Head to Head: Luck or Skill

i dont know if is luck or skill but the same guy won the league 2 years in a row and if yuo see my line up is way better than hes line up and also got better pitching but one thing he really does well is adding of the waivers and pick the hot players obviously hes smart but so f...... lucky too

The answer is that it is more skill than luck.

Skill:

1. Drafting your team is skill. Mock drafting to get a feel for when players are going to go off the board and staying focused and getting the best players left in the latter rounds. I have won the championship twice in five years and the late round picks have been key. I also avoid "studs" with injury histories. I want players who will give me 150 games per season. Josh Hamilton, Vernon Wells, Ricky Weeks, Cole Hamels, etc. can kill you.

2. Setting a weekly lineup. Paying attention to matchups (both pitching and hitting).

3.  Trading is a skill. I tend to initiate many trades by constantly examining my opponents lineups, injuries, tendencies and record. Catch them when they are in need and motivated. Also, know when to sell high. Two years ago I traded Johathan Broxton right before his meltdown, last year I traded Jair Jurrgens right before the AS break.


4.  Protecting your position in the waiver order. Once I reach the top spot in the waiver order, I don't waste it. Someone will make a huge mistake along the way. Craig Kimbrel got dropped after blowing two saves and I was at the top of the waiver order. Obviously, Kimbrel helped me greatly the rest of the way. 


5. Doing your homework is skill. Read everything you can from Rotoworld to other peoples posts and everything in between.


6. FA pick ups is a skill. Having a full scout team and watching them closely helps minimize FA pick up mistakes.


Luck:


1.  Avoiding injuries. I have been burned and have been lucky. I had Kendrys Morales in 2010. Oops... I had Choo last year. Oops.          
 2. Playoffs is luck. Who is getting shut down, having your best pitcher getting two starts. No control, just luck.       

how can winning a league that competes for 25 weeks be luck?  i'm no mathematician, but the odds would be something vegas would
love to take wagers. knowing players' historical stats and gauging future potential, analyzing matchups, being aware of players'
injury history, et al. ...this is what makes the game so fascinating to most of us. if all it took where spinning a wheel to see who
is on your team, blindly throwing a dart on your next pick, most of us would never join a head to head league. most of us believe
we have the mental ability to compete on the highest level. when you succeed, it's a neat high.

period comes down to having the most consistent players and no injuries.  injuries can end anyone season, especially if you have multiple ones at key positions.  in h2h you can ride one player one week and bench him the next as well or take the chance that he will continue his hot hitting or pitching.  but its sorta like playing the lottery....who knows whose going to win

This message has been removed by the administrator.

I think roto requires a bit more skill than h2h. The object in roto is too have the best team for the season. the object in h2h is making the play-offs, which can be done in some leagues with below .500 teams. Once you're in the playoffs, anything can happen in one week, a mangers decisions or rainouts for example can cause you to lose that week. You have no control over those type things...they're plain ole luck. In roto you must be the best for 5 months. In h2h just gotta be the best for two weeks. H2H reduces the season too 2 weeks, so you have to ask yourself...Who deserves to be a champion more the guy that's worked at it five months, or the guy that's won two weeks ?

It is unquestionably.... SKILL.  Strategy is the key to winning a head to head league, including the ability to know when and how to change a strategy that is going wrong and how to make the necessarry moves to put yourself in position to win.  Baseball isnt about winning 162 games, it is about winning enough to make the playoffs and preparing your team to compete when you get there.  The same should be said for fantasy baseball, it doesnt matter who wins the most regular season games; the one standing at the end is the champ.  Have you ever thought that some teams' strategies are not to win the regular season....  I have very rarely seen league champions go on to win the tournament, not because of luck, but they did not prepare themselves with the right players to enter the tournament. 

I choose my team each week based on who they are going to be playing against. For instance, I'd not have two power-hitters from the same MLB team in my line-up and then select the SP from the MLB team these power-hitters are opposing so they can hit him all over the park, am I?
The draft is where the skill begins in that it's wise to try and select groups of two or three hitters from the same MLB team and also a selection of six or seven starting pitchers so as to have the choice who to play as to not compete against your own hitters. Some people draft by the highest rank available to them, yawn and yay for considered thinking , but with a little sense it's far better to try and match groups of hitters from the same team with their own team pitcher(s) as then there is no opposition. If this can't be achieved then with a selection of pitchers from other teams it's also easy to bench the SP if ever he is opposing the team(s) of your groups of hitters.
It has to come down to the choices made so therefore can not be luck. The only luck involved is used by the clueless who only draft the highest available ranks just because they have no sense to research otherwise.

