The official Andrew Luck is a Colt thread

Face it. Even Polian isn't going to trade away the pick and there is NO WAY the Colt's win 2 or 3 games this season. We are getting Andrew Luck.

So, with that said, what can the Colt's EXPECT? Here's my take on that...

1) Peyton's status

When they draft Andrew Luck you can bet Peyton will have only a year or two left. Three at the most. I say this for two reasons; his health and the salary cap.

First, his health. All of us... Peyton, the Colt's, and us, still don't know how long it will be before Peyton is healed enough to even put in a good practice. Everyone is hoping it will be near the end of the season, but, even that may not occur. So, the first we might see is next year's training camps if Peyton is healthy enough to play or not. If he is, the question becomes; does he want to risk another injury or not? He might put in a year to see if he can or not, or, he might just retire. We simply don't know.

Second, the cap. What we DO know is that with the money Peyton is due to receive, it will be hard to pay Peyton and Luck, much less pay both and retain players. This might be the deciding factor on whether Peyton just retires or not as he would be asked to take a serious pay cut, I believe, given his health.

2) Luck's status

At most, I see him getting a year on the bench. At worst, Peyton retires and Luck starts as a rookie. Either way, I see a 3 year window before we can tell if Luck is any good or not. Even Peyton sucked his rookie year. Then you have the sophomore slump. So, really, it's the third year you know.

3) Team talent

Here is where we are going to be hurting. Face it, Chris Polian will survive the 0-16 season. Caldwell will survive. Everyone will survive because everyone, including some on this board, keeps saying, "it's all because of the injuries." It's not. It's poor drafting, poor decisions, poor coaching, and piss-poor players. And guess what... that isn't going to change.
Instead of having the pure awesomeness of Peyton to overcome it all and lead the Colt's to 10 win seasons, you'll have Luck who might keep Indy at .500.

Which leads us to the final one...

5) A mediocre era

Until the Polian's are ousted totally, Caldwell gets canned, and someone who knows how to draft has 3 years to retool, much less a coach that can get them ready to play, the Colt's are going to be mediocre. We'll be happy if we go 8-8... 10-6 we'll be ecstatic.

Here's to the future...

I am curious to see what happens if Manning's neck still isn't healed by the time the Colts have to make a decision about his contract option in February.  Do they risk absorbing all that money in case Manning doesn't heal?

I'm pretty sure the Polians will survive the season even with an 0-16 record, but I don't think Caldwell has that kind of built-in job security.  I think he goes if the Colts don't show some kind of improvement in the last 6 games. 

the polians arnt going anywhere. Irsay has much more loyalty than his father and doesnt want to be making the decisions on personel. caldwell on the other hand i believe will be replaced by tressel. i dont think luck is the hands down #1 qb in the draft. i also think the Colts will do all they can to get manning to play some this year, even if its 1 half just to see how he responds the day after. i believe we need a #1 rb, i feel JA just doesnt cut it. we have 1 draft to do this if peyton comes back to play 2-3 more years cause with him this team still wins 10-12 games. i dont believe luck could do that. he will need alot more help.....imo

You dont draft somebody 1st overall to sit on the bench!  Peyton Manning is your man.  Trade down, acquire picks, acquire talent!  Imagine if you could, Trent Richardson and another high quality prospect added to a Peyton Manning Colts team.  Oh, and forget Jim Caldwell too, he's gone!  Look forward to somebody like Bill Cowher, Jeff Fisher, Brian Billick, etc.  Who wouldnt want to coach a Peyton Manning led Colts team.  Easy Super Bowl contender year in and year out!  

BTW, Im a Steelers fan, I just envy the position you guys will be in next year, as long as you make all the right moves!  And I respect the hell out of Peyton Manning.  

I think -no way they don't pick Luck.  Peytons neck scares the heck out of me.  You let him get healthy and see if he comes back to full strength & you have an ACE if he doesn't.  We are all assuming Peyton will be back to full strength.  We are talking nerves and Arm strength- He may never get back to "Normal."  Let him come back and see what we have.

I think for a year you have to make it work Luck + Peyton. At 36 Peyton probably in the BEST of health, only has 2-3good/great years left anyways.  

They need a Lot on Defense - They need to change their Def philoshophy and fix they Running game.

What I invision:  Peyton comes back he is healthy, the Colts are again in the playoff picture.  They kick the can down the road a bit, I think the tough decision comes after next year.  How do you transition away from a Football god. 

A couple more senarios.  If he does come back & does not have "it" he can ride off into the sunset & Luck is in the bag.  If he comes back & has it but the COLTS suck may be for everyone involved they trade him to a good team.  The only thing that makes sense to me is drafting LUCK. 

   

Oh -just my thoughts on this but the Polians make it & because of that and their Long track record they won't go with a Fisher or Cowher. They like those Brainey Coaches that are more understated.  The Polians want to be the BIG figurehead and the dominant in the franchise.  Tressel is their next coach.  The progression is too obvious for me.  He makes a lot of sense & would be a great fit there. 

