds. You think the guy that make them are Oriole haters or pessimistic? No. they are pragmatic. As am I. I ahve said I expect us to finish 3rd but we will not be far ahead of the Yankees. And its not because of any magical learnin to win. the yankees have great talent. At any given time they have 3-5 potential HOF players on their active roster. They can afford for a few guys to go down because the rest of the team can hold them up. We do not. We need everyone to play to their highest and stay in the lineup, and if they don't, the guy that comes in must perform as well. That is not likely to happen every year.    


Last year is last year. Things fell into place and our team took advantage of it as they should. That doesn't happen without playing hard and we have all commended them so for you to say anything else is again simply sensationalizing your post and a lie. That was last year. You could just as easily say the eyar befre we basically had the same team and lost. you think the players played less hard? They tried less? Of course not. The bullpen was different and better and we took advantage of spome fortuitous situations that are gone. Maybe we catch a lot of teams not pitching their aces against us again. Maybe a team like the Red Sox sell of their whole team again, maybe we do win more than our fair share of close games because of our bullpen, maybe every scrub we bring in that couldn't make his previos club does hit 40 points over his average for the couple weeks he plays for us again, maybe somebody from the minors is ready to make a leap from Bowie to Baltimore and adaquitly start from day one, maybe, maybe maybe. Again why would you want all the maybe? 

LOL Ok I am really done now even when these tow guys passionately read into my posts and mischaracterize them. Everyone have fun and remember its a sports blog its not personal. I will never personally say I told you so. I don't want to be right even. History and probability and Vegas and any other level of predictive measurement say I am. I hope you are. I would have liked to have seen at least one of you baseball scholars at least give you opinion about the manager and how this is exacty the blue print he has had with every other team, and how it failed there with better players in some places, resulting in his termination every time, but even though the rest of the blueprint has come true so far, it will be different here.


Feel free to feed each other as I really don't have time to keep explaining and then rexplaining after you mischaracterize. If it males yo ufeel better, do it I guess. have fun.       

I mean, we did something that hasn't been done in 100 years last season right? Why is our one-run and extra inning records "flukes" and not accomplishments?

They were both. Accomplishments last year and flukes in the big picture of the history oif baseball and the ability to repeat them this year. Try to seperate the two. One is history and the other is the future. Flukes are things that happen once and then not again. They still happened so they are accomplishments, but still flukes. Like a 5.0 ERA pitcher throwing a perfect game. He is still a 5.0 era pitcher, with a great accomplishment, that was a fluke if he never does it again and even if he does and he is the same mediocre pitcher.


Woohooo Great Job last year!! Woohooo.......Happy now? Glad you are happy to depend on any one pf the thousands of things that can be a one run difference. We were in all those situations and extra inning games because we did not score more earlier or allow less earlier. We did nothing to improve on that. I prefer to get better and not even be in the one run situation. Not depend on reproducing things that have never been done before by teams much much better than this one. In any case I prefer to get better under any circumstance actaully. That doesn't happen by doing nothing very often. It really is that simple.

Who is it that we kept that you think had some right to stay or that is going to significantly improve? Jones, Markakis, Hardy, Wieters, Davis, and even Machado. Who else are we better off for having kept instead of replacing? Hammel, Chen, and thats it. Tillman and Gonzalez had a couple good months in the ir entire career. its not good to be depending on two guys like that but lets give them credit. What other starter deserved to not be replaced? Who are you defending? Or are you jsut arguing with me?  

On the right side of the score more than normal? So does that mean the A's and Yanks had an abnormal season too or just us? What makes us overachievers? Why can't we just have talented guys that got the job done and played as a team? If the Rays, Yanks, A's, whoever does it, then it means they have talent but if we do it, it means we got lucky and had some kind of abnormal season.

