Head to Head: Luck or Skill

There has been a debate between several owners in our league for years, is winning a head to head league luck or is it skill.  One side states head to head is all about luck and it's all about who's guys get hot at the right time.  The other side says it's skill from assembling the right collection of players to picking up the right/hot players off waivers during the playoffs/championship.

I am aware that some of you may say it's both, but as far as the poll is concearned I'm only giving two choices.  I'd also like to hear your input on the subject so let the debate begin.

Here are my quick thoughts on H2H. (my league is a H2H weekly 14 team 40 man rosters, keep all minors and up to 13 majors)

1. Weekly H2H requires more "skill" than daily !  (this should spur debate) In a daily H2H, it's about filling empty lineup spots effectively on Mon, Thur. Some skill involved there, certainly, but also about someone's efficiency at add/drops.
Weekly H2H requires serious planning for not only the upcoming matchup, but 2 or 3 down the road.

2. H2H leagues' results more closley resemble MLB results. ie Philadelphia had the best record last year, but does anyone know how they ranked in 5x5 categories? And what makes MLB the greatest sport in the world? Any team can beat any team on any given day.

Your question of "Head to Head: Luck or Skill?" is exactly like asking "St.Louis Cardinals 2011: Luck or Skill?"
My reply: Does it matter? They're the World Champions !!! Best in the Game !!  They deserve and get all the respect they've earned.

3. You really need to have solid league settings in order to best make your league about skill and NOT about who manages their IP limits or AB limits best. Manipulating league rules to win can be a lot of fun, but that is not the kind of skill that should win fantasy championships.

4. PLAYOFFS. Proviso: I was the Cardinals in my league last year. Would I say I got lucky? Absolutely. However, I also made a couple moves early in the year that really won the league for me, ie a huge deal for Hamilton giving up Ackley, Myers, Parker, Wheeler. Now I wish I had those guys back, but Hamilton was our league playoff MVP. There was also a shrewd pickup of Melancon, from my cell phone in Disneyworld while on vacation. Pissed off my wife and cost me $8 in roaming charges (I'm Canadian), but I snuck out of our room at 5am to scour the news, and sure enough Hochevar was getting shut down. A small thing? absolutely. But neccessary to win. I got lucky for sure, in that my opponent had lost Lawrie, had a couple other guys banged up and I snuck through for the title. But I worked hard.
In our 14 team league only six teams play for the championship (the other 8 play for drafts' position), so that is important too. If any of those six won, they earned it. They put themselves in the playoffs and no matter what happens, their skill got them the opportunity to win the championship.


My short answer to your question is SKILL.
My long answer I guess is that H2H is a fantastic style to play because it more closely resembles real baseball, where anything can happen on any given day. Some would call that luck. I would call it the greatest game in the world.

"picking up the right/hot players off waivers during the playoffs/championship"

I don't feel this is either luck or skill. I mean, any player can get hot, but who knows how long the streak will last. That's luck. But the act of actively scouring the FA pool isn't even overly skillful, it's simply a time commitment to the league.

But to stick to your polarized poll, I feel it's much more skill than luck. Draft day and the strategies to use is important to establish your chances. Sure, luck can play a factor (injuries especially), but it's the skill--how you build your team and react with a plan--that determines your likelihood to make the playoffs and wins.

Maybe I'm feeling nostalgic because I just watched Moneyball last night, but everyone criticized Beane for not actually winning the World Series. As everyone knows, anything can happen in one series. But Beane established a strategy to get him to the playoffs over and over, giving himself chances to win.

I see the regular season as skill. The playoffs are certainly more luck, as when I lost Jered Weaver's last start of the year because the Angels shut him down; a below-average night from him would've won me the week.

I think you're right Varrys. It probably is more a time commitment vs a skill.
Example:
Pineda to the Yankees.
Some say immediately: great for him, more wins, better lineup, he'll be solid #2.
Others say immediately: move to hitters park from pitchers park, fly ball pitcher...trouble

The "skilled" are the ones who put in more time and effort into the equation. They likely come out with some variation of the above, looking back throughout Pineda's history and coming up with a more likely scenario.

What I love is that he could walk to the mound for the first time , have a ton of fans holding "Jesus Saves" signs and he could turn into Javier Vazquez. Does that make the first group more "skilled"?
It's an unpredictable game and that puts luck into it.