Interesting Waynum.
I'd be curious as to how many people have employed this draft strategy. My presumption would be that it would lead to failure, but I'm curious enough to hear more.
I wouldn't call those who pick best player available "clueless". It likely is the BEST strategy. All I play is H2H, and the idea of having a few guys from the same team, is ideal for those 7 matchup weeks against lousy rotations. Unfortunately, there is always the flipside, when they face 5 top arms in the same scoring period. Adding starters from the same team to your plan? That's bold.
To me, I try to simplify. Grab the best players you can at the best prices you can. In H2H I would assume more balance is needed, not less.
Interesting. I do "enjoy" having an ace with that team's closer on my roster. But, that's a personal thing that I don't think necessarily is great for my team, but it's fun to gamble on that big scoring day.
Thanks for that insight/thoughts ...would love to hear more (we might need a separate thread)

Great thread.  I just read randyking7’s post.  Thought it was great.  Have a question for everyone.

Randyking7 said “The idea that a single stolen base has the same virtual value as a win doesn’t seem realistic at all.   If the H2H scoring system is set up right, and that’s a big “if”, then you can balance out what it takes to win to a much better extent than you can in roto”

My question is:  how do you suggest weighting the scoring categories to balance out what it takes to win? 

I’m setting up and commishing my first league this year.  I opted for head2head with non-traditional 6x6 scoring (league is also an  auction draft & allows 3 keepers).  Here are my categories:

Offense: HR, RBI, SB, AVG, OBP*, Error*,
Pitching: ERA, WHIP, K/9*, HLD, SV, Quality Starts*.

I went with OBP, Errors, and Quality Starts because I wanted scoring to more closely resemble players’ individual contributions.

Again, how would you recommend weighting these categories to accomplish what randyking7 suggested? 

CBS’ default weighting in CBS is 1.0.   Right now I’ve weighted Quality Starts at 2.0.  Errors & OBP are both weighted at 1.5.  Everything else is weighted at 1.   The idea being, here, that getting QS from your rotation (especially in H2H with daily lineup changes), getting on base more than opponents, and committing fewer errors are keys to winning. 

FYI – I still have 4 spots left in my league.  Fees are cheap at $20….most of that goes to cover what CBS charges.  if you're interested, send me a message.

Thanks in advance for your feedback!

Personally I think it's a mix of both skill and luck, which mirrors real-life baseball, and really any sport.  Of course any team in H2H can get hot during a certain week and beat anybody, but by the end of the year the better teams seem to work their way to the top of the standings.  Which brings me to the playoffs......the main reason I prefer H2H over roto.  There's nothing like the frantic last few weeks of a tight playoff race, clinching that playoff spot, then riding a hot team to the championship......and that's how real-life MLB works.  Good teams hang around, get hot at the right time and surge in to the playoffs (see Colorado Rockies in '07).

Being an uber-competitive fantasy freak, I honestly find roto to be a pretty boring format.  I need that rush of competing against somebody each week, not a drawn out competition that lasts over five months. 

Also, in roto, I've found that the bottom teams might have a tendency to give up when they realize they've got no shot at winning, and sometimes that can happen as early as the All-Star break.  At least in H2H they've got something to play for each week, no matter how far back they are in the standings.  And they can possibly play the role of spoiler.....another part of H2H to keep people interested in their team.

I'm not dogging roto, after all it's still part of the greatness of fantasy baseball.  To each his own, everybody has their own preference.

Playoffs in H2H are totally about skill.

As a matter of fact, this is where absolutely the most skill is required out of any part of fantasy baseball.

You say, oh my second round pitcher CC Sabathia got shut down after 5 innings in the playoffs and my first place team lost - luck!

I say, when you drafted CC at the BEGINNING of the YEAR, you should have thought about the fact that he plays for the Yankees, and as such will tend to get shut down at the end of the year if he's gonna be needed for a playoff run. Therefore, you put more importance on a pitcher like Kershaw or Felix who play for shit****ty teams that never shut them down in week 25 or 26. Skill. Planning. Preparation.

How many of you know that this year there are only 2 teams with 14 games minimum scheduled for weeks 24 and 25, the weeks of the playoffs? Of course, we dont know who will be a two start pitcher(and the pitchers on those teams suck), but isnt it nice to know your hitters will have a full slate in the most important weeks of the year...Not to mention closers having 7 opportunities to close out games. Skill. Planning. Preparation.

Once the playoffs get here, of course there will be rookies coming up who are red hot, and Veterans who are wearing down or whos managers want to rest and you need to adjust your lineups accordingly. Knowing who to start and who to sit is crucial, and is totally skill. But you HAVE to PAY ATTENTION, yes even after 5 months of baseball when your mind is numb, unlike 5x5 where you draft and forget.