Weren't you one of the people who said Toronto will likely win the division or was that someone else? What odds? The odds are some of these players will get hurt and several of them have extensive injury histories. What makes you so sure that RA Dickey will fare any better than Tim Wakefield in the AL East? Buehrle, though he has the worst last name in the history of man, is a solid pitcher who stays healthy and is closest to a sure thing IMO. I mean, you know, how many were saying the Yanks had such a great rotation when Pineda signed and turns out they struggled all season and had to call a 40 year old pitcher out of retirement to fill the hole. Look at what the Angels did last season and they missed the post-season by what was it, five games? There are no guarantees and signing a bunch of players doesn't mean *anything* on paper. Look at what they were saying about the Marlins after all those high profile signings and what happened to them? Nothing, that's what. There is no guarantee that Toronto will be any better than last season. The potential is certainly higher, but what do you say about potential, skins? You have to do more than just sign a bunch of players to be competitive. Chemistry, confidence in each other and the ability to play as a team are way more important. Just ask the Rays. That's exactly why we were successful last season and there is no reason why we couldn't do it again.

Who is it that we kept that you think had some right to stay or that is going to significantly improve? Jones, Markakis, Hardy, Wieters, Davis, and even Machado.

that didnt read right. it should say those are the guys you fly with. good or bad slump or career year. Who else deserved protections?  

Weren't you one of the people who said Toronto will likely win the division 

I may have and that is a far closer characterization of what was actually said than insinuating that I have "put them in the post season already" as if that meant that noone else has any chance at all. I have not ever been that absolute. Anything could happen during the season and Toronto may not gel quickly enough this season to win it, but they should. The Angels did not gel quickly enugh, but showed that they were that team in the second half and then got even better this off season. I predict them to win the West this year by 10 games. You have to have some predictions. You have to have some expected order of finish, Its not gospel or anthing firm, you just have to rank them somehow so most rational people do it by talent instead of hopes of future surprise "accomplishments".


I do predict as I have stated before that it will be TB and Toronto 1st and 2nd and in the playoffs. Then the Orioles, Yankees, and Red Sox. It's not a declaration, or a guarantee, its just my opinion and I have never said my opinion is better than anyone elses. I leave that to you. I make my predictions based on talent and how the team did in the off season addressing what kept them from being better last season, the same as I did with us. Without emotion or depending on unlikely events.


I can predict every division in baseball the same way but again I have no idea what goes on during the year, I can only go by talent at this point in time. You guys apparently have better information to know that this wil lnto happen or why it is not likely to happen. You must have sad bookies. LOL.        

Sess you cant possibly believe what you write. You have so much as named every challenger and admitted that they have more talent and potential but you would rather ride with less talent and less potential. Baseball is a team sport filled with individual battles every single play. Unlike football, basketball, hockey, etc., team play has much less to do with success than in a sport where he players actually interract. Please don't take it out of context again and say that I mean it has no place. Of course the plays have to be run correctly, to the right guy, in the right situation, etc., but it still comes down to an individual battle between pitcher and batter, catcher and basestealer, outfielder and guy tagging up or taking an extra base. Of course there are extremely bad locker rooms and problems that can effect on field play. We don't have those and that is fantastic, but you still have to win the individual battles with talent. It's why pitchers bunt. If they could win the individual battle they would be swinging away.

Like the man said, you hit the ball, you catch the ball, you throw the ball, you pitch the ball. The guy that does it better has a lot better chance than the guy with the closer clubhouse.

I don't believe we have significantly less talent or potential than those guys. It's only less to you and a few others on here which you've made perfectly clear and why wouldn't I believe what I write? The point is big signings don't always equal success even if the players are, individually, among the best in baseball. We won plenty of individual battles last season as well, but we also played as a team for the first time in decades. Adding a lot of pieces all at once has more potential to disrupt team chemistry than help it.

So yes, I do believe what I write or I wouldn't write it and I never said they have more talent and potential than us, you're saying that. They have more than last year, but it has to fit together as a whole for it to be effective. They have more stars than us, but so do the Yankees. So do the Rays, for that matter. It didn't mean much last year now did it? OK though, I would rather have "less potential and talent" if that potential and talent won games over a team with several superstars that can't get things going and miss the post-season.

Curtis Granderson is already injured for almost three months, by the way and the O's are up 4-3. Three RBI by Steve Pearce including a 2-R HR and Trayvon Robinson just drove in the go ahead run yet again.

Sorry, first time in *a decade*, not decades. It feels like it's been much longer since I've been excited about O's baseball. lol

OK your right. Enjoy your championship season.

Skins, I generally enjoy your posts but by my count you have made at least two (by anyones standards) and two more semi rants after you said "No more long posts about this for me unless somone can come up with something not based on hopes and dreams."