Peyton Manning  did'nt heal right so more surgery ending his streak of starts now lately the word from Manning is the same as in sept , Nothing much has changed .  Our team needs alot of players no doubt & in my opinion that starts at QB as we all are painfully aware of , Andrew Luck will be our first pick if we go #1 , I think we will get him but I also realize if we can trade down & pick up extra picks & maybe end up with a Matt Barkley I'd see that as a good choice as well .

Concerning a new Head Coach I certainly hope so , Bill Cowher & Jeff Fisher are coaches with a strong defensive teams background with our offense left intact bringing in a defensive minded head coach would be the missing piece to the puzzle .

You dont draft somebody 1st overall to sit on the bench!

Yes you do. Anytime an amateur player with this much upside (he's the concensus #1 by every scout on planet earth) you take him. That way the team has multiple options if/if not Peyton Manning plays again.

Even if Manning returns, there is a good chance that he and the Colts have a deal in place that will allow the team to terminate his contract, thus making him a free agent, and then re-sign him to a more team friendly one if he can still play. Let's face it, Peyton will be a coach for the Indianapolis Colts when he retires (whenever that is). He's not stupid. He'll be coaching Andrew Luck through Luck's prime years. Not only does Manning know this, so does Irsay and the Pollians. It could be the Peyton Manning ERA version 2. Another decade of Colts dominance in a quarterback driven league.

IMO, the Colts have some very good defensive parts. They may have the best young LB corp in the league lead by Pat Angerer. The problem is the scheme. The Bears dumped the cover-2 as their base defense this season and have flourished. The Indy defensive players are every bit as talented as the guys in Chicago but are being misused in an antiquated defensive philosphy. Other than the DL, they have some size and wingspans among them. 

The running game is not a disater either. Its the play-calling and execution. The coaching staff in its entirety is a joke. The QB situation is shameful. Curtis Painter should have been waived weeks ago. Dan Orlovsky should be the starter. He will make a great number three behind Manning and Luck next season. The Colts should have claimed Kyle Orton. He has trade value (see the Dolphins and Seahawks)

The Colts will likely have the number 1 pick in each round of the next draft. After the Luck pick, they still have a top 33 impact player to choose. That's only a pick or so away from where they ususlly pick. The number one is like the ultimate bonus pick.

Good post  ONTHEMOVE , I do have a question what are your thoughts on Caldwell .

                    thanks  Ad    GO Colts

Even if Manning returns, there is a good chance that he and the Colts have a deal in place that will allow the team to terminate his contract, thus making him a free agent, and then re-sign him to a more team friendly one if he can still play

The Colts have an option to terminate the contract, but that option comes up in February. Manning's health may still be up in the air then. My guess however is that if the Colts terminate his contract and draft Luck, Manning signs somewhere else and finishes his career like Joe Montana did in Kansas City (assuming his neck heals of course).  

The Bears dumped the cover-2 as their base defense this season and have flourished. The Indy defensive players are every bit as talented as the guys in Chicago but are being misused in an antiquated defensive philosphy. Other than the DL, they have some size and wingspans among them.

Actually I believe the Bears stopped using Cover 2 as a base defense a few seasons ago.  I think the Colts were already going this route when they brought in Coyer but injuries and a lack of depth has led them to revert back to simple and vanilla.

It's easy to get on the bandwagon to draft Luck but,really we need to look at all sides of this question quite closely

First,is Manning really finished?Second,is Painter really a lost cause?

Not to mention that,given that Manning can still play,there could be a lot of value in trading down.Rumors are that this pick could create 3 number one picks.If thats the case,that would likely be the way to go as the Colts have needs everywhere and only one player(Manning)who can carry the team on his back.The best strategy,then is to trade down for more picks.Even at that you could still come up with a good QB who would get a couple of years to develop behind Manning.Maybe Jones,Tannehill or Griffin.

This team needs some supporting talent on offense badly,especially at the skill positions.As much as I like Luck,I would try to trade down and rebuild the whole offense.Really,I like Griffin almost as much as Luck,especially with a lot of value added through a trade.

Even if Manning heals and returns completely healthy, he still on has a few seasons left. Look at his age. He won't play forever. I would say maybe 3 seasons more at the most. Drafting Andrew Luck is a no-brainer. It allows him to transition into a starter much easier. He can learn from one of the best QB's in the game for a season or two, and he doesn't have to come into a situation where he has to come in as a starter during his rookie year to be the savior of the franchise.

If anything, this season has shown that the team has glaring needs. The Polians, yes, I blame them completely, have built a house of cards around Manning. There are other areas that can be addressed in the draft, and it isn't a bad thing to have the first pick in each round. If the Colts do want to rebuild on the fly and remain competitive during the end of the Manning era, I'm fine with that. Heck, we can let Reggie Wayne walk after this season and try to draft a WR with the 2nd rd pick...or we can shore up the defense in or mid round picks. There are many possiblities that can be approached in the 2012 draft. Getting Luck is just one piece, but an important piece for the future. The Colts CANNOT afford tohave the Polians screw up this draft like they have in the past 3 seasons.

