Sleepers and Busts for Roto Leagues

Sleepers-

DeAndre Jordan- If you can take the hit in FT%, this guy can be a serious addition to your squad.  He will be among the league leaders in blocks now that he is locked into starters minutes and will average near a double double with good FG%.  Think Andrew Bogut without the assists or the injury potential

Toney Douglas- If the Knicks don't add anybody, he will start at the point.  He can help your team with steals, threes and scoring while getting healthy assist totals.  Temper your expectations since he is playing alongside a couple ball dominators, but he should return good value in round 10.

Jared Dudley- Dudley was a top 75 contributer in 9 categoryleagues last year and was an absoulte monster when given starters minutes.  His ADP has taken a hit due to the addition of Shannon Brown and resigning of Grant Hill, but when the dust settles, he should average close to 35 minutes per game.  Dudley rebounds well for a guard, makes a ton of threes and chips in nicely with steals and blocks.

Arron Afflalo-  Assuming Afflalo doesn't end up in another uniform, he will be a glue guy for roto teams this year.  He does a little bit of everything for your squad and should see more usage this year with the departure of J.R. Smith and Wilson Chandler.  He can play the 2 or 3, he defends well, makes threes and rebounds. 

Jeff Teague-  Teague has teased us in the past with his upside, but this could be the year he goes off.  The starters job is his to lose since Jamal Crawford is moving on and Kirk Hinrich is sidelined.  Expect inconsistency from Teague this year, but the upside gives him top 50 potential if things finally do click for him. 

Jarrett Jack-  Jack is a solid NBA back-up who looks like he will be thrust into a starting role for the Hornets.  His numbers won't be eye-popping, but the additional minutes should make him a bargain in the late rounds of your draft.  He is an efficient PG who will help you with assists and steals whle contributing healthy totals elsewhere.

Ben Gordon-  I have never been a big fan of Gordon, but the price looks right here.  He can score and hit threes and looks like the starter for the Pistons.  He should be able to outproduce his ADP if he can prove healthy.

Carlos Delfino-  Delfino is a gritty player who can be among the league leaders in 3 pointers made given a full, healthy season.  He will hurt you in FG%, but his contributions in 3's and steals will outweigh the downside.

Paul George-  Looking for a late round flier?  Look no further.  Paul George had very good per-minute production last year and now looks like a starter at SG.  The crazy part is that he may actually still be growing.  Rumor is that he is now closer to 6'10" than his 6'8" listed height.  Paul George has future star potential and could see a massive break out as early as this year.  Draft with confidence. 


Busts

Amare Stoudmire-  Amare had a tremendous start last season, but his production took a hit when Melo came to town.  The arrival of Melo along with his aching back and a compressed season make him a dicey proposition on draft day.  Amare will miss games this year and his late season production makes him look more like a third rounder than the top 12 guy that his ADP suggests. 

Stephen Curry-  I love the player, but am nervous about the new system under Marc Jackson.  Jackson is said to be emphasizing defense this year, so you can expect Warrior games to be played at a slower pace.  This is still a mediocre team, but now instead of scoring 110 points per game, they may be closer to 100 or even below.  Curry will still present a solid value, but drafters in the late first or early second rounds may be disappointed with what they get. 

Tyreke Evans-  Evans being drafted in the top 25 for roto leagues is pure lunacy.   Sure, he has the potential to put up big numbers, but his efficiency stats are not worth the early round investment.  I would absolutely take a flier on this guy in round 5, but not this early. 

Tony Parker-  Parker has never been a great roto player and he is on the downside of his career.  He only really contributes in 3 of 8 categories and is not a standout in any of those.  Parker should be selected closer to the 8th round in roto, not the third or fourth like his ADP suggests.   

Carlos Boozer-  Boozer simply is not a good fit for the defensive oriented Bulls team.  Taj Gibson is flat out better.  If you are spending a 4th round pick on a player who could end up splitting minutes, he better have a ceiling much higher Boozer's.  I am not buying.

All your sleepers are washed up, fading, waiver fodder except maybe Paul George. I trust you posted your T Dougy rec prior to the Baron Davis coming the NY. Teague is an inconsistent bum, one playoff series does not a fantasy player make. Have you seen his preseason numbers? Delfino is the definition of waiver wire,  fools gold- I' m not going there this year. 
Tyreke in the 5th round? ? ? You must be smoking some really strong stuff brother. I agree he is reach in early/mid second round, but early 3rd he is steal: pts, rebs, dimes, steals. He is  the Kings- with a mature Cousins in the post and Jimmer on the perimeter  he could getting close to averaging 8+ dimes/ game.
As a Knicks fan, I was bummed that we broke the bank w Amare, but if he availible at the end of round 1, one must pull the trigger. Finally, no one is drafting Steph in 1st round. The boy is still groing and hard worker- Marc Jackson  will give big minutes. Lee is healthy and ready for assists. My only concern is bum ankle. 
Do you let him pass you by in the third round as you did Tyrke and Amare? 
I think I want to be part of your  league next year!