You have stated your position over and over and over and over.................. again! We get what you are saying and you are certainly entitled to your opinion. Now can some of us have ours without being chastised? I get the passion, how about realizing and recognizing others' passions also.

OK is jaked really OTM or do they know each other?  If not I believe they should meet, they would get along well

but stuff like this is why people like OTM and I are saying let things play out, don't jump to conclusions and change things before we know if they need to be changed or not.

Every year for the past 5 before the season we here about how this team made some moves and will grow and improve and these prospects will get better and push for .500. We FINALLY have a good season and some guys play well and we hear "oh it was smoke and mirrors we didn't sign anyone we can't do it again

You see skins, these are just a few O's fans who are excited about this season. They are also fans who know a little bit about the game too. They like what they see and they want to see it grow. They'd rather be a little more upbeat. Afterall, this is the team that won 93 games last season. Oh, and made the playoffs too. Same young guys but with another year under their belt.

Forget it Kpk they make it up as they go along. Nobody ever said what they said. I asked questions that thy don't want to or cant answer.

No one is making anything up as they go along. Actually if anybody is, its you by "adding mediocre players" and then predicting, preaching and pushing how much better they make the team. Based on what? Your gut? Hmm.

You have questions that are unanswered? Ask away. I can debate with you forever. I will be more prepared and certainly more informed.

Her's my GUT feeling:


Manny Machado wins 2 games for the O's over last season's 3B debacle (post Mark Reynolds). One with his glove and one with his bat.

Matt Wieters wins an additional game with his offensive progression. That's 3.

Chris Davis is a wash.

Brian Roberts/Alexi Casilla/Ryan Flaherty/Me, you and a dog named Boo is one game better than Robert Andino at 2B. That's 4.

Nate McLouth for an entire season is at least one game better thatn the many outcasts that trotted out into LF last season. That's 5.

Adam Jones will progress and he will be at least an extra win this year. That's 6.

Nick Markakis being healthy and manning RF is probably worth 1 game more with his glove and his bat.That's 7.

J.J. Hardy most certainly will improve offensively and will be worth an additional game. That's 8.

Wilson Betemit and Nolan Reimold will outperform Mark Reynolds collectively and will increase the win total by at least 1 game. That's 9.

The defense which ranked last at the all-star break and near the top afterwards will certainly account for at least a 2 win differential. That's 11.

The bullpen is still elite. However it will be hard to improve on last season.

The starting pitching is another year seasoned and by natural progression will be better. The numbers and the number of quality pitchers dictate that. You certainly won't have just one 10 game winner.

The offense should score more runs and the defense should prevent more too.

Team chemistry and the right team manager are also key cogs in the Orioles wheel of success.

Somwhere between the rotation, defense and the bullpen, I'm pretty sure that 12th elusive win will be found.

So, individually the offensive/defensive players could easily make up the imaginary 12 game "defecit." Add an improved rotation, an improved defensive alignment, an elite bullpen, a team firing on all 8 cylinders, a top tier coach, and an offense that should score more runs than last season, there is no reason to believe that the O's will be in as many close and extra-inning games as they were last season. Perhaps this is the year that they blow out teams and have a much better run differential than last season.

No matter how you dice it, the only loss from last year is Reynolds. But, its likely that Betemit and a healthy Reimold will surpass his 22 homers and 80 RBI combined. It easily could be 30 and 100.

However, the key is the rotation not the offense.
 

You couldnt be more wrong Knaub. If they got what I was saying, they wouldn;t keep praphrasing it the wrong way to sound like something other than what I actually said. I never addresed anyone until they afddressed me. I simply stated the facts as they are. It wasnt until being accused and being misquoted that I felt the need to correct and explain. And don't worry I am done doing that. Everyone has their feelings. Most are not realistic as they ae not based on anything except since we did it last year we should be able to do it agains this year. That is not realistic bexcause of how it was done, and what the rest of our division did in the off season. I also am still looking for answers to questions I asked but along the same reasoning of your post, all I get back is the same thing. Again if you go back and look you will see I talk about the team, and then some people feel the need instead to talk about me instead. Thats because they have nothing to base their opinion on except blind fandom. And thats ok. It really is. For some thats is what beign a fan is all about and that is fun for them. It is about being entertained and having fun above everythign else.