I used to focus more on the pitching aspect and try to make sure I had eight SP, one who was also a RP, and two RP and the reason I did this was because I believed this was where the main points came from. This year I've altered my opinion and in the one team I've already drafted still ended up with seven SP, one who is also a RP, and two RP but the reason for this is because several of my hitters play in multiple positions and provide adequate cover for every position in case of injuries.
In the same league I mentioned having completed my draft in there are four players who have put their entire teams 'On The Block' and seeing as this is before even a Spring Training ball has been hit to know who's playing well or badly then I would indeed call their selections based purely on who the ratings deem best as clueless because why else would they be looking to trade?
I know last year, and the year before, that by having enough SP I could pick players to avoid having my own hitters against my own pitchers, or at least the majority of the time, but by having pairings of hitters from the same teams it became easier still and better yet when managing to couple those pairings up with a SP, or two, from the same team, too. To do this certainly requires drafting the star SP in the first pick and then hoping to luck that on the next one/two picks that the big bats from the same team still remain. That's the strategy for such a tactic I use, anyway, and not only does it work well but it also goes a big way towards avoiding playing your own hitter(s) against your own pitcher(s). It's not always possible, of course, but when it comes right and those types of teams can be formed then it really works well........provided the team(s) the players and pitchers come from also play well .

Waynum,

While I can understand why it might be more fun to avoid having your hitters and pitchers avoid each other, that is hardly a practical strategy.  In daily leagues I have often been torn about that very choice and have at times considered benching my normal hitter when he faces a pitcher on my own team.  The idea is that you want everyone to have a big day, and it is unlikely that your pitcher will be lights out and your hitter will still have a big night at the plate when facing each other.

The reality is, however, that your pitcher is going to give up runs over the course of the season.  Some nights he pitches a gem, but even the best starters get shelled from time to time.  Your hitters will also have 0-fer days at the plate.  In the long run, you win out by having the best players in your line-up on a daily basis, since they will amass the best numbers over the course of 162 games.  You don't gain over the long run by benching your stud hitter because he is facing your staff ace.  After all, how do you feel if your pitcher gets shelled and the hitter on your bench had a big game?  Don't worry about your own hitters playing your own pitchers.  Play your studs and play the fringe guys who have the best match-ups.  If your pitcher faces your hitter, then so be it.  They can still both help your team on the same night, and hopefully at least one does.    

As for the idea of not drafting the best available player to amass players from the same team, there is no way that strategy can be effective unlss you get very lucky as far as having the right players fall to you in the right spots.    Sure, if you draft 6 Rangers, you will have nights where it goes very well for you, but if you pass on a superior player to draft one of those Rangers, you will lose out in the long run.  The idea is to assemble to best overall roster you can, so why limit yourself by only drafting from a few teams?

  
     
      

I'm not even sure who I'm replying to now.....it began with someone questioning why I called some people clueless as they chose their players blindly and based solely on their CBSSports ratings then going on to place their whole teams On The Block but now we seem to be discussing my strategies.
I can't deny that sometimes my strategy goes wrong, it's impossible to tell me of one that doesn't, but I'm happy with it as it works well enough for me; the original question posted, however, was whether H2H is skill or luck and I say it's skill due to the players you choose for your team yet for those cuckoos who choose blindly based on the rankings stated then surely all these people can do is to rely on luck that the numbers assigned to those players don't cause their own pitchers competing with their own hitters. 

Yes, plus, of course, if the hitter is going to have a big hit against the pitcher then it'll happen whether he's benched or not and does at least give back the points lost by the pitcher as they'll be gained by the hitter.

 I would have to say skill also. Its the combination of crunching numbers and putting the best lineuo out there to score. Your best player may do terrible agsainst a certain pitcher/hitter and it takes skill to recognize this and the brains to pull him from your lineup and put in a less populsr player that may put you in a better position that week to win.

http://baseball.fantasysports.yahoo
.com/b1/register/tos?league_id=89128&password=playball

20 team mixed h2h. ready 4 the challenge

Short answer is it's both. With a long season like MLB it takes more skill than luck but it also takes dedication. I almost compare it to poker. You can control you decisions but you cannot control the output of the players any given week. All you can do is plug in the best players at the right time with the best matchups. If they flop or the other team has a few players that get hot out of no where then that is misfortune that you couldn't control. So like I said it's a mix of both.

For example, last year I had the best record and scored the most points. Made it all the way to the finals but one of my players got hurt the beginning of the week and his player (Ellsbury that fuck****er) went off the last week of the season and hit a grand slam in his last at bat to over take my team for the championship. So anyone that says it's all skill obviously hasn't been playing fantasy sports long enough. I say skill makes you competitve. Combine that with good luck and you are the champion of that league. Plain and simple.

Let me ask you this.

Is the baseball season a marathon or is it 26 weekly sprints?

Answer this question and you might understand what H2H really is.

Its hard enough to pick the players to perform during a season, and now you get graded every week?

The cream rises to the top in roto, in H2H, luck is a huge on usually determining factor