But over the course of time probability usually wins out, the best teams win, the best players perform. It's just which ones and when that can be random.
Thanks, fun discussion

once a h2h league gets down to the final 4 teams, you can just about throw away the first 5 months of the year and really just about any team can win it. all 4 teams are going to be pretty good. all 4 teams are going to be interested and active. 1 bad outing from your ace or a couple days of .150 batting average and the #1 seed can easily lose to the 4,5, or 6 seed. In roto, you have the entire years worth of stats so 1 bad day or an off week late in the season and the best team will still win.
Now if you have no playoffs in h2h you eliminate alot of the 1 week factor, but almost no h2h leagues work like that. and thats not to say that luck doesn't factor in in roto leagues as well. 1 league last year 4 teams were within 2 points of first place on the final day of the year so whoever had the luckiest day was going to win. But the biggest difference to me is if 1 team dominates the entire year in roto, with a month to go they are almost certainly  going to win. In a h2h, it only takes 1 off week or 1 week of an opponent having a lights out week and that first 5 months of dominating is lost.  

The reason h2h is so popular is the final month the 6th place playoff team has a legit chance to win, in roto they likely don't. But that also means the best team doesn't win h2h as often as the best team in roto. If thats called luck or the nature of the setup is up to you. Certainly the playoff teams resting players and pitchers pitching 3-4 innings the final week throws a wrench into the finals in h2h leagues opening up a bigger luck factor.  In a 1 week winner take all luck has to play a factor, but that doesn't mean skill is out the window; its just the difference of 1 week of stats vs an entire season

First, let me say that I suspect that nearly everyone has a certain built in bias about this issue.   It’s common for people to favor the version of something that they most often participate in – hopefully, we tend to participate is the version we like best.

 

That being said, I strongly perfer H2H over roto for a couple of reasons.   I also prefer daily lineup leagues as opposed to weekly, but I get back to that later.   First, I don’t think roto style fantasy simulate real sports in any way.   The idea that a single stolen base has the same virtual value as a win doesn’t seem realistic at all.   If the H2H scoring system is set up right, and that’s a big “if”, then you can balance out what it takes to win to a much better extent than you can in roto.  

 

Another major difference is that many roto leagues aren’t broken into divisions, so it seems likely that fewer teams are going to be within range to overtake an opponent for a playoff spot as the season winds down.   If the league champion is based just on the season long category totals you’re dealing with something that not one single “real” sport uses.   There’s no timeliness associated with when a batter gets a hit or a pitcher gets a save or win – it’s just season long totals.  Ugh.

 

There is also the notion that the “best” team doesn’t always win in H2H, but is much more likely to in roto.   Again, the real world of sports is practically based on the fact that upsets happen.   Luck is a big part of real sports, and to me therefore has a valid place in fantasy sports.   No one here has said that luck is bad, but in the H2H  leagues I’ve played in I have certainly seen guys crying that the better team didn’t win.   My thought is that if you want the better team to always win just play roto stlye and end the season after the draft.   Just poll the league and see who has the best team.

 

Now back to weekly vs daily lineups – again, I admit a bias toward daily.   In weekly lineup leagues very little attention is paid to the actual matchups in the MLB schedule.   Most fantasy owners just start their same hitters and pitchers week after week – making their bench players almost valueless.   In a daily league the owner gets to choose which 2B or 3B he’s going to play that day based partally on the pitcher his players will be facing.   On the pitching side, weekly lineups really open up the can of worms of the 2 start pitcher – another major obstacle in getting fantasy baseball to resemble MLB baseball.   If your league figures out a way to level the playing field regarding the number of pitchers you get to start during any given week, then you come out of it with real H2H competition.

 

The bottom line is that everyone is going to have an opinion.   If anything about the version of fantasy you’re playing bothers you, then try a different league.   CBS has hundereds of thousands of leagues, and as you can tell from the postings on this Message Board, there are ample opportunities to find every kind of league you could hope for.   Find what works for you and go for it.

It is ridiculous to say any style is mostly luck.  I guess you can consider it lucky to play against a bunch of morons that have no clue.  Even injuries to good players can be overcome if you make solid moves.  While injuries may be unlucky they can also be unskillfull drafting and waiver pick ups.  Every year some injury prone players are drafted way too early and always miss a chunk or all of the season.  I lost a playoff week last year that I thought was a lock.  The other guys lineup put up ridiculous numbers while my pitchers were skipped and every day players developed injuries after lineups were locked in.  Lucky?  I am sure the other guy would say he expected 48 points from a part time shortstop or that he knew of my guys injuries so I should have put a better lineup out there.