Its very simple. If you don;t want me to keep restating my reasons for believing what I do, then stop comentong on them so I have to answer. In addition to that try and comment on what I actually say, instead of your rendition of what you think I meant. I have been accused of being a lot of things, but unclear or not writing exactly what I mean has never been one of them. Take it at face value and you will be fine. Mischaracterize or misrepresent it and you probably get it explained again. And I have not ranted, and I am not even passionate about it. I am actually pretty cold and calculated about it. My checks from the Orioles are not dependent upon wins and losses and my guaranteed contract is already signed. I am confused by the lack of action, but I am not mad about it at all. I am glad the team plays competitive ball again. I am disappointed that they are satisfied with that. I believe they are at least for this year. I believe winning last year was an unexpected gift, but not enough to alter the plan they had before the season, and that plan did not include doing  anythign of substance at the ML level this off season. I respect that they had a plan and have discipline to follow it through. But I also think that when the team shows that they are ahead of schedule, management should alter theirs a little as well.


Its not my money so it;s easy. They know their situation and I am sure there is a reason why they couldn't or didn't go out and get the help they needed to take the next step, but I do not believe it is because they are satisfied with who they have or that they think there are people from inside that are going to fill those needs in every case. They just didn't feel it was the righ time, or that those guys were the right guys to help them. I have run a successful business for a very long time and I learned from very smart people. You seldom get better quickly by hoping people who have had a chance to excel before and didn't, suddenly do. You make step changes by making changes when it is time. We wait too long in almost every case. We are wasting the best years of some of these guy careers and if the young players don't come through, by the time they do decide to pull the trigger there will be new holes to fill. When you are on the edge of being really good, you have to be aggressive. Its easy to get the first 80% of anything. That last 20% is the difference between making the playoffs every once in awhile as the 2nd wildcard, and winning a championship. Buck has been great at getting the first 80% everywhere he has been. He has not ever been able to get the last 20%. he gets fired and the next guy makes the hard decisions and goes to the WS. It just is the way it is. Those are the facts on him and the facts are not in dispute. 

You see skins, these are just a few O's fans who are excited about this season. They are also fans who know a little bit about the game too

It has nothing to do with being excited about the season. It is about being disppointed in the off season. But I agree they know only a little about the game if they believe what happened last year is repeatable.
  

No one is making anything up as they go along

Actually they were because each time they commented they praphrased what I said to twist it into waht I guess they thought I meant. If you have a problem with waht I actually say that is one thing, but if you make up something that you ca nthen argue against, that is making it up as you go along.

The bullpen is still elite. However it will be hard to improve on last season.

So how many games do they lose. you seem to add wins for the things you think improve so how many games do we regress from the best bullpen record in the history of the game? Again it is not a knock on them. Other than replacing Gregg I wouldn't change a thing, but nobody is as good as their record was. Nobody in the history of the game. 


You stop short of a prediction, but by your count we seem to be winning at least as many as last year and possibly much more. If the bullpen equals their success and we get all those improvements that is at least 105 wins. I doubt a few of them, but I actually think you are being conservative with a couple more of thsoe things being worth more than 1 win each. So now we are looking at 107 or 108 wins? Greatest Oriole team of all time? Too funny. It''s ok to not agree with me but please at least be realistic on some level. A lot of things fell our way last year to ge where we did and nit just the 1 run games. We were not bad, and we made long term improvements, but were not a 93 win talent team, and we are not now. But we could have been.

And last but not least, again, every one of Bucks teams have been in the is same position. This strategy worked at none of them and he was fired in each case. I don't think he gets fired this year no matter what because this time he was smart enough to not bet on himself and get the contract extension now while he could, but this team is in exactly the same condition to regress as the rest of his teams. Nobody seems to want to address that. We have followed the Buck Showalter blueprint to a T and seen the exact results he has seen at every stop. He did exactly the same thing at all those places after his playoff season as he has done here. After three or four times it is a proven strategy. How do you expect different results? I really like Buck, but history does not lie.  


In any case we don't have long to wait. Another month and then a month to rattle the bones of the hurt guys and see if they stay healed. Then we will see how wise it was not to pick up one guy. Just one. To fill one hole. I didint ask them to buy the off season. Just fill one hole in either the field, batting order or rotation. Maybe it works out ok. Time will tell.