Goat,

This post is for roto leagues.  If you read the title, you would understand that.  Check back in a month and see how my sleepers are doing.  You may be surprised.  With Toney Douglas, I posted this two weeks ago.  If you read the comment, it specifically states that his value depends on what happened with the Knicks roster.  No, I didn't draft him in any leagues, but I am not drafting Baron Davis either.  Carlos Delfino may be waiver fodder in head to head leagues, but not roto. 

As for Teague, I am wondering, did you see his preseason numbers?  They do nothing but encourage me.  First of all, he only played in 1 game.  In it, no starter played more than 21 minutes.  Teague played 18.  In that time, he scored 8 points on 4-8, got 2 boards 2 assists and 1 steal.  Projected out to the PT he is likely to get, that is 16-4-4-2.  That is a very strong roto line and would even play in head to head. 

FYI, Steph Curry is not going in the first round of head to head drafts, but his ADP is CBS roto drafts was 10 at the time I posted.  Yahoo ranked him #9 overall, and since everything they do is based of roto, their rankings carry a lot more weight here.  I have followed expert leagues and in every roto draft I have seen, Curry has been off the board between 9 and 14, in other words, late first round or early second. 

Amar'e is going around the same time as Curry, and yes, I passed in every league.  Give me Al Jefferson, Josh Smith, Pau Gasol, Lamarcus Alddrige or even Melo over Amar'e.  They are all going around the same time and are all better roto values this year. 

As for Tyreke, his counting stats are awesome, but he hurts your team in both percentage categories and turnovers.  Yahoo has him ranked at 62, which I agree is far too low.  I was targeting him late fourth or early 5th.  If you take a player like that in roto ahead of guys like Rudy Gay, you will lose every time. 

Next time, make sure you do your homework and that you know what you are talking about before you attack my post.

In a 12 team H2H, I got curry 23rd (11th pick of R2). We start 4 guards. He is a stud, and when healthy he drains points, and will have assists and steals by the truckload. I also took Afflalo in Round 10, and he is being phased out. His stats are declining with every game. So I know from my team, you are 0-for-2.

Well, taking Curry 23rd is a lot different than taking him 10th.  If you read my comment, I said that he will produce closer to third round value than he will first.  I may not have passed on him at 23 either.  There is a big difference between picking him at those 2 spots. 

Also, Curry has already missed 1 game to injury and will miss at least 2 more due to his latest ankle tweak.  Since these ankle tweaks seem to be a weekly occurance and the latest is the worst yet, you may be lucky to get 3/4 of the season from him.  If he misses 15+ games he will bust from pick 23 too. 
 
With any "bust" player, there is always a point where he falls far enough that you draft him anyway.  For me with Stephon Curry, it would have been somewhere between 25 and 30 depending on who else was there.  You got pretty good value and it may or may not work.  We will know for sure later.  Had you taken him at 10, you would be singing a different tune. 

As for Afflalo, Andre Miller seems to have taken away from him big time.  I did not see that coming.  He may turn it around yet, but these guys are late round picks for a reason.  If you are pinning your hopes and dreams on them, you will be disappointed.

As for my other picks, Paul George is a top 40 player so far and Jarret Jack has been the top performer for the Hornets with some impressive lines.  Toney Douglass, Jeff Teague and Ben Gordon have all been top 100 players in 8 category leagues, so they have beaten their ADP so far.  D'Andre Jordan is 3rd in the NBA in blocked shots and Carlos Delfino has shown flashes of brilliance and stretches of horrid play, but has averaged out positively since missing 2 games. 

The jury is still out on Jared Dudley, but in his defense, the entire Suns team has been pretty terrible in a couple of their games. 

As for the busts, A'mare is nowhere near top 12 value as he has already missed 2 games and established that he is Carmelo's Robin.  Contrary to your assertion, Steph Curry is absolutely a bust so far as a top 15 pick due to the injury issues.  Tyreke Evans is ranked below all of my sleeper picks in 9 category leagues.  Even Delfino has outpaced him in 3 games.  Before tonight's games, Evans came in at 257 in the Y! ranker. 

Tony Parker is barely inside the top 100 as expected, although he may see a boost with Ginobli out.  Carlos Boozer is producing at a value close to his ADP, so if you took that risk you are breaking even for now. 

I am sorry if you went with the weakest pick of my sleeper list, but all in all, things are looking pretty good with these predictions.  I was on target with 12 out of 15 based on early season results.  

LOL.  I didn't even notice that you said you drafted Stephon Curry and Arron Afflalo on your head to head team.  If you were paying attention, you would see these are roto rankings.  Too funny.   

If Iman Shumpert continues to play this well, he will no longer be a sleeper but a star. Toney Douglas is really struggling which should mean additonal time for Shumpert. Btw, figured I would share this with fellow fantasy NBA fans. Draft Street is offering a FREE Fantasy Basketball Event this Thursday, I’ve done it before and it’s really awesome. You draft a team for one night and can win cash if your team places. Def worth checking out. http://www.draftstreet.com/l/nbafre
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Agreed on Iman Shumpert.  I picked him up on both my teams and am loving the all around production despite the poor shooting.  Toney Douglas is a drop for anybody who still owns him.  Baron Davis will only take more PT away.

I have Ben Gordon on my team and have the same assumption as you.  So far it's not paying off...  Hopefully soon.