One last point.  This argument usually comes from people that harp about how roto is the skill game and h2h is for rookies.  It is true that beginers shouldn't try roto but competitive h2h leagues also take skill to win.

I was in a 10 team 26 man roster H2H league my team dominated i hate was placed first in every statistic had 1000 more total points than the next best guy, so i would agree this is is partly skill. But first round of the playoffs the kid i played scored 450 points, didn't score more than 300 all year h2h is strictly a luck game. I had the most points in the league even after not playing the final round and getting screwed over the first round of the playoffs. 

Also, people in H2h drop people when they have one bad week, I picked up Ian Kennedy and Cole Hamels of waivers in week two, Tell me that's not lucky.

H2H is strictly a luck game with hardly any skill involved, if you want to play and use your skill play 5x5 roto, and for those of you who can't win a roto game play H2H.

 

Hahahaha, KingMasonTheGr8   You have to play in leagues where Hamels and Kennedy aren't dropped before you can give any advice about skill games.

H2H is strictly a luck game with hardly any skill involved, if you want to play and use your skill play 5x5 roto, and for those of you who can't win a roto game play H2H.


That's about the most absurd statement I have heard in a while on this board.

Here's my suggestion before you can chime in with these broad-brushed statements:

Play in a league with more than 10 teams.
Join an established dynasty/keeper league with committed long-term owners.
Pay to play...public leagues are a source of amusement, yes, but they're nothing like competitive leagues.
Try to go with a league with at least 40 roster spots...it's a lot more challenging.

I'm not trying to criticize you, just your unfounded statements. My suggestions will broaden your knowledge, increase your skills and hopefully put you in a league that you can enjoy for many many years. There's nothing wrong with 10 team, public leagues....don't misunderstand....but this game has way more to offer than that. Those are just the tip of the iceberg as far as what fantasy leagues are about. It's time for you to take the next step !!
 
           

Good call philabuster.  King mason plays with a bunch of dopes so he decides all h2h leagues are luck.  I have never figured out why some people want to play the easiest competition.  I would rather play with good competitive owners than brag how I dominated some morons. 

I've refrained from commenting, but I am reading and enjoying all of your comments.  And FYI, our league is building towards a dynasty league.  By building I mean we started out by keeping 3 players and every year we've add another keeper.  We're up to 8 keepers now.  It just seemed like a fair way to do it being not everyone was one the same skill level when we started. 
This has nothing to do with the debate at hand, just a little back story.  

I now return you to the Head to Head: Luck or Skill debate already in progress.    

I do not think that its a great league if the entire payout is provided based on head to head playoff. The regular season winner is as much, if not more, an indicator of the skill of the participants. I think the best way to answer this question is to look at history. If you go to FSRU.com and look at their Fantasy Baseball League Winners page, or any site that provides league history, you will see that there are a lot of the same names listed as league winners. If the better players can do better than average, year after year, than clearly it is a skill based game.

This will be my 10th year in a H2H Commissioner League.  We are twelve teams with 9 of the core intact and with with a roster of 31. 6 keepers including 2 rookie/2nd year players, we also require an eligiblity qualified (20 games) CF.  With the large draft of 300 players, FA's are limited in quality.  Upgrades to your roster often cost you your draft picks in the next season.  We have had only 2 multiple winners, I have made the Championship series twice and have come away empty.   All of this points to primarily skill, the draft, the ability to trade.  I recognize the luck factor and how injuries play a role.  But skilled players can overcome bad luck.  Incidently the prize is a large trophy (no cash) with a wood base to which an engraved plaque is added depicting the new Champ.  The Cup has resided in Ohio,  Fla., NY, with Calif. Vegas, and New Orleans as not yet visited sites.

in the matter of setting, i could initially argue both. i've lucked into the playoffs with a losing record one year based on the skills i used to accumulate points to snag a wild card spot due to league rankings. i also won my league once i got into the playoffs too lol

as example, i am currently playing a H2H game with two teams in seperate leagues in basketball (slight apples to oranges comparison, but similar in game style unlike football - a set number of players playing a set number of games within the confines of a week).

in league A i am currently 5-0 and in 4th place overall in points accumulated season to date.

in league B i am currently 2-3 and in 5th place overall in points accumulated season to date.

i play the same players on both teams, week in, week out, no deviation. 