As far as the staff, if I were Irsay I would start completely fresh and clean house, but I doubt that will happen. I don't think they're going to can Caldwell although it wouldn't make me sad to see him go. He is very replaceable. The Polians...the blame should sit squarely on their shoulders for this mess, but I doubt Irsay will can them either. At some point, Irsay needs to get off the pills, sober up, and think about the future. For many years, he has had the luxury of having the stadium filled, but if personel mistakes are continually made, he is going to see the season ticket waiting list shrink.

Manning's contract makes keeping both extremely hard on the cap unless he is willing to rework it (and why should he?). If the Colts keep Manning for a year or two before trying to trade him or even just release him, they will get hit extremely hard with the roster bonus he is due in March. Even Irsay's tweets seem to indicate that the Colts organization's rosey optimism for keeping both is predicated on the assumption that Manning will restructure.  I don't see any other realistic options besides trading the first pick (Luck) for a bunch of picks or releasing Manning in March and drafting Luck.

Who would you rather have?  Andrew Luck or Peyton Manning?  I would choose Peyton because even though he's on the way to wrapping up a HOF career, I would want him as my starter.  I don't really think Andrew Luck is that great, honestly.  If I were the Colts, trade away the #1 pick for a whole bunch of other picks throughout the draft, ie Saints & Ricky Williams!!!  HA!!!  No one will do that again, but it's wishful thinking!  Take one of those picks, and pick a better back-up QB that has good tools that can be groomed under Peyton. 

If I were running the Colts, I'd trade out if I could get the right kind of offer.  For instance, the Browns draft 4th overall and have  Atlanta's 23rd overall pick from the Julio Jones trade-down last year.  If the Colts could swap the #1 and go to #4, get the #23, Clevelands second round #37, and add a first rounder next year.....I'd jump all over that.  You could choose to take Robert Griffin at #4 this year or the best QB in next years draft with Clevelands early pick while also addressing 4 different needs in the first 37 picks.  That's not even considering free agency.  Best of both worlds!  Keep Peyton Manning (as long as he is healthy) and let him finish his illustrious career in Indy, select the QB of the future with the extra picks and solidify other positions with the extra picks.

I'm with you guys on preferring to hold onto Manning (if healthy) and trade the pick. Based on speculation so far, this pick could be worth an awful lot including even multiple entire drafts. I think three first rounders plus additional picks is certainly possible. Just look at what the Falcons gave up to move up for a WR, what the Raiders gave up for Carson Palmer, and what the Bears gave up for Jay Cutler. The Colts need to realize that you can't just build a franchise entirely around a great QB. That's all fine and dandy for regular season success, but it does not equate to success in the postseason. I don't want to just reboot and repeat the past decade, I want to improve upon it. Win another championship or two for Manning now and give his successor, whoever that is, a legitimate team. Andy Dalton wasn't successful this season because he's Andy Dalton, he had a very complete team around him. 

All that said, Irsay won't pass on Luck and Manning will be shown the door. I just don't see it going any other way unfortunately. 

Trade the Pick!!!! If Peyton can play you trade the pick. Period. And even if he can't play you trade it. Indianapolis proved two things this year one is how valuable Peyton is and two how much work their team needs. 1 rookie QB will not resolve their issues and there are plenty of teams that are a quarterback away that would be willing to give you every draft pick for Andrew Luck. Remeber no one is a sure thing out of college there is no way to know how someone will respond once they get millions of dollars(see Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith and Heath Shuler) So trade him get some teams first round picks for this year and next and then several pick in later rounds. You can even draft a QB later on which would put less pressure on Peyton and maybe make him more open to helping to develop a young QB. The press wouldn't be harping on him about his replacement any time there is an issue like they will if Indy drafts Luck. I am not a fan of Indy, but Peyton is probably the most skilled QB to ever play the game and the most knowlegable. Plus he is the most marketable player in Football. This is not Brett Favre, you do not let this guy go anywhere, if he is healthy enough to play you keep him. Without him, next year is a bust anyway so load up your team with young players and develop them.

unless someone mortgages their next two drafts... you take Andrew Luck...

Peyton Manning's health and future is too much of a questionmark not to take him

you've got your Montana/Young.... Favre/Rodgers to keep your franchise winning and relevant for another 10 years.

consider yourselves very, very fortunate.

Am I the only one who smells foul play here?!?  There's no way your organization is that fragile. 

I respect you guys too much to think you only won 2 games because Peyton wasn't around.  You let up 62 points to New Orleans for "f----" sake!  I call B.S.! 

My team loses it's draft pick for this "Spygate" nonsense, but it's perfectly fine for your team to sandbag like that?!? 

I don't know how you tolerate it as fans.  I'm not here to talk trash.  I just want to know what your thoughts on this issue are.

I'm gonna quote my inner Herm Edwards right meow!


"You play to win the gaaaaaaaaame"!


"HELLO"!!!


        

I think it is very important to say that I hate the Patriots before I agree with you.  Now- I think you may be right ---Curtis Painter gate???-   But this team is horrible on defense and add an incappable QB drumroll 1rst rnd draft pick.  Franchise Qb for the next 12 years ---priceless.