SKILL is on my side, proof being that week in week out i consistantly point very high. i am very confident in my evaluations and assembling the best team and it shows in my overall performance in both leagues, and my h2h in league A.

LUCK would have it in league B that in all three weeks that i lost, i was pitted against three teams that that particular week assembled a team that scored highest that particular week, not just higher than me but highest total for the entire league. of all three opponents, they are all 3-2 and rank 3rd, 12th, and 16th overall respectively. on any other given week, i probably beat them with what i have watch them field and point.

i can argue that LUCK may be with me when i need something here or there to fall in my favor for a win, but it is SKILL that gives me the foundation to be afforded the benefit of luck.

you can argue luck allowed St. Louis to sneak into the playoffs last year, but it was skill that got them to be World Series Champs.

good post ravenOne.

I still think if you eliminate the playoffs in a h2h league you pretty much wipe out most of the luck argument and the owner with the most skill/best draft-team will have the best record  at seasons end. If you use a playoffs, you do need some luck the final couple weeks to beat the other good teams. There is just as much skill needed to put together the leagues best team in h2h as roto, the best team just doesn't win nearly as often in the playoff h2h format

Over the long haul skill will beat luck but in any given week luck can prevail over skill. Hitting slumps and hot streaks cannot be predicted with absolute certainty. But in the long run luck evens out and over the course of a season skill will prevail.

Has there ever been luck involved in the MLB World Series?   Duh, yea I guess so.

"...I still think if you eliminate the playoffs in a h2h league you pretty much wipe out most of the luck argument and the owner with the most skill/best draft-team will have the best record  at seasons end. ..."

Fast Dogs,

You can say that about the actual MLB Playoffs too (minus the overhyped Yankees)!

Of course there is a random factor in fantasy sports (luck), but that same type of random chance occurs in any sport, or life in general for that matter.  I also like the argument that it is not skill, but time commitments. I am a skilled professional at my job, but the only reason I am skilled is that I have taken the time to learn it well (just pointing out that time commitment = skill).

Anyway, the reason H2H is getting more popular, in my opinon, is that it mirrors real life better. Epic come backs, the matchup of the oppenent you are playing that week can be more important than the overall strengthe of your team  (I have lost or not made the play offs with one of the top scoring teams on occasion and while it sucks it is the unlucky factor of my matchups).... Kind of like the real world.

I think the big difference between roto and H2H is how boring roto can be for teams that do not have a shot and how quickly a bottom team will lose interest and make it even easier for a top team to cruise.... That lack of an  unskilled luck factor that the roto champions hang their hats on is the very reason that it is easier to win a roto league if you are a top team than it is to win a H2H league.  

Give me the random chance factor 7 days a week and twice on Sunday otherwise it is like watching paint dry.

Great thread.  I am seeing a lot of good points on both sides of the debate here.  Many of the proponents of head to head, however, are highlighting what they like about head to head and not really answering the original question. 

I must say that I prefer roto because I do not like having my entire season's worth of work come down to 2 weeks, but head to head certainly provides more entertainment value over the course of the season. 

As for the question, head to head formats absolutely require skill to win.  First, you have to negotiate the regular season and make the playoffs.  Next, you have to have a core roster that gives you a chance to win once you get there, and lastly, you have to make the right moves as far as pick-ups and start/sits to put your team over the top. 

Can skill be trumped by lady luck?  Absolutely, but the same can happen in roto leagues.  Just not so suddenly.  If you drafted Carl Crawford, Alex Rodriguez, Buster Posey and Adam Dunn with your first 4 picks, you may have liked your chances on opening day but would have been buried in an unsurmountable hole be the all-star break. 

Bottom line is that you need some breaks to go your way in any format, but you aren't winning without at least a little skill. 

 Depends, if we are talking about head to head 5x5  roto, then skill all the way.
I have played this format for 3 years and never had a problem changing my team to address  any injuries or shortcommings.

My favorite league that i play with my closest friends is a h2h points league. This league is a crapshoot from week to week honestly, and forget about the playoffs. Playoffs are all about luck.